剑桥风险研究中心-全球企业的风险管理视角（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesCambridgeRiskFrameworkRISKMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVESOFGLOBALCORPORATIONSCentreforRiskStudiesUniversityofCAMBRIDGEJudgeBusinessSchlirmDevelopingriskprofessionalsAcknowledgementsCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesgratefullyacknowledgestheInstituteofRiskManagementforsupportingtheresearcheffortssummarisedinthisreport.TheCentreisgratefulfortheexpertiseprovidedbyourresearchteam,collaboratorsandsubjectmatterspecialists.AnymisinterpretationinuseoftheadviceprovidedisentirelytheresponsibilityoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.PaperCitation:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,2018.RiskManagementPerspectivesofGlobalCorporations.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchoolandInstituteofRiskManagement.orTuveson,M;Ralph,D;Copic,J;Majumdar,O;Deng,K.,2018.RiskManagementPerspectivesofGlobalCorporations.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchoolandInstituteofRiskManagement.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesProjectTeamJenniferCopiczResearchAssociateKenDeng,ResearchAssistantCambridge Centre for Risk StudiesUniversity of Cambridge Judge Business SchoolTrumpington StreetCambridge, CB2 IAG United Kingdomenquiries.riskjbs.cam.ac.ukWebsite and Research Platformwww.jbs.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/centres/riskInstitute of Risk ManagementSackville House143 -149 Fenchurch StreetLondonEC3M 6BNUnited KingdomWebsitewww.theirm.orgOliviaMajumdar,ResearchAssistantProfessorDanielRalph,AcademicDirectorDrMichelleTuveson,ExecutiveDirectorCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesResearchTeamJamesBourdeau,ResearchAssistantOliverCarpenter,ResearchAssistantDrAndrewCoburn,DirectorofAdvisoryBoardDrJenniferDaffron,ResearchAssociateTimothyDouglas,ResearchAssistantTamaraEvan,ResearchAssistantKellyQuantrill,ResearchAssistantSimonRuffle,DirectorofResearchandInnovationDrAndySkeltonzSeniorRiskResearcherAndrewSmith,ResearchAssistantKaylaStrong,ResearchAssistantTheviewscontainedinthisreportareentirelythoseoftheresearchteamoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesanddonotimplyanyendorsementoftheseviewsbytheorganisationssupportingtheresearch,ororconsultantsandcollaborators.TheresultsoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesresearchpresentedinthisreportareforinformationpurposesonly.Thisreportisnotintendedtoprovideasufficientbasisonwhichtomakeaninvestmentdecision.TheCentreisnotliableforanylossordamagearisingfromitsuse.AnycommercialusewillrequirealicenseagreementwiththeCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.Copyright©2018byCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.ContentsForewardfromIRM5ExecutiveSummary6VulnerabilitiesofCorporations62018EnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM)SurveyResults6SectorConsiderationsofTopRisks8ExplorationofRisksthroughScenarioAnalysis9RiskManagementTools9TopMitigationStrategies9RoleOflnsuranceinRiskManagement9FuturePerspectives10Section 1: Introduction11Section 2: ThePresentStateofGlobalCorporations12TheGlobalisationLandscapeforCorporations12GrowthofCorporations13VulnerabilitiesofCorporations14UnderstandingaCorporationRisks15Cross-CompanyRiskAggregations15DemandingBetterCulturesofCorporations17Section 3: ScopeofEnterpriseRiskManagement18Section 4: TopEnterpriseRisksFacingCorporations19ANetworkPerspectiveofTopEnterpriseRisks20SectorConsiderationsofTopRisks21TopRisk#1-Financials:Revenues,ProntszSharePrice22TopRisk#2-OperationalPerformance23TopRisk#3-Regulatory,StandardsandReporting24TopRisk#4-Reputation/Brand25TopRisk#5-SecurityofEnterpriseIncludingCyberSecurity27TopRisk#6-BusinessContinuityandCrisisManagement29TopRisk#7-MacroEconomicandTradeFactors30TopRisk#8-HealthandSafety31TopRisk#9-Geopolitical32TopRisk#10-HumanCapital33BottomRisk#1-GenderandDiversity34Section 5: TrendRisks36ExplorationofRisksandTrendsthroughScenarioAnalysis37ApplicationsofScenarios37Section 6: RiskManagementTooIsandProcesses39RiskManagementTooIs39TopMitigationStrategies41BudgetPrioritiesforTopRisks42RoleOflnsuranceinRiskManagement42Section 7: ConclusionandFutureResearch44Appendix A: Materials,MethodsandExpertise46ResearchEngagementwithSubjectMatterSpecialists462018ERMOnlineSurvey46SurveyRespondentPronles47Appendix B: FiveTrendsDrivingMacroChanges52FutureoftheDollar52Climate&SustainabilityRegulation53GrowthofLiabilityRisk53HumanCapital,AgingandLongevity54Technology,AlandRobotics56Bibliography58AbouttheInstituteofRiskManagement(IRM)TheIRMistheleadingprofessionalbodyforEnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM).Wedriveexcellenceinmanagingrisktoensureorganisationsarereadyfortheopportunitiesandthreatsofthefuture.Wedothisbyprovidinginternationallyrecognisedqualincationsandtraining,publishingresearchandguidanceandsettingprofessionalstandards.Forover30yearsourqualincationshavebeentheglobalchoiceOfqualincationsforriskprofessionalsandtheiremployers.Weareanindependent,notforprontbody,withmembersworkinginallindustries,inallriskdisciplinesandinallsectorsaroundtheworld.ForewordfromIRMWearedelightedtohavehadtheopportunitytosupporttheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesinproducingthisresearchintotheriskmanagementperspectivesofglobalcorporations.IRMisuniquelyplacedtobringtogetherthepracticalexperienceofourexpertmemberswiththerigourandinsightofferedbyglobalcentresofacademicexcellence.Thishelpsusalladvancetheunderstandingandpracticeofriskmanagementfortheultimatebenentofindividuals,organisationsandsociety.Aswehadanticipated,thisresearchpresentssomechallengesandalsoofferssomeguidancefortheprofession.Thereisclearlyagrowingawarenessofrisks(andopportunities)arisingfromdigitaltechnology,includingcybersecurity.Wehavealsonotedthereportedscarcityofpracticaltoolstohelporganisationsanalyseandmanagesomeoftheirkeyreportedriskareas.IRMwillensurethatoureducation,trainingandprofessionalsupportevolvesswiftlytosupportthisnewenvironment.TherearesomeinterestinglessonshereaboutthevariednatureofEnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM)functionsintheseglobalcorporations,mostobviouslythatthereisasyetnoacceptedviewonthemission,scopeandultimately,value,ofERM.Howeveratthesametimethereappearstobegrowingtake-upofERM-Iedapproacheslikeencouraginghealthyriskcultures,trainingandsupplychaininitiatives.ThisisaclearchallengethatreinforcesOurdeterminationtospreadgoodpracticeandhelporganisationsbuildcompetencytomanagetheirriskseffectively.Wealsonotethattheseglobalcorporationsseerisktransferviainsuranceasanimperfectriskmitigationmeasure,withalackofrelevantproducts,capacityandtailoringcitedaslimitationsontheuseofinsurancewithintheirERMprogrammes.Howeverthereisopportunityherefortheinsuranceindustryandwecalloninsurerstorespondandremainrelevantbyutilisingtechnologyanddevelopingzinsurtech,solutionsinpartnershipwiththeriskprofession.Wearenowlookingforwardtothenextphaseoftheresearchin2019whichwilltakeadeeperlookatriskmanagementpracticesinthevaluechainsfortheenergyandretailsector.IwouldliketothankalltheorganisationsandindividualswhocontributedtothisworkandalsotheCambridgeteamfortheirfocusedandthoroughapproach,bringingsomenewthinkingonconceptsandtechniquesintotheriskmanagementspace.SocratesCoudounaris,BEng(Hons)MScFCIICIPCFIRMIRMChairRiskManagementDirector,RGAInternationalReinsuranceCompanyExecutiveSummaryCorporationsareavitalcomponentofaneconomy.Theirhealthandwealthcanbepotentindicatorsofthebroaderstateoftherelevanteconomyandsocietyasawhole.Crisesintheprivatesectorcanprovideearlywarningindications,andoccasionallyaredrivers,ofwiderandpotentiallysystemicfailures.Withinanorganisation,goodpracticesinriskmanagementservetoavoidorrespondeffectivelytocrises,whereaspoorpracticesmaysignalweaknesses.Inthisreport,weseektobetterunderstandtheriskmanagementperspectivesandpracticesofglobalcorporations.TheresearchpresentedinthisreportispartoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies'researchtrackoncorporateriskpronling.InpartnershipwiththeInstituteofRiskManagement(IRM),itisinformedbyviewsfromriskmanagementspecialistsrepresentingbothprivateandpublicsectors.Thesummaryandnarrativeregardingthetoprisksfacingcorporationsaretheresultofelicitationthroughacombinationofindividualinterviews;surveysandreal-timepollsofaudiencesatworkshopsandfocusgroups;andthein-depthonline2018EnterpriseRiskManagementsurvey.Thisexpanseofinputspaintsabroadviewoftheperceptionsofriskatcompaniesandtheirrespectiveapproachestoriskmanagementandmitigation.Thegeneralobjectivesofouroverallresearchprogrammesaretobetterunderstandcurrentviews,practicesandmitigationsofrisksatcorporationsandhowtheyareadaptingtomeetfuturechallengesandopportunities.Thefocusandintentionofthisreportistobetterunderstandtheperspectivesandpracticesofriskmanagementatglobalcorporations.Webelievethatregulations,mandates,structures,andcodesgoverningpubliclylistedcorporationsprovidecommonalityfortheirfoundationsforriskmanagementpractices.WealsoreferSpecincallytoglobalversusmultinationalrporationstofocusmoreontheglobalnatureofexchanges,flows,andconnectionsversuspresenceatphysicallocationsandsites.Webelievethechallengesandcomplexitiesofriskmanagementbroughtonbythemulti-dimensionalnatureofglobaloperationsaremuchmoresignincantforthissubsetoforganisations.Whilethisreportfocussesonglobalcorporations,weexpectotherorganisationsincludingthoseinthepublicsectortonndconsiderableoverlapsandvaluethenndings.VulnerabilitiesofCorporationsGlobaltradehasbeenoneoftheprincipaldriversofeconomicgrowthinrecentdecades.Theworldisinastateofpeakglobalisationasmeasuredbyexportsandimportsasapercentageofgrossdomesticproductfor17industrialisednations-thelowof7.5%afterWWIIjumpedto47.2%inthecurrentperiod.However,thecurrentsituationisnotguaranteedtolastindennitely;withrenewedchallengestoglobalismcomingfromresurgentnationalism,protectionismandrollingbackOfinternationaltradeagreements.Corporationsmustcontendwithbothinternalandexternalrisksthatthreatentheirbusinessmodels.Theyarefacedwithcontinuingandgrowingpressuresfromalargesetofstakeholdersandarekeenlyawareofthemanypotentialnegativefactorsthatcanimpactonrporateprontabilityandlongevity.TherehasbeenareductioninthenumberofUSpubliclylistedcompaniesfrom8,000inthe1990sto3z627in2017 ("CRSP - The Center for Research in Security Pricesw n.d.)zandareductionfrom23publiclylistedcompaniespermillioninhabitantsin1975to11in2016 (Stulz 2018).Morefundamentally,only200ofthetopcompaniesbyearningsaccountedforallthepromtsinthe2015USStoCkmarket.Theremaining3,281publiclylistedcompanieslostmoney. (Sommer 2018)2018EnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM)SurveyResultsThe2018EnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM)surveycanvassedtotheIRM(IRM) ("Institute of Risk Management/ n.d.)membershipandCambridgezSChiefRiskOfncer(CRO)andERMmmunities.Wehad264surveyrespondentsanswering85questionsinthefollowingcategories:Organisational/CompanyDescriptions,RoleinManagingRisk,RiskGovernanceandCulture,RiskManagementToolsandProcesses,CrisisResponseCapabilitiesandRiskMitigationStrategies.Thesurveyreportsvariouscharacteristicsofrespondents,companiesandroles,withoutreferencetoindividualororganisationalidentities.CompanysizebyannualsalesisreportedasfollowsinfigureA:FigureA:CompanyAnnualSalesofSurveyRespondentsSurveyrespondentsalsoreportedtheirtopnvecountriesofresponsibility.ThemostrepresentedcountriesincludeUSzUK,GermanyandChina.ThesearefollowedbyAfricaandEurope,excludingGermany.Respondentsrankedtheirtoprisksfacingtheircompaniesforatwelvemonthtimehorizonasapointofreference.Thetopnverisksinthisyear'ssurveyinclude(1)Finandalszrevenues,prontszshareprice,(2)Operationalperformance,(3)Regulatorystandardsandreporting,(4)Reputation/brand,(5)Securityofenterpriseincludingcybersecurity.WenotethatGenderanddiversityriskisrankedatthebottomofrisksbysurveyrespondentsacrossallsectors.Despiteitslowprioritisation,webelieveitsgrowingvisibilitymakesitworthhighlightinginthisreport.Seebelowforafulllistofrisksandtheirrankings.Source:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies2018ERMSurveyTopEnterpriseRisksofPotentialConcernforCompaniesintheNext12Months.Source:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies2018ERMSurvey.SeeAppendixAforindexdescriptionSectorConsiderationsofTopRisksWereporttoprisksbybusinesssectorusingtheGlobalIndustryClassincationStandard(GICS)(“GICS - MSCI/z n.d.).ThetopfourenterpriserisksaredisplayedbyeachGICSsectorinthesectorviewgraphicbelow.ThetopenterprisewiderisksareheavilyrepresentedacrossmostsectorssuchasFinancialriskandReputationrisk.Howevercertainrisksaresectorspednc.AlthoughGeopoliticalriskisrelativelylowranking(9outof10)bysurveyrespondents,sectorssuchasEnergy,TelecommunicationsandMaterialsrankithighly.RegulatoryStandardsriskisthehighestriskfortheFinancialsandInformationTechnologysectorsandthesecondhighestforHealthcareandTelecommunications.SectorViewofTopEnterpriseRisksforCompanies.ENERG)(Healthsafety(20.1%)TelecoaamunicationservicesHEALTHCAREIAAATERIALSGeopolitical(34.6%)Revenues,pronts,shareprice(26%)Regulatorystandards(24.7%)Operationalperformance(28.3%)Regulatorystandards(24.6%)Environment(26.9%)Healthsafety(26.9%)Revenues,pronts,shareprice(26.3%)Operationalperformance(19%)Geopolitical(24.7%)Reputation(24.7%)Reputation(23.9%)BusinessContinuity(23.2%)IhGeopolitical(23.1%)Operationalperformance(23.1%)DREALESTATEIIFINANCIALSRevenues,p>ntszshareprice(29.9%)Marketshare(22.1%)Regulatorystandards(29.5%)Reputation(21.7%)consumerDiscreticIARYINDUSTRIALSSecurity(27.6%)Reputation(27.1%)Operationalperformance(25.7%)BusinessContinuityReputation(31.3%)Operationalperformance(23.8%)Operationalperformance27.9%)Healthsafety(20.1%)Revenues,prontszshareprice(28.6%)Operationalperformance(20.2%)IIGoV&NGO OperationalSecurity performance(25.1%) (26.2%)1INFORMATIONTECHN0LYUTILITIESHealthsafetyBusiness(32%)Continuityt)<½Regulatorystandards(33.6%)ILegalliabilities(20.7%)Security(23.6%)B国Reputation(25.6%)Regulatorystandards(23.1%)Security(27.6%)BusinessContinuity(18.1%)Operationalperformance(25.2%)Revenues,profits,shareprice(21.4%)Revenues,pronts,shareprice(21.3%)Source:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies2018ERMSurveyExplorationofRisksthroughScenarioAnalysisScenarioanalysisisacommonapproachusedbymanagerstoviewtheirorganisationsinanimaginedstateandtohelpplanforuncertaintyinbothbusinessandglobalenvironments.Ofthesurveyrespondents,63%reportusageofscenariosaspartoftheirbusinessriskanalyses.Businessstresstestscenariosareprominentaspartofbusinesscontinuityassessmentandtraining.Longertermorstrategicscenariosaretypicalinscenarioplanning,whichlooksattheimpactofsocietalchange,drivenbyunderlyingforcesortrends,onabusiness.Scenarioapplicationareasreportedbysurveyrespondentsaresummarisedbelow:ScenarioApplicationAreasAnnualsupplierrenewalandreviewsCapitalallocationsandreviewsContentforannualreportsandviabilitystatements