世界经济论坛-转变能源需求（英）-2024.1.docx

IncollaborationwithPwCWQRLDECONOMICF(DRUMTransformingEnergyDemandWHITEPAPERJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 Whytransformingenergydemandmatters52 Thethreeenergydemandlevers113 Businesssolutions-overallapproach134 Businesssolutions-selectedinterventionsforchange15inbuildings,industryandtransport4.1 Industry164.2 Buildings244.3 Transport295 Governmentleadership33Conclusion37Appendix38A1Modellingmethodology38Contributors40Endnotes44DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandndusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollat>orativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024TransformingEnergyDemandForewordAnaBotinExecutiveChairman,TheSantanderGroup;Chair,InternationalBusinessCouncilBobMorrtzGlobalChair,PwC;Member,InternationalBusinessCouncilOlivierSchwabManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForumAstheglobalenergysystemundergoesarapidtransformation,leadersacrossallsectorsneedtollaboratetoaelerateanenergytransitionthatcreatespositiveoutcomesforpeople,societyandtheplanet.Theprivatesectorcanplayaleadingroleindrivingthistransformation.Thatiswhyayearago,theInternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC),agroupthattogetherrepresents3%ofglobalenergyuse,decidedtofocusonenergydemand.Thisisanunder-addressedareathatwillallowustoincreaseeconomicoutput,whilereducinggreenhousegasemissions(GHG)anddrivingupglobalaccesstoenergy.Ourresearchshowsthattherearemanytangibleactionsthatallbusinessescantaketodaytoactonenergydemand.Thepotentialofthisdemand-sideactionisextraordinary,offeringashort-term,cost-efficient31%reductionofdemand,sharedacrossalleconomicsectors.Thesegainsaredeliverablenow,atattractivereturns,needingnonewtechnology.SuchconcertedactionwouldunlockgrowthandproductivitywhilegettingtheworldbackontracktomeetthetargetssetsbytheParisAgreement.Atthesametime,itwouldsupportdeliveryofthepledgebyover120countriesatCOP28todoubletheglobalaverageannualrateofenergyefficiencyimprovement.Thesefindingsshouldbeexcitingforallleaders,ingrowthandmaturemarketsalike,andwethankalltheIBCmembersfortheirsupportindrivingthiswork.Ourambitionistogettheworldtoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyitseffortstoreachnetzero.Wehopethispaperwillinspiremanyotherbusinessesandgovernmentstojointhiseffort.Thereisnotimetolose.ExecutivesummaryActionsonenergydemandcanbetakenbyallcompaniesnow,areprofitableandcanaccelerateprogresstowardsclimategoals.Thevalueofactiononenergydemandiscompelling:apossible31%reductioninenergyintensityandupto$2trillioninannualsavingsifmeasuresweretobetakenby2030(seeAppendix,A1:Methodology).Reducingenergyintensity-energyusedperunitofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)-wouldboostgrowthbyenablingpreviouslywastedorover-utilizedenergytoberedirectedtomoreproductiveactivities.Itwouldalsohelpmpaniessavecashandmaintaincompetitiveadvantagewhilereducingemissions.Thispaperoutlinesthevalueofactionsonenergydemandfromtheprivateandpublicsectorsandhowtodeliverthem.Actionsaredoabletoday,atattractivereturnswithexistingtechnology,andsoitisbelievedthisestablishesacompellingcasetoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyinthejourneytonetzero.Findingawaytoreduceorevenreversethepaceofenergydemandgrowthwhilesupportingeconomicoutputiscritical.By2050,theworld'spopulationwillgrowbytwobillion,andGDPisforecasttodouble.Emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiesneedabundantandlow-costenergytoenablegrowthandmeetdevelopmentgoals.Simultaneously,theworldistargetingsupplydecarbonization.Actingondemandandsupplysimultaneouslyisthebestwaytoachievethesechanges.Actingonenergyconsumptionisdoable,affordableandprofitable.Thisresearchshowsthatallcompaniesandcountriescanuseexistingleverstoreduceenergyintensity.Acrossbuildings,industryandtransport(BIT),InternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC)examplesillustratethattheseactions,wheresupportedbyappropriatepublicpolicy,canenabletheworldtoreduceitsenergyneedsbyapproximatelyathirdwhilefreeingfurthereconomicoutput.Affordabilityisalsoclear,withinterventionspotentiallyfullypaidbackgloballywithinadecade,drivingestimatedannualsavingsintherangeof$2trillion.Threeleverscandeliverthischange.First,t,energysavings"-operationalimprovementinterventionsfundedthroughoperatingexpenditure(OpEx).Resultsaretypicallyimmediatebutoftenoverlookedastheyrequirecoordinatingmanyinterventionsacrossanorganizationandconstantenergycostimprovement."Energyefficiency"poolsmeasuresunderdirectcompanycontrolthatrequirecapitalexpenditure(CapEx).Together,savingsandefficienciesofferbusinessesthelower-hangingfruitandatleasthalfoftheimprovementsinenergyintensitythatthisresearchhasidentified.ThefinalleverisuvaluechainCollaborationn,whereworkingdirectlywithsuppliersandbusinesspartnersofferscompanyagencyoverenergyimpact,reducingcostandgettingaheadoftheracetonetzero.Eachsectorneedsa,*roadmap"toguidecompanyandgovernmentaction.Companyandnationalenergytransitionplansareneededtocapturethebenefitsofmanagingenergynsumptionwhileintegratingsupply-sideactions.Businessesacrosstheenergydemandandsupplyspectrumwillneedtoworktogetherwithgovernmenttodeveloptheseplansandincreaseawarenessoftheroutesandresultsavailabletoaddressbarrierstoaction.Developingtheseplansistheessentialnextstepinraisingawarenessandgettingbehindactiononenergydemand.AtCOP28,over120countriespledgedtodoublethepaceofenergyefficiencyimprovement.TheIBCcanbealeadingprivatesectorgrouptosupportcountriesintheirambition.WhytransformingenergydemandmattersActionsonenergydemandcanreduceenergyconsumptionbyupto31%,savingupto$2trillionperannum.Whatifabusinesscouldreduceitsannualoperatingcostsby10%withinthreeyears?Whatwouldbetheimplicationsforacompany,sstockpriceifitcouldincreasemarginsonasustainedbasisby200-300basispoints?Allwhilesimultaneouslybuildingbothmeasurableprogressonreducinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsanddeliveringgreaterresilienceinoperations.Thesearenottrickquestions,butarebasedonrealexamplesfromIBCmembers.Theanswerliesattherootofthisstudy:transformingenergydemand.FIGURE1TheenergytriangleSustainabilityandclimatechangeTimeframe>JustandaffordabilityEnergysecurityandresilienceDemandIndustryUrbanandbuildingsTransportDeliveryTransmissionPipelinesInfrastructureSupplyRenewableNuclearFossilfuelsEnablers:、Policy,finance,collaborationtechnology,digitalizationandworkforceGeopolitics/EnergytransitionEconomiesSource:WorldEcomicForum,FosteringEffectiveEnergyTransition,2023.Note:Thetrianglerepresentstheenergytrilemma-theimperativeofdeliveringajustenergytransitionwhileensuringaffordability,securityandsustainability.®To date, there has been too heavy a reliance on governments and the energy industry, not the wider economy, to deliver net zero.TheproblemTheenergytransitioncreatesimmenseandgrowingtensionsbetweentheimperativesofsecurity,affordabilityandsustainability(seeFigure1).SecurityOnenergysecurity,thefirstchallengeistosimultaneouslymaintainasecureandstablesupplyofenergyamidanincreasinglyvolatilegeopoliticalsituation,allwhiletransformingtoday'shydrocarbon-dominatedsupply.In2021-22,Europegrappledwithenergyshortagesandpricesthathavethreatenedtheindustrialbaseandforcedgovernmentstoprocuretheiroilandgasfromtheflowsnormallydestinedtootheremergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDE),1whichinturnhadtoresorttohighercoalconsumptionandoverallfacehigherenergyprices.AffordabilityThesecondchallenge,affordability,istoensurethatenergyiseconomicnotjustforbusinessesbutforsocietyingeneral.Whileforecastsdifferonthelevelofenergydemandin2050(seeFigure2),theexpecteddoublingofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andtheadditionoftwobillionpeoplewillintensifypressureonenergysupplysystems,2particularlyinEMDE,whichareresponsibleforapproximately60%ofcurrentdemand.Thesemarketsneedaclearrangeofroutestoeconomicgrowth,whichincludeabundantaccesstoaffordablecleanenergy.3Ifthefuturelevelofenergydemandisnotmetbyadequatesupply,itcouldleadtohigherpricesandobstaclestogrowthandcompetitiveness.SustainabilityThethirdchallenge,sustainability,istomeetthisgrowthinenergydemandinawaythatkeepstheworldontracktomeetthe2050ParisAgreement.Evenwithanassumedthree-foldgrowthinrenewableenergy,scenariosforecastasignificantshortfallincleanenergysupplyby2050(seeFigure3),whichcouldbemetwithmorefossilfuel-basedenergy.Thisisas,ifnotmore,trueinEMDE,duetothelackofadequaterenewablesupplychains.Todate,themajorityofdebateandactionhasbeenfocusedongovernmentsandenergycompaniesdrivingchangesinenergysupply.Thishasresultedinremarkablechangesintheenergysystem,withrapidincreasesinemissions-freeanddecentralisedelectricitygeneration.However,thetrajectoryoftheenergytransitionremainsoff-trackcomparedtoclimateanddevelopmentgoals,hinderedbyissuessuchasslowpermittingandpooraccesstofinance.Therefore,whileactiononenergysupplyremainscrucial,itwillbedifficultforittobetheansweralone.FIGURE 2Forecastdemandgrowthto2050Percentagegrowthintotalenergyconsumptionacrossdifferingglobalscenarios(sample)%,baseyearto2050.Current policies . Further actionSources:InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),NetZeroRoadmap:AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach,2023;Shell,TheEnergySecurityScenarios,2019:ExxonMobil,ExxonMobiIGlobalOutlook,2023;SchneiderElectric,Backto2050:1.5CCismorefeasiblethanwethink,2021:Equinor,2023EnergyPerspectives,2023;bp,bpEnergyOutlook2023Edition,2023;IEA1WorldEnergyOutlook2023.2023;TotaIEnergies1TotaIEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022,2022.FIGURE3IShortfallinrenewableenergysupplyvsdemandfromcommercialsourcesGlobalcommercial*totalfinalconsumptionandrenewableenergysupplyandIEAstatedpolicies(STEPS)scenario,exajoules(EJ),2022-205075%42%304Supplyshortfall3922022Supplyshortfall227752050Commercialenergydemand.Renewableenergysupply*AIIenergydemandfrommmercialbuildings,industryandtransport,excludingresidentialbuildingsandroadtransport.Sources:IEA1WorkiEnergyOUtIoOk2023,2023.Thesolution:actiononenergyconsumptionalongsidesupplyItis,therefore,vitaltoaddressenergydemandalongsidesupply,reducingtheenergyintensityofcurrentactivityandfuturegrowth.Demand-sideactionisanareawherethebusinessandsocialcasesfordemand-sideactionoverlapclosely.Suchactioncanincreaseproductivity,whileunlockingaesstoenergyandeconomicgrowth.Thisisdonebyreallocatingpreviouslywastedorunnecessarily-usedenergytonewconsumersand/ornewuses.Afterall,thecheapestformofenergyisenergythatisnotused.There'salsoaclearopportunitycost-anydelayinactionwillforceincreasedenergyspendingandcontinuedmissingofclimategoals.Thegreatnewsisthattransformingenergydemandisdoableandaffordablenow.Allcompanies,regardlessofsector,cantapintoexisting,affordabletechnologiestoreduceenergyintensity-thatis,usinglessenergytocreatethesame(orgreater)output.Thisinturnwillreduceemissionsintensity(thevolumeofemissionscreatedinmanufacturingaproductorprovidingaservice)duetoenergy-relatedemissionsbeingreduced.Measurestotackleenergyconsumptionarealsobeneficialacrossallmarkets,asdeliveringhigheroutputwithlowerenergyuseisauniversalgood.However,benefitswillvaryinimportancebetweenmarkets.Forexample,indevelopedeconomies,lowerenergyintensityhelpstoenhancecompetitivenessthroughlowertotalenergycostwhileattenuatingenvironmentalrisks.InEMDE1takingactiontomanageenergydemandaswellasfocusingonthesupplycanimproveaccesstosecureenergy,improvingtheabilitytoattractinvestmentwhileofferingtheopportunitytoavoidlow-efficiencylegacysystemsseenindevelopedeconomies.SizeoftheenergydemandprizeThisstudybreaksglobalenergydemandintouBITs"-buildings,industryandtransport.Together,theseaountfor94%ofglobaldemand.4Achievable6interventionshavebeenidentifiedacrosstheseareasthatwouldreduceoverallenergyintensitybyaround31%relativetocurrentlevels(seeFigure4),withfurther,harder-to-deliverinterventionsincreasingthisto42%(seeFigure6).FIGURE 4Short-termreductionpotentialofenergydemandactions(achievablescenarioonly) 2022 global energy demand by verticalPotentialenergyintensityreductionbyvertical(achievable Achievable is defined as interventions that are currently technologically available at scale with associated data available on their energy intensity impact; 4,Percentage does not total 31%due to rounding.Sources: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023,2023.)Potentialenergyintensityreductionforthewholeeconomy(achievable*)31%442EJ21%6%Other4%Other26%Transport30%Buildings38%Industry5%Transport12%Buildings11%Industry2022 demandIndustryBuildingsTransport-In(1),individualinterventionsbyverticalareidentified(e.g.installingmoreefficientelectricmotors),andtheirpotentialimpactonvertical-wideenergyintensityissummed.-Togaintheoverallimpactofthesechangesonglobaldemand,thesearethenscaledbytheproportionofenergydemandthateachverticalrepresents(2).Inaddition,anaverageintensityreductionisappliedtosectorsnotconsideredindepth(definedas"other")-Thisresultsin(3),thepotentialcombinedimpactofindividualinterventionsonglobalenergyintensity.Tounderstandhowtheseinterventionswouldaffecttheworldovertime,thisreportconsiderswhatwouldoccuriftheseinterventionsweregloballyenactedby2030(seeAppendix,A1:Methodology).Thiswasachievedbyfirstmodellingenergydemandin2030ifnoenergyintensityimprovementweremadebetween2022and2030("noefficiency"scenario,seeFigure5).FIGURE5IForecastofunoefficiency"scenario,20302022energydemand:Totalenergyconsumed,2022Impactofmakingnoenergyefficiencyprogress2030"noefficiency-scenario:Forecast2030energydemandifnofurtherefficiencygainsaremadeSource:IEA1WorldEnergyOutlook2023,2023.Ifappliedtothe"noefficiencyscenarioin2030,theseinterventionswouldallowoutputtobemaintainedwithlessenergy,resultinginareductioninenergyintensityaround19%belowthelevelsforecastifcurrentpoliciesareenacted(seeFigure6).Onanannualbasis,thiswouldcorrespondtoanimprovementinenergyintensityof4.6%perannum.SuchgainsareaheadofthetargetsetbytheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)andthelntematialRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)ofdoublingthecurrentratetoover4%toreachnetzero.Asaresult,ifdelivered,theseinten/entionswouldputtheworldaheadofthetargetsintheParisAgreements.FIGURE 6Impactofproposedinterventionsonglobalenergydemand,20306EJ,2030,globalForecastenergydemandin2030ifhistoricalrateofenergyefficiencyimprovementismaintainedNet zero scenario f