麦肯锡-建筑通告：最大限度地减少二氧化碳排放和创造商业机会（英）.docx

In collaboration with McKinsey & CompanyW7ORLD ECONOMIC FQRUMCircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2AbatementandBusinessOpportunitiesWHITEPAPER.DECEMBER2023Images:GettyImages,UnsplashContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51 Transformingtheresourceloopsinthebuiltenvironment61.1 Resourcerecirculation81.2 Resourceefficiencies91.3 Resourceutilization92 Buildingwithcircularmaterials102.1 Concreteandcement132.2 Constructionsteel152.3 Constructionaluminium172.4 Constructionplastics192.5 Flatglass212.6 Gypsum23Conclusion:Drivingthecircularitytransitioninthebuiltenvironment25Appendix:Modellingassumptionsandresultscalculation26Contributors27Endnotes28DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandndusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollat>orativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2023WorldEnomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.December 2023CircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2AbatementandBusinessOpportunitiesForewordFernando GomezHead, Resource Systems and Resilience - Centre for Nature and Climate, Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic ForumJukkaMaksimainenSeniorPartner,McKinsey&CompanySebastianReiterPartner,McKinsey&CompanyJorgenSandstromHead,TransformingIndustrialEsystems-CentreforEnergyandMaterials,WorldEnomicForumAmultitudeofcomplexglobalchallenges,includinghealthcrises,geopoliticalconflictsandeconomicdifficulties,haveinspiredthenarrativethattheworldhasentereda"newnorma,whereorganizationsmustdealwithcrisesandfocusonresiliencebydefault.Throughoutthisshiftingnormality,whathasnotchangedistheurgentneedtotackleoneofthemostprevalentissuesofthecentury:combatingclimatechangeanditsprofoundimpactontheworld.Thebuiltenvironmentholdsimmensepotentialforpositivechange.Buildingsandconstructionaountforabout26%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions,primarilyduetotheirsubstantialconsumptionofenergyandmaterials.However,thereisanopportunitytotransitionfromcurrentconsumptionandproductionpatternstoamoresustainablecircularapproach.Byreimaginingdesignprocesses,embracingcutting-edgetechnologiesandexploringinnovativebusinessmodels,industryplayerscanunlkgreatervaluefromexistingassets,conservecrucialresourcesandreducewaste.Theurgencyofmakingthisshifttowardsgreatercircularitycannotbeoverstated;eachpassingdaywithoutactionexacerbatesthechallengeshumanityfaces.ThiswhitepaperbytheWorldEnomicForum'sCentreforNatureandClimateandtheCentreforEnergyandMaterials,incollaborationwithMcKinsey,embarksonamprehensiveexplorationofcircularity'spotentialtorevolutionizethebuiltenvironmentandcreateasustainableandresilientfuture.Throughcarefulanalysisofvaluepoolsandabatementpotential,ourresearchservesasacalltoaction,revealingbothenvironmentalgainsandsignificanteconomicrewards.Here,weshareapathtowardsamoresustainableindustrythatcanabateCO2emissionswhileunlockingeconomicvalue.Astheindustrybeginsthistransformativejourneytowardsacircularbuiltenvironment,itiscrucialtorecognizethepivotalroleoflighthouses,whichofferbreakthroughcircularitysolutionsthatdemonstrateenvironmentalimpact,scalabilityandfinancialviability.Thesepioneersbringtogetherindustryleaderstoactivelydriveandacceleratethetransitiontowardscircularity,servingasbeaconsofinspirationandshowcasingproactiveadoptionofcircularpractices.Byembracingcircularity,theynotonlysafeguardtheplanetbutalsounlocksustainableprosperity.WethankallcommunitymembersandForuminitiativeleadersfortheirdedicationandinvaluableinputtowardsthisreport.Wetrustitwilloffervaluableguidanceandperspectivestoleadersinboththepublicandprivatesectorsaswecollaborativelychartthecourseforthebuiltenvironment'sfuture.ExecutivesummaryCircularitycouldabate75%ofembodiedemissionsfromthebuiltenvironmentwhilecreatingsignificanteconomicvalue.Thiswhitepaperquantifiesthepotentialforcarbondioxide(CO2)abatementandpotentialnetvaluegainacrossninecircularityloopsforsixkeybuildingmaterials:cementandconcrete,steel,aluminium,plastics,glassandgypsum.Thecircularityloopsareassessedthroughthreedimensions:recirculationofmaterialsandminerals,renewableandrecoveredenergyandreducingemissionsthroughcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)andcarboncaptureandutilization(CCU).Theresultsshowthatcircularloopsldabate0.5to0.8gigatonnesofCO2(GtCO2)in2030andbetween3.4and4.0GtCO2in2050.Thisaccountsfor13%ofthebuiltenvironment'sembodiedcarbonemissionsin2030butapproaches75%in2050.In2030,recirculationofmaterialsandmineralsandCCS/CCUareeachexpectedtocontributearound40%oftotalabatement,withCCS/CCUincreasingitscontributiontomorethan50%by2050.Circularitymorebroadlyalsopresentssubstantialeconomicadvantages,withthepotentialtoyieldanannualnetprofitgainof$31-46billionby2030and$234-360billionby2050.Therecirculationofmaterialsandmineralsmakesupthegreatmajorityofpotentialnetvaluegainbothfor2030and2050.Eachbuildingmaterialinvestigatedcanbemademorecircularthroughspecificstrategies:1. Concreteandcement:Concreteandcementcontribute30%ofbuildingmaterials-relatedCO2emissions.Circularstrategiessuchasmineralizationtechnologiesandsmartcrushedaggregatesoffersubstantialvaluegains,aswellasthepotentialtoabate96%ofembodiedCO2emissionsfromcementby2050.2. Constructionsteel:Steelisalreadyhighlyrecyclable,andthetransitiontoelectricarcfurnace(EAF)steelproductionandincreasedscrapcollectionholdpromise.Thesemeasurescanavoidupto60%oftotalCO2emissionsfromsteelby2050.3. Constructionaluminium:Opportunitiesforcircularitylieindesigningforreuse,increasingrecycledmaterialuseandadoptingalternativefuels.Thesemeasurescanleadtoareductioninaluminium-relatedCO2emissionsofupto89%by2050.4. Constructionplastics:Introducingcircularitylevers,suchasdesigningforreuseandmodularity,increasingregrindplastics,andusingalternativefuels,candecreaseCO2emissionsfromplasticsbyupto62%by2050.5. Flatglass:Practicessuchasdesigningforreuseandmodularityandincreasingculletusecanabateupto41%ofCO2emissionsfromglassby2050.6. Gypsumwallboards:Recycling,downcyclingandusingrenewableenergyintheproductionprocesscanyieldsignificantvaluegainsandCO2emissionabatementfromgypsumofupto31%by2050.Inthistransformativejourney,lighthouseswillplayapivotalrole.Lighthousescatalysecollaboration,advancecircularthinkinganddisseminatedigitaltechnologies.Theirindustry-leadingsolutionsinthebuiltenvironmentareactivelypropellingtheshifttowardscircularityandsettingtheexampleforothers.Thebuiltenvironmentmusttakeaction,inpartbyrecognizingandhighlightingtheseleadinglighthousestothewiderecosystem.IntroductionAcircularbuiltenvironmentrespondstoanurgentneedandcreateswide-rangingopportunityforindustryplayers.Thebuiltenvironmentisacrucialcomponentofdailylife,providingessentialservicesthatimpacteveryaspectofexistence,fromhousingtotransport.Infact,90%ofindividuals'timeisspentinsidebuildings,infrastructureandurbanecosystems.'Thisesystemaccountsfor13%oftheworld'sgrossdomesticprcduct(GDP)andemploys7%oftheworking-agepopulation.2Atthesametime,thebuiltenvironmentisasignificantcontributortothetransgressionofplanetaryboundaries,thresholdsforkeyenvironmentalindicatorssuchasclimatechangeandlandsystemchange.Thebuiltenvironmentntributesone-thirdofmaterialconsumptionandwastegeneration3andapproximately37%offuel-relatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsfromhumans.4Aroundone-thirdofemissionsfromnewbuildingscomefromembodiedsources,meaningfrommaterialproductionandnstrction,andtwo-thirdsfromoperationalsources.5Asthepopulationgrowsandurbanizationaccelerates,30billionsquaremetresofnewbuildingswillneedtobeconstructedinthenext40years,6equivalenttoaddingabuildingthesizeofNewYorkCityevery40days.Mostofthisgrowthwilloccurinresidentialnstructioninemergingmarkets,includingAfrica,theMiddleEastandEastandSouthAsia.7Overall,75%oftheinfrastructureneededby2050stillneedstobebuilt.8Thus,creatingasustainableandresilientbuiltenvironmentiscrucialforpeople'swell-beingandtostaywithinsafeplanetarylimits.Transitioningfromalineartoacircularenomyaimstodecoupleeconomicgrowthfromenvironmentaldepletion.Inacircularecosystem,virgin-resourceinputsandend-of-lifewasteareminimized,andvalueiseatedwithoutexhaustinglimitedresources.Acrossallindustries,newsourcesofeconomicgrowthareestimatedat$4.5trillioninadditionalglobaleconomicoutputby2030.9Simultaneously,circularleverscontributesignificantlytoreducingCO2emissions.ThiswhitepapershowcasesthepotentialforcircularityinthebuiltenvironmenttosimultaneouslycreatebusinessvalueandreduceCO2emissions.Whilethisindustryhassignificantenvironmentalimpactsacrossvariousdimensionssuchaspollution,landusechangeorbiodiversityloss,thiswhitepaperspecificallyaddressesthepotentialforemissionsabatementtoensureathoroughquantitativeandqualitativeanalysis.Theoverallpurposeisthreefold:first,toillustratehowcircularitycanntributetothedecarbonizationofthesector;second,toquantifyboththeabatementpotentialandbusinessvaluepoolsacrosskeymaterials;third,todescribewhatisneededtocapturethispotential.Thiswhitepaperisalsoacalltoactiontoidentifylighthousesforcircularityinthebuiltenvironmentasamethodtodemonstrateenvironmentalimpact,financialviabilityandscalability.Thequantificationofvaluepoolsandabatementpotentialisperformedacrossninecircularityloopsforsixbuildingmaterials,whichlargelycontributetothebuiltenvironment'sresourceconsumptionandcarbonemissions:cementandncrete,steel,aluminium,plastics,glassandgypsum.Thecircularityloopsareincorporatedintoaframeworkexploringcircularityacrossthreelevers:resourcerecirculation,resourceefficiencyandresourceutilization,andconsideringtheimpactdimensionsofmaterialsandminerals,renewableandreveredenergyandreducingemissionsthroughcarboncapture.Theimpactshavebeenquantifiedthroughagranularmodellingapproach,exploringglobalmaterialflowsandtheimplementationofcircularloopsattherespectivebuildingmateriallevelandacrossdifferentstagesofthebuildingandconstructionvaluechain.Withinthiswhitepaper,uthebuiltenvironmentecosystem"referstorealestateandinfrastructure.Ittouchesallaspectsofhumanlife,fromhomesandofficestofactoriesandhighways.Itsvaluechainencompassesavarietyofstakeholders,rangingfromdevelopersandinvestorstowastehandlingcompanies.CTransformingtheresourceloopsinthebuiltenvironmentTruecircularitycapturesnewpotentialvalueacrossavarietyofflowsandresources.Transitioningfromlineartocircularsystemsrevealsnewopportunitiestocreatevalue,drivenbystimprovementsthroughefficientresourceuseandnewbusinessmodels.Acircularbuiltenvironmentemploysresourcelps,theflowofresourcesthroughoutthevaluechain,acrossthreekeydimensions:resourcerecirculation,resourceefficiency,andresourceutilization.Theaimistomaximizetherecirculationofresourcesattheirhighestvaluetoeliminatewaste,increaseefficiencyandreducetheneedfornewbuildings.Variouscircularityloopsenablethosethreedimensions(seeFigure1).Increasedmaterialrecirculationcomprisesthereuseorremanufacturingofbuildingcomponentsorhigh-valuerecyclingofmaterialinthesameoradjacentvaluechains.Toenhanceresourceefficiency,wasteiseliminatedbyvalorizingitasasecondaryrawmaterial,aswellasbyoptimizingresourceconsumptiontomanufactureabuildingmaterialorreduceproductuseperbuilding.Toprolongaresource,susefullifeandmaximizeitsuse,spacesandexistingbuildingscanbeshared,reusedorevenrepurposed,renovatedorrefurbishedtoextendtheirlifespan.FIGURE1NinecircularityloopsacrossthreedimensionsinthebuiltenvironmentIncreaseuseofbuildingandinfrastructureRepairandextendingbuildinglifetimeSource:McKinseySustainabilityPractice,EllenMacArthurFoundation.Materialsandminerals.Energy.CX)2Reduceandsubstituteuseofvirginmaterial4ReCyCIesecondaryrawmaterialsiJfromotherindustriesRecyclepre-consumersendaryrawmaterialfrommaterialmanufacturingprocessesRemanufacturemodulesormponentsReuseorrepurposewholemodulesandcomponentsRecycletootherbuilding，hcomponentsorothervaluechains(downcycle)<Recyclepost-consumersecondaryrawmaterialCircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2AbatementandBusinessOpportunities71.1ResourcerecirculationAcrossconstructionmaterials,therearemanyoptionstouserecycledconstructionanddemolitionwaste(CDW)asasubstituteforvirginrawmaterialsduringproduction.CrushedCDWcanalsobedirectlyreusedinconstruction,eitherascrushedncreteforroadconstructionorasarawmaterialinOthervaluechains,suchaslower-qualityglassculletintheproductionofcontainerglassandfibreglass.Figure2displaysanoverviewofpotentialnetvaluegainandCO2emissionsavingsalongthethreedifferentdimensionsby2030and2050.Overall,theannualnetvalueimpactofrecirculatingmaterialsandmineralsisestimatedat$31-48billionand$184-310billionby2030and2050.Thenetimpactofreusingandremanufacturingisestimatedat$6-13billionand$45-96billion(2030,2050),whereasthatofrecyclingmaterialsandminerals(includingdowncycling)isestimatedatahighervalueof$25-35billionand$138-214billion,respectively,in2030and2050.Theabatementpotentialfortheseleversamountsto0.02-0.04and0.1-0.2gigatonnesofCO2(GtCO2)forreuseandremanufacturingandapproximately0.2and1-1.3GtCO2forrecycling,in2030and2050,respectively.Energyfromrecirculatedresourcescomprisestheuseofalternativefuelsfromwastematerialsandbiomass.Thisleverisregionallydependentandmainlyimportantinareaswithhighavailabilityofwastematerialandbiomasssupply,suchasheatedanddriedsugar,energycaneorpyrolysedeucalyptus.Thislevercouldunlockavaluepoolof$6-7billionby2030andapproximately$43billionby2050whileenablingtheabatementofapproximately0.1-0.2GtCO2by2030and0.4GtCO2by2050.TherecirculationofCO2fromtheprocessingandproductionofconstructionmaterialspertainstocapturingCO2emissionsandreintroducingthembackintothevaluechainwithcarboncaptureandutilization(CCU)1includingcarboncuringandenhancedre-carbonation,mineralizationandnaturalre-cartx)ation.Itcanalsorefertoremovingemissionsfromthevaluechainaltogetherviacarboncaptureandstorage(CCS).CO2-offtaketechnologieswilllikelybeimplementedfirstinregionswithrapidgrowthincarbonpricingmechanisms,suchasEuropeorNorthAmericaandwithinCCUhubs,wherehigh-emittingindustriessuchassteelandcementareclustered.RemovingemissionswithCCSorrecyclingemissionswithCCUwouldabatearound1.9-2.1GtCO2in2050whilealsogenerating$7billionintermsofvaluegain.By2030,thesewouldhavealreadycontributedtotheabatementof0.2-0.3GtCO2.However,duetotheinitialinvestmentandupfrontcosts,aninitiallossof$6-9billionwouldbeincurredin2030.FIGURE2Netvaluegainandcarbonabatementpotentialofcircularleversfortherecirculationofmaterialsandminerals,energyandembodiedemission(CO2)(2030,2050)Netcarbonabatementpotential,inGtCO2Netvaluegain,in$billionsRecirculat