2024年全球合作晴雨表WEF_The_Global_Cooperation_Barometer_2024-英.docx

WQRLDECONOMICFQRUMIncollaborationwithMcKinsey&CompanyTheGlobalCooperationBarometer2024INSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3AbouttheGlobalCooperationBarometer4Executivesummary6Introduction:Thestateofglobalcooperation7Fivepillarsofglobaloperation9Pillar1Tradeandcapital9Pillar2Innovationandtechnology11Pillar3Climateandnaturalcapital13Pillar4Healthandwellness15Pillar5Peaceandsecurity17Conclusion:Towardsamoreoperativefuture19Appendix:Sourcesandmethodology20Contributors22Endnotes23DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandndusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollat>orativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024TheGlobalCooperationBarometer2024ForewordBob Sternfels Global Managing Partner, McKinsey & CompanyBorgeBrendePresident,WorldEconomicForum Leaders in business and government will need to recognize where the contours of opposition end and those of alignment begin to navigate through the geopolitical turbulence and also to shape a more cooperative future.ThelaunchoftheGlobalCooperationBarometercomesatthestartofacrucialyear,amidaperiodofimmensegeopolitical,geo-economicandmarketuncertainty,whenthebedrockofwhatwasonceastableglobalsystemisshiftingunderfoot.Leadersinthepublicandprivatesectorswillneedtogainfluencyinthedynamicsdrivingthechangestonotjuststabilizetheirposition,buttobeequippedtoshapeabeneficialfuture.Itisnosecretthatthecurrentglobalcontextisconcerning,asheightenedcompetitionandconflictappeartobereplacingcooperation.Theresultisthatnewpowerdynamics,changingdemographicrealitiesandbreakthroughfrontiertechnologiesareraisingthetemperatureonlong-simmeringdistrustratherthanfuelingopportunitiesforbenefit.Manybusinessesarerespondingtothesecomplicated-andoftenfraught-geopoliticaldevelopmentsbyshiftingoperationsandfacilitiesclosertohome.Yet,althoughtheworldisheadingtowardsadangerousdividebysomemeasures,elsewherethereareprospectsforandprogressoncooperativearrangements.Forinstance,forthefirsttimesincecountriesbeganmeetingtoaddressglobalwarming,anagreementwasreachedattheCOP28climatechangeconferenceontransitioningawayfromfossilfuels.Thatcooperationandconfrontationcancoexistshouldnotcomeasasurprise.Historyisrepletewithpartiesatoddswithoneanother,butstillseekingopportunitiesforcollaboration.Notably,attheheightoftheColdWar,theUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioncoordinatedoneradicatingsmallpoxandaddressingtheozonelayerintheatmosphere.Andmanycompaniesthatcompetewithoneanotheralsofindwaystocooperateinareasofmutualbenefit.Itiswithintoday,scomplexgeopoliticalcontextthatgaininganunderstandingoftheshapeofglobalcooperation-andcompetition-isvital.Leadersinbusinessandgovernmentwillneedtorecognizewherethecontoursofoppositionendandthoseofalignmentbegintonavigatethroughthegeopoliticalturbulenceandalsotoshapeamorecooperativefuture.ItisforthisreasonthattheWorldEconomicForumandMcKinsey&CompanydevelopedtheGlobalCooperationBarometer.Thepurposeofthisanalysis,whichuses42indicatorstomeasurethestateofglobalcooperationbroadlyandalongfiveareas,istohelpstakeholdersinbusinessandgovernmentgainabetterunderstandingofthenatureofcooperationthatis,orisnot,takingplace.OurhopeisthattheGlobalCooperationBarometerwillofferstakeholdersatooltouseinshapingahealthier,moreprosperousandmoresustainableworldintheyearaheadandbeyond.AbouttheGlobalCooperationBarometerTheGlobalCooperationBarometerisstructuredalongfivedimensionsofglobalconnection:tradeandcapital,innovationandtechnology,climateandnaturalcapital,healthandwellness,andpeaceandsecurity.Thesefivepillarswerechosenbecauseoftheirimpactonglobaldevelopmentandtheirexplicitdependenceoncooperativeeffortsamongnationsandeconomies.Asaguidingelementintheanalysis,thebarometeridentifiedgoalsthatactorsareworkingtowardineachofthesethemes.Indoingso,thebarometerdrawsinspirationfromtheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandtheeffortsofotherglobalinstitutions.Toquantifychangeinthesepillars,42indicatorswereidentifiedthatresearchsuggestsareeithercooperativeactionsthatadvanceprogressonthegoalsofthepillarsordemonstrateabroadoutcomefromthoseactions.Cooperativeactionmetricsmeasureactionsthatprovideevidenceofoperation;theseindicators(suchasflowsofgoodsandexchangeofintellectualproperty)areevidenceofreal,manifestedcooperationanddonotinclude“onpaper”commitments.Otmemetrics(suchaslifeexpectancy)measuretheprogressofcooperation,buttypicallyareinfluencedbyadditionalfactorsbeyondjustcperation.Themetricsspancountriesinallgeographiesandalllevelsofdevelopment.Thebarometerlooksbackatthelast11years,from2012through2022toestablishatrendlineofcooperation.Itindexesdatato2020forthefollowingreason:astheCOVID-19pandemictookhold,itacceleratedmanytrendsexistinginbusinessandsocietyandsetinmotionmanynewones.Indexingthetimeseriesto2020allowsustoseewhattrendswereinplacebeforethepandemic,andthetrendsthatemergedfromit(withoutinfluencingordistortingthetrendsthemselves).Notethatsomemetricshavebeeninvertedsuchthatanyincreaserepresentsapositivedevelopment.ThemethodologyusedfortheGlobalCooperationBarometerisoutlinedbelow.DetailsonsourcingofindividualmetricsareintheAppendix.TheGlobalCooperationBarometer's5pillarsofglobalcooperationTradeandcapitalPromoteglobaldevelopmentandresilienceFocusofanalysisisoni)developmentandresilientoutcomes;throughii)presenceofglobaleconomicflowsthatpromotelikelyopportunitiesfortheseoutcomesInnovationandtechnologyAccelerateinnovationandbeneficialtechnologicalprogressFocusofanalysisisoni)globalprogressininnovationandtechnology:throughii)presenceoftheglobalsharingofunderlyingknowledgethatcontributestotheseoutcomesbyfosteringcollaborationacrossglobaltalentClimateandnaturalcapitalSupporttheresolutionofclimateandnaturalcapitalchallengesFocusofanalysisisoni)loweringofemissions,preservationofnaturalcapital,andpreparednessforlikelyimpactofclimatechange;throughii)sharedglobalgoals/COmmitmentSthatincreasehumanity'sabilitytolimitandadapttothedynamicsofachangingclimateHealthandwellnessEnableglobalpopulationtoleadlongerandbetterlivesFocusofanalysisisoni)impactoftheburdenofdiseaseondurationandqualityoflife;throughii)commitmenttoglobalpublichealthstandardsandcollaborationthroughflowsofgoods,R&D/IPandhealthfinancingPeaceandsecurityPreventandresolveconflictsFocusofanalysisisoni)preventionofdeathandlong-termnegativeimplicationsofconflict;throughii)commitmenttomultilateralpeacekeepingoperationsandinternationalstabilizationeffortsDatacoverage1. GeographyAcrossallmetrics,thebarometeraimstocollectglobaldata.Inmostcases,anaggregateglobalweightedaverageisavailable.Whenaglobalweightedaverageisnotavailable,themostcomprehensivedataisused(e.g.OECDcountries,orasamplesetofcountrieswheredataisavailableforallyears).2. YearsWhilethebarometermeasurescperationfrom2012through2022,afewmetricsdonothavedataforallyears.Allmetricshave2020datatoensuretheindexedtrendlinecanbecalculated.IndexcalculationToevaluateglobalcooperationfairlyandcomparetrendlinesoftheactionandoutcomemetricsacrossthefivepillars,theglobalcooperationbarometerappliesthefollowingmethodology:1. IndexedtrendlinesDatafrom2020servesasthebaseyeartodevelopcomparabletrendlines,withallvaluesin2020equalto1(2020=1).Thisbase-yearstandardizationisthebasisofthescorecalculation,enablingauniformreferencepointforallmetricsandcomparability,despitedifferentunitsanddatasets.2. DatanormalizationWherepossible,metricsarenormalizedtoensurethattrendlinescanbeassessedindependentlyoftheeffectsofeconomicgrowthorpopulationchanges.Forexample,trade,capital,andotherfinancialflowsarenormalizedtoglobalGDP,whilemigrationmetricsarenormalizedtoglobalpopulationlevels.3. WeightingEachpillarcomprisestwoindices:anactionindexandanoutcomeindex.Toarriveateach,themetricswithinareweightedequally(i.e.theactionindexisasimpleaverageofmetricsmeasuringcooperativeactions).Theoverallindexforapillariscalculatedasanaverageoftheactionandoutcomemetrics.Aggregateindicesacrosspillarsarealsocalculatedasasimpleaverageofpillarindices(i.e.equalweightingacrosspillars).ExecutivesummaryCooperationismultifacetedandcancoexistwithcompetition.Theworldisfacingcomplexchallenges.Addressingthemdemandscooperationatthegloballevel.Today'seconomyisinafragilestate,withgrowthexpectedtobewellbelowthehistoricalaverage,aordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).'Revitalizingtradewillbecrucialtostrengtheningtheeconomicoutlookaheadandboostinglivelihoods.However,theIMFhasraisedalarmsaboutthepossibilityofglobalfragmentation,whichcouldshaveoff7%ofglobalGDP.2Similarly,technologicalinnovationiskeytoboostingcurrentlysluggishproductivitygrowth,withgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)holdingextraordinarypotential-$2.6trillionto$4.4trillioninadditionalannualvalueacrossindustries,asestimatedbytheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute.3Theonlywaytounlockthisbenefitandmanageundesirableconsequencesisthroughglobalcoordination.Climatechangerequiresgovernmentsandbusinessestoworktogethertoreachnetzero,adapttoshiftsinclimatealreadylockedinbypreviousemissions,anddoallofthisinawaythatsupportseconomicdevelopmentacrosstheglobe.Justlikethehealthoftheplanet,thehealthofpeoplerequiresoperationgloballybetweengovernmentsandbusinesses.Long-termadvancementsinhealthandimmediateresponsestoacutecriseslikepandemicsrequirepartiesaroundtheworldtoworktogether.Yet,intermsofaddressingthehealthandwell-beingofpeopleandtheplanet,theworldappearsoffcourse,withjust15%oftheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsontrack.4Yet,asoperationisbeminganimperative,theworldorderappearstobefragmenting.Indeed,theglobalsecuritylandscape-oncealargelycooperativedomaininthepost-ColdWarera-isdeteriorating,withtheUnitedNationsnotingatthestartof2023thattheworldwaswitnessingthehighestnumberofviolentconflictssinceWorldWarIl.5TheGlobalCooperationBarometer2024presentsanapproachtomeasurethecurrentstateofglobalcooperation.Indoingso,thereportismeanttoserveasatoolforleaderstobetterunderstandthentorsofcooperationbroadlyandalongfivepillars-tradeandcapitalflows,innovationandtechnology,climateandnaturalcapital,healthandwellness,andpeaceandsecurity.Aftertrendingpositivelyformuchofthepastdecade,globalcooperationrisksmovingintoreverse.Thestoryvariesbypillar:-Tradeandcapital:tradeandcapitalcperationgrewthroughthepandemicdisruption,butslowedin2023;geopoliticaltensionsandnewrestrictionsmakethefuturepathunclear.-Innovationandtechnology:flowsofdata,IPandinternationalstudentspoweredanincreaseincooperationuntil2020,butnewquestionshavearisenabouthowtoworktogethertoharnessopportunities.- Climateandnaturalcapital:thelevelofcooperationforclimateandnaturalcapitalhasbeenrisingsteadily,dueinlargemeasuretoanincreaseincommitments,butemissionsalsocontinuetorise.- Healthandwellness:cooperationinhealthandwellnessroseswiftlyinresponsetothepandemic,butappearstobesettlingbacktohistoricalpatterns.- Peaceandsecurity:cooperationinpeaceandsecurityhasdeclinedsince2016andplummetedrecently.Becauseitisunlikelythatthecurrentgeopoliticalclimatewillchangeandcompetitionandconfrontationwillsooncool,thebarometersuggeststhatleadersinbusinessandgovernmentshouldreimaginecooperation.Thebarometershowsthatcooperationismultifaceted,andelementsofcooperationcancoexistwithelementsofrivalry.Leaderscanpractice,*cpetitio,'-balancingcooperationandmpetition-toadvancesharedinterestsinspecificareas,despitelackofalignmentelsewhere.Further,leaderscanusetheseinstancesofcooperationtobuildmutualtrust,whichinturncouldstrengthencooperationinotherareas.Fundamentally,companiesandcountriesshouldrememberthatcooperationbreedsstrengthandresilience.Thosethatthoughtfullyandconstructivelymanagerelationshipsbouncebackbetterfromchallengesandachieveobjectives.6IntroductionThestateofglobalcooperationMeasuringcooperationisacriticalstepinidentifyingwaystostrengtheningit.B Overall, the barometer indicates that after trending positively for much of the past decade, global cooperation has been mildly reversing (down 2%) since 2020.Theworldisfacingaplethoraofchallengesthatrequireglobalcooperationtosolve.Globaltemperaturesshatteredprevioushighsandlastyearwasthehottestonrecord.7And,over114millionpeoplehavebeenforciblydisplacedworldwide-thehighestlevelever.0Atthesametime,ongoingthreatsofapandemicandtherisksofnew,unregulatedtechnologieswarrantconcern.Cperationisnotonlynecessaryasareactivemechanismtoaddressthreateningglobaldevelopments,butitisalsoneededtounlocknewopportunities.Indeed,generativeAlhasthepotentialtocontributeasmuchas$2.6trillionto$4.4trilliontotheglobaleconomy,butrequiressubstantialcoordinationacrosstheglobalesystemtomitigaterisksandensurebenefitsaresharedwidely.9Recenthistoryhasshownthatglobalcooperationcandeliverprofoundbenefits.Duringthefirstquarter-centuryaftertheendoftheColdWar-aperiodlargelyseenasahighpointforglobaloperation-expandedtradeliftedglobalincomesandasaresult,thenumberofpeoplelivinginextremepovertywascutinhalf.10InstancesoftheinternationalcommunityreflexivelycomingtogetherduringthisperiodaremostevidentthroughsecuritycoordinationintheaftermathoftheSeptember11,2001attacks,financialcoordinationinthewakeoftheglobalfinancialcrisisin2008,whichincludedupgradingtheG20,andglobalcommitmentstoaddressthegrowingdangerofclimatechangethroughthe2015signingoftheParisClimateAgreement.Bymanyaccounts,thegeopoliticaldialturnedfromcooperationtocompetitioninthemid-201Os,asnationalistforcesincreasedinmanycountriesandprotectionistpoliciesrose.11ThedialthenturnedfurtherawayfromcooperationasconflictbrokeoutinEurope,AfricaandtheMiddleEastinrecentyears,withtheUNwarninginearly2023thattheworldwaswitnessingthehighestlevelofviolentconflictsinceWorldWarIl.12Despitethechallengingcontext,thestoryaboutglobalcooperationisnotblackandwhite.Countriesandcompaniescancompetewhilealsocooperating.Competition,andevenconfrontation,canspikeinoneareawhilecooperationcandeepeninothers.Inanotableexample,in2022,amidheightenedtensionsbetweentheUnitedStatesandChina,asclimatenegotiationsbetweenbothcountriesweresuspendedandtalkofdecouplingdominatedairwaves,bilateraltradereachedrecordlevels.13Tohelpdevelopabetterunderstandingofthecurrentstateofglobalcooperation,thisreportpresentstheGlobalCooperationBarometer-atoolthatexaminescooperationinfivepillars:tradeandcapital,innovationandtechnology,climateandnaturalcapital,healthandwellness,andpeaceandsecurity.Thefivepillarswerechosenbecause,giventheinterconnectednatureoftheworld,cooperationatthegloballevelisnecessarytoseeadvancementsineachoftheseareas.Overall,t