世界银行-2024年世界经济形势与展望（英）-2024.docx

WorldEconomicSituationandProspectsTheWo11"tmco<<o½icSitpatio«a«',Pibw»Gctwnn4isafepoftpoducedbytheUnitedNationsDepaftmentofEconomicandSocialAffaiis(UNDESA),inpaitneishipwiththeUnitedNationsConfefenceonTiadeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)andthefiveUnitedNationsIegionalcommissions：theEconomicCommissionfofAffica(ECA),EconomicCommissionfofEuiope(UNECE),EconomicCommissionfoLatinAmeficaandtheCafibbean(ECLAC),EconomicandSocialCommissionfofAsiaandthePacific(ESCAP)andEconomicandSocialCommissionfoWesteinAsia(ESCWA).TheUnitedNationsOfficeoftheHighRepfesentativefotheLeastDevelopedCountfies,LandlockedDevelopingCountliesandSmallIslandDevelopingStates(UN-OHRLLS)andtheUnitedNationsWofldToufismOfganization(UNWTO)alsoContfibutedtothe(epot.DepartmentofEconomicandRncialAffairsFofTmftksfInTofmation,vicitktt:c:ofcontact:UNDESA1.iJmnkma,Unwsf-SscfstafQ-CsnsfaIDs:aftmsntoT)conomican»Social6fFaicRoomS-n9nnUnitedNationsNswYoik,NY10017USA1.+l-nln-96S9J8Dmn»scamn.ofgUNCTADRs»seaCfQncian,SscfstafQ-CsnsfalUnitedNationsConfeienceonTiadeandDevelopmentRoom)-904nPalaic»sNationc,8-14InllCsnsva10Switzsflan>>U+41-nn-917S806-1cgomncta».ofgECAClavsfCatsts,).scmtivsSscistaiQUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionfofAfficaMsnslikIl6vsnmsP.O.Do.001AddisAbabaEthiopiaU+nSl-ll-SSllnl'_1scainTomnsca.oigUNECETatianaMolcsan,).scmtivsSscfstafQUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionfofEuiopePalaisdesNationsCH-InllCsnsva10Switzsflanwt.+41-nn-9174444-1mnscs_inTomn.ofgECLACJocManmslSalazaf-Xifinackc,).scmtivsSscfstaiQEconomicCommissionfofLatinAmeHcaandtheCafibbean6v.DagHammafckjl>>,477VitacufaSantiago,CkilsChile1.+S6-n-nnl0n00011cscs：alcs：al.ofgESCAP6fmi»aSalciak61icjak>>ana.).scmtivsSsdstafQ)conomican»SocialCommiccionTof6ciaan»tksPacificUnitedNationsBuildingRaja>>amnsfnNok6vsnmsBangkokIOnOOThailand1.+66-n-n881n4臼scca:"ccacmn.oigESCWARolaDackti,).scmtivsSscistaiQEconomicandSocialCommissionfoWesteinAsiaP.O.Do.ll-8$7$Ria»sl-SolkS<<mas,Dsiimt1.ebanonJ+961-l-98101ktt:c:/1ISDN:978-9n-l-00n979-7PDFISDN:978-9n-l-S8644-0PHntISSN:199S-nO74OnlinsISSN:n411-870UnitedNationspublicationSalscNo.).n4.Il.C.lCoiQiigktUnits>>Nationc,nn4AllfightsfesefvedForewordTksnn4s>>itionoTtksUnits>>NationcrWoil"rwco<<o,2icSitatio<<a«"Piow»Gctwis:oitcomscami»ctafkglo>>alsconomicins<<malitiscan»kigkgso:oliticaltsncionc.WkilslicksconomisckavsIafgslQ»omncs»»ackTfomtksCOVID-19：an»smic,»svslo:ingsconomisckavsIoctgomn>>.ManQafs>>fowningin»s»t,witkmoistkanatkif>>atlickoTcficic.Invsctmsntinclimatsactionan»cmctaina>>ls»svslo：msnticTallingWosTmllQckoft.Hmngsian»:ovsitQafsontkslies.6n»glowing>>ivicionc>>stwssnComntfiscan»sconomiscafsnsvsntingansffsetivsfsc:oncs.6ctkicfs:oftmakscclsaf,nn4ic：fojscts»to»sanotkstomgkQsaf.Slmggickglo>>algfowtkic:fojscts»toclowTmftksLInvsctmsntwillfsmainwsak.Tks»s»tcficicwillcontinmstoc：ifal,ac»s»tcsivicso>>ligationc(sacknswksigktc.6n»>>svactatingconflictcan»Sccalatings.tfsmswsatksfafs>>fingingmncsftaintQan»ficktotksglo>>alsconomQ.Tksiscmlt:»svslo:msnt>>slaQs>>an»>>snis>>.nn4mmct»stksQsafwksnws>>sakomtoTtkic<<magmis.DQmnlocking»ig,»ol»invsctmsntcwscan>>fivscmctaina>>ls»svslo:msntan»climatsaction,an»：mttksglo>>alsconomQonaCtiongsfgowtk:atkToiall.Wsmmct»mil»ontksnogisccma»sintks:actQsaftowaf>>canSDCStimmlmcoTatIsact?$00>>illion:sfQsafinaffo>>a>>lslong-tsfmfinancingToiinvsctmsntcincmctaina>>ls»svslo：msntan»climatsaction.Tkatinclm>>scincsacingtksca:ital»acsoTMmltilatsfalDsvsloimsntDankcan»ckangingtksi>>mcinsccmo>>slctoIsvsiagsTafmofsnivatsfinancsatfsacona>>lscoctto»svslo：ingcomntfisc.IticalcotimsToiansffsetivs»s»twofkomtmsckanicmtoTfssm:ficcalc：acsTofinvsctmsntinksaltk,s>>mcation,cocialnotsction,>>scsntjo»c,>>igitalinTfactfmctmfsan»fsnswa>>lssnsfgQ.TksSmmmitoTtksFmtmisinSs:tsm»sinn4will»sa:ivotalo:oitmnitQtoa>>vancssTofmcoTto>>aQ,comt»ats»,>>QcTmnctionalan»mnjmctintsfnationalfinancialcQctsm,:fovi»ingaCtfongsfTomn>>ationToftksglo>>alsconomQ.Ins<<malitQictsaiingomfwol>>a：aft.Innn4,wsmmctcsizstkso:o£tmnitQtocfsatsamofsinclmcivs,fscilisntglo>>alsconomQtkatwofkeTofsvsQons,svsQwkss.6nt6nioCmtsffscUnits>>NationcSscistaiQ-CsnsfalExplanatorynotesSymbolsusedinthetablesGEPUGlobalEconomicPolicyUncertainty(Index).ThreedotsindicatethatdataarenotavailableorarenotGNIgrossnationalincomeseparatelyreported.GWPgrossworldproduct-Adashindicatesthattheamountisnilornegligible.G20GroupofTwentyAhyphenindicatesthattheitemisnotapplicable.HIPCHeavilyIndebtedPoorCountries(Initiative)-Aminussignindicatesdeficitordecrease,exceptasindicated.Afullstopisusedtoindicatedecimals.IDBInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank/Aslashbetweenyearsindicatesacropyearorfinancialyear,IEAInternationa!EnergyAgencyforexample,2023/24.IFCInternationalFinanceCorporation-Useofahyphenbetweenyears,forexample,2023-2024,signifiesILOInternationalLabourOrganizationthefullperiodinvolved,includingthebeginningandendyears.IMFInternationalMonetaryFundIPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeKeTerenCeSanatermsIRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyReferenceto"dollars"($)indicatesUnitedStatesdollars,LDCsleastdevelopedcountriesunlessotherwisestated.LHSleft-handscaleReferenceto"billi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Referenceto"tons"indicatesmetrictons,unlessotherwisestated. Annualratesofgrowthorchange,unlessotherwisestated.MDBmultilateraldevelopmentbankMDRIMultilateralDebtReliefInitiativerefertoannualcompoundrates.MVIMultidimensionalVulnerabilityIndexDetailsandpercentagesintablesdonotnecessarilyaddtoNEETnotinemployment,educationOrtrainingtotals,becauseofrounding.OCHAUnitedNationsOfficefortheCoordinationForcountryclassifications,seethestatisticalannex.ofHumanitarianAffairsDatapresentedinthispublicationincorporateinformationODAofficialdevelopmentassistanceavailableasatIDecember2023.AbbreviationsOECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentOPECOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountriesAfCFTAAfricanContinentalFreeTradeAreaPMIPurchasingManagers,IndexAlartificialintelligencePPPpurchasingpowerparityAPPassetpurchaseprogrammeQEquantitativeeasingASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsQTquantitativetighteningBISBankforInternationalSettlementsRaDresearchanddevelopmentBoEBankofEngIandRHSright-handscalebpsbasispointsSDGsSustainableDevelopmentGoalsCGEcomputablegeneralequilibrium(model)SDRsspecialdrawingrightsCISCommonwealthofIndependentStatesSIDSsmallislanddevelopingStatesCOP28TWenty-eighthConferenceofthePartiestotheUnitedUNDESAUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeUN-OHRLLSOfficeoftheHighRepresentativefortheLeastDevelopedDACDevelopmentAssistanceCommitteeCountries,LandlockedDevelopingCountriesandSmallEBRDEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevetopmentIslandDevelopingStatesECAEconomicCommissionforAfricaUNCTADUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentECBEuropeanCentralBankUNDPUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeECLACEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheUNECEUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEuropeCaribbeanUNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeEMBIEmergingMarketsBondIndexUNESCOUnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalESCAPEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacificOrganizationESCWAEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsiaUNICEFUnitedNationsChildren'sFundFAOFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsUNWTOUnitedNationsWorldTourismOrganizationFDIforeigndirectinvestmentWEFWorldEconomicForumFedUnitedStatesFederalReserveWEFMWorldEconomicForecastingModelGCCCperationCouncilfortheArabStatesoftheGulfWFPWorldFoodProgrammeGDPgrossdomesticproductWTOWorldTradeOrganizationAcknowledgementsTks Wo, tmco<<o½ic Sitatio<< a«', Pibw>>Gctw nn4 ic a (s:oit :io»mcs» »Q tks Units>> Nationc Dszaftmsnt oT Jconomic an» Social 6ffaifc (UN D)S6), in :aftnsfcki: witk tks Units>> Nationc ConTsisncs on Tfa>>s an» Dsvsloimsnt (UNCT6D) an» tks fivs Units>> Nationc Csgional commiccionc: tks Economic Commiccion Tof 6Tfica ()C6), )conomic Commiccion Tof )mio:s (UN)C), )conomic Commiccion Tof Latin 6msfica an» tks Cafi»»san ()CL6C), )conomic an» Social Commiccion Toi 6cia an» tks Pacific ()SC6P an» )conomic an» Social Commiccion Tof Wsctsfn 6cia QSCW6). Tks Units>> Nationc Offics oT tks Higk Rszfscsntativs Tof tks Lsact Dsvslo:s» Comntiisc, Lan>>locks>> Dsvsloring Comntiisc an» Small Iclan>> Dsvsloiing Statsc (UN-OHRLLS) an» tks Units>> Nationc Wo>> Tomiicm Oiganization (UNWTO) alco contii»mts» to tks fs:oft. Tks Tofscactc nscsnts>> in tks (s:o£t >>aw on tks Wofl>> )conomic Foiscacting Mo>>sl oT UN D)S6 ac wsll ac in:mtc Tfom tks Units>> Nationc sgional commiccionc.Un>>sf tks gsnsfal gmi>>ancs oT Li Jmnkma, Unwsi-SscistaiQ-Csnsial Toi )conomic an» Social 6ffaifc; Navi>> HaniT, 6ccictant SscfstaiQ-Csnsfal Toi )conomic Dsvsloimsnt; an» Skantanm Mmkksijss, Diisctoi oT tks )conomic 6nalQcic an» PolicQ Divicion ()6PD) oT UN D)S6, Hami>> Racki>>, CkisT oT tks Clo>>al Jconomic Monitofing Dfanck in )6PD, ls» an» cooi>>inats>> tks witing oT tks fs:oit witk a cois tsam oT amtkofc Tfom tks Dfanck. TksQ com:fics» Cfigof 6ga>>skian, Ian Co., Dsina Dogan, 6n>>(sa Dominovic, Zksn<<ian Hmang, NsllQ Rita Mmiimki,DanQifa Psisz, Ingo Pittsfls, KatafzQna Rokocz, Ss>>actian Vsigafa, an» Yacmkica Yamamoto.Tks Tollowing conti>>mtoic to tks is:oit afs »mlQ acknowls»gs»:Hoi Wai Jackis Cksng, Ksnnstk Ivsicsn, Pok LQnn Ng, an» Olivsi Sckwank Tiom UN DESA; Tafo Dosl, StsTan Ccof>>ac, SoTfa Domfngmsz, Clovic Ffsifs, an» tks Iats Janvisi Nkmimnziza Tfom UNCTAD; Ms>>kat )lksls:i, Lss )vsftc, CkaoQi Hm, Hoisctons KaQicka Ckavmla, Lsfato MafQ Litcscans, an» Na>>ia Dsnics Oms>>faogo Tfom ECA; Joc Palacfn Lmcio Tfom UNECE; Ni.is 6»a(«msz, Skmvojit Dansfjss, Kiatkani>> Pongianick, an» Vatckafin Sifimansstkam Tfom ESCAP； 6f:Q 6tamian, Jan Cacka, Mokams>> )1 Moctaf Mokams>> )1 HaCSns, 6kms>> Mommmi, an» SomfaQa Zsin Tfom ESCWA; Miniva Cki>>mQs Tfom UN-OHRLLS; an» San>>a Caivao, Micksl Jmlian, an» Javisf Rmsccac Tfom UNWTO. Tks ECLAC contfi>>mtion ic »acs» on tks tmco<<o½ic SpivGD of Lati« A½Gica a« " IkG Gafi55Ga« nn3.Tks is:o£t >>snsfits>> Tfom scsafck »Q in»s：sn»snt s.：sftc Kfic Cfonswal>>, Mingzs Li, Yiliang Li an» Lm>>ovica Tmicini, an» Tfom >>iccmccionc at an s.:sft gfom: mssting ksl» in Nsw Yoik on n-nl Jmns nn.Pm>>licationc an» a>>minictfativs cm:o(t WSfS :fovi»s» »Q Racksl Da>>fmckinac, Lsak C. Ksnns>>Q, Smzstts C. Limckocf Csfaf>> Fiancic RsQsc, an» Ca>>s Scslta Tiom UN DESA. Tks fs：oft wac s»its» »Q Tsffi Lofs.SUSTAINABLEIQ警梦DEVELOPMENTOWMLOReduce inequality within and among countriesMake cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainableEnsure sustainable consumption and production patternsTake urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsStrengthen the means Ofimplementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentConserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable developmentProtect, restore and promote sustainable use Ofterrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity lossPromote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levelsExecutiveSummary62agilggsilig<<cgmasksM«kgil;i«gisksa«kv,l<<gakilitigsTkswo11>>sconomQ:fovs»mo(sfscilisnttkans.:scts»innnami»CignificantmonstaQtigktsningan»Iingsfing:olicQmncstaintiscwo11>>wi>>s,svsnacckockca11cingTfomconflictan»climatsckangswomgktkavocontksIivscan»livslikoo>>coTmillionc,Tmftksfjso:af»izingnogfscctowaf>>ccmctaina>>ls»svslo：msnt.SsvsfalIafgs»svslo：s»sconomiscckows>>smaika>>lsscilisncs,witkfo>>mctIa>>ommafkstccm:oitingconcmmsfc:sn»ing»sc:itscka(:monstaiQtigktsning.6ttkscamstims,inflationgfa>>mallQ»sclins»inmoctfsgioncontks»ackoTIowsfsnsigQan»Too»:ficsc,allowingcsntfal>>ankctoclowof:amcsintsfsctiatskiksc.TkicvsnssfoTfscilisncs,kowsvsf,mackc»otkckoit-tsimfickcan»Ctimctmfalvmlnsfa>>ilitisc.Un>>sflQing:fics:sccmscafsctillslsvats>>inmanQcomntfisc.6TmftksfSccalationoTconflictcintksMi»»ls)act:ocsctksfickoT»icim：tingsnsigQmafkstcan»fsnswinginflationafQ:sccmscwofl»wi»s.6ctksglo>>alsconomQ>>facscToitkslaggs>>sffsctoTckaf:intsfsctfatsincfsacsc,tksmajoi»svslo：s»comntiQcsntial>>ankckavscignalls>>tksifintsntiontokss:intsfsctiatsckigksfToiIongsf.Tks:ioc:sctcoTa:folongs»：sfio»oTkigksf>>offowingcoctcan»tigktsfcfs>>itcon>>itioncnscsntctfongksa>>win>>cToiawol>>sconomQtkaticca>>>>ls>>witkkigkIsvslcoT»s»t»mtalcoinnss»oTincfsacs>>invsctmsnt,notonlQtoIscmccitatsgfowtk»mtalcotofigktclimatsckangsan»accslsfats:fogfscctowa>>ctksSmctaina>>lsDsvslozmsntCoalc(SDCc).Mofsovsf,tigktfinancialcon>>itionc,com：ls»witkagfowingfickoTgso:oliticalTfagmsntation,:ocsincfsacingfickctoglo>>altfa>>san»in>>mctfial:fo»mction.6gaincttkic>>ack>>fo:oTIingsiingickcan»mncstaintisc,glo>>alCDPgowtkicnojscts>>toclowTfomansctimats>>n.7:sfcsntinnnton.4：sfcsntinnn4.CfowtkicTofscacttoim:fovsmo>>siatslQton.7：sicsntinnOn$»mtwillfsmain>>slowtks:fs-:an»smictsn>>gfowtkfatsoT.0:sicsnt.Wkilstkswo11>>sconomQavoi>>s>>tkswofct-cacsccsnafiooTafscsccioninnn,a:iotfacts»:siio»oTlowgfowtkIoomclafgs.Cfowtk:foc:sctcTofmanQ»svslo:ingcomntfisc,SczsciallQvmlnsfa>>lsan»low-incomscomntfisc,kavsismains>>wsak,makingaTmllIscovsfQoT:an»smicIoccscsvsimofsslmcivs.Mftkgislowkow<<i«tkgkgvgloygkgco<<omigsTkssconomQoTtksU<<itgkHtatgso26mgica-tksIafgsctintkswoil>>-:siTofms»smaika>>lQwsll>>mfingtks:actQsaf,»mtgfowtkics.：scts»to>>scslsfatsTiomansctimats>>n.$:sicsntinnnto1.4:sfcsntinnn4.Ro>>mctconcmmsfc：sn»ingontks»ackoTctfongkomcskol>>>>alancscksstcan»scilisntla>>omian»komcingmaikstccm:ofts»tks>>sttsi-tkan-s.:scts»:SrroirnanCSinnn.Dsc:itsaggisccivsmonstaiQtigktsning»QtksFs>>sfalRscsfvs,tksmnsm:loQmsntfatsctoo»atonlQ.7：sicsntintkstki>><<maitsfoTnn.Ro>>mctkomcs:iicsc»oocts»an»cmctains>>tksnstwoftkoTkomsownsfc,s.sitingactfongwsaltksffsctan»cm:：oftingkigkIsvslcoTkomcskol>>c:sn»ing.TkicmaQckangs<<micklQ/SczsciallQiTkomcingan»accst:ficsc>>fo:an»SffsctivsIQfs>>mcskomcskol>>nstwoftk.6mi»Tallingkomcskol>>cavingc,kigkintssctiatsc,an»aga>>mallQCoTtsningla>>ommakst,concmmsc:sn»ingics.:scts»towsaksninnn4an»invsctmsntic:fojscts»tofsmainclmggick.Wkilstkslikslikoo>>oTakai»lan>>ingkac»sclins»conci>>sfa>>lQ,tksUnits>>StatscsconomQwillTacsCigniflcant»ownci»s(ickcTfom>>stsiofatingla>>omf,komcingan»nancialmafkstc.E,ioygTacscaCkallsngingsconomicomtlookami»ctillslsvats>>inflationan»kigkintsfsct