2023年澳大利亚葡萄酒出口报告.docx

Executivesummary TotalvalueofAustralianwineexportsdeclinedby2percentto$1.90billion. Totalvolumedeclinedby3percentto607m川ionlitres. Whiletheselevelsofexportsarestillwellbelowlong-termaverages,theDecember2023quartersawanincreasecomparedto2022.Valuegrewby23percentandvolumeby2percentduringtheperiod. HongKongshowedthestrongestvaluegrowthinthe12monthstoDecember2023,withsolidgrowthalsotoSingaporeandNewZealand.Inaddition,theUnitedKingdom,ThailandandMalaysiashowedgoodgrowthintheDecemberquarter. TotalexportvalueintheDecemberquarterwas$600million,thefirsttimesince2020thataquarterhasreachedthatlevel. ThevolumeofexportstotheUnitedKingdom,CanadaandHongKonggrewduringthe12-monthperiod,whileDenmarkandJapansawvolumeincreasesintheDecemberquarter.OverviewInthe12monthstoDecember2023,Australianwineexportsdeclinedby2percentinvalueto$1.90billion1and3percentinvolumeto607millionlitres.Whiletheselevelsofexportsarestillwellbelowlong-termaverages,thisisanincreasefromthe$1.8billionpublishedintheSeptember2023ExportReport.TotalexportvalueintheDecemberquarterwas$600million(seeFigure1),a23percentincreasecomparedtothesamequarterin2022andthehighestquarterlyvaluesinceDecember2020.Volumeincreasedby2percentto162millionlitresforthequarter(seeFigure2).Asvolumeandvaluemovedsimilarlyoverthe12monthstoDecember2023,averagevalueofexportsstayedlevelat$3.13perlitrefreeonboard(FOB)2.Figure1:ValueOfAustraIianwineexportsbyquarter,UnlessotherwisestatedallvaluesaregiveninAustraliandollars.2AllexportwinevaluesaretheTreeonboard'(FOB)valueofthewine,wherethepointofvaluationiswheregoodsareplacedonboardtheinternationalcarrier,attheborderoftheexportingcountry.TheFOBvalueincludesproductionandothercostsupuntilplacementontheinternationalcarrierbutexcludesinternationalinsuranceandtransportcosts.TheimprovedperformancebyvaluewasmostlydrivenbyanincreaseinexportstoHongKong.Inaddition,exportstoSingapore,theUnitedKingdom(UK),MalaysiaandThailandshowedgoodgrowthintheDecemberquarter.OffsettingsomeofthisgrowthwasadeclineinexportstoCanada,theUnitedStates(US)andSouthKorea.Totalexportvolumehasgenerallybeenholdingsteady,witharecoveryinexportstotheUKhelpingtostrengthenthepositioninthelatestquarter.PartiallyoffsettingthisgrowthwasadeclineinthevolumeofexportsfortheDecemberquartertoNewZealand,Canada,GermanyandtheUS.Figure2:VolumeOfAustraIianwineexportsbyquarterVTDcn2?VED2>Overall,tradingconditionsremainextremelychallengingforAustralianexporters.Outofthe112destinationsthatreceivedAustralianwineduringtheyear,only44importedmorevaluethanthepreviousyear.Globally,wineconsumptionisdeclining,duelargelytoacombinationofaglobaleconomictighteningresultinginlessdiscretionaryspendingandconsumersbeingmoreconsciousoftheirhealth.Thishasseenalcoholconsumptionfall,includingforwine.Addingtothesepressuresistheglobaloversupplyofwine,withanaverageexcesswineproductionofjustunder3billionlitreseveryyearsince2012-morethandoubleAustralia'stotalannualwineproduction.Withregardstohealthandwellness,someconsumersareabstainingfromdrinkingwine,othersaredrinkinglessbutpayingmore,whilesomeareseekingnoorlowalcoholwineoptions.Thistrendhasseenwineconsumptionatpremiumwinesegments(US$10ormoreperbottle)grow,whilethecommercialend(lessthanUS$10perbottle)hasbeendeclining-anindicationthatconsumersaredrinkinglessbutchoosingtopurchasehigherpricepoints,althoughthisisatslightlylowergrowthratesthanrecentyears.ThesetrendsClisproportionallyeffectAustralia,giventhemajorityofAustralianexportvolumesareinthecommercialpricesegments.Thenegativeconsumptiontrendshavebecomemorepronouncedin2023duetoeconomicfactors.IWSRresearchconductedinthefirsthalfof2023indicateda“significantnegativeshiftninspendingonallalcohol,withallregionsexceptAsiatrendingnegative.Consumerscited"economicmoderationasthemainreasonandthattheyareprioritisingspendingonessentialitems.WineAustraliaGeneralManagerMarketingPaulTuralesaid,*Australia,s2023wineexportresultsreflectthechallengesbeingfeltacrossthewinesectorglobally.TheDecemberquarterperformancehasshownsomegrowthbuttherearestillmanyhurdlesforthesector.Weremainclearonthesehurdlesbutareconfidentthattheextensiveactivitiesplannedin2024willassistinbuildingsalesanddistributionacrossemergingandestablishedmarkets'1.PackagingtypesInthe12monthstoDecember2023,packagedAustralianwineexportsdeclinedby2percentinvalueto$1.43billionand12percentinvolumeto189millionlitres.Asvolumedeclinedmorethanvalue,theaveragevalueofpackagedexportsgrewby12percentto$7.54perlitreFOB.Thevolumedeclineinpackagedexportswaslargelydrivenbyexportsbelow$7.50perlitretoCanada,theUKandUS.ThisdeclinecontrastedtotheincreaseinpackagedexportstoHongKong,whichalsocontributedtothegrowthinaveragevalueasthemajorityofexportstoHongKongwerepricedabove$10perlitreFOB.Exportsofunpackagedwine(tobepackagedinmarket)declinedby3percentinvalueto$473millionbutincreasedby3percentinvolumeto418millionlitres.Averagevaluedroppedby5percentto$1.13perlitre.ThevolumegrowthofunpackagedexportswaslargelydrivenbyCanada,theUKandSweden.Theincreaseinthevolumeofunpackagedexportsandthedeclineinpackagedexportshasresultedintheshareofunpackagedexportsgrowingby4percentagepointstoa69percentvolumeshare.Thishasanimpactonthetotalvalueofexportsasunpackagedexportsdonotincludepackagingcostsandarethereforeinherentlylowerinvalue.PricesegmentsInthe12monthstoDecember2023,exportsbelow$5perlitreFOBdeclinedby5percentinvalueto$938millionand1percentinvolumeto545millionlitres.Thevolumedeclinewaslessthanthatforvalueasthedeclineinpackagedexportsinthispricesegmentoutweighedthegrowthinunpackagedwine.Bothpackagedandunpackagedexportsdeclinedinvaluebelow$5perlitre,particularlypackagedexportswhichdeclinedby8percent($40million).Exportsvalued$5ormoreperlitreincreasedby1percentinvalueto$961millionbutdeclinedby16percentinvolumeto62millionlitres.Thegrowthinvaluedespitethedeclineinvolumewasduetogrowthat$10ormoreperlitreof11percentto$690millionoffsettingadeclinebetween$5and$9.99perlitre)of19percentto$270million.Thiswasthehighestexportvalueforthe$10ormoreperlitresegmentsincethe12monthsendedSeptember2021andwasdrivenbyexportsabove$50perlitre(seeFigure3)thatweredestinedforHongKong,SingaporeandMalaysia.Figure3:Exportsbypricesegment(MillionAUDFOB)Pricesegment(A$/litre)MATDecember2023ValuechangeGrowthrate$2.49andunder$450-$6.9-2%$2.50to$4.99$487-$44-8%$5.00to$7.49$172-$42-19%$7.50to$9.99$99-$21-18%$10.00to$14.99$120-$31-21%$15.00to$19.99$46-$7.0-13%$20.00to$29.99$93-$0.5-1%$30.00to$49.99$69-$3.5-5%$50.00to$99.99$257$8449%$100.00to$199.99$38-$7.0-15%$200.00andover$67$3396%Totalvalue$1,899-$46-2%WinestyleInthepast12months,therewasnochangeinthevolumesharesofthemajorwinestyleswithredwineat51percent,whitewineata46percentandroseat3percent.Stillredwineexportsdeclinedby1percentinvalueto$1.25billionand3percentinvolumeto310millionlitres.Byvolume,a4percentgrowthinunpackagedexportsofredwinewasmorethanoffsetbya14percentdeclineinpackagedredwine.UnpackagedredwineexportstodestinationssuchasAustraliatheUK,USA,CanadaandGermanygrew,whilepackagedredwineexportstothesesamedestinationsdeclined.However,redwineexportsathigherpricepointsoffsetsomeofthesedeclinesonavaluebasis,withredwineexportsat$10ormoreperlitrepricesegmentgrowingby13percentinvalue,drivenbyexportstoHongKong.Thetopfivevarietiesexportedinstillredwineproductsin2023were:- Shiraz,down9percentto133millionlitres- CabernetSauvignon,up2percentto85millionlitres- Merlot,up3percentto39millionlitres- PinotNoir,down15percentto4.3millionlitres,and- PetitVerdot5down17percentto3.2millionlitres.Stillwhitewineexportsdeclinedby3percentinvalueto$547millionand2percentinvolumeto271millionlitres.A1percentincreaseinunpackagedwhitewinewasmorethanoffsetbya10percentdeclineinpackagedwhitewine.Onavaluebasis,theUKwastheonlycountrythatrecordedgrowthforstillwhitewineinthetopsevendestinations,whileCanadawastheonlydestinationwithanysignificantgrowthinvolume-drivenbyunpackagedwhitewineexports.Thetopfivevarietiesexportedinstillwhitewineproductsin2023were:- Chardonnay,down9percentto146millionlitres- PinotGris/Grigio,up21percentto47millionlitres- SauvignonBlanc,down0.2percentto27millionlitres- Colombard,up13percentto9.2millionlitres,and- Semillon,up5percentto6.4millionlitres.CarbonatedZsparkIingexportsdeclinedby14percentinvalueto$66millionand15percentinvolumeto12millionlitres.NewZealandrepresentedtheonebrightspotforthiswinestyle,with31percentgrowthinvalueand30percentgrowthinvolume.Mostothersignificantdestinationsdeclined.ExportersThenumberofAustralianwineexportersincreasedto1,298inthe12monthsendedDecember2023,anincreaseof140on2022,butwellbelowthepeakof2,912inthe12monthstoFebruary2020.Thedestinationwiththehighestgrowthinthenumberofexportersamongstthetop20marketswasHongKong,followedbyTaiwan,ThailandandVietnam(seeFigure4).DestinationsthatlostthemostexportersincludedtheUS,Denmark,NewZealand,SingaporeandtheUK.JapanhasovertakentheUSbytotalnumberofexporters.HongKong,theUKandSingaporewerethetopthreedestinationsbynumberofexportersbutastheyaremajortradinghubssomeofthiswineison-shippedtoothermarkets.Page429/01/2024Figure4:Top20destinationsbynumberofexporters,changein2023DestinationsInthe12monthstoDecember2023,Australianwinewasexportedto112destinations,downfrom120in2022.Forty-fourofthesegrewinvalue.Ofthe15largestdestinationsbyvalue,HongKong,SingaporeandNewZealandrecordedvaluegrowth.AsiaisnowthemajorregionbyvalueforAustralianwineexportswitha37percentvalueshare,drivenbystronggrowth(34percent)intoNortheastAsia.AlthoughdeclinestoEuropeandNorthAmericaweresmallerthanthoseexperiencedinrecentperiods,thevalueshareofthesetworegionshasnowdroppedto29and27percentrespectively.ExportstoEuropedeclinedby7percentinvalueto$546million,withallthetop15destinationmarketsinthisregiondecliningbyvalue.ExportstoNorthAmericadeclinedby12percentto$509milliondrivenbyadeclineinexportstoboththeUSandCanada.Oceaniagrewby3percentinvalueto$115million,drivenbygrowthinthevalueofexportstoNewZealand.Figure5:Exportvaluebydestinationregionin2023Thetopfivemarketsbyvaluewere: US(down7percentto$364million.19percentshareoftotalexportvalue) UK(down3percentto$361million.19percentshareoftotalexportvalue) HongKong(up74percentto$290million.15percentshareoftotalexportvalue) Canada(down24percentto$143million.8percentshareoftotalexportvalue),and Singapore(up1percentto$133million.7percentshareoftotalexportvalue).Thetopfivemarketsbyvolumewere: UK(up2percentto220millionlitres.36percentshareoftotalexportvolume) US(down5percentto134millionlitres.22percentshareoftotalexportvolume) Canada(up7percentto73millionlitres.12percentshareoftotalexportvolume) NewZealand(down2percentto29millionlitres.5percentshareoftotalexportvolume),and Germany(down7percentto27millionlitres.4percentshareoftotalexportvolume).EuropeUnitedKingdomInthe12monthstoDecember2023,AustralianwineexportstotheUnitedKingdom(UK)declinedby3percentinvalueto$361millionandincreasedby2percentinvolumeto220millionlitres,thefirsttimevolumeasgrownyear-on-yearsincemid-2021.Averagevaluedeclinedby4percentto$1.64perlitre.Inthepast12months,exportstotheUKhaverecordedtwoquartersofgrowth(seeQ2andQ4inFigure6),withthelatestquarterbeing10percenthigherinvaluethanthesamequarterin2022.Whileitistooearlytobesurethatthemarketisreturningtogrowth,itisapparentthattheintroductionofhigheralcoholdutiesinAugust2023hasnotyethadanegativeimpactonexportstotheUK.Figure7:Valueofe×portstotheUnitedKingdomovertimeAllofthedeclineinvaluewasinpackagedwineexports,whichdeclinedby14percentinvalueto$123millionand18percentinvolumeto22millionlitres,or10percentoftotalexportvolume.TheaveragevalueofpackagedexportstotheUKfellby4percentto$5.50perlitreFOB.NinetypercentofthevolumeofexportstotheUKareunpackagedandarepackagedintheUKand/orre-exportedtootherEuropeanmarkets.Unpackagedexportsincreasedby4percentinvalueto$238millionand4percentinvolumeto197millionlitres.Theaveragevalueofunpackagedexportsremainedunchangedat$1.21perlitreFOB.Redwineexportsincreasedtheirvolumeshareofexportsfrom52percentto53percentduringtheyear.Stillredwineexportsincreasedby4percentinvolumeto116millionlitresbutdeclinedby6percentinvalueto$198million.Theredvolumegrowthwasdrivenbyunpackagedexports,upby8percentinvolumeandalikelyresultofhighinventoriesofredwinebeingheldbyAustralianwineries,whilepackagedredwineexportsdeclinedby21percent.WhitewineexportstotheUKdeclinedinvolumesharefrom46percentin2022to44percentin2023.Stillwhitewineexportsincreasedby1percentinvalueto$148millionanddeclinedby2percentinvolumeto96millionlitres.Unpackagedwhitewineexportswererelativelyunchangedfromyeartoyearwhilepackagedexportsofstillwhitewinedeclinedby12percentinvolume.Figure8:ExportstotheUnitedKingdombypricesegment(MillionAUDFOB)Pricesegment(A$/litre)MATDecember2023ValuechangeGrowthrate$2.49andunder$224$105%$2.50to$4.99$62-$16-20%$5.00to$7.49$31$1.34%$7.50to$9.99$14-$3.6-20%$10.00to$14.99$12-$2.2-15%$15.00to$19.99$3.7-$0.7-15%$20.00to$29.99$3.6-$0.5-13%$30.00to$49.99$4.6$0.513%$50.00to$99.99$3.1-$0.3-10%$100.00to$199.99$1.2$0.112%$200.00andover$1.2-$0.1-5%Totalvalue$361-$11-3%ExportstotheUKunder$5perlitreFOBdeclinedby2percentinvalueto$286million(seeFigure8)andincreasedby2percentinvolumeto212millionlitres.Thisreflectedgrowthinunpackagedexports(upby4percentinvolume)andadeclineof23percentinpackagedexportsinthispricesegment.ExportstotheUKvaluedat$5perlitreFOBandabovedeclinedby7percentinvalueto$75millionand6percentinvolumeto8.3millionlitres.Whilethe$5to$7.49pricesegmentgrewby4percentinvalue(seeFigure8),exportsbetween$7.50and$9.99andthosevaluedabove$10perlitredeclinedduringtheperiod.AustraliaisthenumberonesourceofwineintheUKoff-trademarketandiskeepingpacewiththemarketintermsofgrowth-increasingby2percentinvalueinthe12monthstoDecember2023 Circana,whilevolumedeclinedby3percent.Ingeneral,thevaluegrowthforallsourcesofwinecouldbedrivenbyinflation,whichhasbeenexceedinglyhighintheUK.WineAustralia'sRegionalGeneralManagerUK/EMEALauraJewellMWsaid,*,lnDecember,theUK,soverallinflationrateof4percentwasinlinewiththegovernmentstargetfortheendoftheyear.However,asaresultofthenewalcoholdutiessystemwhichcameintoeffectinAugust2023,inflationforwineandspiritsiswellabovetheoverallinflationrateatjustunder9.6percent.ItisadifficulttimeAustraliaforthehospitalitysectorasitisbeingimpactedbyproposedincreasedbusinessratesandtaxes,andtransportstrikeswhicharesettocontinueinto2024.Off-tradesalesareholdingtheirownasconsumerscontinuetopurchaseforhomeratherthaneatingoutandthemajorbrandswithretailerlistingsarebenefittingfromthis."OtherEuropeExportstoEurope(excludingtheUK)declinedby14percentinvalueto$184millionand7percentinvolumeto89millionlitres.Thetop14destinationalldeclinedbyvalueastheregioncontinuestostrugglethroughhigherinflationratesthanNorthAmericaandAsiaPacificandsupplychainissues.TheRedSeaconflicti