2023年煤炭报告-英.docx

Coal2023Analysisandforecastto2026INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminestheIEAmemberIEAassociationfullspectrumofenergyissuescountries:countries:includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKorea1.ithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTiirkiyeArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineThispublicationandanyUnitedKingdommapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,totheUnitedStatesdelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,TheEuropeancityorarea.CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEASource: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orqeAbstractTheglobalcoalmarkethasexperiencedaturbulentthreeyears.DemanddroppedsharplyduringtheCovidpandemic,onlytoleapduringthepost-CovidreboundandfollowingRussia'sinvasionofUkraine.In2022,globalcoaldemandreacheditshighestlevelever.Today,coalremainsthelargestenergysourceforelectricitygeneration,steelmakingandcementproduction-maintainingacentralroleintheworldeconomy.Atthesametime,coalisthelargestsourceofman-madecarbondioxide(CO2)emissions,andcurbingconsumptionisessentialtomeetinginternationalclimatetargets.Ahistoricturningpointcouldarrivesoon.TheInternationalEnergyAgency'slatestprojectionsseecoaldemandpeakingwithinthisdecadeundertoday'spolicysettings,primarilyasaresultofthestructuraldeclineincoaluseindevelopedeconomiesandaweakereconomicoutlookforChina,whichhasalsopledgedtoreachapeakinCO2emissionsbefore2030.However,keyquestionsremain,includingwhenthepeakindemandwilloccur,atwhatlevel,andhowfastconsumptionwilldeclineafterthatpoint.Sinceitsfirstpublicationin2011,theIEA,sannualCoalReporthasservedastheglobalbenchmarkforthemedium-termforecastofcoalsupply,demandandtrade.Itsanalysisalsocoverscosts,pricesandminingprojectsatregionalandcountrylevelbycoalgrade.Givencoal'simpactonenergysupplyandCo2emissions,Coal2023isindispensablereadingforthosefollowingenergyandclimateissues.Acknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsThisInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)publicationhasbeenpreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerMarketsDivision(GCP)1headedbyDennisHesseling1whoprovidedusefulsuggestionsandcommentsthroughouttheprocess.KeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurity,providedwithessentialguidance.CarlosFernandezAlvarezhasledandco-ordinatedtheanalysis.JulianKeutz5ArneLilienkampandCarlosFernandezAlvarezaretheauthorsofthereport.OtherIEAcolleaguesprovidedimportantcontributions,includingYasminaAbdelilah,HeymiBahar,StephanieBouckaert1ErenQam,LouisChambeau5JoelCouse,LauraCozzi,CaroleEtienne,VictorGarciaTapia,TimGould,CiaranHealy,AlexandraHegarty,PaulHugues,LauraMarfMartinez,GergelyMolnar,ApostolosPetropoulos,FrederickRitterandHiroyasuSakaguchi.TimelyandcomprehensivedatafromtheEnergyDataCentrewerefundamentaltothereport.TaylorMorrisonandNicolaDraguiprovidedinvaluablesupportduringtheprocess.ThanksgoalsototheIEAChinadesk,particularlyRebeccaMcKimm,YangBiqingandWangYujunfortheirresearchonChina.TheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)providedproductionandlaunchsupport.ParticularthanksgotoJethroMullen,actingHeadofCDOsandhisteam:AstridDumond,JuliaHorowitz,IsabelleNonain-SemelinandThereseWalsh.JustinFrench-Brookseditedthereport.OurgratitudegoestotheInstituteofEnergyEconomicsattheUniversityofCologne(EWI)forsharingtheirextensivecoalexpertiseandmodellinginsights.CRUprovidedinvaluabledataandinformationforthisreport.ThankstoGlenKurokawaforhissupportandsuggestions.OurgratitudegoestotheIEACoalIndustryAdvisoryBoard(CIAB)fortheirsupport.Specialthankstotheinternationalexpertswhohaveprovidedinputduringtheprocessand/orreviewedthedraftofthereport.Theyinclude:KevinBall(WhiteheavenCoal),MickBuffier(GIencore)1MichaelCaravaggio(EPRI),RodrigoEcheverri(NobleResources),NikkiFisher(ThungelaResources),JustinFlood(DeltaElectricity),PatriciaNaulitaLumbanGaol(Adaro),LukazsMazanek(PolskaGroupaGornicza),PeterMorris(MineralsCouncilofAustralia),BrianRicketts(EuracoaI),HansWilhemSchiffer(RWE),PaulSimons(YaleUniversity)andAkiraYabumoto(J-POWER).Theindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisreportarenotresponsibleforanyopinionorjudgementitcontains.AnyerrororomissionisthesoleresponsibilityoftheIEA.Forquestionsandcomments,pleasecontactCarlosFernandezAlvarez(Carlos.Fernandeziea.org).TableofcontentsExecutivesummary7Demand11Supply41Trade60Thermalcoal63Metallurgicalcoal70Pricesandcosts76Prices76Costs89Coalminingprojects:Export103Generalannex114ExecutivesummaryGlobalcoalconsumptionreachedanall-timehighin2022.Globalcoaldemandreachedarecordhighin2022amidtheglobalenergycrisis,risingby4%year-on-yearto8.42billiontonnes(Bt).Thegrowthengineforcoaldemand,whichincreasedinbothpowerandnon-powersectors,wasonceagainAsia.InChina,demandroseby4.6%,or200milliontonnes(Mt).InIndia,itincreasedby9%,or97Mt;andinIndonesia,wherenickelsmeltersbecameasignificantsourceofdemandgrowth,itshotupby32%,or49Mt.TheUnitedStatessawcoaldemandfallby8%,or37Mt,morethananyothermarket,whilea4.3%increaseinconsumptioninEuropewasmoremutedthanmanyhadfeared.DespitesubduedhydropowerandnuclearelectricitygenerationinsomeEuropeancountries,aweakeconomyandmildwinterinEuroperestrainedtheimpactofnaturalgaspricespikes,whichencouragedsomeswitchingtocoal.andtheworldisheadingtowardsanewrecordin2023In2023weexpectcoaldemandtofallinalmostalladvancedeconomies.ThebiggestdropsinconsumptionwilloccurintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates,whererecordannualdeclinesofaround20%areexpected.Otheradvancedeconomies-suchasKorea,Japan,CanadaandAustralia-aresettoseelowerratesofdecline.Nevertheless,thegrowthinChina(around5%)andIndia(over8%),aswellasinIndonesia,VietNamandthePhilippines-whichtogetherrepresentmorethan70%ofglobalcoaldemand-willmorethanoffsetthesedecreasesonagloballevel.InChinaandIndia,inparticular,risingcoalconsumptionisdrivenbyrobustgrowthindemandforelectricityandlowhydropoweroutput.Overall,weexpectglobalcoaldemandtogrowslightly(by1.4%)bothinpowerandnon-powersectorsin2023toaround8.54Bt,anewrecord.Globalcoaldemandissettodeclineto2026一butChinawillhavethelastwordWeforecastthatChina'scoalconsumptionwillfallin2024andplateauthrough2026,withhydropoweroutputsettorecoverwhileelectricitygenerationfromsolarPVandwindincreasessignificantly.However,thepaceofeconomicgrowthinChinaanditscoaluseinthecomingyearsissubjecttouncertainty.Thecountry,seconomyisundergoingmajorstructuralchangesasitreachestheendofinfrastructure-led,energy-intensivegrowth,butthespeedatwhichitchangesgearsandcontinuestoexpandcleanenergycapacitywillhaveasignificantinfluenceontheoutlookforcoal.Theavailabilityofhydropowerisakeyvariableintheshortterm,sincecoalisusedasasubstitutewhenhydrounderperformsinChina.India,Indonesiaandotheremerginganddevelopingeconomiesareexpectedtorelyoncoaltopowerstrongeconomicgrowth,despitecommitmentstoacceleratethedeploymentofrenewablesandotherlow-emissionstechnologies.Bycontrast,duetotheirdifferenteconomicandenergycontext,wedonotseeamajorriskofcoaluserisingagainamongadvancedeconomies.Coalpowerplantsarebeingregularlyshutteredintheseeconomies,andindustrialcoalconsumptionissettodeclineduetoweakindustrialoutput,improvedefficiency,andincreasedswitchingtootherfuels.Overall,weexpectglobalcoaldemandtodropin2024andplateauthrough2026,evenintheabsenceofgovernmentsannouncingandimplementingstrongercleanenergyandclimatepolicies.Asaresult,globalcoalconsumptionin2026issettobe2.3%lowerthanin2023-althoughChinawillhavethelastword.CoasshifttoAsiaisacceleratingThedominanceofChinaincoalmarketsisstrongerthananyothercountryforanyotherfuel.Itconsumesmorethanhalfoftheworld'scoalandproduceshalfofit,anditisthelargestimporter,accountingforclosetoone-thirdoftheglobalcoaltrade.ButIndiaandASEANalsoexertagrowinginfluence-helpingfurthershiftthefocusofthecoalmarkettowardsAsia.In2000,advancedeconomiesaccountedforalmosthalfofglobalcoalconsumption(48%),whileChinaandIndiatogetheraccountedfor35%.CoalconsumptionhasdeclinedintheEuropeanUnionsincethe1980sandintheUnitedStatessincethe2000s,whereasithasgrownstronglyinChina,IndiaandASEAN.Asaresult,in2026,weexpectChinaandIndiatoaccountformorethan70%ofglobalcoalconsumption.Bycontrast,theEuropeanUnionandUnitedStatesareexpectedtoeachaccountforaround3%ofglobalcoalconsumption.Thisincreasinggapinrelianceoncoalbetweencountriescouldpresentchallengesforfutureinternationaldialogueontheneedforrapiddeclineinglobalcoalusetoreachclimategoals.MajorcoalproducersareincreasingtheiroutputEnergysecurityhasmovedfurtherupthepoliticalagendaafterthemarketdisruptionssparkedbytheCovid-19pandemicandRussia'sinvasionofUkraine.ForChinaandIndia,domesticcoalproductionhaslongbeenthecornerstoneofenergysecuritypolicy.Inrecentyears,bothcountrieshavestruggledtokeepthelightsonduringperiodsofhighelectricitydemandevenbeforetheseshocksowingtocoalshortagesandhighprices.Asaresult,bothgovernmentshaveintensifiedeffortstoincreasecoalproductionsinceOctober2021.Outputfromthethreelargestproducerscontinuetoreachnewhighs.InChina,productioninbothShanxiandInnerMongoliasurpassed1Btinrecentyears.Indiaisalsoprojectedtocrossthisthresholdin2024.AndinIndonesia,whichhassignificantlyboostedcoaloutputinrecentyearsamidelevatedinternationalpricesandincreasingregionaldemand,productionisexpectedtoreach700Mtin2023forthefirsttime.Meanwhile,ligniteproductioninEurope,whilestillsignificant,willfallinlinewithregionaldemandthrough2026.HardcoalproductioninPoland,whichhascommittedtoshutdownitscoalminesby2049,issettocontinueitsslowbutinevitabledecline.ProductiondroppedintheUnitedStates,thoughthedeclinewasnotassteepasthecollapseindemand,givenhigherexportsandstockbuilding.USproductionissettodeclinefurtherthrough2026tobelow400Mt,whichwouldbethelowestlevelinsixdecades.InAustralia,productionissettodeclinethrough2026,drivenbybothlowerdomesticdemandandexports.Coaltradehasexpandedtoanall-timehighin2023butwilldeclineafterwardsThevolumeofcoaltradehasincreasedalmosteveryyearthiscenturywithveryfewexceptions.In2015,China'smeasurestoprotectitsdomesticcoalindustry,coupledwithaslowingeconomythatweighedonconsumption,ledtothefirstcontractionincoaltradesincethe1990s.In2020,theeconomicdownturndrivenbytheCovid-19pandemictriggeredtheseconddrop.Now,afterarecoveryin2021and2022,globalcoaltradevolumesaresettoriseagainin2023,reachingrecordlevelsforseaborneandtotaltrade-thoughdeclinesareexpectedinthecomingyears.Europeanimportscollapsedin2023amidlowdemandandplentifulstocks,whileJapan,KoreaandChineseTaipeireducedtheirimportsinlinewithlowercoaldemand.However,growthinChina,whichwillrecorditshighestimportseverin2023,willmorethanoffsetthesedeclines.DespitestrongdomesticproductioninChina,exportershavebenefittedfromrobustdemandandmassivestockbuildingduetoenergysecurityconcerns.Onthesupplyside,IndonesiaonceagainprovedtobethemostflexibleexporterandW川exportcloseto500Mtin2023,alevelthathasneverbeenreachedbyanycountrybefore.Australiawillincreaseexportsby10MtasdisruptionsinducedbyLaNihainthepastfewyearsrecede.Russia'seffortstoreplaceitsformerEuropeanenergycustomerscontinue,withabouthalfofexportsin2023directedtoChina,upfromlessthanone-quarterin2021.In2023,thermalcoalpricesareretreatingfromtheir2021and2022highsInOctober2021,thermalcoalpricesreachedunprecedentedlevelswhensupplywasinsufficienttomeetasuddenriseindemandafterCovidrestrictionswereeasedinmanycountries.AfterRussia'sinvasionofUkrainein2022,highgasprices,supply-sideconstraints,andenergysecurityconcernsdrovecoalpricestoall-timehighs.Yetaftersummer2022,lowergaspricesandgreatercoalsupplyledtoapullbackincoalprices.In2023,priceshavefurtherrecededglobally,althoughtheyarestillhigherthanpre-Covidlevels.Regionaldisparitiesareevident,withpricessteadierinChinaowingtostrongdomesticsupply,whileweatherdisruptionsjoltedpricesinAustralia.Russiancoalhastradedatavariablediscount,sometimesontheorderofUSD200pertonne,thoughmorerecentlyithasbeenjustafewdollarspertonnecheaper.Coalproducershaveseensignificantcostinflationinthepastfewyears,whichhasstemmedfromincreasedroyaltiesowedtogovernmentsinsomepartsoftheworldandsurgingcostsforfuel,explosives,tyresandlabour.TwoyearsofunprecedentedprofitshaveleftcoalproducersflushwithcashCoalpricesduringthepasttwoyearshavebeenmuchhigherthanexpected.Consumershavestruggledtocopeasenergybillshavejumped.Somecountriesintervenedtoprovidesupportthroughregulatorymeasuresandsubsidies,especiallyintheelectricitysector.Meanwhile,producershaveenjoyedstrongmarginsevenastheircostshaverisen,andgenerousroyaltieshavemadesignificantcontributionstothepublicbudgetsofmanyproducercountries.Coalminingcompanieshavepaidbackdebts,increaseddividendsandbuybacks,andretainedsomecash.Diversifiedminershaveoftenchannelledcoalprofitstowardsothercommoditiesasgrowingdemandtiedtotheenergytransitionisexpectedtodriveuptheirprices.However,Glencore,thelargestthermalcoalexporter,willalsobecomeamajorproducerofcokingcoalafteritcompletesitsacquisitionofElkValleyResources,whichwasannouncedearlierthisyear.Giventhedifficultyofreceivingregulatoryapprovalsandpublicpushbackagainstnewprojects,purecoalplayersaregenerallyoptingtoacquireexistingminesratherthandevelopprojectsfromscratch.DemandGlobalcoaldemandisexpectedtopeakin2023anddecreasethereafterIn2022,coaldemandreachedanewrecordhighof8415Mt,increasingby4%.Theincreasewasmainlybackedbygrowthincountriesthatrelyheavilyoncoal,suchasChinaandIndia.Furthermore,extraordinarilyhighgaspricesandgenerallyweakernuclearpowerandhydropowerproductiondrovegrowthindemandforcoaltogeneratepower.Coaldemandforpowergenerationroseby4%to5687Mt.Coalusefornon-powerpurposesroseby3.7%to2728Mt.Accountingformorethanhalfofglobalcoaldemand,Chinaisbyfartheworld,slargestcoalconsumer.In2022,thecountry'soverallcoaldemandroseby4.6%toatotalof4520Mt,withcoaltakingashareofmorethan60%inpowergeneration.India,theworld'ssecond-largestcoalconsumercomprisingabout14%ofglobalcoaldemand,recordedanincreaseof9%,totalling1162Mt.In2023globalcoaldemandisexpectedtohaveincreasedonlymarginallyby1.4%,albeitreachinganewall-timehighofabout8536Mt.Coaldemandgrowthislosingmomentumduetolukewarmeconomicprospectspairedwiththeweakeningofthefactorsthatpushedcoal-firedpowergenerationin2022.Meanwhile,globalcoaldemandisexpectedtocontinuemovingeastwards,withChina,India,andASEANcountriescombinedconsumingthree-quartersofglobaldemand.Atthestartofthecentury,thatsharewasaround35%,lowerthanthecombinedshareoftheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesatthattime.Inabsoluteterms,coaldemandin2023isestimatedtohaveincreasedmoststronglyinChina(up220Mt,or4.9%),followedbyIndia(up98Mt,or8%)andI