RMI+中国能源行业多维度的甲烷减排路径-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

Z、RMReportSeriesonMethaneEmissionsControlMethaneEmissionsMitigationApproachesacrossMultipleDimensionsinChina'sEnergySectorExecutiveSummaryES/December2023¼RMIAboutRMIRMlisanindependentnonprofit,foundedin1982asRockyMountainInstitute,thattransformsglobalenergysystemsthroughmarket-drivensolutionstoalignwitha1.5oCfutureandsecureaclean,prosperous,zero-carbonfutureforall.Weworkintheworld'smostcriticalgeographiesandengagebusinesses,policymakers,communities,andnongovernmentalorganizationstoidentifyandscaleenergysysteminterventionsthatwillcutgreenhousegasemissionsatleast50percentby2030.RMIhasofficesinBasaltandBoulder,Colorado;NewYorkCity;Oakland,California;Washington,D.C.;andinBeijing,People'sRepublicofChina.AuthorsandAcknowledgmentsAuthorsMinhuiGao,YihanHaozTingLi,WeiWangOtherContributorsQiangLiu,XinSuAuthorsarelistedalphabeticallybylastname.AllauthorsarefromRMIunlessotherwisenoted.ContactWeiWangzwwangrmi.orgCitationRMl,MethaneEmissionsMitigationApproachesacrossMultipleDimensionsinChina'sEnergyfSector,RMI,2023,https:/rmi.org/insight/methane-emissions-mitigation-approaches-across-multiple-dimensions-in-chinas-energy-sector/AcknowledgmentsWewouldliketoexpresssincerethankstothefollowingexpertsfortheirinsightandcomments:FeiTeng,ProfessorandDeputyDirector,InstituteofEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomics,TsinghuaUniversityXinXu,DeputyDirector,EnergySecurityResearchInstitute,ChinaCoalInformationInstitute,MinistryofEmergencyManagementQianLiu,Director,DepartmentofResearch,theSustainabilityStandardsResearchCenter,CentralUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsJunlianGao,AssociateProfessor,DepartmentofManagementScienceandEngineering,ChinaUniversityofMiningandTechnologySpecialthankstotheGlobalMethaneHubThecontentsofthisreportdonotrepresenttheviewsoftheaboveexpertsandinstitutions,aswellasthoseoftheprojectproponents.ExecutiveSummaryMethane(CH4)isthesecondmostabundantgreenhousegasaftercarbondioxide(CO2).Ithascontributedtoover30%ofthecurrentriseinglobaltemperaturesincetheindustrialrevolution.Theinternationalcommunityhasreachedaconsensustotacklemethaneemissions,leadingtomultilateralandbiliteralcooperationonmethanemitigation.TheGlobalMethanePledge,initiatedbytheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionduringthe26thUNClimateChangeConferencein2021,hasover150participatingcountries,pledgingcollectiveeffortstoachievea30%reductioninglobalmethaneemissionsby2030zrelativeto2020levels.Recently,ChinaandtheUnitedStatesdecidedtooperationalizetheWorkingGrouponEnhancingClimateActioninthe2020s.TheWorkingGroupwillfocusontheareasofcooperationthathavebeenidentifiedintheSunnylandsStatementandtheGlasgowDeclaration,includingonmethane.Overtheyears,Chinahasbeenactivelyengagedinmethanemitigation,implementingarangeofpoliciesandeconomicmeasurestocurbtherapidgrowthofmethaneemissions.InNovember2023,theChinesegovernmentmadepublicthenationalactionplandedicatedtomethaneemissionscontrol,addressingtoimproveemissionsmonitoringandsupervisionsystemsformethane,andoutliningmitigationmeasuresinthefieldsofenergy,agriculture,waste,andwastewatertreatment.Thisactionplan,servingasChina/sfirstnationalleveldocumentdesignedformethaneemissionscontrol,Willfurtheraccelerateitsmethanemitigationefforts.China'smethaneemissionsoriginateprimarilyfromactivitiesrelatedtofossilfuelproductionanduse,ricecultivation,livestock,andwastemanagement.Amongthesesources,theenergysectorconstitutesthelargestcontributor,accountingfor46%ofthetotalmethaneemissionsinChinaJComparedwithothersectors,theenergyindustryhasmorematuremitigationtechnologies,makingittheprimaryfocusatthecurrentstage.Currently,Chinastillfacesthreemajorchallengesinmethaneemissionscontrolwithintheenergysector: ThemajorityofmethaneemissionsinChina,senergysectorstemfromcoalproduction.AsthetotalfossilenergyconsumptioninChinahasnotyetpeaked,thereisaneedtoeffectivelymanageandbalanceenergyproduction,energyconsumptionandmethanemitigation. Unevendevelopmentofmitigationtechnologiesintheenergyindustry,coupledwithinsufficientcosteffectivenessformajoremissionssources,makesitchallengingtoattractinvestmentformitigationprojects. Apartfrompolicyandtechnologicalsupport,methanemitigationrequiresconcreteactionsfromthecoalindustryandoilandgascompanies.GreaterawarenessandincentivesarecrucialtocatalyzeinitiativeswithinChineseenergyenterprisesandrelatedindustries.Toaddressthepreviouslymentionedchallenges,RMIproposesmeasuresacrossfivedimensionstoacceleratemethanemitigationinChina'senergysector.Theenergysectorshouldoptimizeenergyproductionandconsumptionbyacceleratingenergytransitionandestablishingprocurementprinciples,therebymaximizingthesynergisticeffectofenergytransitiononmethaneemissionsreduction.Itshouldenhancetheeconomicviabilityandapplicabilityofmitigationtechnologiesthroughmarketmechanismstopromoteprojectconstructionandfullyrealizetheclimatevalueofmethanereduction.Itshouldbreakdowninformationbarriersthroughimprovedinformationdisclosure.Itshouldalsoboostmethanegovernancethroughincreasedinternationalcooperation,facilitatingcross-sectorcomparisonsandtriggeringcompaniestoactivelyengageinmitigationeffortsandenhancingChina,sparticipation,contributionandleadershipintheprocessofglobalclimategovernance.iInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),'GlobalMethaneTracker2023,uFebruary2023,https:/www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023.Dimension1:EnergyTransitionThesubstantialdomesticdemandforcoal,oil,andnaturalgasproductshasdrivenupstreamactivitiesrelatedtotheextraction,processing,andtransportationoffossilenergysources,resultinginsignificantCH4emissions.TheenergyconsumptionstructureacrossvarioussectorsinChinaisacrucialfactoraffectingCH4emissions.Intheprocessofenergyprocessingandconversion,activitiessuchascoal-basedelectricitygenerationandcokeproductioncontributesignificantamountsofenergymethaneemissions,withcurrentlevelsat47%and17%,respectively.Attheend-uselevel,existingproductionprocessesinthesteel,chemicals,andcementindustriesnecessitatesubstantialfuelandrawmaterialconsumption,whichcontributetomethaneemissionswithpercentagesof21%,14%,and8%,respectively,makingtheindustrialsectorthelargestcontributor.Concurrently,theresidentialandtransportationsectors,drivenbyheating,cooking,andtransportationdemands,alsoconsumesignificantquantitiesoffossilfuels,contributing13%and5%tomethaneemissions,respectively(seeExhibit1).Exhibit1FlowChartofMethaneEmissionsfromFossilFuelProductionCIL from Oi 1 SystemProductionDirect Use /-OfCoal .一BleatSupplvCulturalGayfiqupficntion-jDirectUseofNaturalCastilRefiningandCoal-to-LiquidsircctUscofOilEnergy Processing and ConversiofiFinal CnsuationRMIGraphic.Source:IEAzhttps:/www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023;NationalBureauofStatistics,Transitionmeasuresinkeyindustries,particularlytheimplementationoflow-carbontechnologiesinthepower,steel,andchemicalsindustries,havethepotentialtodirectlyreduceCo2emissionsandtocollaborativelydecreasemethaneemissionsfromtheproductionsideoffossilfuels.AccordingtoestimatesbyRMI,by2060zmeasuresinsixmajorsectors(i.e.,electricity,steelzchemicals,cement,transportation,andresidential)areexpectedtocontributetoa61%reductioninenergy-relatedmethanecomparedwiththe2020baseline.Notablyzthepowerandsteelindustries,whicharemajorcoal-consumingsectors,willhavethemostsignificantimpact,drivingmethanereductionsof41%and12%,respectively.Duetothesubstantialshort-term(pre-2030)demandforfossilenergyinvariousindustries,itisprojectedthatdomesticcoalconsumptionwillpeakandslowlydeclineby2030.Thecontributiontomethanereductionfromthetransitionmeasuresinthesixmajorkeyenergy-consumingindustriesby2030isestimatedtobeonly7%.Thisimpliesthatadditionaleffortswillstillberequiredtocontrolmethaneintheshortterm,includingoptimizingexistingresources,promotingresearchandapplicationofkeytechnologies,encouragingcorporateaction,andenhancinginformationtransparency.Dimension2:ProcurementPrinciplesMethaneemissionsfromtheproductionofcoal,oil,andnaturalgasvarysignificantlybetweenproductionregionsduetogeologicalconditions,extractionmethods,implementationofmitigationtechnologies,anddifferingmanagementlevels(seeExhibit2).Whilemeetingtheoverallconsumptionoffossilfuels,shiftingconsumptiontowardproducingregionswithloweremissionsintensitycanhelpreducemethane.Exhibit2MethaneEmissionsIntensityinMajorFossilEnergyProductionSitesNaturalGasRMIGraphic.Source:GlobalEnergyMonitor,https:/globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-mine-tracker/;RMIanalysisWiththeongoingtrendofenergytransition,ChinaScoalconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuallydecrease,resultinginanincreasedpotentialforproductionlayoutoptimization.Underthesecircumstances,theabilitytomonitorandidentifythemethaneemissionsperformanceofvariousminingregionscanserveasatooltoguidemethanemanagementwithincoalenterprises.Inthiscontext,ifcoalconsumersestablishdedicatedprocurementprinciplesbasedonmethaneintensityandprioritizethepurchasefromregionswithlowerintensity,theycansignificantlyinfluencemethaneemissionsthroughtheirconsumptionactivities.Exhibit 3AccordingtoRMIestimates,implementingthelow-intensityprocurementprincipleinmetallurgicalcoalmines,asopposedtoprioritizinghigh-intensitycoalmines,canleadtoasubstantial27%reductioninmethaneemissions.Similarly,forthermalcoalmines,therecanbeanotable76%differenceinmethaneemissionsbetweenlow-intensityandhigh-intensityprocurementscenarios.Chinahasthepotentialtoeffectivelyleverageitsabundantcoalresources(seeExhibit3).Bydrivingchangesincorporateconsumptionpreferencesandcontinuallyadvancingtheoptimizationofcoalresourcesbasedonmethaneintensity,supportedbybothregionalandnationalpolicies,Chinacaneffectivelypromoteemissionsreductionwithinthecoalindustry.MethaneEmissionsfromChina,sCoalMinesunderDifferentProcurementPrinciplesCoalMineCapacity(Mt)RMlGraphic.Source:GlobalEnergyMonitor,htter;JulianGaoetal.,https:/iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326ac38d8;RMIanalysisO/3)A=SUc一X。WW-soInadditiontodomesticregulations,whenprocuringimportedfossilfuels,ChinahasthepotentialtoleverageitsinfluencebyrequiringsupplierstofurnishdatathatverifiestheiralignmentwithChina'sintensityandpolicycompliancestandards.Thisapproachcouldpotentiallyincentivizefossilfuelproducingnationstointensifytheireffortstoreducemethaneemissions.AccordingtoRMIestimates,byimposingChina'smethaneemissionsintensityasaconstraintcriterionforfossilfuelimports,providedimportvolumesremainconstant,theimplementationofalow-intensityprinciplecouldyielda30%reductioninmethaneemissionsattributedtoimportedfossilfuels.Fromacorporateperspective,Chineseenterprisesengagedinfossilfuelconsumptioncanemployemissionscertificationplatformsastoolstofacilitatetheselectiveprocurementoflow-methaneintensityproducts,consequentlyaffectingareductioningreenhousegasemissionsthroughouttheirupstreamsupplychains.Dimension3:MarketMechanismsThemethanegeneratedduringtheundergroundcoalminingprocessisapivotalfocusformethanereductionwithinthecoalindustryandcanbeeffectivelymitigatedthroughtheimplementationofrecoveryandutilizationtechnologies.Keyemissionsreductiontechnologiesincludethosetargetinglow-concentrationcoalminemethane(CMM)andventilationairmethane(VAM).Duetotheirsuboptimaleconomicviability,additionalincentivemeasuresarenecessarytodrivetheconstructionandoperationoftheseprojects.China,sCertifiedEmissionReduction(CCER)schemeoffersavaluablesupplementtothenationalemissionstradingsystem.ByincludingCMMandVAMprojectswithintheCCERmarket,projectoperatorscanobtainverifiedemissionsreductionsandtradethemwithparticipantsinthecarbonmarket,therebygainingdirecteconomicbenefits,asshowninExhibit4.Exhibit4ApplicationofCoalSectorMethaneCCERProjectintheCarbonMarketCCERVerificationandTradeCoalSectorMethaneUtilizationProjectCarbonMarketComplianceCompanyRMlGraphic.Source:RMIanalysisIntheabsenceoftheCCERmarket,themethaneabatementcostsforVAMutilizationandVAM-CMMcomprehensiveutilizationareapproximatelylz400RMBpertonofmethaneand300RMBpertonofmethane,respectively.WhentheseprojectsparticipateintheCCERmarket,costsgraduallydecreaseastheCCERtransactionpricecontinuestorise.WhentheCCERpricereaches52RMBpertonofcarbondioxideequivalent(CO2e),bothVAMutilizationprojectsandVAM-CMMmixedutilizationcanbeachievedatnonetcost(seeExhibit5).In2022,theaveragenationalcarbonpriceinChinawas55RMBpertonofCO2e.Thisindicatesthatthecarbonmarketcanserveasafoundationaldriverforpromotingmethaneutilizationinthecoalsector.Lookingahead,asmoreindustriesareintegratedintothecarbonmarketandcarbonquotasbecomemorestringent,carbonpriceswillrise.This,inturn,willdriveanincreaseinCCERpricesandcreateadditionalprofitforCMMutilizationprojects.Exhibit5ImpactofCCERPricesontheEconomicViabilityofDifferentMethaneUtilizationProjects2,000(i,0 SiS O O WUJqvI。VAMUtilization-VAM-CMMMixedUtilization1.ow-ConcentrationCMMPowerGenerationHigh-ConcentrationCMMPowerGenerationNote:Gasconcentrationthresholdsforemissionsreductiontechnologiesareasfollows:VAMutilization:Cc4<0.75%VAM-CMMmixedutilization:VAMCch4<0.75%,CMMCoU<8%1.ow-concentrationCMMpowergeneration:8%<Ccm<30%High-concentrationCMMpowergeneration:Ccw30%Thisassumesthatlow-andhigh-concentrationCMMpowergenerationprojectsarenotparticipatingintheCCERmarket.RMIGraphic.Source:RMIanalysisAsmoresectorsareprogressivelyincorporated,thenationalcarbonmarketwillencompassapproximately8billiontonsofCo2emissions.Atthatpoint,theCCERmarketsscaleisexpectedtoreach400milliontonsofCO2e.AccordingtoRMIestimates,by2030,CCERprojectsrelatedtoCMMandVAMareprojectedtoexceed14billionRMBintotalscale,covering30%ofthetotalCCERdemand(seeExhibit6).Thiscontributionisexpectedtoresultina21%reductioninmethaneemissionswithinthecoalindustry.Exhibit6CCERProjectsScaleforCMMandVAMUtilizationRMl Graphic. Source: RMI analysisCOa- SeC-Or Mghane CCER Market SiZe as PerCen-age OfTOta- CCER Demand(UOB mws) ZeB 山。 JoPaS760。Coal Sector Methane CCER Market Size - % of Total CCER DemandDimension4:InformationDisclosureInformationdisclosurerelatedtomethaneemissionsprovidesseveralbenefits,includingenhancedcorporateperformance,reducedregulatoryrisks,supportforgovernmentdecision-making,increasedsocietalawareness,andthefoundationforcorporateparticipationinmarketmechanismsanddeeperinternationalcooperation.InChina,coalcompaniescurrentlyhavelimitedmethaneemissionsdisclosure.Onlyafewcompanieshavesharedinformationonmethanerecoveryandutilization,leavingsubstantialgapsindisclosure.Incontrasttocoalcompanies,ChineseoilandgascompanieshaveahigherlevelOfinformationdisclosure.LargeoilandgascompaniesinChinahavesetemissionsreductiontargetsandaredisclosingtheirprogressthroughenvironmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)reportsandinternationalplatforms.Comparedwithinternationalcounterparts,Chinesecompaniescouldfurtherimprovethelevelofdetailintheirdisclosures,(seeExhibits7and8).RMIsuggeststhatChineseenergycompaniesenhancetheirtransparency,particularlyconcerningdisclosureinemissionsred