世界经济论坛-2024年全球风险报告（英）-2024.docx

TheGlobalRisksReport202419thEditionINSIGHTREPORT.举InpartnershipwithMarshMcLennanandZurichInsuranceGroupJanuary 2024TheGlobalRisksReport2024TermsofuseanddisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.World Economic Forum 91-93 route de Ia Capite CH-1223 CoIognyZGeneva SwitzerlandTel.: +41 (0)22 8691212Fax:+41 (0)22 786 2744E-mail: contactweforum.orgCopyright © 2024 by the World Economic ForumAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum.ISBN: 978-2-940631-64-3The report and an interactive data platform are available at QlobaI-risks-reoort-2024/.ContentsPreface4Overviewofmethodology5Keyfindings6Chapter 1: GlobalRisks2024:Ataturningpoint121.1 Theworldin2024121.2 Thepathto2026141.3 Falseinformation181.4 Riseinnflict221.5 Economicuncertainty271.6 Lkingahead321.7 notes33Chapter 2: GlobalRisks2034:Overthelimit372.1 Theworldin2034372.2 Structuralforces402.3 A3world422.4 Alincharge502.5 Theendofdevelopment?572.6 Crimewave682.7 Preparingforthedecadeahead762.8 notes77Chapter 3: Respondingtoglobalrisks853.1 LOCaIiZedstrategies863.2 Breakthroughendeavors873.3 Collectiveactions893.4 Cross-bordercoordination903.5 Conclusion923.6 notes94Appendix A: DefinitionsandGlobalRisksList95Appendix B: GlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey2023-202499Appendix C: ExecutiveOpinionSurvey:NationalRiskPerceptions102Appendix D: Riskgovernance112PartnerInstitutes115Acknowledgements121PrefaceSaadiaZahidiManagingDirectorLastyear'sGlobalRisksHepozTwamedofaworldthatwouldnoteasilyreboundfromcontinuedshocks.As2024begins,the19theditionofthereportissetagainstabackdropofrapidlyaeleratingtechnologicalchangeandenomicuncertainty,astheworldisplaguedbyaduoofdangerouscrises:climateandconflict.Underlyinggeopoliticaltensionscombinedwiththeeruptionofactivehostilitiesinmultipleregionsisntributingtoanunstableglobalordercharacterizedbypolarizingnarratives,erodingtrustandinsecurity.Atthesametime,countriesaregrapplingwiththeimpactsofrecord-breakingextremeweather,asclimate-changeadaptationeffortsandresourcesfallshortofthetype,scaleandintensityofclimate-relatedeventsalreadytakingplace.Cost-of-livingpressurescontinuetobite,amidstpersistentlyelevatedinflationandinterestratesandntinuedeconomicuncertaintyinmuchoftheworld.Despondentheadlinesareborderless,sharedregularlyandwidely,andasenseoffrustrationatthestatusquoisincreasinglypalpable.Together,thisleavesamplermforacceleratingrisks-likemisinformationanddisinformation-topropagateinsocietiesthathavealreadybeenpoliticallyandeconomicallyweakenedinrecentyears.Justasnaturalecosystemscanbepushedtothelimitandbecomesomethingfundamentallynew;suchsystemicshiftsarealsotakingplaceacrossotherspheres:geostrategic,demographicandtechnological.Thisyear,weexploretheriseofglobalrisksagainstthebackdropofthesetlStructuraIforces"aswellasthetectonicclashesbetweenthem.Thenextsetofglobalconditionsmaynotnecessarilybebetterorworsethanthelast,butthetransitionwillnotbeaneasyone.Thereportexplorestheglobalrisklandscapeinthisphaseoftransitionandgovernancesystemsbeingstretchedbeyondtheirlimit.Itanalysesthemostsevereperceivedriskstoeconomiesandsocietiesovertwoand10years,inthecontextoftheseinfluentialforces.Couldwecatapulttoa3worldastheimpactsofclimatechangeintrinsicallyrewritetheplanet?Havewereachedthepeakofhumandevelopmentforlargepartsoftheglobalpopulation,givendeterioratingdebtandgeo-economicnditions?Couldwefaceanexplosionofcriminalityandcorruptionthatfeedsonmorefragilestatesandmorevulnerablepopulations?Willan"armsraceninexperimentaltechnologiespresentexistentialthreatstohumanity?Thesetransnationalriskswillbecomehardertohandleasglobalcperationerodes.Inthisyear'sGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey,two-thirdsofrespondentspredictthatamultipolarorderwilldominateinthenext10years,asmiddleandgreatpowerssetandenforce-butalsocontest-currentrulesandnorms.Thereportconsiderstheimplicationsofthisfragmentedworld,wherepreparednessforglobalrisksisevermorecriticalbutishinderedbylackofconsensusandcooperation.Italsopresentsaconceptualframeworkforaddressingglobalrisks,identifyingthescopefor44minimumviableefforf,foraction,dependingonthenatureoftherisk.Theinsightsinthisreportareunderpinnedbynearlytwodecadesoforiginaldataonglobalriskperception.ThereporthighlightsthefindingsfromourannualGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey,whichbringstogetherthecollectiveintelligenceofnearly1,500globalleadersacrossacademia,business,government,theinternationalmmunityandcivilsociety.Italsoleveragesinsightsfromover200thematicexperts,includingtheriskspecialiststhatformtheGlobalRisksReportAdvisoryBoard,GlobalFutureCouncilonComplexRisks,andtheChiefRiskOfficersCommunity.Wearealsodeeplygratefultoourlong-standingpartners,MarshMcLennanandZurichInsuranceGroup,fortheirinvaluablecontributionsinshapingthethemesandnarrativeofthereport.Finally,wewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetothecoreteamthatdevelopedthisreport-EllissaCavaciuti-Wishart,SophieHeadingandKevinKohler-andtoRickyLiandAttilioDiBattistafortheirsupport.Thefutureisnotfixed.Amultiplicityofdifferentfuturesisconceivableoverthenextdecade.Althoughthisdrivesuncertaintyintheshortterm,italsoallowsroomforhope.Alongsideglobalrisksandtheera-definingchangesunderwaylieuniqueopportunitiestorebuildtrust,optimismandresilienceinourinstitutionsandsocieties.Itisourhopethatthereportsen/esasavitalcalltoactionforopenandconstructivedialogueamongleadersofgovernment,businessandcivilsocietytotakeactiontominimizeglobalrisksandbuilduponlong-termopportunitiesandsolutions.OverviewofmethodologyTheGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey(GRPS)hasunderpinnedtheGlobalRiSkSReportlornearlytwodecadesandistheWorldEconomicForum'spremiersourceoforiginalglobalrisksdata.Thisyear,sGRPShasbroughttogetherleadinginsightsontheevolvingglobalriskslandscapefrom1,490expertsacrossacademia,business,government,theinternationalcommunityandcivilsociety.ResponsesfortheGRPS2023-2024werecollectedfrom4Septemberto9October2023.uGIobaIrisk"isdefinedasthepossibilityoftheoccurrenceofaneventorconditionwhich,ifitoccurs,wouldnegativelyimpactasignificantproportionofglobalGDP1populationornaturalresources.Relevantdefinitionsforeachofthe34globalrisksareincludedinAppendixA:DefinitionsandGlobalRisksList.TheGRPS2023-2024includedthefollowingmponents:- Risklandscapeinvitedrespondentstoassessthelikelyimpact(severity)ofglobalrisksoveraone-,two-and10-yearhorizontoillustratethepotentialdevelopmentofindividualglobalrisksovertimeandidentifyareasofkeyconcern.- Consequencesaskedrespondentstoconsidertherangeofpotentialimpactsofariskarising,tohighlightrelationshipsbetweenglobalrisksandthepotentialforcompoundingcrises.- Riskgovernanceinvitedrespondentstoreflectonwhichapproacheshavethemostpotentialfordrivingactiononglobalriskreductionandpreparedness.- Outlookaskedrespondentstopredicttheevolutionofkeyaspectsunderpinningtheglobalriskslandscape.RefertoAppendixB:GlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey2023-2024formoredetailonthemethodology.TocomplementGRPSdataonglobalrisks,thereportalsodrawsontheWorldEconomicForum'sExecutiveOpinionSurvey(EOS)toidentifyrisksthatposethemostseverethreattoeachcountryoverthenexttwoyears,asidentifiedbyover11,000businessleadersin113economies.WhenconsideredincontextwiththeGRPS,thisdataprovidesinsightintolocalconcernsandprioritiesandpointstopotentialuhotspots"andregionalmanifestationsofglobalrisks.RefertoAppendixC:ExecutiveOpinionSurvey:NationalRiskPerceptionsformoredetails.Finally,thereportintegratestheviewsofleadingexpertstogenerateforesightandtosupportanalysisofthesurveydata.Contributionswerecollectedfrom55colleaguesacrosstheWorldEconomicForum'splatforms.Thereportalsoharnessesqualitativeinsightsfromover160expertsfromacrossacademia,business,government,theinternationalcommunityandcivilsocietythroughcommunitymeetings,privateinterviewsandthematicworkshopsconductedfromMaytoOctober2023.TheseincludetheGlobalRisksAdvisoryBoard,GlobalFutureCouncilonComplexRisksandtheChiefRisksOfficersCommunity.RefertoAcknowledgementsformoredetail.KeyfindingsTheGlobalRisksReport2024presentsthefindingsoftheGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey(GRPS)swhichcapturesinsightsfromnearly1,500globalexperts.Thereportanalysesglobalrisksthroughthreetimeframestosupportdecision-makersinbalancingcurrentcrisesandlonger-termpriorities.Chapter1exploresthemostseverecurrentrisks,andthoserankedhighestbysurveyrespondents,overatwo-yearperiod,analysingindepththethreerisksthathaverapidlyacceleratedintothetop10rankingsoverthetwo-yearhorizon.Chapter2focusesonthetoprisksemergingoverthenextdecadeagainstabackdropofgeostrategic,climate,technologicalanddemographicshifts,divingdeeperintofourspecificriskoutlooks.Thereportconcludesbyconsideringapproachesforaddressingcomplexandnon-linearaspectsofglobalrisksduringthisperiodofglobalfragmentation.Belowarethekeyfindingsofthereport.Adeterioratingglobaloutlook1.ookingbackattheeventsof2023,plentyofdevelopmentscapturedtheattentionofpeoplearoundtheworld-whileothersreceivedminimalscrutiny.Vulnerablepopulationsgrappledwithlethalconflicts,fromSudantoGazaandIsrael,alongsiderecord-breakingheatconditions,drought,wildfiresandflooding.Societaldiscontentwaspalpableinmanycountries,withnewscyclesdominatedbypolarization,violentprotests,riotsandstrikes.Althoughgloballydestabilizingconsequences-suchasthoseseenattheinitialoutbreakoftheRussia-UkrainewarortheCOVID-19pandemic-werelargelyavoided,thelonger-termoutlookforthesedevelopmentscouldbringfurtherglobalshocks.Asweenter2024,2023-2024GRPSresultshighlightapredominantlynegativeoutlookfortheworldoverthenexttwoyearsthatisexpectedtoworsenoverthenextdecade(FigureA).SurveyedinSeptember2023,themajorityofrespondents(54%)anticipatesomeinstabilityandamoderateriskofglobalcatastrophes,whileanother30%expectevenmoreturbulentconditions.Theoutlookismarkedlymorenegativeoverthe10-yeartimehorizon,withnearlytwo-thirdsofrespondentsexpectingastormyorturbulentoutlook.Inthisyear'sreport,wecontextualizeouranalysisthroughfourstructuralforcesthatwillshapethematerializationandmanagementofglobalrisksoverthenextdecade.Thesearelonger-termshiftsinthearrangementofandrelationshipbetweenfoursystemicelementsofthegloballandscape:- TrajectoriesrelatingtoglobalwarmingandrelatedconsequencestoEarthsystems(Climatechange).- Changesinthesize,growthandstructureofpopulationsaroundtheworld(Demographicbifurcation).FIGURE AShort term (2 years)Long term (10 years)Stormy: Global catastrophic risks loomingTurbulent: Upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophesUnsettled: Some instability, moderate risk of global catastrophesStable: Isolated disruptions, low risk of global catastrophes Calm: Negligible risk of global catastrophesShortandlong-termglobaloutlookvWhichofthefollowingbestcharacterizesyouroutlookfortheWoddoverthefollowingtimeperiods?"NoteThepercentagesinthegraphmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.- Developmentalpathwaysforfrontiertechnologies(Technologicalacceleration).- Materialevolutionintheconcentrationandsourcesofgeopoliticalpower(Geostrategicshifts).Anewsetofglobalconditionsistakingshapeacrosseachofthesedomainsandthesetransitionswillbecharacterizedbyuncertaintyandvolatility.Associetiesseektoadapttothesechangingforces,theircapacitytoprepareforandrespondtoglobalriskswillbeaffected.EnvironmentalriskscouldhitthepointofnoreturnEnvironmentalriskscontinuetodominatetheriskslandscapeoverallthreetimeframes.Two-thirdsofGRPSrespondentsrankExtremeweatherasthetopriskmostlikelytopresentamaterialcrisisonaglobalscalein2024(FigureB),withthewarmingphaseoftheElNino-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)cycleprojectedtointensifyandpersistuntilMaythisyear.Itisalsoseenasthesecond-mostsevereriskoverthetwo-yeartimeframeandsimilartolastyear'srankings,nearlyallenvironmentalrisksfeatureamongthetop10overthelongerterm(FigureC).However,GRPSrespondentsdisagreeabouttheurgencyofenvironmentalrisks,inparticularBiodiversitylossandecosystemcollapseandCriticalchangetoEarthsystems.Youngerrespondentstendtoranktheserisksfarmorehighlyoverthetwo-yearperiodcomparedtoolderagegroups,withbothrisksfeaturingintheirtop10rankingsintheshortterm.Theprivatesectorhighlightstheserisksastopconcernsoverthelongerterm,incontrasttorespondentsfromcivilsocietyorgovernmentwhoprioritizetheserisksovershortertimeframes.Thisdissonanceinperceptionsofurgencyamongkeydecision-makersimpliessub-optimalalignmentanddecision-making,heighteningtheriskofmissingkeymomentsofintervention,whichwouldresultinlong-termchangestoplanetarysystems.Chapter2.3:A3worldexplorestheconsequencesofpassingatleastone"climatetippingpoint"withinthenextdecade.Recentresearchsuggeststhatthethresholdfortriggeringlong-term,potentiallyirreversibleandself-perpetuatingchangestoselectplanetarysystemsislikelytobepassedatorbefore1.5oCofglobalwarming,whichiscurrentlyanticipatedtobereachedbytheearly2030s.Manyeconomieswillremainlargelyunpreparedforunon-lineaimpacts:thepotentialtriggeringofanexusofseveralrelatedsioenvironmentalriskshasthepotentialtospeedupclimatechange,throughthereleaseofcarbonemissions,andamplifyrelatedimpacts,threateningclimate-vulnerablepopulations.Thecollectiveabilityofsocietiestoadaptcouldbeoverwhelmed,consideringthesheerscaleofpotentialimpactsandinfrastructureinvestmentrequirements,leavingsomecommunitiesandcountriesunabletoabsorbboththeacuteandchroniceffectsofrapidclimatechange.Aspolarizationgrowsandtechnologicalrisksremainunchecked,4truth,willcomeunderpressureSocietalpolarizationfeaturesamongthetopthreerisksoverboththecurrentandtwo-yeartimehorizons,ranking#9overtheIongerterm.Inaddition,SocietalpolarizationandEconomicdownturnareseenasthemostinterconnected-andthereforeinfluential-risksintheglobalrisksnetwork(FigureD),asdriversandpossibleconsequencesofnumerousrisks.FIGURE BRisk categoriesI Economic Environmental GeopoliticalI SocietalI TechnologicalExtreme weatherAl generated misinformation and disinformation3-Societal and/or political polarization46Cost-of-living crisis5.CyberattacksCurrentrisklandscape"Pleaseselectuptofiverisksthatybelievearemostlikelytopresentamaterialaisisonaglobalscalein2024.FIGURE CGlobalrisksrankedbyseverityovertheshortandlongterm"Pleaseestimatethelikelyimpact(severity)ofthefollowingrisksovera2-yearand10-yearperiod.RiskcategoriesIEconomicIEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnological2years10yearsMisinformationanddisinforma