亚开行-亚洲发展展望（ADO）2023年12月：经济增长加快价格压力缓解（英）-2023.12_市.docx

HIGHLIGHTS Developing Asia's outlook remains solid despite global challenges. The 2023 growth forecast is revised up from Asian Development Outlook September2023,s projection, to 4.9% from 4.7%, on robust domestic demand. The 2024 forecast is maintained at 4.8%. East Asia,s growth forecast for 2023 is revised up to 4.7% on higher-than- e×pected third quarter growth in the People,s Republic of China. The forecast for 2024 is maintained at 4.2%. South Asia's projection is revised up to 5.7% for 2023, driven by Stronger- than-expected growth in India, and is unchanged at 6.0% for 2024. Growth forecasts for Southeast Asia are revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7% for 2024, mainly on weak external demand. The Caucasus and Central Asia's 2023 outlook has improved, with growth now forecast at 4.8% primarily on expecutions Offastergrowth in Kazakhstan. The 2024 forecast is revised down slightly to 4.6%. The Pacific's growth projections are unchanged at 3.5% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, on the continued recovery of international tourism and the resumption of public infrastructure projects. Developing Asia,s inflation is forecast to decline from 4.4% last year to a downward-adjusted 3.5% this year, before rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024. Downside risks are mainly associated with higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, which could trigger financial instability. Possible supply disruptions from El Ninoand the Russian invasion of Ukraine could renew energy and food security challenges, and rekindle inflation.ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKDECEMBER2023GROWTHUPBEAT5PRICEPRESSURESEASINGRecentDevelopmentsDevelopingAsia'sgrowthhasbeenupbeatthisyeardespitepersistentheadwinds.Healthydomesticdemand,strongremittances,andrecoveringtourismareunderpinningeconomicactivity,whichcontinuedtoexpandevenasinflationmoderated.Thesedrivers。仟Setthedragfromslowerglobalgrowthandthelaggedeffectsofmonetarypolicytightening,andtheyareexpectedtocontinuefosteringgrowthintheregionnextyear.Variousfactorsweighontheoutlook,however,includinghigher-for-longerglobalinterestrates,propertymarketweaknessinthePeople,sRepublicofChina(PRC),andsofterdemandfromadvancedeconomies.Theeconomicperformanceinthemajoradvancedeconomieshasdiverged,andoilpricesremainvolatile.ThelikelihoodofasoftlandingintheUnitedStateshasincreased.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheUScontinuedtoexpandinthefirsthalfof2023andsurprisedontheupsideinthethirdquarter(Q3).Growthacceleratedtoaseasonallyadjustedannualizedrate(saar)of5.2%inthequarter,spurredbyarapidincreaseinspendingongoodsandservices(box).Despiteatightlabormarket,headlineinflationcontinuedtodecelerate,slowingto3.2%inOctober,andpersonalconsumptionexpenditureinflationfellto3.0%inthesamemonth.Coreinflation,however,hasdeceleratedmoreslowlyTheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)RegionalEconomicOutlookTaskForceledthepreparationofarevisedoutlookforthisAsianDevelopmentOutlook.ThetaskforceischairedbytheEconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartmentandincludesrepresentativesoftheCentralandWestAsiaDepartment,EastASiaDepartment,PacificDepartment,SouthAsiaDepartment,andSoutheastAsiaDepartment.ADBplaceditsregularassistancetoAfghanistanonholdeffective15August2021.EffectiveIFebruary2021,ADBplacedatemporaryholdonsovereignprojectdisbursementsandnewcontractsinMyanmar.ADRand,at4.0%,isstilldoubletheFederalReserve,s2.0%targetIncontrasttothebuoyantUSeconomy,growthintheeuroarea,whileremainingpositiveintheyeartodate,hasslowed.Growthinthecurrencyunioncontractedby0.4%saarinQ3,depressedbyhighinterestratesandstickyinflation.LeadingindicatorsofeconomicactivitysuggestcontinuedweaknessinQ4acrosstheeuroarea,smajoreconomies.Japan'smodestrecoveryintourismandserviceswasoffsetbysubduedprivateinvestment,causingtheeconomytostagnateinQ3.OilpriceswerevolatileinOctoberfollowingtheonsetofthecurrentconflictintheMiddleEast.TheBrentcrudeoilpriceroseto$94.39/barrelon19Octoberbutfellbelow$80/barrelinthesecondhalfofNovember,asconcernsoverslowingglobaldemandoutweighedtheriskoftheconflictescalating.GrowthindevelopingAsiaacceleratedto5.0%intheyeartodate,buoyedbythePRC'scontinuedpost-pandemicreopeningandhealthydomesticdemandacrosstheregion(Figure1).StrongservicescontinuetobethemaindriverofgrowthinthePRC,offsettingadownturninthepropertysector.Supportedbypolicymeasurestosustainconsumption,industry,andthehousingmarket,growthpickeduptoafaster-than-expected4.9%inQ3.ThePRCeconomyexpandedby5.2%inthefirst3quartersoftheyear,upfrom3.0%forthewholeof2022,despitethedragfromtheproperty-marketcorrection.India'sgrowthalsoaccelerated,to7.1%inthefirst3quartersofthecalendaryear,drivenbystrongindustrialproductionandinvestment.Theboostfrompost-pandemicreopeninginmostSoutheastAsianeconomiesiswaning,andmerchandisegoodsexportsfromhigh-incometechnologyexportersremainssubduedalthoughtheyhavestabilized.Purchasingmanagers,indexes(PMIs)suggestthatmanufacturinginseveraloftheregion,sexport-orientedeconomieswasstillmutedinOctober(TableI).PMIsstayedbelow50theindexthresholdindicatingimprovementinMalaysia,theRepublicofKorea,andTaipei,China.Oneencouragingsignisthatglobalsemiconductordemandhasturnedthecorner,withgrowthturningpositiveinOctober.PMIswereconsistentlyabove50formostoftheyearinIndia,Indonesia,andthePhilippines,buoyedbystrongdomesticdemand.Headlineinflationacrosstheregioncontinuestodeclinetowarditspre-pandemicaverage,assupplysidepressurescoolandthelaggedeffectsofearliermonetarytighteningtakehold(Figure2).DisinflationcanbeseenacrossmostofdevelopingAsia,ssubregions,drivenprimarilybydeceleratingFigure 1 ContributionstoGDPGrowth,2022and2023toDateThepickupingrowthinthePRCandIndiathisyearisoffsettingexternally-drivenweaknessinothereconomies. Total consumption Total investments Netesports CDP growthPercentage pointsASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, GDP = gross domestic product. PRC = People's Republic of China. Q = quarter.Notes: Economies included are those that have available quarterly GDP data with demand-side breakdowns, which account for about 90% of developing Asia. Components do not add up to the total due to statistical discrepancies and the chain-linking method. All data are in calendar years. QI-Q3 2023 GDP growth is the percentage growth rate of GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2023 for the same period in 2022.Sources: Haver Analytics; CEIC Data Company.Table1PurchasingManagers'IndexinSelectedDevelopingAsianEconomiesManufacturingactivityremainsmutedinseveraltechnologyexport-orientedeconomies;servicesremainstrong.Economy2023JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctManufacturingPMI,seasonallyadjustedIndia55.455.356.457.258.757.857.758.657.555.5Philippines53.552.752.55l.452.250.95l.949.750.652.4Indonesia5l.35l.25l.952.750.352.553.353.952.35l.5Singapore49.850.049.949.749.549.749.849.950.150.2RepublicofKorea48.548.547.648.148.447.849.448.949.949.8VietNam47.45l.247.746.745.346.248.750.549.749.6PRC49.25l.650.049.550.950.549.25l.050.649.5Taipei1China44.349.048.647.144.344.844.144.346.447.6Thailand54.554.853.160.458.253.250.748.947.847.5Malaysia46.548.448.848.847.847.747.847.846.846.8ServicesPMI1seasonallyadjustedIndia57.259.457.862.06l.258.562.360.16l.058.4PRC52.955.057.856.457.153.954.15l.850.250.4ServicesPMI,notseasonallyadjustedSriLanka50.248.755.149.653.556.759.557.654.756.2Philippines53.754.953.456.954.053.048.853.053.250.1PMI=purchasingmanagers'index;PRC=People'sRepublicofChina.Notes:Pinktoredindicatesdeterioration(<50)andwhitetogreenindicatesimprovement(>50).SeriesforSingaporeisnotseasonallyadjusted.Source:C曰CDataCompany.Figure 2 ContributionstoInflationinDevelopingAsiabyFood,Energy,andCorePriceBasketEnergyandfoodpriceinflationratescontinuetorecedetopre-pandemiclevels,asdoescoreinflation.HEnergyrelatedFoodandaalhdicbeverageElCore"HeadlinePercentagepoints6,.IllllIlllHlhin-1-AverageJunDecJunDecJDecJunOct2015192020202120222023Note:DevelopingAsiainthisfigurecovers22economies,comprising94%ofregionaloutput.Sources:AsianDevelopmentBankcalculationsusingdatafromHaverAnalytics,CEICDataCompany,andofficialsources.energyandfoodpriceinflation.ConsumerpricesinthePRCflatlinedinQ3onlowerfoodprices,evenascoreinflationremainedslightlypositive.IntherestofEastAsia,pricepressuresacceleratedinrecentmonthsduetoweather-relatedincreasesinfoodpricesintheRepublicofKoreaandTaipeitChina.CoreinflationacrossdevelopingAsiacontinuedtoslowinQ3fromthesameperiodlastyear,butremainedelevatedinsomeeconomiesduetohigherinputandservicesprices.TheCaucasusandCentralAsiahadthelargestaveragefallincoreinflationduringthequarteronsubstantialdeclinesininflationfornonfoodandservices-relateditems,suchasrecreation,hotelsandrestaurants,andhealthcarecosts.CentralbanksinmanydevelopingAsianeconomieshavepausedmonetarypolicytightening.Withpricepressureseasing,headlineinflationisnowbackwithintargetrangesformanyeconomiesintheregion.Monetaryauthoritieshaverespondedbyadjustingtheirpolicyratehikingcycle.Roughlytwo-thirdsofcentralbankdecisionsthisyearhavebeentoholdrates,andsomecentralbankshaveevenstartedtoloosenpolicy-notably,inArmenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kazakhsun,thePRC,SriLanka,Uzbekistan,andVietNam.Riskpremiumsnarrowed,butportfoliooutflowsincreased.FinancialconditionsmoderatelyimprovedfromISeptemberto30November.Riskpremiumsnarrowedby48basispointsandcurrenciesappreciatedslightlyagainsttheUSdollar.Equitymarkets,followingupsanddownsamidchangingexpectationsoverFederalReservepolicy,byNovembermademarginalgains.However,netportfoliooutflowsintheregiontotaled$18.3billionintheperiod,partiallyreversinggainsearlierintheyear.Growthinthemajoradvancedeconomiesovertheforecasthorizonwillbedampenedbythelaggedeffectsofmonetarytightening.TheforecastfortheUSfor2023isrevisedupto2.4%,higherthanlastyear,s1.9%,followingQ3,sunexpectedlystrongexpansion.Growthisexpectedtoweakento1.8%nextyear,affectedbythelingeringimpactofelevatedinterestratesoneconomicactivity.Theeuroarea'sgrowthforecastsforthisyearandnextarerevisedslightlydownonweakerindustrialactivityandpersistingtightfinancialconditions.Japan,sgrowthforecastsforbothyearsarelargelyunchangedfromtheearlierprojections,althoughmodestimprovementsareexpectedforexportdemand,inboundtourism,andcapitalinvestment.GDP GrowthInflation20222023September December2024September December20222023September December2024September DecemberDeveloping Asia4.34.74.94.84.84.43.63.53.53.6Developing Asia excluding the PRC5.54.54.55.05.06.76.36.44.95.0Caucasus and Central Asia5.14.64.84.74.612.910.610.98.08.4Kazakhstan3.24.14.54.34.315.012.714.07.68.7East Asia2.84.44.74.24.22.31.00.92.12.1Hong Kong, China-3.54.33.63.33.31.92.5Zl2.12.1People's Republic of China3.04.95.24.54.52.00.70.52.02.0Republic of Korea2.61.31.32.22.25.13.33.62.22.5Taipei1China2.41.21.22.72.72.92.02.42.02.0South Asia6.75.45.76.06.08.28.68.66.66.7India7.26.36.76.76.76.75.55.54.24.2Southeast Asia5.64.64.34.84.75.14.24.23.33.5Indonesia5.35.05.05.0S.04.23.63.63.03.0Malaysia8.74.54.24.94.63.43.02.82.72.7Philippines7.65.75.76.26.25.86.26.24.04.0Singapore3.6l.01.02.52.56.15.04.93.03.0Thailand2.63.52.53.73.36.12.51.52.32.3Viet Nam8.05.85.26.06.03.23.83.84.04.0The Pacific6.13.53.52.92.95.24.94.94.54.5Table 2 GDP Growth and Inflation, %GDP = gross domestic product, PRC = People's Republic of China.Note: Developing Asia refers co the 46 developing members of the Asian Development Bank. Caucasus and Central Asia comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan. Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekisan. East Asia comprises Hong Kong, China; Mongolia; the Peoples Republic of China; the Republic of Korea; TaipehChina. South Asia comprises Afghanistan. Bangladesh, Bhuunt India. Maldives. Nepal. Pakistan, Sri Lanka. Southeast Asia comprises Brunei Darussalam. Cambodia. Indonesia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic. Malaysia. Myanmar, the Philippines. Singapore. Thailand. Timor-Lesce. Viet Nam. The Pacific comprises the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia. Fiji. Kiribati, the Marshall Islands. Nauru, Niuet Palau. Papua New Guinea. Samoa. Solomon Islands. Tonga. Tuvalu. Vanuatu.Sources: Asian Development Bank. 2023. Asian Development Outlook September 2023; Asian Development Bank estimates.DevelopingAsia'sgrowthforecastforthisyearisrevisedupto4.9%fromAsianDevelopmentOutlookSeptember2023s4.7%projectionandmaintainedat4.8%for2024(Table2).TheoutlookfortheregionremainsconsistentwiththeassumptionsmadeinSeptember,withdomesticdemandandservicescontinuingtosupportgrowthinto2024andmanufacturinggraduallypickingup.Therevisiontotheregion's2023growthprojectionisdrivenbyanupwardadjustmenttothePRC'sandIndia'sgrowthprojections.GrowthisalsorevisedupfortheCaucasusandCentralAsia.ButSoutheastAsiawillgrowslowerthanexpectedduetodownwardrevisionsforMalaysia,Thailand,andVietNam.Theregion'sinflationforecastisreviseddownmarginallyto3.5%for2023onalowerforecastforinflationinthePRC.Cruciallyfortheregion,ricepricesrosetoa15-yearhighinmidNovemberasmarketexpectationsadjustedtoIndia'sexpandedrestrictionsonriceexports(Figure3).Thishascreatedupwardpressureonfoodprices,particularlyforrice-importingeconomies.Fallingglobalfuelandwheatprices,however,helpedoffsettheimpactonoverallinflation.Theinflationforecastfor2024isrevisedupmarginallyto3.6%onupsideshocksthatarekeepingpricepressureshigherthanpreviouslyexpectedinBangladesh,Kazakhstan,Myanmar,andtheRepublicofKorea.Figure3CommodityPricesRicepricesrosesharplyinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Notes:RicereferscoThailand5%brokenmilledwhiterke.WheatreferstotheUnitedStaceshardredwinterwheatSources:Bloomberg;WorldBankCommodityPriceForecasts,October2023;AsianDevelopmentBankestimatesDownsideriskscontinuetocloudtheoutlook,underscoringtheneedforpolicymakersindevelopingAsiatoremainvigilant.Theglobaleconomicenvironmentremainsuncertain.PersistentlyelevatedcoreinflationintheUSandtheeuroareahashardenedcommitmentsbytheFederalReserveandEuropeanCentralBanktokeeprateshigherforlongertoreturninflationtotheirtargets(Figure4).Asaresult,debtrepaymentandbankingturmoilriskswillremainelevatedovertheforecasthorizon.AsiaandthePacificwouldbeaffectedtovaryingdegrees,withthoseeconomieshavinghigherdebtburdensandweakmacroeconomicfundamentalsbei