麦肯锡-建筑物脱碳的新方法可以降低排放并有利可图（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_d.docx

November2023McKhiseyQuarterlyAnewwaytodecarbonizebuildingscanloweremissionsprofitablyAnAl-informedapproachmakesitfaster,easier,andcheapertodecarbonizerealestate.Here,show.ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyBrodieBoland,DanielCramer,AlastairGreen,DaryaGuettler,FockoImhorst,andMaritaWinSlade,representingviewsfromMcKinsey,RealEstatePractice.Realestatecompaniesareincreasinglyacceptingtheimperativetodecarbonizebuildings,buttheyfrequentlyfindthetaskdifficult,laborious,andexpensive.Ownerswithportfoliosofmanyuniquebuildingsoftenhavenocentralizedinventorythatindicatestheconditionsinsideorthetypesofequipmenttheycontain.Whafsmore,physicalenergyauditsandbuilding-by-buildingnet-zeroplansarelengthy,costly,andenjoynobenefitsofscale.Duetotheselimitations,thetraditionalapproachtodecarbonizationhascreatedawidespreadimpressionthatdecarbonizingbuildingsissignificantlyunprofitable.Butthankstoimprovementsinthequantityandqualityofdataandanalyticmethods,thereisabetterapproach.Itisnowpossibletouseacombinationofdatafromsatellites,geospatialanalytics,regulations,laborandequipmentcosts,buildingcharacteristics,energy,andothersourcestorapidlycreateahigh-fidelitypictureofthecurrentstateofanindividualbuildingwithouteversteppingfootinside.Byapplyingmachinelearning,Al,andphysics-basedmodeling,portfolioownerscanquicklyidentifybuildingdecarbonizationopportunities.Thisincludesthecurrenttypeandestimatedcapacityofheatingandcoolingsystems,thesite-specificpotentialforsolarorgeothermalpower,andwhereinsulationandefficiencylevelsaresubstandard.Advancedevolutionaryoptimizationalgorithmscanthendeterminetheoptimalsetofsolutionsandsequenceofactionsforeachbuilding-andtheportfolioasawholetoreachnetzeroonagiventimeline.Thesecapabilitiescanquicklygenerateasetoffinanciallyoptimizedplansforeachbuildinginaportfoliobasedonthebuilding/suniquestartingpoint,regulatoryenvironment,leasestructure,andmanyotherfactors.Theseplans-whichcanbegeneratedforafullportfolioinamatterofweeks-canincludeasetoftime-boundactions,associatedcapitalcosts,anddocumentationoftheeffectonemissionsandoperatingcosts.Forlargeportfolios,thisnovelapproachtoreachingnetzerorepresentsamorethan100-foldincreaseinthepaceandscaleofdecarbonizationplanningcomparedwiththetraditionalapproachofconductingenergyauditsandnet-zerostudies.Italsoeliminatestheneedtorelyonvaguebuildingarchetypesorgeneralmarginalabatementcostcurves,whichoftenleadtopoorerplansandhighercosts.Thissystemyieldsspecific,detailed,actionableplanswithfasterabatementandbettereconomics.Bydevelopingthefullpathtonetzero,realestateorganizationscanplanaheadinsteadofreacting.Theycanintegratedecarbonizationcostinsightswhendecidingwhichbuildingstomoveintooracquire.Becausethisnewapproachcanrapidlygenerateaplanforeverybuilding,ownersandoccupierscandecidewheretoinvestlimitedcapitalandcoordinateequipmentprocurement,design,andprojectmanagementtominimizecosts.Additionally,ownerscanaggregatebuilding-levelplansacrosstheportfoliotodevelopcapitalplansandreporting.Building-Ievelplansforenergyefficiencyandelectrificationallowownersandoccupierstoestimateandprocurerequiredvolumesofrenewablepower,increasethepotentialtotakeadvantageofgovernmentincentives,andmakebuildingmanagers'jobseasier.Thisarticlebeginsbyexploringtheimportanceofadoptingamoreefficientwaytodecarbonizebuildings.Next,Wedescribehowthisnewapproachoftenmakesitpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzeroatanetpresentvalue(NPV)thatisneutraltopositive.Forexample,Wehighlightacompanythatrecentlydevelopedanet-zeropathwayplanthat,sprojectedtocostroughly$85millionlessthanatraditional-approachplanwouldhavecost.Finally,wedescribethesevenfeaturesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplan.Decarbonizationeffortsarechallenging,butafaster,moreeconomicalwayofaccomplishingtherealestateindustry,sdecarbonizationgoalsprovidesanopportunitytomeaningfullyaccelerateactionsrequiredtolimitglobalwarming.Buildingowners,operators,andoccupiershaveobligationstodecarbonizeTherealestateindustryaccountsforapproximately40percentofglobalcombustion-relatedemissions,ofwhich28percentagepointscomefrombuildingoperationsand12fromembodiedcarbonthatis,emissionsfrombuildingmaterialsandconstruction(Exhibitl).2022 Global status report for buildings and construction, United Nations Environment Programme, November 9, 2022.Tokeepglobalwarmingwithinapproximately1.5Candtoreachanet-zero-carbonbuildingstockby2050,theIEAestimatesdirectbuildingemissions(suchasfromonsitegasoroilboilers)willneedtobereducedby50percentandindirectemissionsbyExhibit1Thirty-sevenpercentofglobalenergyemissionsarerelatedtobuildings,with28percentagepointsofthatduetobuildingoperations.Global energy and process emissions by source, 2021, %Building operations (direct)Building operations (indirect)OtherindustryTransportationOtherBuilding construction industry Other nstr ction2i8 37Source:UNEP2022GlobalStatusReportforBuildingsandGxistruction60percent(forexample,throughenergyefficiencymeasuresandgriddecarbonization)by2030.2uBuilding sector emissions hit record high, but low-carbon pandemic recovery can help transform sector-U N report/United Nations Environment Programme, December 16, 2020. "Companies takir% action/1 Science Based Targets Initiative dashboard, August 2023.However,theworld/sbuildingsarenotcurrentlyontracktoachievethesegoals.SomeprogresshasbeenmadeandmoreiswithinreachRealestatecompaniesacrosstheecosystemareincreasinglymakingnet-zerocommitments?Meanwhile,regulatorsandgoverningbodiesareworkingtoimplementamixofincentivesandregulations,includingtheEuropeanCommission'sEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective,theUnitedKingdom'sMinimumEnergyEfficiencyStandards,andtheUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommission'sproposedclimatedisclosure.Addingtomomentumareinvestorswhoareincreasinglyallocatingcapitaltosupportthetransition.Progressiswithinreach.Unlikeinsomeareasthatareaddressingdecarbonization(suchasheavyindustryandshipping),ourworkinrealestatehasshownusthatthetechnologyalreadyexiststoreplacetheuseoffossilfuelsanddramaticallyimproveenergyefficiencyinmostbuildingsaroundtheglobe.Ifcompaniesdeploythemostefficientapproaches,alargeshareofbuildings(andanevenlargershareofbuildingportfolios)canbedecarbonizedwithneutralorpositivefinancials Sustainability grades are driving a vacancy gap in offices/ JLLr January 16r 2023.withintheexistingtechnology,policy,supplychain,andenergymarketenvironment.Fulfillingtheindustry'sobligationsfortheclimatetransitionwhilecreatingvalueispossible.However,itrequiresthatbuildingownersdothingsdifferently.BuildingdecarbonizationcanbeeconomicaltodayIndetaileddecarbonizationworkcoveringapproximately20,000buildings,morethan15megatonsofCO2equivalentannualemissions,andvariouspropertytypesandgeographies,wehavecometoanotableconclusion:usingthenewapproach,itisoftenpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzerowithneutraltopositivereturnsoninvestmentassavingsmeetorexceedcostsovertime.Thisconclusionisvalidwithconservativeassumptions,includingnogreenpremiumsonrentorpropertyvaluation,noincrementalfutureregulationsorcarbonpricing,andnoneworsignificantlyimprovedtechnology.Byexecutingenergyefficiencyandelectrificationmeasuresforeachbuilding'sfullpathtonetzeroandoptimizingrenewable-powerprocurementattheportfoliolevel,buildingownersandoccupantstypicallycanrecouptheirinvestmentsthroughenergysavings,capitalcostoptimization,andavoidanceofexistingregulatorypenalties.AdiversecohortofrealestateportfoliosusedthenewapproachtodramaticallyimprovetheNPVofreducingtheiroperationalemissionstonetzero(Exhibit2).Theseplanswereverifiedthroughtestingandrefinementwithengineersandfacilitymanagersandfromtheapprovalofbusinesscasesandcapitalplansbyfinancedepartments,executives,andboards.ArealestateinvestorimprovedtheNPVofitsnet-zeropathwaybyroughly$85millionAUSrealestateinvestorwithroughly$20billioninassetsundermanagementacrossmultiplepropertytypesrecentlyusedthemodernapproachtodevelopasset-leveldecarbonizationplansformorethan750buildings.DevelopingtheinitialplanstooklessthaneightweeksandimprovedtheNPVoftherealestateinvestmenttrustsnet-zeropathwaybyabout$85million,toanear-neutralNPV(seesidebar,mAcompany'soptimizedapproach,)Thisinvestor/snet-zerojourneycouldpayforitselfduetolowerExhibit2Buildingdecarbonizationcanbeeconomicaltoday.Net present value (NPV) of portfolio pathway to net zero before and after optimization,1 illustrative, $ billion, Before optimization After optimizationNet zeroby-0.500.51.01.52.0Global retail owneroccupier with retail and warehousesPortfolio size, thousands of buildingsPlanned abatement, kilotons CO2 equivalent2040-0.2North American ownerinvestor focused on retail and warehousingNorth American ownerinvestor focused on medical offices and assisted living2040Acompany'soptimizedapproachEightwaysalargerealestateowner-investorimprovedthenetpresentvalueofitspathtonetzero.Net present value improvement, real estate investor, $ millionOptimized sequencing 17Avoided stranded capital 15Avoided regulatory penalties, 12Crdinated major investments' 17Updated lease agreements 16Leveraged bulk procurement 10Optimized power procurement10Captured incentives 2585 Total improvement,Anadditional$35mfllioncouldbeachievedthroughincentivesandIeaiestructureChan¢6工:AIsoreducestheriskoflastminutezmoreexpensiveactionsrequiredtoreacttofutureregulations.OnlyexistingregulationswereconsideredfortKepurposesofcalculatingnetpresentvalue(NPVop<imiutiopotential.Avoidedpenaltiesfromlait-minutectiorfinefromfutureregulationsareconsideredfurtherupskSe.1OnfyappliedwhereroofandrooftopHVACsystemshaveumilarexpectedendoflifedates.Total NPV improvement. To produce a conservative estimate, the NPV improvement figure does not include additional upside potential from rental or cap rate premia, increases in occupancy, the ability to capture local incentives, and/or the avoidance of future regulations.Optimized sequencing. Used evolutionary optimization to determine the highest value set of actions to reach net zero; eg, the company installed efficiency measures early to maximize operating-expense savings and reduce capital expenditures required to electrify later.Avoided stranded capital. Acted immediately to ensure that near-term capital investments across the portfolio were aligned with long-term decarbonization plans. (Because roofs and majorequipment often have useful lives of 10 to >25 years, missed opportunities to electrify at end- of-life is likely to result in stranded capital or the need to retire equipment before the end of its useful life.)Avoided regulatory penalties. Developed plans to help ensure that fossil-fuel-powered assets are replaced before the required dates in applicable regions.Coordinated major investments. Coordinated major renovations and equipment upgrades (eg, roof replacements, insulation upgrades, and electrification of rooftop heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning HVAC systems) to reduce installation costs by sharing labor, project management, design, crane, and other costs.Updated lease agreements. Reviewed leases to ensure current templates allow for capital recoveries for investments that yield energy savings for tenants. This allows landlords to align costs and benefits across parties and avoid the “split-incentive problemz (For nonserviced leases, landlords may wish to consider metered- efficiency structures that can allow owners to receive a share of energy savings.)Leveraged bulk procurement. Developed plans that provide long-term visibility into all major HVAC and building envelope needs to negotiate bulk discounts and secure delivery timelines for major equipment and materials.Optimized power procurement. Developed an optimized power procurement Strategytied to an electrification timeline. The goal was to reduce the risk of signing large contracts at higher costs right before net-zero target dates.Captured incentives. Created a plan to apply for incentives available for net-zero-related electrification and energy efficiency measures. (These incentives were treated as an upside and were not factored into the NPV improvement estimate.)utilitybills,avoidedexistingregulatorypenalties,andreducedcapitalcosts(bycoordinatingprojectsandnegotiatingbulkprocurementpricing,forexample).Changesinthesefactors,suchasanewpriceoncarboninacertainjurisdictionorgreenpremiums,arelikelytoresultinpositiveeconomicsoverthelongrun.TraditionalapproachesaretypicallyslowerandmorecostlyTraditionally,ownershavetakenaproject-by-projectapproachacrosstheirportfolios,focusingondiscreteactionswithclearstand-alonepaybackperiods,suchasinstallinghigh-efficiencyequipment,lighting,andautomatedbuildingcontrols.Marginalabatementcostcurves,orMACCcurves,havehistoricallybeenusedtoidentifyandprioritizestand-alonepaybackperiodprojectsbycalculatingtheaverageindustrycosts,orsavings,pertonofcarbonabatedforthattypeofproject.MACCshavebeenausefulprioritizationtoolinthepastandremainsoforhighlystandardizedindustrieswheresite-specificoptimizationisnotyetavailable.However,forrealestateportfolios,anoptimizedapproachthatusesdataandanalyticscanyieldsignificantlyimprovedresults.Toillustratetherelativebenefitoftheoptimizedapproach,take,forexample,abuildingfollowinganaveragecommercialbuildingMACCcurvethatwouldyieldanNPVofnegative$1.1milliontoreachnetzero.Thesamebuilding,byoptimizingthepathwayforthespecificbuildingconditionsviathenewapproach,couldyieldanNPVofpositive$100,000toreachnetzero,representinga$1.2millionNPVimprovementcomparedwiththealternativemethod.Whyisthisthecase?Forcompanieswithanet-zerocommitment,theMACCapproachdoesnotconsidersitespecifics(suchasifthebuildingenvelopeisleaky)orinterdependenciesandcoordinationopportunitiesbetweendecarbonizationlevers.Accordingly,itoftenpushescostlyactionsintothefuture.Realestateownerscouldthenbeforcedtoimplementmoreexpensiveinitiativesatlater,nonoptimaltimes,leadingtowastedcapital(duetoissuessuchasoversizesystemsorequipmentthathastoberetiredbeforeendoflife)andlostenergysavings.Otherownershavetraditionallyworkedfromthebottom-up/conductingbuilding-by-buildingenergyauditsandengineeringstudiestoexamineissuesincludinginsulation,currentheating,ventilation,andair-conditioning(HVAC)systems,andonsitesolarpotential,andthendevelopingbespokedecarbonizationplans.Thisapproachoftentakesmonthsperbuildingandcanresultinaseriesofindividualreports,makingitdifficulttoaggregateplans,understandportfolio-widecosts,avoidwastedcapitalsuchasbyhavingtostripoutequipmentbeforeendoflife,complywithregulationsortargets,orfindportfolio-levelefficiencies(suchasthroughbulkprocurement).Howtogetstarted:ThesevenfeaturesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplanWhilearangeofbuildingownersandoccupantsaremakingcommitmentstoachievenetzero,manylackcomprehensiveplans.GivenwhatisnowpossiblewithevolvingdataandAlandthesignificanteffectstheycouldhaveonthepaceofbuildingdecarbonizationandprofitability,majorbuildingownersandoccupiershaveanew