英国50大新兴技术-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

InnovateUK,s50EmergingTechnologiesreportFuturetechnologytrendsmattertobusinesses.AstheUK,sinnovationagencywearefrequentlyaskedwhatthefutureholds.It,sourdutytohelpbusinessesexploreandanswerthis.Weworkinagreatresearchandinnovationenvironmentwhere,withinputfromourpartnersinResearchCouncilsandbeyond,wehavetheuniqueabilitytoidentifyinterestingemergingtechnologiesandtrends.Wehavedrawnonourecosystem,securinginputfrom300stakeholderstodeliveraglimpseofthefuturethathelpsthebusinessesWeworkwitheverydaytoexploreemergingopportunities.Developmentofthisreportfollowedawell-establishedandrobustemergingtechnologyidentificationprocessthathasbeenindependentlyreviewed.Inputcamefromawiderangeofacademics,Governmentdepartments,andResearchCouncilsincludingEPSRC,BBSRC,NERC,MRCandSTFC.Formoreonhowwemadethereportgotopage6.Read,shareanddiscussInnovateUK,s50EmergingTechnologiesreport.Contributeyourthoughtstohorizonscanningiiik.ukri.orgYourinputaidstheUKinattainingstrategicadvantagewithincrucialfuturetechnologies.Startcreatingthefuture,today.Fivekeyquestions:Astechnologyismoreembeddedinourbodies,willhumansturnintosomethingnewanddifferent?Whatmakesushumanwillbeincreasinglyquestioned.ShouldAlbeallowedtomakedecisionsonourbehalf?AllaspectsofbusinessandsocietywillbetransformedthroughAlandcomputing.Ifhumanscanexpectacenturyofgoodhealth,whatdoesthismeanforemployment,pensionsorhousing?Thequalityandlengthofourliveswillbegreaterthaneverbefore.Willashifttowardscleaner,affordableenergychangethewayweliveandwork?Atransformedenergysystemcouldhelpnewindustriestothrive.WhatwillavastexpansionofourunderstandingoftheworldmeanfortheUKeconomy?TheUK,sabilitytodrawonitsresearchandbusinessstrengthswillhelpussolvebigproblemsandseizeopportunities.Youranswerstoquestionslikethesewillshapeourfuture.FOREWORD BY Indro Mukerjee Chief Executive, Innovate UKUnleashing opportunities for the UK,s leadershipTheUKisanimportantglobalplayerininnovation.Ournationboastsrecognisedexpertiseacrossmanytechnologicaldomains,rangingfromartificialintelligenceandmaterialssciencetoroboticsandhealthcare.Atthesametime,therearemanychallengesfacingtheeconomy,societyandtheenvironmentthatmakeitessentialthatwedriveinnovationfurtherandfaster.InnovateUKistheUK,sinnovationagency,andweworktosupporteconomicandproductivitygrowththroughsupportinginnovativebusinesses.Wealsoworktohelpcatalyse,connect,andstimulateideas-andthatworkisattheheartofthisInnovateUK50EmergingTechnologiesreport.TheInnovateUKteamhasdelvedintosomekeycutting-edgetechnologieswhicharestillintheirinfancy,andframedthoughtstostimulatediscussion;tostimulateideas;andtostimulatepossiblefutureinnovation.Theideaspresentedhavethepotentialto,directlyorindirectly,stimulateactivitieswhichcouldhelpUKorganisationsseizetheinitiativeandexplorenascentsectorsoftheeconomywithpotentialforgrowth.Consider,forinstance,space-basedsolarpower,aconceptthatoffersthetantalisingprospectofanuninterrupted,cleanenergysource.Furthermore,softroboticsholdstremendouspotentialforthedevelopmentofartificialmusclesandorgansthatcloselyresembletheirbiologicalcounterparts.TheInnovateUKteamrecognisesthatthemostcrucialelementliesnotinthetechnologyitself,butratherinthepeopleandinnovativebusinessesandorganisationsbehindthem,spreadacrosstheUK.Itisthesevisionaryentitiesthatpossesstheabilitytorecognisepotentialandtransformitintocommerciallysuccessfulproductsofthefuture.Inthisreport,wearenotseekingtopredictthefuture,buttostimulatecuriosity,shareknowledge,andconsidertheartofthepossible.Wewillsharethisreportacrossourinnovationecosystem-acrossbusinesses,researchandtechnologyorganisations,governmentalbodies,investors,lenders,academicinstitutions,andothers.WearekeentoreceivefeedbackandkeentostimulateinnovationinactionforthebenefitoftheUKeconomyandsothatwecanworkonoursharedgoaltotransformtomorrowtogether.ContentsEnergyandEnvironmentalIntroduction05Technologies20HealthandMedical29Howthereportisorganised05TechnologyHowwemadethereport06Cross-linkedpolymerrecycling21Adultstemcellgeneration30Gridscalewirelessenergy21Fluxomics30Al,Digitaland07transmissionandchargingAnti-ageingdrugs-3(ComputingTechnologiesHypersonics22Antibioticreplacements31Alemotionandexpressionrecognition08Novelpropulsionorionbasedpropulsion22MicrobiometherapeuticsPersonalisedRNAtherapeutics3232Artificialgeneral08-2i-intelligence(AGI)BiologicallyinspiredAl-08-andstoragetechnologiesNovel-negative-24-Phasedgenomeassemblytools3233Brainmachineinterface(BMI)technologies09emissionstechnologiesdetectionimplantsNuclearfusion24Wholebody-on-a-chipdevice33Quantumalgorithms0Space-basedsolarpower24DNAdatastorage0Roboticsand34NewcomputingmodelsIlSpaceTechnologiesBiotechnology25Novelimmersiveinterfaces11Artificialcellsandartificiallife26Fullyautonomousvehicles35Nanoscalerobotics75SBacteriaandmicrobe26AdvancedMaterials12manufacturingRoboticOff-Worldmanufacture35andManufacturingBiocatalyticmembranes26-Softrobotics364Dprinting13Spacenuclearpower36Bioelectronicsandelectroceuticals27Biomimeticmaterials13andnovelspacepropulsionsystemsNanoparticlemanufacturing13Hybridmicrobebiotechnology28Verylowearthorbit37Metamaterials14Programmablecells28(VLEO)satellitesBiofabricationin28Electronics,PhotonicsStissueengineeringConclusionsand38andQuantumTechnologiesAlternativeandnovel-16-thewayforwardsemiconductorsystemsEmergingmicroscopytechniques17Hyperspectralimaging17Millimetrewaveandterahertztechnologies7Photongenerators18Plasmonics8Post-quantumcryptography19Roomtemperaturesuperconductors19Ourshowcasetechnologiesarehighlightedinbold.TheaimofthisreportistosharesomeofthemostsignificantemergingtechnologieslikelytobeimportanttotheUK,sindustriesof2040andbeyond.INTRODUCTION BYSimone BoekelaaryHead of HorizonScanning, Innovate UK1.ookingthisfarintothefuturemeanswecanstarttalkingwithpartnersacrosstheinnovationecosystemaboutwhatsupport,ifany,isrequiredtorealisethetechnology,sfullpotential.Thesetechnologiesmaynotbethosegettingthemostinterestinpolicyorinvestmentrightnow.Theymaynotbethehottesttopicsinresearchanddevelopmentcircles.Butouranalysissaystheyhaveeconomyandsociety-shapingpotential.Whenreadingthisreport,weneedtorememberthattechnologiesthemselveshavelittleintrinsicvalue.Itisonlywhentheyareputtousethatvaluemanifests.Weknowthegreatestvalueiscreatedwhenmultipletechnologiesarecombined.Whenseveralmaturetechnologiesarebroughttogetherthatcanreallychangetheworld.Forexample,remotesurgerybringstogetherrobotics,Al,advancedmaterials,sensors,imagingtechnologies.Orasmartphonecombinestouchscreenandcameratechnologies,internetandBluetoothconnectivity,GPS,tonamejustafew.Thefocushereisprimarilyonthetechnologyratherthantheirpotentialapplications.Onthebuildingblocks,ratherthanendresults.Ourhopeisthatbydiscoveringthesetechnologies,youcanconsideroriginalcombinations.Thesemaytheninspirenewapplicationsorsolutionstosocietalchallenges.Theninnovatorsareinspiredtodevelopthesetechnologiesintonewproductsandservices.Andwewillallbeinspiredtoembracethechangethisfuturewillbring.HowthereportisorganisedOur50emergingtechnologiesareorganisedwithintheUKInnovationStrategy,sseventechnologyfamilies.Theywere,inturn,inspiredbyInnovateUK,staxonomyforstructuringandunderstandingthe1,000+technologieswesupport.Thisallowsustoexploretherelationshipsbetweentechnologiesandtechnologyfamilies.Itensuresthetechnologieswetrackcoverallareasofscienceandtechnology,andallpartsofoureconomy.Foreachtechnology,Wedefineandexplainwhyitisimportant,andexploreitspotentialfuturesignificance.Ineachfamilywehighlightonetechnologywethinkcouldhaveaparticularlymeaningfuleconomicorsocietalimpact.Turnthepagetoseehowweselectedthe50technologies.Read.Share.Discuss.Innovate.Howwemadethereport1 DefineOur question:Which emerging technologies are likely to be important to the UK economy beyond 2040?2-GatheringSurveyofscientistsandresearchersDiscussionswithexpertsUndertakeareviewoftechnologyscansundertakenbyothers.4-AnalysisCompareeachshortlistedidea,using30+metrics.Ourcriteria:TimingAdditionalityUKCapabilityOpportunity-SocietalImpact.3FilteringCombinenewideaswithexistingdata.Consider:(i) Isittrulyemergingand(ii) IstheresomeoneintheUKwithexpertise,tocreateashortlist.6OutputUseanalysistoselectinterestingtechnologiesforreport.7-Communication-SharefindingsSeekfeedbackUsefeedbackfornextreport.8-ConclusionSeeonpage38.Al,DigitalandComputingTechnologiesThesetechnologiesmightnotjusttransformthewayweliveourlives,butalsomakeusconsiderwhatitmeanstobehuman.Theycouldblurtheboundariesbetweentherealandvirtualworld,andcreateastep-changeinwhattechcandointhehomeandworkplace.Whiletherearemanypossibilitieswhichoffergreathope,ethicalconsiderationsneedtobefullyconsidered.Ifwedothat,WecanmakesurethatourfuturesocietyharnessestheworldofAl,digitalandcommutingtechnologytothegreatestbenefitofthemostpeople.“Itmovesustowardscomputingthatmimicshumanbrainprocesses.AlemotionandexpressionrecognitionWhatisit?DevelopingAlthatrecognisesandinterpretshumanemotions.Whyisitinteresting?CanyouimagineaworldwhereAlandhumansworkseamlesslytogether?WhereSiriandAlexaassistusinmorethansimpletasks?oSentientoAlcanrecogniseouremotionsandofferassistance,companionshiporalertmedicalprofessionalswhenweneedhelp.Wemayneedmachinestoexpressemotionalbehavioursoftheirown,forexampleinAlusedinrobots.Thiswouldhelppatientsincarehomeswhereemotionalinteractioniskeytoimprovedwellbeing.Howcoulditchangeourlives?Ithasthepotentialforverypositiveimpacts,improvingourdailylivesinareassuchascareandcompanionship.Developmentwithstrongethicalconsiderationswillopenupendlessopportunities.Artificialgeneralintelligence(AGI)Alisascapableoflearningintellectualtasksashumansare.Withtheflexibilityandresourcefulnessofhumanintelligence,capableofproducingnewideas.Whyisitinteresting?AGIenablesmachinestobehave,learn,createandperformashumansdo.ItwillhelpusexplorethecreativeabilitiesofAlandunderstandtheincreasingly*naturainteractionsbetweenhumansandmachines.Howcoulditchangeourlives?AGIraisesintriguingquestionsaboutwhatitmeanstobehuman.Willwealwaysbeabletotellifweareinteractingwithmachinesorhumans?Willthatmattertous?Theanswerswillchangeourlivesinwayswedon,tyetexpectandcannotyetforecast.BiologicallyinspiredAlWhatisit?Itspringsfromtheideathatintelligenceemergesasmuchfromcells,bodies,andsocietiesasitdoesfromevolutionandlearning.Traditionally,Alhastriedtoreproducehumanabilities.Newerapproachestakeinspirationfrombiologicalstructuresthatcanorganisethemselves.Theseincludeevolutionarycomputationandelectronics,artificialneuralnetworks,immunesystems,bioroboticsandswarmintelligence.Whyisitinteresting?Itmovesustowardscomputingthatmimicshumanbrainprocesses,potentiallyallowingcreativebehaviourbymachines.Itcouldprovidenewalgorithmsforplanning,rememberingandvisualstimulation.Howcoulditchangeourlives?ItcouldacceleratethedevelopmentofAlandenablethingsthatotherwisewouldnttbepossible.Itwilllikelyinformusabouthowourworldfunctions.SHOWCASETECHNOLOGY:Brainmachineinterface(BMI)technologiesWhatisit?Technologiesthatconnectthebrainwithacomputerormachine.Ittranslatesourthoughtsintocommandsthatcancontrolexternalsoftwareorhardware,suchasacomputerorroboticarm.Interfacetechnologiesareoftendividedintothosethat,read,brainactivityanddecodeitsmeaning,andthosethat,write,tothebraintomanipulateactivityinspecificregionsandaffecttheirfunction.Whyisitinteresting?Itgetsusclosertoafullinterfacewiththehumanbrain.Theultimateabilitytosharedatabetweenhumansandmachinescouldalterthewayweregardmankinditself.Whatindustriescouldusethis?Medical,ageingsociety,sports,military/defence,manufacturing,servicessector.Howcoulditchangeourlives?AdvancedBMItechnologiesarebeingtrialledinprostheticsforpeoplewithmotororsensoryimpairments.Theycouldallowpeoplewhoareparaplegicorquadriplegictoregainlimbcontrol.Thosemissinglimbscouldhavedirectcontrolfrombraintodevice-oftheirprosthetics.uThe ultimate ability to share data between humans and machines could alter the way we regard mankind itself.,Whatdoweneedtostartdiscussing?Thebalancebetweenhelpingandprotectingpeoplewhoneedorwantthistechnologyisabigtopic.Weneedtothinkaboutwhoshouldhaveaccesstothistechnology,andwhatregulations,ifany,areneeded.Wewouldalsoneedtoworkoutwhathappensifaproductisnolongersupported-thisisaninconveniencewithasmartphone,butamuchbiggerissuewhenadeviceislinkedtoyourbrain.QuantumalgorithmsWhatisit?QuantumalgorithmsareakeyelementofthesoftwareandtoolsthatwillhelpquantumcomputerstopotentiallyOUtPerfOrTnstandardcomputers.Quantumalgorithmscanbeappliedtoareassuchascryptography,searchoptimisation,andsimulationofquantumsystems.Whyisitinteresting?Quantumcomputersarecoming!Itisessentialthatfornewcomputingparadigmswealsodevelopthesoftwareandtoolstoprovidetheapplicationsthesecomputerscansupport.Howcoulditchangeourlives?Thekeytogettingvaluefromquantumcomputingwillbefindingthespecificsetofalgorithmsthatquantumcomputersarebetteratthanclassicalcomputers.Weknowsomeofthesealready,buttherearelotsmoretofindanddevelop!DNAdatastorageWhatisit?Itcouldexponentiallyincreasedatastoragecapabilitiesand,theoretically,bepreservedindefinitely.IfstheprocessofencodinganddecodingdatatoandfromsynthesizedstrandsofDNAorRNA.Whyisitinteresting?Imaginebeingabletostorezettabytes(that'sahard-to-imagineonebillionterabytes),incompact,high-densityandmolecular-leveldatastorage?Harnessingthepowerofbiotechnologycouldmeetourescalatingdatastoragedemands,especiallyimportantaswelooktoaccesssophisticatedAltechnologies.'Imagine being able to store zettabytes (that,s a hard- to-imagine one billion terabytes), in compact, high-density and molecular -level data storage.Howcoulditchangeourlives?Wearereachingthephysicallimitationsofcomputinghardwaredesign.DNAsynthesiscouldremovethislimitation,openingupnewcomputingapplications,capableofstoringandretrievingvastvolumesofdata.uTheseadvancescouldhelptheworldbecomemoreequitable.NewcomputingmodelsWhatisit?Newcomputingtechniquesnotbasedontraditionalcircuittechnology.Whyisitinteresting?Beyondquantumcomputing,thesearenewcomputingmodelsOfferingordersofmagnitudeperformanceimprovementsoutofreachofconventionalcomputers.Theseincludebiological,photonicandneuromorphiccomputing.Howcoulditchangeourlives?Thesetechnologiesforcompletelynewwaystobuildcomputerswillallowscientiststoanswerquestionswhichareimpossibletoday.Theseincludemodellingtehumanbrain,com