《2024全球市场并购报告》(英).docx

GlobalM&AReport2024GaininganedgeinamarketresetBAlN&COMPANY©AcknowledgmentsThisreportwaspreparedbytheleadershipteamofBain&Company'sGlobalM&AandDivestiturespractice,withspecialdirectionfromLesBaird,partner;DavidHarding,advisorypartner;DaleStafford,partner;KaiGrass,partner;SuzanneKumar,practicevicepresident;LindseyWhite,seniormanager;andaneditorialteamledbyDavidDiamond.TheauthorswishtothankthemanymembersoftheBainleadershipteamwhocontributedarticlestothisyear'sreport.Additionally,wewishtothankthefollowingcolleaguesfortheirhelpwiththisreport:BainPartnersHarshveerSingh,PeterHorsley,andColleenvonEckartsberg;PracticeManagersDwightStallsandAnnaNowak-Dzialak;PracticeSeniorAnalystAmolMathur;ConsultantsShanePorterandAyshaRashid;SeniorAssociateConsultantJaysonChung;andAssociateConsultantKatieJones.ThisworkadditionallybenefitedfromthesupportofBainCapabilityNetwork'sAbhishekJain,RoopamKalra,ChhaviKhandelwal,SanyaKataria,YashovardhanDey,andSuprakashGosh.Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeofinterviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBainandmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company'sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,pied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.Copyright©2024Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.GlobalM&AReport2024Contents1.etterfromtheLeaderofBain,sM&APractice3StateoftheMarket5LookingBackatM&Ain2023:WhoWinsinaDownYear?6LookingAhead:HowtheBigBacklogW川Shapethe2024M&AAgenda13.HotTopics18GenerativeAlinM&A:WhereHopeMeetsHype19RegulationandM&A:HowScrutinyRaisestheBarforAcquirers24.Industries30M&AinAerospaceandDefense:FourThemesShapingSpaceIndustryDealsin202432M&AinAutomotiveandMobility:DealstoSecureaPlaceintheIndustry'sFuture37M&AinBuildingProducts:VenturingbeyondtheCore43.CanConsumerProductsCompaniesMastertheSmallDeal?47M&AinRetail:WhyScaleStillIsParamountinGrocery53M&AinBanking:ThreeSmallWavesofDeals57M&AinInsurance:DealsAdvanceCapabilitiesandRiskPrevention61M&AinPayments:MakingStrategicMoves,withFewHeadlineDeals65M&AinWealthandAssetManagement:FindingPocketsofOpportunityinaSlowYear69M&AinEnergyandNaturalResources:TheCircularEconomyIsNotLinear73GlobalM&AReport2024BAIN&COMPANY©M&AinHRRthCareandLifeSciences:AShrinkingMarginforErrorinDnaIS78M&AinMedia:BigChangesAreForcingBoldMoves82M&AinTechnology:GettingSeriousaboutProductSynergies85M&AinTelecommunications:MakingtheRightSelectiveBetsinaToughEnvironment.90Regions96M&AinBrazil:InternationalBuyersActWhileDomesticAcquirersShowCaution.97M&AinIndia:ContinuedOptimismFuelsMomentum101.M&AinJapan:ResilientActivitybutNowIt'sTimeforMore105.M&AintheMiddleEast:FromGreenEnergytoAsianExpansiontoFootball109Methodology113Keycontacts116GlobalM&AReport20241.etterfromtheLeaderofBain,sM&APracticeDearfriends,WepublishourannualM&Areporttohelpbusinessleadersgetbetterattheartandscienceofdoingdeals.Inthis,oursixthreport,weanalyzewhy2023wastheyearthatbuyersandsellerscouldn'tagreeonvaluations,notinghowstrategicdealmultiplessanktotheirlowestlevelin15yearswhilepublicmarketvaluationsended2023nearall-timehighs.Ourreportincludesalookatthestateofthemarketandourviewoftheyearahead(optimistic).Ilalsodivesintospecificindustriesandregionsandexplorestheimpactofgenerativeartificialintelligenceandregulatoryscrutinyondcalmaking.Acommonthemerunningthroughthesechapters:Turbulenttimesproducestrategicwinnersandlosers,and2023wasnoexception.1.esBaird1.eaderofBain,sM&APracticeStateoftheMarket1.ookingBackatM&Ain2023:WhoWinsinaDownYear?61.ookingAhead:HowtheBigBacklogW川Shapethe2024M&AAgenda13.StateoftheMarket1.ookingBackatM&Ain2023:WhoWinsinaDownYear?Dealsslowedasbuyersandsellerswaitedfortheothertomakethefirstmove.ByDavidHarding,DaleStafford,KaiGrass,SuzanneKumar,andLindseyWhiteAtaGlance,In2023,thetotalM&Amarketdropped15%,to$3.2trillion,thelowestlevelinadecade.»StrategicM&Adeclined6%asbuyersandsellersstruggledtoclosethegaponvaluations,andstrategicdealmultipleswerethelowestthey,vebeeninadecade.> Dealsweredelayedforotherreasons,includinghighinterestrates,mixedmacroeconomicsignals,regulatoryscrutiny,andgeopoliticalrisks.> Manylongtimefrequentacquirersused2023asanopportunitytoexpandtheircompetitiveadvantagethroughM&A.It'snosecretthattheM&Amarketdeclinedin2023asthevaluationgapbetweenwhatbuyerswantedtospendandwhatsellerswantedtochargefortheircompanieskeptmanywould-bedealsfromhappening.M&Apractitionerstoldusthatthevaluationgapwasthebiggestobstacletodealmaking,andtherewereotherheadwindsin2023aswell,includinghighinterestrates,macroeconomicuncertainty,risingregulatoryscrutiny,andnewpoliticalpressures.Butwhiledownoverallby6%invalue,thestrategicM&Amarketreflectedunevenperformance.Forexample,techdealscrateredwhileactivityinhealthcareandlifesciencesaswellasenergyandGlobalM&AReport2024naturalresourcesrebounded.TheAmericasmarketheldsteadyasEuropeandAsiafaltered.Scratchbeneaththeplacidsurface,andyouseehow,acrossindustriesandaroundtheworld,winningcompaniesturnedtodealstoreinventtheirfuture,whetheritwasautomakersacquiringtosecuresuppliesforthetransitiontoelectricvehicles,insurersbuyingtoexpandtheirtraditionalroleofriskprotectiontoriskprevention,ormediacompanieslearningthatpartneringwithformerfiercecompetitorsistheonlywaytowinastheirindustryentersanewera.Thecompaniesthatmadesuchmoveswillbethosethatemergeasleaders.PerhapsthemostimportantM&Anewsfrom2023,however,wasthewideningoftheperformancegapbetweenfrequentacquirersandtheirinactivepeers.Accordingtoourlong-termresearch,frequentacquirersalwaysoutperfonintotalshareholderreturn.In2023,thatmargincontinuedtogrow.WhatthenumberssayTheworldofstrategicM&Astillsawmorethan27,000dealsannounced,totalingabout$2.4trillion,a6%declineinvaluefromtheyearbefore(seeFigure1).Ifthosenumbersseembetterthanwhatyoumayhavereadinthenewspapers,keepinmindthatthebroaderworldofleveragedprivateequityandventurecapitaldealshadamuchworsetime(down37%invalue).Thosebusinessesweremoreexposedtotheriseofinterestralesandissuesofdebtavailability.Incontrast,corporatebuyersgenerallyhadstrongerbalancesheetswithcashonhandtododeals.Figure 1: GlobalM&Adealvaluewas$3.2trillionin2023,down15%yearoveryearM&Adealmarketvalue(intrillionsofUSdollars)IStrategicM&A,6%Financialinvestors,34%VentureCapitaIZcorporateventurecapital,42%Specialpurposeacquisitioncompanies,4%Note:StrategicM&AincludescorporateM&Adeals(whichincludesprivateequityexits)andadd-onsSource:DealogicasofJanuary16,2024GlobalM&AReport2024Still,nodealmakercouldavoidtheimpactofrisinginterestrates.Nearlyeveryexecutivewespokewithandafull95%ofthosewesurveyedagreedthathigherinterestratesrequiredthemtoadapttheirapproachtoM&Ain2023.TheNo.1adjustment?Beingmoreselectiveinwhichdealsarebeingpursued,whichwascitedbytwo-thirdsofrespondents.Butthebiggestobstaclewasthegapbetweenvaluations,whichcontributedtothelowestyearforstrategicM&Ainadecadeandcausedpricestoplunge.Thevaluationgapwastheonlythingthatsurveyedbuyersandsellersseemedtoagreeon.Morethantwo-thirdsofbuyerstoldusthatitnegativelyimpactedM&Aactivity.Ontheothersideofthetable,atnearlythesamerate,potentialsellerscitedmorefavorabledealvaluationsasatopfactorindecidingwhentobringtheirassetstomarket.Insomeways,2023willberememberedastheyearinwhichbuyersandsellerswaitedforeachothertoblink.Anecdotally,Weheardfromourinvestmentbankingfriendsthatanotablenumberofdealprocesseswereabandonedbeforebidswereacceptedthispastyear.Whywasitparticularlyhardtoclosethevaluationgapin2023?Ourresearchpointedoutfourcauses.Again,risinginterestratesplayedamajorrole.Thebigargumentthroughout2023wastheshapeoftheinterestratecurveinyearstocome.Buyersneededdealstodeliveramarginofsafetyfromhigher-for-longerinterestrateswhereassellersheldbackinhopesthatrateswouldcomebackdown.,Asecondstraightyearofdecliningstrategicdealvaluationsmadedealmakerswary(seeFigure2).At10.1times,overalldealmultipleswerethelowestin15years,withroomtofallfurther;mostdownturnsfindatroughbetween9timesand10times.Amiddecliningvaluations,buyerstookaskepticalviewofassetspricedwithpridewhilesellerssawlittlereasontogiveawayvalue.,Moreover,ahealthystockmarketin2023exacerbatedtheyawninggapbetweenprivateandpublicmarketvaluations.Withstockstradingwell,sellersandtheirshareholderspreferredtoholdontoassetsratherthanfacedilutionfromsellingatadepressedmultiple.,Finally,privateequityexitsweredown44%invalueand22%involume.Besidescuttingoffasourceofpotentiallyattractivetargets,deferredprivateequityexitsmeantthattherewerefewermarksforfairmarketvalue,furthercloudingpricetransparency.Anotherfactorbehindfewerdealsisincreasedscrutinybyregulatorsaroundtheglobe.TheEuropeanCommission,theUKCompetitionandMarketsAuthority,andtheUSDepartmentofJusticeandFederalTradeCommissionhaveeyedmajormergerswithskepticism,particularlytechandhealthcaretie-ups.Atotalof$361billionindealshavebeenchallengedsince2022;mosthaveclosed,oftenwithremedies.Thedusthasnotyetsettledontheevolvingantitrustregulatorylandscapeascourtsweighinandnewguidelinesarcproposed.Nationalsecurityconcernsalsoremainafactorforsensitivesectorssuchassemiconductorsornuclearenergy.Inthisenvironment,GlobalM&AReport2024Figure 2: Strategicdealmultipleshaveplummetedforthesecondyearinarow,evenaspublicmarketvaluationsreboundedEnterprisevalue-to-EBITDAvaluations,indexedto2014Year over year 2022-20234%16%20141516181920212223Notes:S&P500enterprisevalue-to-EBITDAvaluationsrepresenttheannualaveragemultiple:strategicM&AvaluationsrepresentthemedianmultipleforeachcalendaryearSources：DealogicasofJanuary16,2024；S&PCapitalIQsomedealsmaynevergetofftheground;othersaremorelikelytobeabandonedinthefaceofachallenge.Weexploretheimpactoflongerandmoreuncertaintimelinesin4lReguIationandM&A:HowScrutinyRaisestheBarforAcquirers/'1.ookingbeneaththesurfaceAcrossindustries,thecollapseoftechM&AwasthebiggestdragonstrategicM&Ain2023(SeeFigure3).Tcchdealvaluesdeclinedbyroughly45%asmedianvaluations,definedbyenterprisevalue-to-EBITDAmultiples,tumbledfrom202shighof25timesto13timeslastyear.Emerson,sacquisitionOfNationalInstrumentstoexpandautomationcapabilitiesandCisco'sbidforSplunkforitscybersecuritycapabilitiespointtotheongoingdemandforhigh-quality(andprofitable)techassets.Yet,aswe,vcexploredelsewhere,ahighcr-for-longerinterestrateenvironmentchangesthedealmathformosttechdealspredicatedongrowthoverprofitability(seeGlobalM&AReportMidyear2022orM&AMidyearReport2023:ItTakesTwotoMakeaMarket).Atthesametime,ahealthydoseofbig-ticketdealssupportedastrongM&Ayearforenergyandhealthcare,promptedbydifferingsectordynamics.Onthebackofrisingcommodityprices,scaledealsinenergyandnaturalresourcesledthepack,withtwomegadealsinoilandgasandthreeadditionalmajortie-upscomprisingatotalofabout$175billionindealvalue,accordingtoDcaIogic.GlobalM&AReport2024Figure 3: HealthcareandlifesciencesaswellasenergyandnaturalresourcesM&Areboundedin2023butnotenoughtooffsetdeclinesintechandmanufacturingChangeinstrategicdealvalue(inbillionsofUSdollars)Technology213Year-over-year percentage43% changeRetailTelecommunicationsMedianergy and naturalresourcesConsumerproductsand servicesHealthcare and life sciencesFinancial servicesAdvanced manufacturing19%23% 50% 3% 32% 126%29%17%Source:DealogicasofJanuary16,2024CompaniesinhealthcareandlifesciencescontinuedtheirpursuitofgrowthviascopedealsasrepresentedbyAbbVie,sback-to-backdealsforImmunoGenandCerevelTherapeuticsinDecemberandMerck,searlieracquisitionofPrometheus.Theyearsawacommonthreadofverticaldcalmaking.Companiesnavigatingashocktotheprofitpool,whetherashiftfrominternalcombustionenginestoelectricvehiclesortheriseoftheInternetasadistributionchannel,haveturnedtoM&Atotransform.Automotivecompaniesaredoingdeals,suchasStellantis,sinvestmentinLytenandFord,sacquisitionofAutoMotivePower,tosecureaccesstocriticalchargingtechnologyandtoinvestintheirownrecharginggrids.Inmedia,thevaluechainhasbeenredesignedthroughmergingofcontentanddistribution,leadingtonewstrategiesforpartnershipsandalliances.VerticalM&Acanalsoreflectadaptivestrategiesinthefaceofindustryconsolidation.IntheUS,healthcarepayersareusingM&Atobuildhealthdeliverynetworks,asexemplifiedbyCVS,spurchaseofOakStreetHealth(hisyear.Spin-offsremainedanessentialtoolinportfoliotransformationaswell.Forexample,Danahercontinueditsreorientationtowardlifesciencesviaa$23billionspin-offofitswaterbusiness(Veralto)whileacquiringAbeamanditsproteinconsumablesbusinessfor$5.7billion.SanofijoinedGlobalM&AReport2024otherhealthcarecompaniesinannouncingtheseparationofitsconsumerhealthbusiness.Spin-offsarcexceedinglyhardtogetright,buttop-quartileperformersshowhowvaluabletheycanbe(see“WhenaSpin-OffWinsBig,)Notably,cross-borderdealmakingwassustainedasinvestorssoughttoenhanceportfoliosinmorefavorablemarkets.USbuyerspursuedmorecross-borderdeals,up34%invalue,whiledomesticvaluerose2%.Similarly,Brazilremainedattractivetoforeigninvestment,evenasdomesticClealmakingdeclined(see“M&AinBrazil:InternationalBuyersActWhileDomesticAcquirersShowCaution,).Asiasawa60%increaseindealsfromtheMiddleEastassovereignwealthfundssoughttobuildsupplychainsandfacilitateenergytransitions.Andmegadealsmadeamarkinthesecondhalfof2023,apossiblesignalthatdealmakerswerereadytolookforward.ForM&Aobservers,thetimingwasn'ttoosurprising.Manycompanieshadsustainedhighlevelsofproactivedealscreeningandoutside-induediligenceevenasdealcountsfell.Somedeals,suchasChevron-Hess,wereyearslonginthemakingifopportunisticintiming.Others,suchasCarrier'sacquisitionOfViessmannClimateSolutions,reflectedabetonlong-termtrends.Figure 4: Frequentacquirersstayedinthegamethroughoutrecenttimesofturbulence. and continued to conduct M&A through a period of higher interest ratesMostfrequentacquirerscompletedanacquisitionduringCovid-19period.Notes: Bain's value creation study tracks performance (measured by total shareholder return) and acquisition frequency for 2,533 companies over the period between 2012 and 2022; Covid-19 period includes deals between secon