世界经济论坛-二氧化碳去除：最佳实践指南（英）-2024.1.docx

WQRLDECONOMICFQRUMWhatCompaniesCanLearnfromFirstMoversCarbonDioxideRemoval:Best-PracticeGuidelinesWHITEPAPERJANUARY2024Images:Unsplash1GettyImagesContentsPreface3Executivesummary41 Overviewofthechallenge61.1 WhycarbonremovalisessentialtoachievingtheParisgoal61.2 Statusofcarbonremovaltechnologies81.3 Purposeofthisreport82 TheengineeredCDRlandscape92.1 Carbonremovaltechnologiesavailableinthemarket92.2 QualityfeaturesofengineeredCDR123 WhyengageinengineeredCDRnow?143.1 It'sgoodforcorporateclimatestrategy143.2 Itprovidesbusinessopportunities153.3 Leadershipisessential-*waitandsee'isnotanoption173.4 EngineeredCDRbringsco-benefits,too183.5 Amixofnatural-climatesolutionsandengineeredCDRis19needed4 HowtoaessthenascentmarketforengineeredCDR214.1 Howtosecurethebudget214.2 Choosingtherightmarketaccessmodel244.3 CommunicatingCDRperformancein-houseandoutside26thecompanyConclusion28Appendix29Contributors30Endnotes31DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEnomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024CarbonDioxideRemoval:Best-PracticeGuidelinesPrefaceNasimPour1.ead,CarbonRemovalsandMarketInnovation,WorldEconomicForumSofarin2023,theaverageglobaltemperatureonone-thirdofdayshasbeenatleast1.5oChigherthanpre-industriallevels.1AttheendofOctober,scientistswarnedthatwithinjustfiveorsixyears,humanitywouldexceedtheremainingcarbonbudgetrequiredforanevenschanceofkeepingwarmingto1.50C?Yetdespiterepeatedwarningsandthecommitmentof195nationsinParisin2015toreversethisunfoldingclimatecatastrophe,greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise,notfall.Decarbonizingtheglobaleconomyistheprimaryandmostcriticalchallenge.Buthotonitsheelsisanequallypressingpriority:toacceleratetherateatwhichweareremovingexcesscarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere.Evenifeverycountryandeverycompanyachievesnetzeroby2050,itwon'tbeenough.WewillneedtokeepremovingCO2fordecadesafterwards-toreversetheaccumulationofhistoricemissions,tobalanceoutthehardest-to-abateemissionsandtosafeguardusagainstEarth,sownfeedbackloopsfromawarmerworld.Thescaleofthechallengeis,forwantofabetterword,mind-blowing.Upto687billiontonnesofCO2willneedremovingbytheendofthecentury-witharound10billiontonnesayearrequiredby2050.3Currentlyweareremovingaround2billiontonnesofCO2ayearthroughnaturalclimatesolutionssuchasafforestation.Butwecan'tjustrelyontrees,soilsandoceanstodoourdirtyworkforus-notleastbecausewildfiresanddegradationriskreleasingthecarboncapturedbynature.Newsolutionsareneededurgently-technologiesthatcandeliveradditional,permanentandquantifiableimpactsatthespeedandscalerequiredtomakeadifference.Thiswhitepaperexaminesthepromisingpotentialofseveralofthese"engineered"carbondioxideremoval(CDR)technologies,includingbiochar,bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS),directaircapturewithcarbonstorage(DACCS)andenhancedrockweathering(ERW).EachsolutionaimstoclearthehighbaroftheWorldEconomicForum'sFirstMoversCoalition(FMC)-todemonstrateitcancaptureandstorecarbonatscaleandwithhighdurability.TheFMCleveragesthecollectivepurchasingpowerofcompaniestosendacleardemandsignaltoscaleupemergingdecarbonizationtechnologiesthatarecriticaltothenet-zerotransition.Bystimulatingsufficientdemand,theFMCaimstohelpacceleratethecommercializationofthesetechnologiesandultimatelydrivedowntheircost.MembersoftheFMChavecommittedtocontractforatleast50,000tonnes-or$25millionworth-ofdurableandscalableCDRby2030.WeneedmorecorporateleaderssuchasthesetostepuprightnowanddemonstratedemandtothepioneersofengineeredCDR,sotheycangaintheconfidenceandlinesofcreditneededtoinvestinthesepotentiallylife-savingtechnologies.WehaveinterviewedeightFMCmembersfromdifferentindustrysectorstogaintheirinsightsintowhyit'ssoimportanttostartnow,why"waitandsee,'isnotanoption,andhowbesttonavigatethroughthisnascentmarket.ThispaperchartstheirexperienceandcallsoneverycompanytomakeadvancepurchasesofengineeredCDRaspartoftheirwiderclimatestrategy.ExecutivesummaryIn2022,globalemissionswere2billiontonnesmorethanin2015-a5%rise.YetachievingtheParisclimategoalsrequiresadeclineinemissionsof40-60%by2030.Decarbonizing90%oftheglobaleconomyisthepriorityaccordingtotheScienceBasedTargetsinitiative.Theremaining10%willneedtocomefrom"negativeemissions"-capturingCO2fromtheatmosphereandstoringitpermanently,knownascarbondioxideremoval(CDR).CDRisrequiredforthreereasons:1)tocompensateforthoselast10%of"hard-to-abate"emissions;2)todrawdownEarth'sownemissionsfromnaturalfeedbackloopsexacerbatedbyglobalwarming(e.g.forestfires);and3)toreversetheaccumulationofhistoricemissions.By2050,globalemissionsmustreachnetzero,whichmeansremovingupto10billiontonnes(orugigatonnes",Gt)ofCO2fromtheatmosphereeveryyear.Throughoutthesecondhalfofthecentury,globalemissionshavetostaynet-negative(wheremoreCO2isremovedthanemitted).Thisreportisaimedatsustainabilityprofessionals.ItmakesthecaseforengineeredCDRsolutionsandpresentsguidelinesonhowtoenterthenascentremovalsmarket.ItdrawsoninterviewswithmembersoftheFirstMoversCoalition(FMC),whohaveeachcommittedtocontractfor50,000tonnes-or$25millionworth-ofdurable,scalablecarbonremovalby2030.TheengineeredCDRlandscapeBiocharcarbonremoval(BCR):createscharcoalwhenbiomassisheatedwithoutoxygen,enablingthecarboninthebiomasstoresistdecay.BiocharismoreaffordablethanotherengineeredCDRbutislimitedbytheavailabilityofsustainablebiomass.Bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS):burnssustainablebiomasstoproducepowerandheatorprocessesbiomass.TheresultingCO2isstrippedfromthefluegas,compressedandstoredpermanently.Carboncaptureisperformedbythebiomassthroughphotosynthesis.Directaircapturewithcarbonstorage(DACCS):usesfilterstotrapCO2,whichiscompressedandstoredunderground.Itusesasmalllandfootprintandofferspermanentgeologicalstorage,butcostsareveryhigh($600-$1,000tonne),duetothecleanenergyrequired.Enhancedrockweathering(ERW):involvesspreadingforestsoils,croplandsandbeacheswithmineralsthatdissolveinwaterandabsorbCO2,bindingitforhundredsofyears.Uncertaintyremainsaboutthecost,sideeffects,permanenceandscalability.Toremove10GtofCO2ayearby2050requiresrampingupallsolutions,whetherengineeredornature-based.Successdependsonintegrity(deliveringanadditional,permanentandquantifiableimpact)andscalability(fastenoughtomakeadifference).EngineeredCDRscoreshighlyonintegrity.DACCSandBECCSareclearlyadditionalsincethetechnologyisdedicatedtoremovalsandwouldnotexistotherwise.Bothcanstorecarbonundergroundformillennia,whereasnaturalclimatesolutions(NCS)riskreleasingcarbonthroughforestfiresordegradation.EngineeredCDRsolutions,executedinindustrialinstallations,aresimplertoquantify.CurrentCDRtotals2GtCO2yr,ofwhich99.9%comesfromNCS(e.g.afforestation,reforestation).Whileonly0.1%resultsfromengineeredCDR1ithasmorepotentialtoscaleup,becausethespacerequiredforNCSislimitedbyotherlanduses.TheUnitedNationsestimatesthatthemitigationpotentialofengineeredCDRby2050couldtotal62GtCO2yr,comparedto33GtCO2yrforNCS.ThemainconstrainttoscalingupengineeredCDRisthehighcost,whichiswhereprivate-sectorleadershaveanimportantroletoplay.WhyshouldacompanyengageinengineeredCDRnow?Corporateclimatestrategy:engineeredCDR,squalityandscalabilityofferscompaniesgreatercertaintyinmeetingclimatetargetsandmakingcredibleclaimsforoffsettingresidualemissions.TakingaleadinengineeredCDRcanprotectcompaniesfromaccusationsofgreenwashing,whileimprovingreputationandcompetitiveedge.Businessopportunities:companiescanuseexistingexpertisetodevelopnewCDR-relatedbusinessmodels,includinginfrastructuredevelopment,equipmentmanufacturing,plantoperations,consultingortradingCDRcertificates("removals").Co-benefits:cancontributetoajusttransition.Existingfossilfuelinfrastructure(e.g.depletedoilandgasfields,pipelines,industrialclusters)canberepurposedforengineeredCDR,preventingredundanciesorleadingtonewjobs.1.eadership:theworldcannotaffordto"waitandsee,ifnewCDRtechnologieswillfallinprice.DevelopersofengineeredCDRneedearlyadopterswithofftakeagreementsthatguaranteefuturerevenue,enablingdeveloperstoraisemoneytoscaleup.Keepoverallcostofremovalsdown:investinginengineeredCDRnowwillmakeitlessexpensiveinthelongterm,whereasfavouringcheaperNCStodaywilldepletenature-basedsolutions,increasingtheirprice.HowtoaccessthenascentmarketforengineeredCDRSecurethebudgetwithaninternalcarbonprice:SeveralFMCmembershavesetaninternalcarbonpricebasedonwhattheyarepreparedtopayforthedurationoftheCDRengagementperiod.Disclosedpricesrangefrom$80to$200/tC02by2030.Thisstrategyhasadvantages:itremovestheuncertaintyofannualbudgetrequests;transparencyonpricesendsacleardemandsignaltoCDRdevelopers;itallowsthecompanytoenterlong-termofftakeagreements;and,importantly,thehighertheinternalcarbonprice,themoreacompanywillprioritizeemissionreductionsoverCDR.OtherFMCmembershavesetagoalthatcombinesatargetbudgetandvolumeofremovalsperyear.Choosetherightmarketaccessmodel:-Directdeal-makingwithCDRdevelopers:allowsbuyerstonegotiatetheexactcontractterms,butcomeswithsubstantialtransactionaleffort.Suitedtolargecompanieswithbigofftakevolumeslookingtobuildin-housecompetencyandrelationshipswithstrategicpartners.-Buyers'club:aggregatesdemandfromindividualbuyersintoamanagedportfolioofengineeredCDR.Memberssignonecontractwiththeintermediaryandsecurediversifiedremovalsatcompetitiveprices.Suitableforcompaniessourcingsmallervolumesthroughlong-termofftakes.-Over-the-counterpurchases:whereengineeredCDRcertificatesaretradedamongsuppliers,brokersandbuyers.Pricespertonneareoftenfixedandcarryheavyoverheads,buttransactionsarefast,low-effortandflexible.-Consultants:forcompanieswithlimitedexperienceofCDR,whocanseeksupportfromaspecialistconsultanttoprovidetechnicaladviceonaccessroutesandhelpbuildameaningfulstrategy.Communicationstrategy:ThepaperpresentsexamplesofhowFMCmembershavecommunicatedtheirCDRactionsin-houseandexternally,underliningtheimportanceofseekingthebroadestbuy-in.OverviewofthechallengeNetzeroby2050isnotthefinaldestination.Thereafter5globalemissionswillneedtobecomenet-negative-andcarbonremovalsoffertheonlypathwaytothatgoal.1.1WhycarbonremovalisessentialtoachievingtheParisgoalBy 2050, nearly10 billiontonnes of CO2 mayhave to be removedfrom the atmosphereannuallyThespeedatwhichtheplanetiswarmingiscurrentlygreaterthanthespeedatwhichtheglobalenomyisreducingitsemissions.SinceDecember2015-thedatewhen195nationssignedthelegallybindingParisAgreementtopursue"effortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5abovepre-industriallevels"4-netgreenhousegasemissionshavenotfallenbutrisen,despiteaCOVID-19-inducedblip.Lastyear,totalestimatedemissionswerenearly2billiontonnesmorethanin2015-anincreaseofroughly5%.5AccordingtotheUnitedNations(UN)IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)1achievingthegoalenvisionedintheParisagreementwillrequireadeclineinglobalnetanthropogenicCO2emissionsof40-60%by2030(comparedto2010),enroutetonetzeroby2050.6Toachievethis2030targetmeansreducingemissionsbythepandemic-levelequivalentofa7%dropeveryyear(seeFigure1).Decarbonizingthewayhumanitylives,travels,makesthingsandconsumesthemisthetoppriority.AccordingtotheScienceBasedTargetsinitiative(SBTi),companiesneedtoreducetheabsoluteemissionsoftheirvaluechainsbyatleast90%.Remainingemissionsmustberemovedoruneutralized"throughpermanentcarbondioxideremoval(CDR),notthroughconventionalcarbonavoidancecertificates.AsperSBTi,sCorporateNet-ZeroStandard,uacompanyisonlynsideredtohavereachednet-zerowhenithasachieveditslong-termscience-basedtargetandneutralizedanyresidualemissions".7Eachofthefourumodelpathways"presentedbytheIPCCinits2018specialreportGlobalWarmingof1.5qCdependsuponsomedegreeofCDR.8Thisprocessisalsoknownas"negativeemissions"andittakestheworldbeyondnetzerotoapointwheremoreCO2needstoberemovedthanisbeingemitted.ThepredictedvolumesofCDRthatwillbeneededareeye-watering.EvenforthetwomoremoderateIPCCscenarios,cumulativecarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)intherealmof348-687billiontonneswillbeneededbytheendofthecentury.9By2050,nearly10billiontonnesofCO2mayhavetoberemovedfromtheatmosphereannually,acrdingtothemedianestimatesofseveraloftheIPCCsnet-zeroscenarios.10CDRisrequiredforthreereasons:- Tompensateforuhard-to-abatenemissions(thelast10%inSBTi,sCorporateNet-ZeroStandard)necessarytodeliverauthenticnetzero- TodrawdowntheEarth'sownemissionsresultingfromthenaturalfeedbackloopsofawarmingplanet,suchasforestfiresormethaneescapingfrommeltingpermafrost- ToreversetheaccumulationofhistoricemissionsThislastcaseissignificant.Since1990,theyearwhentheIPCCpublisheditsfirstreport,humanityhasemittedmoregreenhousegasesthaninallrecordedhistorybeforethatdate.11Tobegintorestoretheclimate,theseaccumulatedemissionsneedtoberemoved-permanently.Thatmeansnetzeroby2050isnotthefinaldestination.Frommid-centryonwards,globalemissionswillneedtobecomenet-negative-andCDRofferstheonlypathwaytothatgoal(seeFigure2).Since1990,humanityhasemittedmoregreenhousegasesthaninallrecordedhistorybeforethatdate.InstituteforEuropeanEnvironmentalPolicyFigures1and2summarizewhatneedstohappentoachievetheParisAgreementgoals:- Halveemissionsby2030- Net-zeroemissionsby2050- Net-negativeemissionsafter2050FIGURE 1TheemissionstrajectoryneededtodeliverthegoalsoftheParisAgreementNotes:1.AssumesGHGemissionsreboundandgrowfrom2020atthesamerateasthecurrentpoliciesscenarioinUNEP2019Gapreportto2050(1.1%CAGR);2.AssumesuntriesdecarbonizefurtheratthesameraterequiredtoachievetheirNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)between2020and2030;3.Assumes25%reductionby2030andnetzeroby2070;4.Assumes45%reductionby2030andnetzeroby2050;5.ParisAgreementgoalsaretolimitglobalwarmingto2.0oC,preferably1.5oC.Figuresexcludelanduse,land-usechangesandforestry.Source:WorldEconomicForum'2FIGURE2Beyondnetzero-negativeemissionsrequiredthroughcarbonremovalsGlobalgreenhousegasemissions(billiontonnesCO2eperyear)BusinessasusalemissionsNet-emissionspathtolimitglobalwarmingto1.5oCResidualgrossemissionsthatcantyetbereducedNegativeemissionsrequiredto:- Balancehardto-reduceemissions- Reversethebuildupofhistoricemissions- BalanceEarth'sownemissions(e.g.forestfires)Medianestimateof10billiontonnesCO2eyrtoberemovedandstored/OACCarbonremoval=nexttrillion-dollarindustryxIIbr乙UOUNote:Differentemissionsscenariosrequiredifferentquantitiesofcarbondioxideremovalbasedontimingandquantityofgrossemissionsreductions.Source:WorldEconomicForum'31.2Statusofcarbonremovaltechnologie