CBRE-政府或公司债券收益率是英国房地产定价的更好基准吗？（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告20230.docx

CBREVIEWPOINTWe explore whether index- linked Government bond oc BBB corporate bond yields are more useful than nominal Government bond yields for analysing prime real estate pricingCBRE RESEARCH DECEMBER 2023IntelligentInvestmentAreGovernmentorcorporatebondyieldsabetterbenchmarkforUKrealestatepricing?Prime real estate yields rose in the last 18 months, but SDreadS over nominal and red G vlds r,r什u.,.lKeytakeaways-Primerealestateyieldsroseinthelast18monthstoreflectthec11oedinterestrateenvironmentbutthescreedbetweenIXMneyieldsand10-yearGove<nmen(bondyieldsremainslightcomparedwiththelastdecadeCurrent ocin miaM IOOk unfavourable based on these ComDariSOg but history shows the DoeAion can change OUiCkN-Smalls(xedsovernominalGovernmentbondyieldswereobserveddurmgtheGlobalFinancialCrisisof27-0.buttheyWefealsoConlmonDteCebeforethisWrthtacetreturnsforrealestatemetIhrouahacombnadonofinitialInCOmeandcashAoworowth-index-linkedGovernmentbondsareabetterbenchmarkforthefkreeratewhenanaysinorealestate,becausecashtowrwthi$tearltobothtvoeso(investmentTheSDfeddbetweencrimeyieldsandIOVeari11(texrlnjedCbeenconsistentlypositivethroughtime,dithouohitisnownarrowerthanmrecentveers-CorDaatebondyieldshavealsoshownaclo$6rcocresporfencewithrealestateyieldssincetheseinvestments,likerealestate,offe<artskPfefniUmrelativetoGovernmentbondsTheyieldsforB88UKC(XD(XatebondshaverisenaboveDCimerealestateyields.-CurrentrealMatePnClnQrmghtlookUnteVoUrebIebttedontheseConIPenSOns.butMtOfVshowsthatthepositioncanchangeQUlCktY.andpressuresonrealestatewilleaseifkx>terminterestratesstartfllmnreflectionofadclmnUKinflationrateandanendtotheraterts11cycleHave spreads been more consistent bet ween real estate yields and these oher measures, and do such comparisons suggest that a tighter spread over nominalGovernment bond yields could be sustained Soingforward?IntroductionTheUKhasseenasustainedriseinbothshort-termadlong-terminterestratesoverthelasttwoveariThisfollowedadecadeinwhichtheBdnkofEnglandbaseratewasbelow1%,borrowingcostsweretYDtcallvvervlow.andGovernmentbondyieldswerealsoVCrVlow.supportedM9(XoQrammeofquantitativeeasing.Overthatsamedecade,awidemarginexitedbetweenrealestateyieldsandGovernmentbondViekKHence,whatEiahtbetheImDlicationSforUKrealestateDfiCinafromrecentrisesinGovernmentandcorporatebondyw(Kandhowfardorealestateyieldshavetorisetoreflectthechangedfinancialenvironment?TighterspreadsbetweenUKrealestateVieMSandnominalGovernmentbondyieldshavebeenobservedintheoastbutthesemhthaveresultedfromdifferentinvestorexpectationsaboutcashflowgrowthordifferencesintheriskorem<umreouiredforrealestateinvestmentWeexploresomeoftheadvantagesandChaItefKW5ofCOnWinQrealestateyieldsagainstindex-linkedGovernnwntbondyields,andCorooratebondyieldsasMtefnMeStonominalGovernmentbonds.Havespreadsbeenmoreconsistentbetweenrealestateyieldsandtheseothermeasures,anddosuchcomwrisonsSUQgeStthalatighterspreadovernominalGovernmentbondyieldscouldbesustainedQOinaforward?NominalGiltyieldsTargetreturnratesforprimerealestateives(wntsshouldreflecttherisk-freerateofreturn,plusapremiumforbearingtherisksassociatedwithm!estate,butinvestorsdonotneedtoreceivetheirtargetreturnratefromcurrentinco<neifthefuturecashflowsfromr«alestateinvestmentsareexpectedtorise.Therefore,theyieldtheyreceiveinitiallycanbeowfthantheirtargetrate.Thismeansthatyieldswillbenftuencednotonvbvrkreeratesandriskpremiums,butalsobygrowthexpectations.ThemostcommonproxyforariskreerateinanalysisofUKComCnefCiaIrealestateisthere<>emo<ionyieldfornominalGovernmentbonds(orGilUlIoyeMGiftsareoftenused.OWmtotheSimilaritvbetweenthe*lengthandtheholdingperiodsusedGmanyreelestateassetvaluationslyerGittsarenottheoreticallyrtskfree,buttheyarearetotivetyrisk-freealternativetoinvestingincomercreelestate.Figure1谓UstNteStheyieldforK>verGltsaoaistanaHPrODertVprimeyieldoverthelast35veers.TheMpropertyyieldisconstructedasacompositeofprimeyieldsrecordedbyCBREforthehighstreetretail,office,andindustrialsectorsoftheUKrealestatemarket.ThecomparisonshowsthatthespreadbetweenrealestateyieldsandIOyearno<nnalGiKyieldshasvariedalotovertime.Theaveragespreadsince2013hasbeen25ibobutwasonly86bosinthedecadeDCiortothis,whitetherewereperiodsMthe198OSand19905whenthe10-yeMGtttyieldwasabovetheprimerealestateyield.Moreover,nocallmovementsinnominalGityieldsleadtochangesinrealestateVieidWThiSt$becausesomefactorsthatcauseGItyieldstoriseOrfNLsuchchangingexpectationsforinflation,mightproduceadifferentreactioninrealestateVieid$Forexample.HhiQhefinflationwasexpectedtooenefatehighercashflowgrowth,thiswouldcounteractriseinthensk-frcorateHence,thelimitationsofthiscomparisonarethatitomitsconsiderationofhowviewsaboutriskorgrowtharechanging.ThisisespeciallyrelevantforunderstandingrecentChanQeSinthespreadbetweenrealestateYieldsandnominalGittyieldsgiventhatithastightenedinthecte×tofheightenedinflationandincreasestoDOiicyinterestratestoaddresstht&FIGURE1:PrimeUKallpropertyyieldsvs.UK10-yearnominalG«ltyields"PrimUKalpropertyyMK)-yr(WninalUKGihSourctCBRfResearchMrot)dIndex-linked(rihyieldslndc×>linkedGovecrwwntbondshavecashflowsthatadjustinlinewithChanQeSintheUKRetailPriceIndex,ameasureofinflation.Assuch,theyieldQuotedf(xsuchbondsprovidesanindicationoftheifator>adustod-orreal,riskfroo-rateofreturn,abettthepriceofindex-linkedGhsmaycarryaDCefniUmastheyhelptoNecfaeMfUtIonrisksfacedbvinvestors.COmDeringrealestateyieldsandindex-linkedGirtyieldsisonewaytoexploretheriskpremiumforrealestatewithouthavingtoexplicitlyWeCifYgrowthexMCtatk>ns.Thisisbecause.Ikrlsut.Wex-IinkedGltsr»ninvestmentthatoffercashflowgrowthbeyondthestatedyield,butataverylowtevelofrisk.Figure2displaystheIOycerindo>inkedGiJtyieldagainstanaflpropertyprimeyieldoverthelast35year$.Thespreadbetweenthesetwomeasureshasvaried,butithasremainedpositiveOVeftir>eandndifferenteconomicenvironments,unlethespreadbetweenprimeyieldsandlvrnominalGiItyields.Theaveragespredoverinde>linkedGWtyieldshasbeenwiderinthelast10years,paredtothedecadebeforethis,butthespreadhasnarrowedConsxJerabtyoverthelast18months.Visually,thereisalso9strongercorrespondencebetweenmovementsinindex-linkedGiltyieldsendprimerealestateViel(KThissuggestsindexlinkedGiltsareamoreusefulbenchmarkforreelestateDCiCinaHowever,9kequestioniswhethertheinfiatior>linkedexpectationsforQfoWthreflectedinindex-linkedGihyolds.reanaoDcopriatecontrolforgrowthexpectationsinrealestate.AweakreUtionshipbetweenthetwocoulddistortanyinferenceabouttherealestateriskpremiumfromthespreadbetweentheseyie*dseries.FIGURE2:PrimeUKallpropertyyieldsvsUK10yearIndex-linkedGiltyields健落健馥馥馥馥彝馥涯熊溪靛靛襄-Kr real UK giltPrimUKallDroDeftYyieldSOur8CBRfResearchMrobcdCorporatebondyieldsMostUKcoroctebondsprovidefixedcashflows,butatahigheryieldthannominalGownmeatbondsofasimilarlengthbecauseoftheadditionalriskassociatedwithcorporatecovenants.Therefore,comperingrealestateyieldstocoxxatebondyieldsDrovidessomecontrolforvariationsinoeneralriskDerceotions.butftwillno<capturefluctuationsintheriskpremiumthataregeneratedbyconcernsthtarespecifictotherealestatesector.WecompareprimerealestateyieldstoBB8atedUKcorporatebondyieldsoverthelast25yearsinFigure3.BB&ratedC(XDOretebondsareinvestmentgrade,buttheyarebelowthebestcovenanttevels.Argueblv.BBS-ratedbondsprovideabettermatchtotherangeoftenantcovenantsfoundingood*ityreelestateassetsth.rAAArCKl,):-Visually,thereisanotablecorrespondencebetweensustainedmovementsincorporatebondyieldsandshiftsinrealestateyields.ThisislikelytobedrivenbyfactorsthatinfluencetheriskpremiumforbothinvestmentsYettheSOrWdrelativetoCofpOrNebondshasvariedconsidecabty.WhileprimerealestateyieldshaveofferedapremiumtoBB8corporatebondyieldsinrecentyears,9longer-termviewSUQQeStgthatthisWgunusual.Thecomparisondoesnotaccountforvariationsintheexpectationsfoerealestatecashflowgrowth,though,wichwillinfluencewhetheranegativespreadbetweenrealestateyieldsandcorporatebondyieldscanbesustainedmovingforward.SJrCfrCBRCReuarcnWefOtXmbH>kingah<(lArguablyt index- linked Gilt yields are a ltler proxy for the risk-free rate when analysing real estate because cash flow growth is integralto both types OfinvestmenLSpreadsbetweenrealestateyieldsandnomioaUKGovernmentbondyieldsarenarrowerthantheyhavebeenforsometime.WhilethissuggeststhattheremightbefurtherUOWafdDcessuceonrealestateyields,nominalGiItMdsarenotWwavsagoodbenchmarkforpricingforthereasonssummarisedinFigure4.Arguably,index-linkedGiltyieldsareabetterproxyfoetheriskrooratewhenanalysingrealestate,becausecashflowgrowthisintegraltobothtypesofinvestment.ComparisonswitC(XDOrdtebondyie*dsarealsoinformativesincetherearesharedelementstotheriskDfemiumthatcorporatebondsandrealestateinvestmentsofferversusGovernmentbonds.Nonetheless,incases,investorsshouldbemindfulthatspreadscanchangeQUiCkNwhenComgfedtothetimescalesforplanningandmakingrealestateinvestments.Forexample,attractiverelativecxicir小2021soonbecameUMtfaCtrVeDridnaMtheendof2022asrealestateyieldsmovedouthurtinginvestmentsmadejustbeforethesteeoriseininterestrates.Conversely,acoui$ition$madeinthenextfewmonthscouldbenefitifsomeofthepressuresonrealestateyieldsease,butthisrequiresthatlocHerminterestratesbegintomoderateastheUKinflationratedeclinesanddrityemergesonthefuturepathforPoliCVinterestratos.FIGURE4;AdvantagesndchallengesofusingdifferentbondV$benchmarksforralst(pricingChallongosNominalGovernmentbonddsCommonlyusedbvinvestorsasarisk-freebenchmarkProvideslittleinformationinisolationonhowriskDerceotionsarecarin.Offersthelongestrunninseriesfor".rii.r'ProvideslittleinformationinisolationonhowrwthexDectMionsarecbanoina.lnd*-lkdGovornmontShowspc11foravsk4rftihtofferscsflowgrowth.lnde>HkedcashflowsmtbeaweakproxyforrealestatecashHoWgrowth.bondyieldsAstronervisualcorresooodencwithcrimerealestatevldsSoreadmightbeaWNkefdoxyforrealestateriskDremiUmasaresult.BB-ratedcorp6ratebondYMdSShowsDnCln口fora<ii>ncome>nvestmet'"'"CorooreteriskpremiummightbeaweakDrOxVforrealestateriskDrefnim.AStronoervisualcorresoondencwithcrimerealestateyieldsVariationsinexpectedcashflowgrowthforrealestateCOmDIiCaSCOmDarisons.SOUf8CBftERMearcContactsRichAfdDikkndianABcnNkkkn«hiijf.t'Nam.I；KeedofReelEstMeInveetineot,'I-'11'.EurooeXkm。小一.,AftHEMdfeODLEZ.tfrftl1wm,IEnetSirilStc*vnDrvAtinNklBariiviHeJofUKResearchDh<!M.UKw«e(rbSMiIorAMlytLUKtaHRlirfUltaMWHK©Copyright2023.Allrightsreserved.TNsreporthasbeenpreparedingood何th,basedonCBRE,scurrentanecdotalandevidencebasedviewsofthecommercialrealestatemarketAlthoughCBREbelievesitsVieWSreflectmarketconditionsonthedateofthispresentation,theyaresubjecttosignificantuncertaintiesandconbngendes,manyofWiIieharebeyondCBRE'scontrol.Inaddition,manyofCBRE,sviewsareopinionand/orprojectionsbasedonCBRFsSUbjeCbveanalysesofcurrentmarketdrcmstances.Otherfirmsmayhaveefferentopinions,projectionsandanalyses,andactualmarketconditionsintefuturemaycauseCBREscurrentviewstolaterbeincorrect.CBREhasnoobligationtoupdateitsviewshereinifitsopinions,projections,analysesormarketcircumstanceslaterchange.NothinginthisreportshoMbeconstruedasanindicatorofthefuturePerfonnan8ofCBRE'ssecuritiesoroftheperformanceofanyothercompany'ssecurities.Youshouldnotpurchaseorsellsecurities-ofCBREoranyothercompany-basedontheviewsherein.CBREdisclaimsallIidbilityforsecuritiespurchasedorsoldbasedoninformationherein,andbyviewingthisreport,youWahleMdaimsagainstCBREaswellasagainstCBRE'saffiliates,officers,directors,employees,agents,advisersandrepresentativesarisingoutoftheaccuracy,completeness,adequacyoryouruseoftheinformationherein.