世界银行-萨赫勒地区适应性社会保护系统的压力测试（英）-2023.10..docx

STRESSTESTINGADAPTIVESOCIALPROTECTIONSYSTEMSINTHESAHELByAlineCoudouel,SilviaFuselliandMiraSaidiSaheladaptiveSOCIALPROTECTIONPROGRAMABOUTTHESAHELADAPTIVESOCIALPROTECTIONTRUSTFUNDTheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP)isfundedbyamulti-donortrustfund(MDTF)withcontributionsfromtheDenmarkRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairs;theAgenceFranaisedeDdveloppement(AFD);theGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ);andtheUnitedKingdomForeign,Commonwealth,andDevelopmentOffice(FCDO).ItsobjectiveistosupportsixSahelianCountries-BurkinaFaso1Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalinbuildingASPsystemsprimarilytohelpvulnerablehouseholdsadapttotheimpactsofclimatechangebutalsotoothercovariateshocks.TheSASPPismanagedbytheSocialProtectionandJobsunitoftheWest-CentralAfricaregionaldepartmentoftheWorldBank.MHNtSTftV 0 FMEICN AFFAIR! O* DEMMARKDbankgroupThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.TABLEOFCONTENTSForeword4Acknowledgements5Authors6ExecutiveSummary7OverallAssessment10ArrangementsandPartnerships12DataandInformationSystems13ProgramsandDeliverySystems14Finance15Abbreviations161.istOfTabIes171.istOfFigures17ListofBoxes181. Introduction191 .1TheSahel:RegionattheIntersectionofOverlappingShks1912 AdaptiveSocialProtection2113 Methodology252. ProgressontheFourBuildingBlocksforASP:AMixedPicture2721 Overview2722 InstitutionalArrangementsandPartnerships:KeyFindings2823 DataandInformationSystems:KeyFindings3424 ProgramsandDeliverySystems:KeyFindings4225 Finance:KeyFindings503. ConclusionsandRecommendations56AppendixA:SocialProtectionStressTestToolanditsApplicationintheSahel62References72EndNotes75FOREWORDTheStressTestingAdaptiveSocialProtectionSystemsintheSahelreportexaminestheexistingsocialprotectionsystemsintheSahelandidentifieselementsthatneedstrengtheningtoaddresstheneedsintheregion.TheworkforthisreportbeganduringtheCOVID-19pandemic,whichtestedthecapacityoftheadaptivesocialprotectionsystemsintheSahelcountries.Theeconomicconsequencesofthepandemicwereextensive,particularlyforvulnerableandpoorhouseholdsintheSahel1andreversedyearsofpovertyreductionefforts.WhiletheSahelcountriesareshowingsignsofenomicrecoveryfromthepandemic,theycontinuetofaceamultitudeofongoingcrises,includingglobalchallenges,suchastheinflationandeconomicfalloutfromthewarinUkraine,andlocalizedshockslinkedtoinsecurityandworseningclimatetheSahelrecentlyexperiencedveryseveredroughtsandfoodinsecurity,alongsidemorefrequentandsevereflooding.Theseincreasinglychallengingcontextscallforeffectiveadaptivesialprotection(ASP)toolsandstrategies.ASPisacriticaltooltoreachtheWorldBank'sgoalofaworldfreeofpovertyonalivableplanet.Indeed,tofaceworseningclimatechange,increasinglyfrequentclimate-relatedshocks,andeconomicshocksfromanevermoreglobalizedworld,itisessentialtohavesystemsinplacethatcanbuildtheresilienceofthepoorestandmostvulnerablehouseholdsaheadofshocks,aswellasprotectthem,theirproductiveinvestments,andtheirhumancapitalfromthenegativeimpactsofshocks.Inrecentyears,theSahelcountries,withthesupportoftheWorldBankandtheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP),havebeguntoinvestinadaptivesocialprotectionsystems.Governmentshaveestablishednationalsafetynetprograms,whichofferregularsupporttosomeofthepoorestsegmentsofthepopulation.ASPsystemsweredesignedfortheseprogramstoscaleup,incoordinationwithhumanitarianpartners,torespondtoshockssuchasfoodinsecurityandpandemics.Whiletheirreachandscaleremainlimited,theirsuccessesarenottobeminimized,andsomesuccessfulelementshaveinspiredothercountriesinAfricaandbeyond.ThisreportdrawslessonsfromtheASPtrajectoryintheSahel.Itusesthestresstestmethodology,designedbytheWorldBank,toassesstheabilityofsocialprotectionsystemstorespondtoshocks.ThereportprovidesarichoverviewoftheexistingsystemsintheSahelalongthefourbuildingblocksofASP.First,itexaminestheinstitutionalarrangementsforASPandshockresponseintheregion,andexploreslinkagesacrossgovernmentagenciesandexternalpartners,whichplayanimportantroleinrespondingtoshocks.Second,itprovidesanoverviewofthedataandinformationsystemsintheSahelcountries,includingareviewoftheachievementsinbuildingsocialregistries,whichcanbeleveragedbymultipleactorsformoreefficientandeffectiveinterventions.Third,thereportfocusesonprogramsanddeliverysystemshighlightinginnovationsineachcountryalongthedeliverychain.Finally,itreviewsthelimitedprogressindevelopingASPfinancingmechanisms.Buildingontheprogressandlimitations,thereportconcludeswithasetofrecommendationsforgovernments,donors,andimplementingpartnerstofurtherinvestinASP.WewelcometheStressTestingAdaptiveSocialProtectionSystemsintheSahelreportasanimportantmilestoneinthedevelopmentofASPsystemsintheregionandbeyond.OusmaneDiagana,RegionalVicePresidentforWesternandCentralAfrica,WorldBankACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThisStressTestingAdaptiveSocialProtectionSystemsintheSahelReportbuildsonsustaineddialoguewiththegovernmentsofBurkinaFaso,Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalonthedevelopmentofnationalAdaptiveSocialProtectionsystems.TheauthorsaregratefultotheparticipantsintheworkshopsorganizedinthesixcountriesbetweenOctober2021andSeptember2022toapplytheSocialProtectionStressTestTool.TheauthorswishtoextendparticularthankstothegovernmentofficialsinallsixcountriesandcolleaguesfromtheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP)teamsinBurkinaFaso,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalandtheUnitedNationsChildren'sFund(UNICEF)teamsinBurkinaFaso1Mali,andNiger.TheauthorsaremostgratefultoEdwardArchibaldforhisroleindistillingtheinsightsfromthesixnationalreports.Hemasterfullyidentifiedthereport'skeyfindingsfromtheregion'sexperiencetodateandhelpedtoshapethereport'srecommendationsforgovernments,donorsandimplementingpartners.TheauthorsarealsothankfultocolleaguesintheWorldBankfortheircontributionstothereport,includingLuisAlberroEncinas,MoukenetAzoukalne,ChristianBodewig,StephanieBrunelin,GeoffreyBaeumlin,SilviaConi,DieynabaDiallo,SebastianGeschwind,RebekkaE.Grun,AnneHilger1DjieSita,DianeAntoinetteKiemdeTraore,JulianKoschorke5MatthieuLefebvre,FelixLung,MahamaneMalikiAmadou,FranckMuller1CelineMbaipeurNenodji1SnjezanaPlevko,ChristopheRockmore,MahamaneMourtalaSani1SamantaSarriaCapape1DameSeekThiam,KalilouSylla,andClaudiaZambraTaibo.TheauthorsarealsogratefultoCorinnaKreidlerforreviewingthedraftandprovidingdetailedguidance.ThestudywaseditedbySarahPatellaandtypesetbyRodolpheMuller.ThisstudywascarriedoutundertheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP),andtheauthorsaregratefultotheSASPPdonorstheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ)1theAgenceFranpaisedeDdveloppement(FrenchDevelopmentAgency,AFD),theDenmarkRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairs(DANIDA),theUnitedKingdomForeign,CommonwealthandDevelopmentOffice(FCDO)andtoBoutheinaGuermaziandMohammedDalilEssakalioftheWorldBankAfricaRegionalIntegrationUnit,whichguidestheSASPP.AUTHORSAlineCoudouelisaLeadEconomistintheWestandCentralAfricaUnitoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.ShecurrentlyworksastheManageroftheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP).Hertechnicalandoperationalexpertisecoversthedifferentpillarsofsocialprotection-socialassistance,socialinsurance,andlabormarketsaswellashumandevelopment,gender,andpovertyreductionmorebroadly.Herexperiencespansmultipleregions,withaparticularfocusonLatinAmerica(Colombia,DominicanRepublic,Mexico,Nicaragua,andPanama),Africa(Guinea,Malawi,Mauritania,Senegal,andtheSahelregion),SouthAsia(BangladeshandNepal),andEuropeandCentralAsia(Uzbekistan).Earlierinhercareer,AlineworkedattheUNICEFInnocentiResearchCenter,withafocusonwomenandchildreninCentralAsiaandEurope.AlineholdsaPhDineconomicsfromtheEuropeanUniversityInstituteinFlorence,Italy.SilviaFuselliisanExtendedTermConsultantintheWestandCentralAfricaUnitoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.Shehasextensiveexperienceonadaptationstothedesign,delivery,andimplementationofsocialsafetynetsincontextsoffragility,conflict,andviolence(FCV).HeroperationalexperienceextendstovariouscountriesintheCentralAfricanandSahelregion,particularlytheCentralAfricanRepublic,Senegal,andSomalia.Earlierinhercareer,SilviaworkedatanongovernmentalorganizationthatisdedicatedtoexpandingaccesstoeducationforSyrianrefugeesinLebanon.SilviaisaPh.D.CandidateattheJohnsHopkinsUniversitySchoolofAdvancedInternationalStudies(SAIS).SheholdsanM.A.inInternationalRelationsandEnomicsfromSAISandanM.A.inInternationalRelationsandDiplomacyfromtheUniversityofBologna,Italy.MiraSaidiisaSocialProtectionSpecialistintheWestandCentralAfricaUnitoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.ShehasworkedextensivelyonissuesrelatedtothedesignandimplementationofAdaptiveSocialProtectionsystemsandprograms.HeroperationalexperienceextendsacrosstheSahelandWestAfrica.MiraalsoleadsworkonsocialprotectioninthecontextofFCVcountriesandcontributedtothedevelopmentoftheAdaptiveSocialProtectionStressTestTool.Earlierinhercareer,MiraworkedacrosstheMiddleEastonissuespertainingtosafetynetsandjobs.MiraholdsanMScinDevelopmentStudiesfromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandanMPPfromtheHarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment.EXECUTIVESUMMARYTheSahelregionofAfricafacesmultiplecrises,whichfurthercompoundstructuraleconomicandhumandevelopmentchallenges.TheSahelisoneoftheworld'spoorestregionsanddisplayssomeofthelowestlevelsofhumancapitalglobally.ViolenceandinsecurityintheSahelhavesignificantlyincreasedinthepastdecade,withseveralcountriesexperiencingactivearmedconflictandunrest.Theimpactsofclimatechangecompoundexistingvulnerabilitiesandrisks.Duetoitshighexposureandlowcopingcapacity,theSahelisamongtheworld'smostvulnerableregionstoclimatechangeandhazards,suchasdrought,floods,heatwaves,andcroppests.Finally,theexternalshocksoftheCOVID-19pandemicandthewarinUkrainehaveimpactedtheSahel,erodingpurchasingpowerandaggravatingpoverty.Thesemultiplecriseshaveresultedinasignificantdeteriorationoffoodandnutritionsecurityintheregion,andmorethan13millionpeoplewereestimatedtohavefacedseverefoodinsecurityduringthe2022leanseasononeoftheworstcrisesinthelastdecade.AdaptiveSocialProtection(ASP)playsacriticalroleinpreventingormitigatingthenegativeimpactsofshocksandboostingresilienceforlong-termdevelopment.ASPhasemergedasaflexibleanddynamicapproachtosocialprotectionduringthepastdecade.Itcombinesandexploitssynergiesbetweensocialprotection,disasterriskmanagement(DRM)1andclimatechangeadaptation.Thisenablessocialprotectiontobeleveragedasaneffectivetooltoreducehouseholdvulnerabilitytocovariateshocks,suchaseconomicdownturns,naturaldisasters,conflictandviolence,forceddisplacement,andhealthemergencies,includingtherecentCOVID-19pandemic.Byprovidingtailored,targeted,andtimelysupportduring,orintheaftermathofacrisis,ASPenablespoorandvulnerablehouseholdstomeettheirbasicneedsintheshortterm,whilestrengtheningtheirresilienceinthemediumandlongertermbyreducingnegativecopingstrategies(suchasloweringfdconsumption,sellingproductiveassets,ortakingchildrenoutofschl,andbyprotectingtheirhumancapitalandlivelihoods).ASPalsopromoteslivelihoods,byincreasingprcjctivityandpromotingdiversification,whicharecentraltoresiliencetofutureshocksandsustainedpovertyreduction.ASPcomprisesasuiteofinterventionsthatcanbe*flexed,andlayeredbefore,during,andafterashockstrikes.ASPinterventionsincludebutarenotlimitedtocashtransferprograms,publicworksandcash-for-workprograms,livelihoodsupportprograms,andproductiveandeconomicinclusionprograms.Theseprogramsaredesignedtoprovidepoorandvulnerablehouseholdswithtargetedanddirectsupportandaccesstosocioeconomicopportunitiestoofferawayoutofpoverty.Indoingso,theyalsoprotectindividualwell-beingandhumancapitalaccumulationfromthenegativeandlong-lastingimpactsofshocks.Duringtimesofneed,differentapproachescanbeadoptedtoensurethatpoorandvulnerableshock-affectedhouseholdsareeffectivelyreached.Forexample,smalladjustmentscanbemadetoroutinesocialprotectionprogramstoensurethecontinuityofassistanceduringtimesofshocks;verticalexpansionscanbeimplemented,totemporarilyincreasethebenefitvalueordurationofanexistingprogramforsomeorallcurrentbeneficiaries(fiureOl);andhorizontalexpansionscanbedesigned,totemporarilyexpandcoveragetonewhouseholdsaffectedbyashock(eitherneworexistingprograms).FIGURE0.1:SocialSafetyNetPrograms,VerticalandHorizontalExpansionBENEFITAMOUNTtheadaptivenessandscalabilityofsocialprotectionsystemsinresponsetoshks,andtoidentifypriorityareasforimprovement(BoxO.1,fiQireBO.1.1,andfigureBO1.2).Thisreportseekstocapturethedevelopmentsthattookplacesincethetestwasapplied,thoughsomeofthesemaynotbefullyreflectedinthisreport.Vertical1,t.)Source:Bowenetal.2020TheSahesvulnerabilityandexposuretoshocksandcrisesissettoincreasewithacceleratingclimatechange,callingforashiftfromoftenexternallyfunded,adhocresponsestowardbuildingsustainable,government-ledsystems.Inthepast,theresponsetoshocksandcrisespredominantlyreliedonahumanitarianapproachandwithyear-to-yearadhocprograms.Forexample,foodinsecurityresultingfromtheannualleanseasonwaslargelyaddressedthroughexternallyfundedhumanitarianaid.Whilehumanitarianaidcontinuestoplayanimportantroleinnavigatingfoodsecurityshocks,countriesintheSahelareincreasinglyputtingforwardgovernment-ledASPinterventionsandarebeginningtoinvestinsystems.AlthoughASPhasbeenshowntobeaneffectivetoolinrespondingtotheregion'scompoundingchallenges,leveragingitsfullpotentialrequiresgovernment-lednationalsystemsthatcanoperateatscalewithasuiteofnationalprogramsatscale,matureinformationsystems,readilybudgetedandpre-positionedfinance,andclearinstitutionalarrangements.TheprincipleofasystemsapproachpermeatesthefourpillarsoftheASPframework,andthelatent-advancedframeworkoftheSocialProtectionStressTestToolisframedaroundagradualstrengtheningofnationalsystems.Overthepastdecade,ASPhasbeenonaremarkabletrajectoryintheSahel,andthisisanappropriatetimetotakestockofthesituation.ThisreportprovidesanoverviewofthestateofASPacrosssixSaheliancountries-BurkinaFaso,Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalaswellasasetofrecommendationsforactionstostrengthentheadaptivenessandresponsivenessofexistingsystemstoshocks.This