麦肯锡-洛杉矶实现包容性经济增长的机会（英）.docx

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Ib一Rewritingthescript:与LAsopportunitytobuiafaster-growing,more翳E«inclusiveeconomy1.ACountyisaglobalculturalcapital,withthelargesteconomyintheUnitedStates.Yetboldactionmaybeneededtodriveinclusivegrowthinthenextdecade.ByAshwinAdarkar,TolianGjikazJonathanLaw,TiniWard,LolaWoetzel,andYenliWong.Copyright©2023McKinsey&Company.Allrightsreserved.Thispublicationisnotintendedtobeusedasthebasisfortradinginthesharesofanycompanyorforundertakinganyothercomplexorsignificantfinancialtransactionwithoutconsultingappropriateprofessionaladvisers.NopartofthispublicationmaybecopiedorredistributedinanyformwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofMcKinsey&Company.Rewritingthescript:LA,sopportunitytobuildafaster-growing,moreinclusiveeconomyContentsIntroduction1Challenge1：Thebusinessenvironmentindustryshiftsandthedifficultyofdoingbusiness3inLAChallenge2:Talentsupplygapsandevolvingskillsneeds10Challenge3：Accesstoaffordablehousing,convenienttransportation,andhigh-speed16broadband1.A,Sblockbustersequel：Aneweraofeconomicgrowthforallbypromotinginnovation,20enablingtheregion,sconsiderabletalent,andimprovingaffordabilityAcalltoaction27LosAngelesCountyhasthelargesteconomyintheUnitedStatesoneofthelargestintheworld,infactandoverthepastthreedecadesdemonstratedstrongproductivitygrowthrelativetotherestofthecountry(Exhibit1)?Itishometodiverse,talentedAngelenos,fast-growingindustrieswithstrongspecialization,andimaginationandcreativitythatfuelsinnovationacrossitseconomy.Withthiscombinationof“uniquelyLA“assets,thecountyhasanabundanceofopportunitiestoshowcaseitspotentialforaccelerated,inclusiveeconomicgrowth(seeSidebar,“Methodology'').Yet,despitethesestrengths,LAhasnotmatcheditspeercounties,northeUnitedStates,inothergrowthareasGDPgrowth,employmentgrowth,andpopulationgrowth(ExhibitI).GDP (current US $), World Bank, May 2023; Gross domestic product by county, 202lr United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 8, 2022.See sidebar: 4zMethodoIogy/Toputthemagnitudeofslowereconomicgrowthintoperspective,zoominginonemploymentgrowth:ouranalysisshowsthatifLACountyhadmatcheditspeers,averageemploymentgrowthrateinthedecadefollowingtheGreatRecession,325,000moreAngelenoswouldbeemployedtoday.Quarterly census of employment and wages. United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2023; McKinsey analysis, taking shifting industry dynamics into account.Exhibit11.osAngelesCountyhasoutperformedtheUnitedStatesinproductivitygrowthbutgrowthhasbeenslowerinotherkeyeconomicmeasures.Productivity,GDPperemployee,$thousandCAGR1981-2022,%Employmentgrowth,CAGR1981-relativeto1981,%2022z%319812022Source： Moods Analytics； US Bureau of Economic Analysis； US Census Bureau; McKinsey analysisCAGR 1981-2022,%Populationgrowth,relativeto1981,%32502WhileLAisamulticulturalhubatleast130countriesoforiginarerepresentedinLACounty,sPopuIationJoanne Kim and Tracy Hadden Loh, "What the recovery from the Great Recession reveals about post-pandemic work and cities," Brookings Institution, March 2,2021."Country of birth of foreign-bom population Los Angeles County: Census estimates, 2021, 2020 and 2010/ Los Angeles Almanac, accessed May 2023.-LAresidentsexperiencedifferenteconomicoutcomesandqualityoflifeacrossdemographicgroups.Forinstance.LatinoandBlackAngelenoshaveanaveragehouseholdincomeof$65,000and$54,000,respectively,comparedto$97,000forWhiteAngelenosand$89,000forAsianAngelenos?BlackandLatinoAngelenosalsoexperiencehigherpovertyrates,lowerlevelsofeducationalattainment,andahigherpercentageoftheirpopulationunabletoearnalivingwageincomparisontotheirAsianandWhitepeers."Median income,- 2017-2021 American Community Survey Syear estimates, United States Census Bureau, June 2023.The living wage of $75K per household is based on MIT's IiVi阳 wage calculator and represents the average living wage across household type distributions in LA: "Living wage calculator," Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 2023. American Community Survey, United States Census Bureau, June 2023; McKInsey analysis.Withoutequitableaccesstoopportunityandwell-payingjobs,thesegapsmaypersistintothefutureanddiluteLA,seconomicpotential.The case for inclusive growth, McKinsey, April 23, 2021.ToaccelerateandenablebroaderzmoreinclusivegrowthinLA,wesoughttounderstandopportunitiesandchallengesanddevelopsolutionsacrossseveraleconomicsectors,spanningthreekeyareas:thebusinessenvironmenttalent,andinfrastructure.Eachoftheseareascouldbecriticaltoassuringsustainable,inclusivegrowth,andeachcanhavematerialopportunityforLA.ThisreportaimstoprovideacommonfactbaseandthoughtstartersthatinspireLA,sstakeholdersacrosspublic,private,andsocialspherestowrite,produce,andreleaseablockbusteronhowtotransformLA,seconomyintoonethatworksbetterforeveryone.MethodologyTheauthors*decisiontobasethisreportonLosAngelesCounty,ratherthantheLosAngeles-LongBeach-AnaheimMetropolitanStatisticalArea(MSA),isbasedontwoprimaryfactors:1.ACountyhasclearboundariesandgovernance,whereastheMSAencompasses,forexample,separatecountygoverningbodies.1.ACount/sgrowthmorecloselymirrorsthenationaltrendsofurbancores(eithershrinkingorstrugglingtokeeppacewiththeirlargermetroregion,sgrowth),whereasLAMSAisgrowingmorequickly.11.ACount/speerswereselectedbasedonkeyfactorsincludingpopulationsize,geographiccharacteristics,andeconomicoutput.Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,LA,speersinclude:CookCounty,IL;DallasCounty,TX;DistrictofColumbia;FultonCounty,GA;HarrisCounty,TX;Miami-DadeCounty,FL;NewYorkCity(BronxCounty,KingsCounty,NewYorkCounty,QueensCounty,andRichmondCounty,NY);SanDiegoCounty,CA;SanFranciscoCounty,CA;SantaClaraCounty,CA;andSuffolkCounty,MA.Forcertainanalyses,wherecounty-leveldatawasnotavailable,theMSAorLAcityisusedasaproxyandindicatedaccordingly.Thefulllistofpeerswasusedwhendatawasavailable.HQumQQP然裁'Challenge1:ThebusinessenvironmentindustryshiftsandthedifficultyofdoingbusinessinLAInthebusinessenvironment,ouranalysisindicatestwoareasthatmayintroducechallengestoLA,seconomicgrowth.First,LAhasseenagrowingconcentrationofjobsinanarrowersetofindustries.However,thisshifthasnotdeliveredthesamepaceofemploymentgrowthastherestoftheUnitedStates.Second,thecostandeaseofdoingbusinessinLAremainhighcomparedtopeers,potentiallymakingitdifficultforbothsmallandlargebusinessestogrowandthrive.Industryshifts,withgrowingjobconcentrationinhealthcare,tourismandhospitality,andeducationindustriesFormuchofthe20thcentury,LA,seconomygrewrapidly,acceleratinginthe1920sand1930s;thecityofLosAngelesroughlydoubledinsizeduringthatdecade.8Threefactorssupportedthisgrowth:oilwasdiscoveredinLAintheearly1920s,propellingCaliforniaintopositionasthetopoil-producingstateintheUnitedStates;LA,spicturesque,naturalsceneryandclementweatherhelpedplaceHollywoodattheepicenterofmoviemakingthefourth-largestindustryintheUnitedStatesby1937;andmanufacturingthrived,withtirecompanies,steelmakers,andautomobileplantssettingupshopintheLABasin.9Bythe1970s,someoftheseindustriesbegantolosemomentum.TheautomobileindustrystartedtoleaveLAasimportsincreased,withlargercompaniesclosingtheirLAfactoriesbythe1990s.10Theslowingdownoftheaerospacemanufacturingindustry,whichoncehadamajorhubinSouthernCalifornia,coincidedwiththeendoftheColdWarandrelatedmanufacturingdemand.11Employmentinmanufacturingwanedintothe2010s,alongsidetrendsinincreasedoffshoringandautomationparticularlyinthemanufactureofnon-durablegoods. Christine Cooper, Somjita Mitra, and Shannon M. Sedgwick, California's manufacturing industries： Employment and competitiveness in the 21st century, Institute for Applied Economics, Los Ar½eles County Economic Development Corporation, June 2014.Between1990and2022,manufacturingshiftedfrombeingthelargestsectorbyemploymentinLAtoseventhlargest.1, Quarterly census of employment and wages. United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2023; McKinsey analysts.Duringthatperiod,thenumberofpeopleemployedinthemanufacturingsectorhalved,whichtranslatedintoapproximately160z000fewermanufacturingjobsby2022.Bycomparison,manufacturingintheUnitedStateswas,onaggregate,thesecondlargestemployerin1990,andthefourthlargestby2022,witha7percentdecreaseinemployment.Similarly,LA,soilindustryhasdwindledsinceitsearly20th-centurypeaktoday,oilandgasminingcompriseonly0.03percentoftotalemploymentinLA. Ibid.8RobertCherny,RichardGriswolddelCastillozandGretchenLemke-Santangeloz"Californiabetweenthewars,1919-1941,0CompetingVisions：AHistoryofCalifornia,secondedition,California:SaintMaryZSCollegeofCaliforniaBookGallery1,2021.,Ibid.,0"LosAngelesrautomanufacturingpast,"LosAngelesAlmanac,accessedMay2023.11RobertCherny,RichardGriswolddelCastillo,andGretchenLemke-Santangelo1Californiainourtimes/CompetingVisions:AHistoryOfCaIifornia,secondedition,California:SaintMary'sCollegeofCaliforniaBookGallery1,2021.Atthesametime,LA,sserviceseconomycontinuedtogrow.Thehealthcare,andtourismandhospitalitysectorsmorethandoubledtobecomeLA'slargestsectorsbyemploymentin2022,followedbyeducation,andadministrationandsupport.15In1990,sixsectorsmanufacturing,healthcare,tourismandhospitality,education,wholesale,andcreativemadeup40percentofemployment.By2022,onlythreesectorsaccountedforthisproportion:healthcare,tourismandhospitality,andeducation(Exhibit2).Notably,thisjobconsolidationdidnotleadtostrongeremploymentgrowth:ifeachofLAzstopsixsectorsin1990hadgrownatthesamerateastherestoftheUnitedStates,thesesectorscombinedwouldhaveemployed10percentmorepeoplein2022.16Exhibit21.osAngelesCountyhasseenagrowingconcentrationofjobsinanarrowersetofindustries.Employmentin1990zthousandCAGRNote: Sectors have been defined by mapping of NAlCS 6digit des to sector definition. Source: US Bureau of Labor StatisticsThehealthcaresectorisdefinedastheecosystemaroundtheprimaryactivitiesinvolvedinpromoting,restoring,ormaintainir½health(forexample,healthcareprovidersandplans).Quarterlycensusofemploymentandwages,UnitedStatesBureauofLaborStatistics,June2023;McKinseyanalysis.Ibid.Today,basedonMcKinseyzSanalysisofcurrentindustrysize,historicemploymentshare,projectedindustrynationalgrowthrates,andlevelofspecialization,sevensectorsstandoutaspotentialgrowthareasforLAthecreativeeconomy,healthcare,transportationandwarehousing,professionalservices,logistics,bioscience,andaerospace." LA,s creative economy includes the traditional creative economy (enmpasses motion picture and video production, television broadcast, and other film industry jobs) and the emerging creator enomy (driven by individual creators such as independent artists, writers, and performers).Forinstance,healthcare,LA,slargestsector,hasthehighestpotentialgrowthratebasedonnationalprojections,withalmost190,000jobsestimatedtobeaddedinLAby2030(althoughsomeofthesemayberecoveredjobslostduringthepandemic,ratherthannetnewjobs). Quarterly census of employment and wages: Employment by industry, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2023; McKinsey Global Institute Country level FOW model 2023; McKinsey analysis.Thetransportationandwarehousing,andlogisticssectors,employingover200,000Angelenoscombined,areestimatedtoaddapproximately15,000jobsby2030.Andprofessionalservicesmayadd30,000newjobstoLA,seconomyby2030,too. lb<d.ThehighlyspecializedcreativeeconomyandaerospaceandbiosciencealsopresentauniqueopportunityforLAtostandoutamongitspeers.R The creative econom/s location quotient, a measure of specialization, is 4.51. Quarterly census of employment and wages: Employment by industry. United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2023： McKinsey analysis.HowcanLAtakeadvantageofitspositioninthesesevenkeyindustriestoaccelerateeconomicgrowth?ThedifficultyofdoingbusinessinLA1.A,sfutureeconomicgrowthhasthepotentialtobenefitfromstrongbusinessesinthecounty,butasupportivebusinessenvironmentmaybenecessary.LA'scurrentbusinesslandscapeischaracterizedbyhighland,labor,regulatory,andutilitycosts.AccordingtoMoody,sAnalyticscostofdoingbusinessindex,themetroareaexperiencesmorechallengesthanhalfofitspeersaroundcostofdoingbusiness(Exhibit3).,Cost of doing business index, Moody,s Analytics, August 2022; Doing business North America, Center for the Study of Economic Liberty, Arizona State University, 2022; Lee Ohanian and Joseph Vranich, Why company headquarters are leaving California in unprecedented numbers, Hver Institution working paper. Economics series, number 21117, September 2022.Easeofdoingbusinesstellsasimilarstory,accordingtotheDoingbusinessNorthAmericareport;LAcitypresentsamorechallengingbusinessenvironment,particularlyintermsofemployingworkers(includingflexibilityandregulationofemployingworkers),landandspaceuse,andpayingtaxes. Factors include flexibility and regulation of employing workers, specifically as it relates to the areas of hiring, WorkiM hours, laying off workers, and leave. Factors also include procedures necessary for a business to purchase a property from another business and to transfer the property title to the buyer's name so that the buyer can use the property for： (i) expanding its business, (ii) collateral in taking new loans, or (iii) selling the property to another business. "Employing workers methodology," and "Land and space use methodology/ Doing business North America, Arizona State University, August 2022.Exhibit31.osAngeleszbusinessenvironmentpresentschallengestothecostandeaseofdoingbusiness.Ranking, Moody's Analytics Cost of doing business index (lowest to highest cost) by MSALeast costlyAtlanta.HoustonChicagoDallasDCMiamiLos AngelesBostonSan DiegoNew YorkSan JoseSan FranciscoMost costlyRanking,ASUDBNAEaseofdoingbusinessscore(easiesttomostdifficult)bycity1GreatereaseofdoingbusinessAtlanta.MiamiDallasOHoustonChicago)Boston0DCNewYorkiSanDiegoSanJose命SanFrancisco12LosAngeles1.esseaseofdoingbusiness(Basedoneaseofdoingbusinessscoresandrankings,fromrtDomgbusinessNorthAmerica(DBNA)2022report/ArizonaStateUniversity(ASU)CenterfortheStudyofEconomicUbert,2023.Source:ArizonaStateUniversity,DoingbusinessNorthAmerica;Mood/sAnalytics,CostofdoingbusinessindexUnderLA'scurrentbusinessenvironment,somesmallcompaniesmaystruggletoscaleupandsomelargerbusinessesmaylosemotivationtostay.Toensurethatcompaniesofallsizescanthrive,theremaybeopportunitytocreatesupporttailoredtodifferentneeds.1.A,sscale-upchallenge1.Aenjoysavibrantstart-upscenewithalmost4,000start-upcompaniesoperatingintheregion."Year 3: Insights to America's emerging tech hubs/ Telstra Ventures, March 2023.LAMSAperformswellcomparedtopeerMSAswhenitcomestogeneratinginnovativeideas,rankingsecondintermsofresearchanddevelopment(R&D)spending(Exhibit4).However,LAcouldlooktotransformevenmoregoodideasintoviablebusinesses.Comparedtopeers,LAMSAfallstothemiddleofthepackonnumberofpatentsandventurecapitalinvestmentdollarsreceived.LAlagsfurtherbehindpeerswhenitcomestoscalingup,asmeasuredbythenumberofsuccessfulunic