国际能源署-乌干达能源转型计划（英）-2023_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

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AgenCy!SH!gnguwuecuosuejA6jeu3epueBDeiINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminestheIEAmemberIEAassociationfullspectrumofenergyissuescountries:countries:includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKorea1.ithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTiirkiyeArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineThispublicationandanyUnitedKingdommapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,totheUnitedStatesdelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,TheEuropeancityorarea.CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEARevisedversion,December2023Informationnoticefoundat:Source: IEA.International Energy Agency Website:eAbstractUganda'sEnergyTransitionPlan(ETP)isastrategicroadmapforthedevelopmentandmodernisationofUganda,senergysector.Itchartsanambitious,yetfeasiblepathwaytoachieveuniversalaccesstomodernenergyandpowerthecountry'seconomictransformationinasustainableandsecureway.TheplanwasdevelopedbyUganda,sMinistryofEnergyandMineralDevelopment,withsupportfromtheInternationalEnergyAgency,andprovidesthegroundworkforthegovernmentsupcomingIntegratedEnergyResourceMasterPlan.TheanalysisdoesnotjustlookatUgandainisolationbutconsidershowglobaltrendsareinfluencingandopeningupnewopportunities,notablydrivenbyrapidlyevolvingcleantechnologycostsandshiftsinenergyandclimatefinance.Particularfocusispaidtomakinguseofthecountry'sconsiderableenergyandmineralresources,andparlayingthisintoeconomicdevelopmentforUganda,acorepillartoensurethepathwayintheETPisajustandinclusiveone.Thereportprovidesdetailedsector-by-sectoranalysis,includingkeytargetsandmilestones,estimatesofinvestmentneeds,andincludeshigh-levelrecommendationsforitsimplementation.Whilethefocusofthereportisfromnowto2050,theETPalsohighlightskeystepstofurthertheenergysector,sdecarbonisationbeyond2050andestimatesatwhatpointtheenergysectorispoisedtoreachnetzero.ForewordUgandaisinthemidstofanunprecedentedeconomictransformation.Thecountryisamongboththefastestgrowingpopulationsandeconomiesintheworld,withexpansionofmajorindustriesfuellingthetransformation.Thesetrendsaresettocontinueasweheadintoacriticaldecadeofeconomicgrowthanddevelopment.Ugandahasmadesignificantstridesinrecentyears,witharemarkableexpansionofelectricityaccess,surpassingthegrowthratesofsub-SaharanAfrica.Overthepasttwodecades,ourpowersectorhasgrownalmostfivefold,significantlyreducingtheinefficientuseofimportedoilforpowergeneration.Since2015,wehaveprovidedcleanercookingalternativestomorethan3.5millionUgandans,liberatingthemfromthehealthhazardsandtime-consumingburdensoftraditionalfirewoodandcharcoalstoves.However,comparatively,weremainenergypoor,withlowlevelsofelectricityandcleancookingaccess,andamongcountrieswiththelowestlevelsofmodernenergyconsumptionpercapitaglobally.Around90%ofUganda,senergyneedsarestillmetbysolidbioenergy,givenitistheonlyenergysourceavailabletomanyinruralareas.Thisisnotsustainable,norisitanoptiontofuelfuturegrowthinUganda.ThisistheimperativethatmotivatedtheEnergyTransitionPlan:buildtheenergysystemfoundationsthatwillbenecessarytopowerUganda,sfutureinajust,safe,secure,affordableandsustainablemanner.Therefore,wemustbuildonthecurrentsuccessinacceleratingaccesstocleanenergyandpushfurthertorealiseourvisionforamodernandprosperousUganda.Fortunately,Ugandaisblessedwithampleenergyresources,whichtheEnergyTransitionPlanmakesuseoftosecurelymeetgrowingenergyneedswhilealsorealisingtheeconomicgrowthandjobcreationpotentialthatharnessingtheseresourcesholds.TheEnergyTransitionPlantouchesonallaspectsoftheMinistryofEnergyandMineralDevelopment'swork,coveringrenewables,energyefficiency,nuclearpower,oilandgasresources,anddepositsofcriticalmineralsthatarekeytoglobalenergytransitions.ItalsoreinforcesUganda,salreadyprominentroleasastrongregionalpartnerfordevelopingamorerobust,integratedenergyinfrastructureacrosstheregion,whichsupportsourcollectivegoalsforenergysecurityandgreatercollaboration.Ugandaisfullycommittedtoasustainablevisionforitsdevelopment.AlongsidethelaunchoftheEnergyTransitionPlan,Ugandaannouncesitsintentiontoreachnetzeroemissionsinitsenergysectorby2065,whichpavesthewayforourcountrytoexploreaformaleconomy-widetargetforclimateneutrality.Ugandarecognisesandaffirmsitsresponsibilitytotakeactiontomitigaterisingemissionsandseesthatthesustainablewayofdevelopmentisincreasinglytheeconomicway,allowingthecountrytoplayasignificantroleingrowingcleanenergysupplychainsandtappingintonewopportunitiesforcarbon-relatedfinancialflows.TheEnergyTransitionPlanwasdevelopedinconcertwithanumberofinternationalpartners,whoprovidedinputandhelpedvalidatetheplan,stechnicalrobustnessandambition.Wearethankfulfortheirsupport,especiallytheInternationalEnergyAgency,andlookforwardtodeepeningthesepartnershipsasweturntoimplementation.ThelaunchoftheEnergyTransitionPlanisaclearsignalthatdemonstratesUganda'sopennessforinvestment.Wewelcomecompaniesandinvestorstoworkwithus,exploringpublic-privatepartnershipsandnewinnovativeapproachestofinancingthecountry,senergyandcriticalmineralsindustries.Weknowtheprivatesectorneedstobeassuredofaconsistentdirectionoftravel,andthisplanprovidestheclear,long-termstrategicsignalstoanswerthatneed.Eventhoughwemustremainadaptablealongtheway,UgandadoesnotintendtorelentfromtheoutcomesandkeymilestonesoftheEnergyTransitionPlan.Thesustainabledevelopmentofourenergyandmineralssectorsisconsideredvitaltonotonlyourownprosperity,butthatoftheworld,s.Ugandaiscommittedtobuildingamoreliveableplanetforfuturegenerations.Weareproudtounveilthistransformativelong-termstrategyandinvitetheworldtojoinusasweembarkonthedemandingyetrewardingjourneyoftheimplementationoftheEnergyTransitionPlan.RuthNankabirwaSsentamuMinisterofEnergyandMineralDevelopment,UgandaAcknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsTheEnergyTransitionPlan(ETP)wasdevelopedandproducedthroughcollaborationbetweenUganda'sMinistryofEnergyandMineralDevelopment(MEMD)andtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).TheETPwasdesignedanddirectedbyLauraCozzi1Director,Sustainability,TechnologyandOutlooksattheIEAandDrGeraldBanaga-Baingi,AssistantCommissioner,TechnicalPlanning,attheMEMD.Oversightofthereport,sdevelopmentwasprovidedbyseniorofficialsfromUganda'sMinistryofEnergyandMineralDevelopment,includingtheHon.RuthNankabirwaSsentamu,MinisterofEnergyandMineralDevelopment,theHon.SidroniusOkaasaiOpolot,MinisterofStateforEnergy,theHon.PeterLokeris,MinisterofStateforMineralDevelopment,IreneBateebe,PermanentSecretaryandGraceTusiime5UnderSecretary.DanielWetzel,HeadoftheTrackingSustainableTransitionsUnitattheIEA,co-ordinatedandledtheanalysis,andproductionofthereport.PrincipalauthorswereNouhounDiarra,DarlainEdeme,EmmaGordon,YannickMonschauer,IsabellaNotarpietro,ArthurRoge,GabrielSaive,CarloStaraceandGianlucaTonolo.OthercontributionsweremadebymanycolleaguesfromacrosstheIEA,includingCaleighAndrews,BlandineBarreau1EmileBelin-Bourgogne5JoseMiguelBermudezMenendez,JennyBirkeland,TomasBredarioldeOliveira,EricBuisson,VittoriaChen,DanielCrow,AmritaDasgupta,SyrineElAbed,MathildeFajardy,VictorGarciaTapia,AlexandreGouy,PabloHevia-Koch,JeromeHilaire,PaulHugues,BrunoIdini,MartinKuppers5AliceLatella5RitaMadeira,PeterLevi,JinsunLim5CarsonMaconga,TaylorMorrison,FrancescoPavan,DianaPerezSanchez,LeonieStaas,ApostolosPetropoulos,UweRemme,RichardSimon,ThomasSpencer,PouyaTaghavi-Moharamli,RyotaTaniguchi,TiffanyVassandAnthonyVautrin.ValuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovidedbyseniormanagementandcolleagueswithintheIEA.Inparticular,YasmineArsalane,StephanieBouckaert,JoelCouse,RebeccaGaghen,TimGould,KeisukeSadamoriandCeciliaTam.MarinaDosSantosandRekaKoczkaprovidedessentialsupport.DianeMunrocarriededitorialresponsibilityforthereport.ThanksgototheIEA,sCommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelpinproducingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlytoJethroMullen,PoeliBojorquez,CurtisBrainard,JonCuster,HortensedeRoffignac1AstridDumond,MerveErdil,GraceGordon,JuliaHorowitz,OliverJoy,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,JuliePuech5RobertStone,SamTarling1ClaraVallois,LucileWall,ThereseWalshandWonjikYang.TheIEA,sOfficeoftheLegalCounsel,OfficeofManagementandAdministration,andtheEnergyDataCentreprovidedassistancethroughoutthepreparationofthereport.SupportforenergymodellingwasalsoprovidedbySylvainCailandAurelienPeffenfromEnerData.ThisreportbenefitedfromUganda'sparticipationintheEnerqyMOdelIingPIatformforAfriCaandJOintSUmmerSChoOlOnModeIIinaToOISforSUStainabIeDeVelODmentrunbytheIEAinpartnershipwithClimateCompatibleGrowth.DrGeraldBanaga-Baingico-ordinatedandledtheUgandanteamofkeycontributors,includingHerbertAbigaba5EdwinaAhamize,JustineAkumu,IreneKeissyAtim5StevenSheruraBainenaama5DavidBirimumaso,BeatriceBusingyejGabrielData,MugiziHerbert,BrianIsabirye,EdwardMagadduIsabirye,SamanthaKamanzi,JonanKandwanaho,MercyKanyesigye,LoyolaKarobwa,HerbertKato,VincentKedi,ConnieKodet5JohnKyazze,AdellaKyohairwe,OketchMarkLazarus,MusaMukulu,ChristineMukwaya,HatimuMuyanja,CharlesMwesige,EmmanuelSandeNsubuga,EsterNyangoma,JamesMosesOmara5DesmondTutuOpio,DorothyOrishaba5DomisianoOwor,SimonPeterSsekitoleko,TonnySserubiri,DennisTusiimeTungotyo5EdsonTusiime,KaggwaUsamahandLawokoOliveWinnie.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyandGovernmentofUgandawouldliketoexpressappreciationtoAgenceFranaisedeDeveloppementfortheircontributiontotheCleanEnergyTransitionsProgrammeattheIEA5whichmadethisreportpossible.PeerreviewersManygovernmentofficialsandinternationalexpertsprovidedinputandreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theircommentsandsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:Rashid Ali AbdallaRob BailisSimon BatchelorKimball ChenPaulina ChiwanguWill ClementsElisa DerbySantos Jose Diaz PastorAfricanEnergyCommissionStockholmEnvironmentInstituteModernEnergyCookingServicesTheGlobalLPGPartnershipUNWomenModernEnergyCookingServicesCleanCookingAllianceUniversidadPontificiaComillasJeremy GascJesus Gavilan Marin Geir Hermansen Samuel Kajoba Matthew Leach Stella Mandago Thibault Martinelle Samson Masebinu Elizabeth Muchiri David NjugiIgnacio Perez-ArriagaElisa PuzzoIoCamilo Ramirez Gomez Juliette RoseMarc Trouyet Henri WaismanAgenceFranaisedeDeveloppementDelegationoftheEuropeanUniontoUgandaNoradNorwegianEmbassyinKampalaModernEnergyCookingServicesAfricanDevelopmentBankAgenceFranaisedeDeveloppementUSAIDGlobalLPGPartnershipGlobalOff-GridLightingAssociation(GOGLA)MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyandComillasPontificalUniversityInstituteofPopulationHealth,Universityof1.iverpoolKTHRoyalInstituteofTechnologyAgenceFranaisedeDeveloppementAgenceFranQaisedeDeveloppementInstitutduDeveloppementDurableetdesRelationsInternationales(IDDRI)TableofcontentsExecutivesummary10Chapter 1: Settingthescene151.1 Introduction151.2 Uganda,senergysystemstoday161.3 GuidingprinciplesoftheEnergyTransitionPlan211.4 Scenariodescriptions27Chapter 2: Uganda'sEnergyTransitionPlan282.1 Overview282.2 Energyaess332.3 Buildingsandagriculture422.4 Transport452.5 Industry482.6 Power552.7 Energysupply622.8 Emissions68Chapter 3: RealisingtheEnergyTransitionPlan753.1 Introduction753.2 Investment753.3 Financing803.4 Keyenablers823.5 Actionsandrecommendations903.6 NextstepsforoperationalisingtheEnergyTransitionPlan97Annexes98Annex A -Tablesforscenarioprojections98Annex B -Abbreviationsandacronyms104Annex C -Unitsofmeasure106ExecutivesummaryAvisionforenergisingUganda,seconomictransformationUgandaisamongthefastestgrowingcountriesintheworld.Maintainingthispaceofgrowthwouldamounttoaneconomictransformationforthecountry.Ugandaisstillalow-incomecountry,withaGDPpercapita40%belowthesub-SaharanAfricaaverage.However,inthelasttwodecades,realGDPhasgrownbyaround6%annually.TheIMFisforecastingsimilargrowthonthehorizon,whichwouldneedtobesustainedtomeetUganda'sdevelopmentandpovertyreductiongoals,includingreachingupper-middle-incomestatusby2040.Energysystemsmustmoderniseandexpandrapidlytomeettheseambitions,promptingUganda,sdecisiontodeveloptheEnergyTransitionPlan(ETP).Theobjectivesoftheplan,statedbyUganda'sMinistryofEnergyandMineralDevelopment(MEMD),are: Provideuniversalaccesstoelectricityandcleanercookingby2030. ModerniseanddiversifyUganda'senergymixandpromoteitsefficientuseacrossallsectorstosupportindustrialgrowth,povertyreductionandsocioeconomictransformation. Ensuresecureandaffordableenergysupply. MitigateenergyemissionsinlinewithUganda,sconditionalclimatecommitments,whichimplya20%reductioncomparedtobaselineemissionsin2030. PositionUgandaasanenergyhubfortheEastAfricanregion.Thisreport,producedinclosecollaborationwithUganda,providesanambitiousyetfeasiblepathwayfortheenergysectortomeetthesestrategicobjectives.GivenUganda,spointofdeparture,effortsmustbesteppeduptodevelopthecountry,senergysystems.Electricityandcleancookingaccessratesremainlow,ataround45%and15%,respectively,despiterecentprogressdrivenbystronggovernmentprogrammes.Modernenergyconsumptionpercapitaremainslow-around30timeslowerthantheaverageinadvancedeconomies.Solidbiomass,largelyfirewood,charcoal,andbagasseusedinbuildingsandindustry,accountsfor90%ofthecountry'sfinalenergyconsumptiontoday.Importantly,thecountryhasmanydomesticenergyandmineralresourcesthatcanhelprealisetheenergytransition.Ugandahasamplepotentialforsolar,hydroelectricandgeothermalpower.WiththeopeningoftheTilengaandKingfisheroilfieldsin2025,Ugandaissettobecomeanoilproducerandexporterforthefirsttime.Currentlythecountryimportsallitsoilproducts.ItalsohasnewgraphiteandrareearthprojectsinOromandMakuutuunderdevelopmentandholdsimportantdepositsofothercriticalminerals.Theseresources,ifharnessedwell,couldreinforcethetransitionandcontributetoUganda,seconomicgrowth.ThefirststepofthetransitionisreachinguniversalenergyaccessTherateofprogressrequiredtoreachuniversalaccessissteep,butnotunprecedented.PriortodisruptionsfromtheCovid-19pandemic,electricityaccessratesimprovedat5%annually,andcleancookingratesaround1.5%.Toreachuniversalaccesstoelectricityby2030,over800000householdswouldneedtogainaconnectioneachyearto2030.Kenya,Rwanda,BangladeshandIndiahaveallachievedsimilarratesofprogressinthepast.Forcleancooking,Ugandawouldneedtodeploymorethanonemillionimprovedbiomassorcleancookingstoveseachyeartoreachitstarget,roughly4%oftheestimatedglobalcleancookstovemarkettoday.Reachinguniversalaccessthisdecadereliesonalls