牛津经济研究院-英国在线零售税的经济影响（英）-2021.11-46正式版.docx

OXFORDECONOMICSTHEECONOMICIMPACTOFANONLINERETAILSALESTAXINTHEUKANINDEPENDENTREPORTFORAMAZONUKNOVEMBER2020OXFORDECONOMICSABOUTOXFORDECONOMICSOxfordEconomicswasfoundedin1981asacommercialventurewithOxfordUniversity'sbusinesscollegetoprovideeconomicforecastingandmodellingtoUKcompaniesandfinancialinstitutionsexpandingabroad.Sincethen,wehavebecomeoneoftheworld,sforemostindependentglobaladvisoryfirms,providingreports,forecastsandanalyticaltoolsonmorethan200countries,250industrialsectors,and7,000citiesandregions.Ourbest-in-classglobaleconomicandindustrymodelsandanalyticaltoolsgiveusanunparalleledabilitytoforecastexternalmarkettrendsandassesstheireconomic,sialandbusinessimpact.HeadquarteredinOxford,England,withregionalcentresinNewYork,London,Frankfurt,andSingapore,OxfordEconomicshasofficesacrosstheglobeinBelfast,Boston,CapeTown,Chicago,Dubai,Dublin,HongKong,LosAngeles,Melbourne,MexicoCity1Milan,Paris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,andToronto.Weemploy400full-timestaff,includingmorethan250professionaleconomists,industryexperts,andbusinesseditors-oneofthelargestteamsofmacroeconomistsandthoughtleadershipspecialists.Ourglobalteamishighlyskilledinafullrangeofresearchtechniquesandthoughtleadershipcapabilitiesfromeconometricmodelling,scenarioframing,andeconomicimpactanalysistomarketsurveys,casestudies,expertpanels,andwebanalytics.OxfordEconomicsisakeyadvisertocorporate,financialandgovernmentdecision-makersandthoughtleaders.Ourworldwideclientbasenowcomprisesover1,500internationalorganisations,includingleadingmultinationalcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions;keygovernmentbodiesandtradeassociations;andtopuniversities,consultancies,andthinktanks.NOVEMBER2020AlldatashownintablesandchartsareOxfordEconomics,owndata,exceptwhereotherwisestatedandcitedinfootnotes,andarecopyright©OxfordEconomicsLtd.ThisreportisconfidentialtoAmazonUKandmaynotbepublishedordistributedwithouttheirpriorwrittenpermission.Themodellingandresultspresentedherearebasedoninformationprovidedbythirdparties,uponwhichOxfordEconomicshasreliedinproducingitsreportandforecastsingoodfaith.AnysubsequentrevisionorupdateofthosedataW川affecttheassessmentsandprojectionsshown.Todiscussthereportfurtherpleasecontact:HenryWorthington:hworthinatonOxfordEconomics4Millbank,LondonSW1P3JA,UKTel:+442039108000人OXFORDTABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary11. Introduction42. Howweassesstheimpactofanonlineretailsalestax52.1 Analyticalframework52.2 Policyassumptions62.3 Forecastconditionsin202263. Theeconomicimpactofanonlineretailsalestax93.1 Declineinonlinesales93.2 Lossinconsumerwelfareandsuppliers*margins93.3 "Revenue-equivalent"alternatives124. Distributionalandenvironmentalimpactsoftheonlineretailsalestax134.1 Consumerwelfareimpactbyhouseholdincomedeciles134.2 Impactontheelderlyandthedisabled154.3 Impactbysizeofbusiness164.4 Regionaldistributionofwelfareandmarginlosses174.5 Indicativeemploymentlosses194.6 Environmentalimpact215. Assessmentagainsttheprinciplesoftaxpolicy236. Conclusionsandkeyfindings25Appendix 1: Modellingapproachandmethodology27Appendix 2: Sensitivityanalysis37OXFORDECONOMICSEXECUTIVESUMMARYBACKGROUNDCONTEXTANDSTUDYMOTIVATIONOn27July2020,HMTreasury(HMT)announcedacallforevidencearoundtheissueofabusinessratesreview.1ContainedwithinthisdocumentwasaconsiderationofalternativetaxbasesthatcouldraiserevenuefortheExchequertocompensateforanyshortfallthatmightbecreatedbybusinessratesreform.Thetwooptionsspecifiedwereacapitalvaluestaxpayablebythepropertyownerandanonlinesalestax(OST).ThedocumentinvitedbusinessestorespondtotheprospectofanOST.Inthiscontext,AmazonhavecommissionedOxfordEconomicstoproduceanindependentquantitativeassessmentoftheeconomicimplicationsoftheintroductionofsuchataxintheUK.Beyondtheaggregateimplicationsforfirms,consumersandgovernmentrevenuewehavealsoassessedthepotentialenvironmental,distributional,andregionalconsequencesofanOST.ASSUMPTIONSThecallforevidencedocumentprovidednoguidanceonthestructureofanyOSTbeyondsayingitwouldbeleviedononlinesalestoUK-basedcustomersandfocusedon,salesindirectcompetitionwiththosecarriedoutthroughphysicalpremises,2ForthepurposeofthisstudywehavemadethefollowingassumptionswithregardtothescaleandscopeoftheOST. Thetaxwouldbeimposedataflatadvaloremrateof2%. Thetaxwouldapplytoallretailsales(excludingautomotiveandfuel)andtoaselectionofB2Cservices:foodtakeaway,travelandaccommodation.Thetaxisintroducedin2022duringwhichperiodsocialdistancingpoliciesnolongerapply.Themodellingresultspresentedherearenaturallydependentontheseassumptions.DetailedresultsfromsensitivityanalysisaroundtheseassumptionscanbefoundinAppendix2ofthisdocument.KEYTERMSUSEDINTHISREPORT Theeconomicanalysissetoutinthisreportmeasurestheimpactonconsumersintermsofwelfareloss.Forconsumers,welfarefrommakingapurchaseismeasuredasthedifferencebetweenthemaximumamounttheconsumeriswillingtopayforthegoodorserviceandthepricethatisactuallypaid.Theimpactononlinesalesplatforms,andupstreambusinesses(collectivelyreferredtoas'suppliers')ismeasuredintermsofareductionintheirmargin,whichforthepurposesofthisanalysis,isthepricereceivedforagoodorserviceandthecostofprovidingit.OXFORDECONOMICSDeadweightloss,ornetwelfareloss,isthedifferencebetweentheincreaseingovernmentrevenuesandthesumoftheadverseimpactonconsumersandsuppliers.Economicconsequencesofa2%OSTWefindthatthattheintroductionofanOSTwouldraisearound£1.6billioningovernmentrevenue.Theburdenofthetaxwouldbesplitbetweenconsumers,onlinesalesplatforms,andupstreambusinesses.Ouranalysisshowsthatamajorityofthetax,sburdenwillmostlikelybebornebyconsumerswhocouldlosearound£1.3billioninwelfareterms,whereassupplierscouldlosejustover£500million.£ millionsFig.1.Impactofintroducinga2%OSTin2022Netwelfareloss2,0001,800-1,600_1,400-1,200-1,000-800-600-400-200-0-Suppliers'marginreduction506Consumerwelfare loss1,270(deadweight loss) 206Government gain/deadweight lossWeIfareZmargin lossSource:OxfordEconomicsOverall,theincreaseingovernmentrevenuesisnotsufficienttocompensateforthecombinedlossinconsumerwelfareandsuppliers*margins.ThenetinefficienciesduetotheOSTareestimatedtobearound£200million(i.e.,13%oftherevenue).DistributionalandenvironmentaleffectsAnOSTwillhithouseholdsinthelowestincomedecilethehardest.OurindicativemodellingsuggeststhatthereisnoclearpatterntothedistributionalimplicationsofanOST.However,ouranalysisdidsuggestthathouseholdsinthebottomincomedecilewillsufferthelargestdropinwelfareperpoundofdiscretionaryincome.TheOSTwillalsohavearestrictiveimpactonelderlyanddisabledpeoplethatarebecomingincreasinglyreliantononlineshoppingtopurchaseessentials.Whiletheelderlytendedtoshoplessonlinein2019comparedtoyoungerpeople,therestrictionsrelatedtotheCovid-19pandemichavenudgedmanytoshopmoreonlineandhaveperhapsovercomesomeoftheinitial»OXFORDECONOMICSbarrierstoonlineshopping.Thedisabledhavealsobecomeincreasinglyreliantononlineshoppinginrecentyears:theshareofthosewithdisabilityshoppingonlinehasincreasedfrom56%in2015to73%in2019andhasjumpedupto81%in2020.TheOSTisalsolikelytodisproportionatelyaffecteconomicactivityinregionsoftheUKwithloweraverageincomes.ThenegativeeconomicimpactsofanOSTonconsumersandbusinessesW川befeltmostacutelyinNorthernIreland,Scotland,Wales,andtheNorthWestwithrelativelylesssevereimpactsinLondonandtheSouthWest.Intermsofjobs,anOSTislikelytohaveadisproportionateimpactonregionsintheMidlands,theNorthWest,andtheNorthEast,wheredeliveryandwarehousingjobsaccountforamuchhigherproportionofregionalemployment.Wealsofindthatthetaxmighthindersmallerbusinessesfromaccessingpotentialcustomersthroughonlinechannels,potentiallystiflingtheirgrowthandreducingcompetitioninthemarket.WhenassessingtheimpactofanOSTontheeconomy,itisalsoimportanttoacknowledgethefiscalenvironmentatthetimethisreporthasbeenwritten.TheUKgovernmenthastakensignificantmeasurestosupportbusinessesandtheiremployeesinrecentmonthsandwilllooktoraiserevenueinthefuture.Thegovernmentsfiscaloptionswillneedtobeassessedagainstarangeofeconomicaswellasproceduralcriteria.InourassessmentoftheOSTagainsttheTreasurySelectCommittee'sprinciplesoftaxation,wefoundthattheOSTisdistortiveandalsocouldpotentiallyrestrictSMEsfromcompetingintheretailmarket.Further,thedisproportionateimpactonhouseholdsinthelowestincomedecileandoneconomicallyweakerregionsoftheUKaswellastherestrictiveeffectontheelderlyandthedisabledraisequestionsaboutthefairnessoftheOST.1. INTRODUCTIONBACKGROUNDIntheUKbusinessratesisataxchargedonbusinessesbasedontherentalvalueoftheirpremises.Thesystemhascomeundersignificantscrutinyinrecentyearswithcriticssuggestingthatithascontributedtothedeclineof,high-street,retail.On27July2020,HMTreasury(HMT)announcedacallforevidencearoundtheissueofabusinessratesreview.3Alongsidethedetaileddiscussionofhowthesystemmightbereformed,thisdocumentalsoraisedoptionsfortaxesthegovernmentmightintroduceto,atleastpartially,recovertherevenueshortfallthatwouldbecreatedbytheenvisagedreforms.Thetwooptionsspecifiedwereacapitalvaluestaxpayablebythepropertyownerandanonlinesalestax(OST).TheHMTdocumentinvitedbusinessestorespondtotheprospectofanOSTaspartofaconsultation.STUDYOBJECTIVESAtthetimeofwriting,objectiveevidencerelatedtotheimplicationsofanOSTisscant.Moreover,thefactthatsuchataxhasnotbeenintroducedanywhereelseintheworldmeansthereisnorealavailableliteratureonwhichtodrawconclusionsaboutitslikelyconsequences.Inthiscontext,AmazoncommissionedOxfordEconomicstoproduceanindependentquantitativeassessmentoftheeconomicimplicationsoftheintroductionofsuchataxintheUK.Beyondtheaggregateimplicationsforfirms,consumersandgovernmentrevenue,wehavealsoassessedthepotentialenvironmental,distributional,andregionalconsequencesofanOST.Intheremainderofthisdocumentwedescribethefindingsfromthisresearchanddetailhowthesewereformed.2. HOWWEASSESSTHEIMPACTOFANONLINERETAILSALESTAXWemodeltheeconomicimpactoftheOSTbysimulatinghowsuppliersandconsumerswillreacttotheimpositionofthetax.Wedescribeourmethodologybrieflyinthischapter.AfulldescriptionofthemethodologyisprovidedinAppendix1.2.1ANALYTICALFRAMEWORKOurmodellingisbasedonanestedstructureasshowinFig.2below.WebeginbyestimatingtheextenttowhichtheOSTincreasesconsumerpricesintheonlinesegment(andconversely,howmuchoftheOSTisabsorbedbysuppliers).Wethenmodelhowconsumersswitchtoin-storepurchasesorswitchtobuyingdifferentproductsaltogether.Fig.2.NestedmodelstructureOnlineIn-storeConsumerswill be incentivised toswitch purchases of the equivalentproduct to in-store rather than onlineOnlineOnlineIn-storeIn-storeProduct XProduct YProduct ZThe changes in prices and purchasinghabits will change the relative price ofdifferent productsSavingConsumerspendingSource:OxfordEnomicsTherevenue,welfare,andmargincalculationsarebasedonthedemandsupplyframework.Theintroductionofataxintroducesa'wedge',i.e.,adifferencebetweenthemarketequilibriumpriceandthepricefacedbyconsumersontheonehandandthepricereceivedbybusinessesontheotherhand.Theextenttowhichthepriceincreasesforconsumers(andconversely,decreasesforbusinesses)isdeterminedbytheextentof'pass-through'.Theextentof'pass-through'woulddependonthenatureofcompetitionamongretailersandbusinessesandthebargainingpowerofconsumers.Inourmodelling,weassumearangeofpass-throughestimatesbasedoneconomictheoryandareviewofvariousrelevantacademicpapers.Tomodelconsumerbehaviourfollowingtheincreaseinprices,wecombineddataononlinepurchasesfromtheONSwithestimatesofelasticitiesfromarepresentativesurveyofUKHouseholds(forwithin-productin-storevsonlineswitchingbehaviour)andvariousacademicpapers(forinter-productswitchingbehaviour).Basedonourmodelling,wequantifiedtheimpactoftheOSTon:OXFORDFCONQMICSGovernmentrevenue;Consumerwelfare,measuredinmonetaryterms;andSuppliers'margins.2.2 POLICYASSUMPTIONSTheHMTcallforevidencedocumentdidnotprovideanyguidanceonthestructureofanyOSTbeyondsayingitwouldbeleviedononlinesalestoUKbasedcustomersandfocusedonusalesindirectcompetitionwiththosecarriedoutthroughphysicalpremises.4ForthepurposeofthisstudywehavemadethefollowingassumptionswithregardtothescaleandscopeoftheOST.Thetaxwouldbeimposedataflatadvaloremrateof2%.Thetaxwouldapplytoallretailsales(excludingautomotiveandfuel)andtoaselectionofB2Cservices:foodtakeaway,travel,andaccommodation.Thetaxisintroducedin2022duringwhichperiodsocialdistancingpoliciesnolongerapply.Themodellingresultspresentedinchapterthreearedependentontheseassumptions.DetailedresultsfromsensitivityanalysisaroundtheseassumptionscanbefoundinAppendix2ofthisdocument.2.3 FORECASTCONDITIONSIN2022EvenbeforetheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,highstreetretailerswerestrugglingwithincreasingrents,growingbusinessratesbillsaswellastheincreasingpopularityofonlineshopping.Internetsalesshareoftheretailmarkethasbeensteadilytrendingupoverthelastfewyears.Thistrendhasdramaticallyacceleratedthisyear.Socialdistancingpoliciestocontainthepandemicledtoasharpincreaseinboththevalueofonlineretailsalesanditsmarketshare.AsshowninFig.3,weeklyinternetsalesintheUKwerecloseto£1.5billionatthebeginningof2020(20%ofallretailsales).Weeklyonlinesalesincreasedtoapeakof£2.5Nllion(30%ofallretailsales)inJune2020buthavesincedeclinedto£2.2billion(26%ofallretailsales)inSeptember2020consistentwiththere-openingofnon-essentialretail.There-introductionofanational'Iockdown'inNovembertogetherwithseasonalfactors,however,shouldseetheonlinesharereboundin2020Q4.Atthispoint,theextenttowhichthischangeinbehaviourbecomespermanentishighlyuncertain.OXFORDFCONQMICSFig.3.Onlineretailsales,2015-2020H1£mnperweek%share00%20152016201720182019202000%201520162017201820192020Internetsales(left-axis)Internetshareoftotal(right-axis)Source:ONSOurforecastsarebasedonONSdataontotal(onlineandin-store)retailsalesfor2018groupedintothe10theproductcategorieslistedinFig.4.Totalsaleshavebeenprojectedforwardsto2022usingin-houseconsumerspendingforecastsfortherelevantCOICOP(classificationofindividualconsumptionbypurpose)category.Toforecasttheonlineshareofretailtradeforeachproductcategory,weusedregressionanalysistoestablishthepre-COVID-19trend.Thiswasextrapolatedonto2022.Toaccountforthepotentialpermanenttrendaccelerationthatmighthavebeencausedbyashiftinconsumerpreferencesduringthepandemic,wehaveassumedthathalfoftheunexplainedincreaseintheinternetshareduring2020remainedpermanent.5Research by UBS in the UK found that 71% of respondents said they would shop online ,*as often or more after the Covid -19 situation improves". Based on other survey evidence, Bain estimates that between 35% and 45% of the recent increase in online sales will turn out to be permanentBasedonthisapproach,in2022,weexpecttotalonlinesalesacrosstheseproductcategorieswillbe£84billionequivalentto18%ofthetotalsales(i.e.onlineandin-store).Amongthesecategories,foodandalcoholandfurnitureandhouseholdappliancesarethehighestvalueonlinemarketswithapproxim