世界银行-宜居星球的就业机会：清洁能源转型创造就业机会的潜力（英）.docx

PublieDiscIosureAuthorizedP b lie Di scIo su re A ut ho riz edJOBSFORA1.IVABLEPLANETJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransitionESMAPTHEWORLDBANKlRD-IDAREPORTJOBSFORA1.IVABLEPLANETJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransitionZuzanaDobrotkovaSheoliPargalNicolasFichauxESMAP耳口THEWORLDBANKABOUTESMAPTheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankandover20partnerstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ESMAP,sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBank'scountryfinancingandpolicydialogueintheenergysector.ThroughtheWorldBank,ESMAPworkstoacceleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(SDG7),whichensuresaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodemenergyforall.IthelpsshapeWoridBankstrategiesandprogramstoachievetheWorldBank'sClimateChangeActionPlantargets.Learnmoreat:https:/www.esmap.org.©December2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgThisworkisaproductoftheWorldBank,withcontributionsgivenbythestaffandconsultantslistedintheacknowledgments.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheacracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONSThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:/creativecommons.orglicensesby3.0igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution-Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP).2023.JobsforaLivablePlanet:JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition.Washington,DC:TheWorldBank.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations-Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.AdaptationsIfyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-PartyContent-TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentntainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythirdparty-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ProductionCredits一DesignerCircleGraphics,Inc.CoverImage©WorldBankPhotosp.xxiv©EnricoFabianZWorIdBank,p.4©WorldBank,p.16,p.76,p.84©Florio,p.30©EXAStudio/WorldBank,p.62©CelineFerreZWorIdBankAllimagesremainthesolepropertyoftheirsourceandmaynotbeusedforanypurposewithoutwrittenpermissionfromthesource.ContentsAcknowledgmentsviiAboutthisReportviiiAbbreviationsixGlossaryxKeyFindingsxiiExecutiveSummaryxv1. WhyAssesstheEmploymentImpactsoftheCleanEnergyTransition?12. EmploymentImpactsoftheEnergyTransition:WhatDoWeKnow?52.1. Definitions52.2. GlobalAnalyses72.3. KeyConsiderationsinAssessingJobImpacts92.4. ReviewoftheLiteratureandMethodologiesUsed113. EconomywideEmploymentImpactsofCleanEnergyInvestmentsinDevelopingEconomies173.1. SetupoftheCGEModelUsedandScenariosStudied18Scenario1:IncreaseinRenewableElectricityGeneration19Scenario2:IncreaseinRegionalElectricityTrade20Scenario3:IncreaseintheReliabilityofPowerSupply20Scenario4:ImprovementsinDemand-SideEnergyEfficiency213.2. ImpactsofDifferentScenariosonRealGDP,LaborDemand,andWages213.3. EstimatesofEconomywideJobCreation253.4. SummaryofEconomywideModelingResults274. DirectandIndirectJobCreation:FindingsfromSevenCaseStudies314.1. SummaryDescriptionsoftheCaseStudies364.2. QuantificationofDirectandIndirectEmploymentImpacts384.3. SkillsRequirements,LocalHiringMandates,andTransferabilityofSkills424.4. AttractivenessofSustainableEnergyJobs514.5. GenderBalance544.6. CleanEnergyJobs:AProfileBasedonCaseStudies58615. TheJobTransitionforCoalPowerPlantWorkers5.1. RepurposingCoalPowerPlants625.2. TheWorkforceinCoal-FiredPowerPlants645.3. PossibleJobTransitionPathways655.4. TheBottomLineonTransitioningfromBrowntoGreen:NotaSimpleMatter716. TheEffectoftheEnergyTransitiononInducedJobs756.1. AssessmentofProductiveUsesofElectricityfromMiniGridsinNigeria766.2. InducedEmploymentinIndia,Malawi,andPeru766.3. EconomywideInducedJobsinRwanda786.4. ToUnderstandInducedJobs:MoreRigorousEvaluationOverLongerPeriods807. ConclusionsandRecommendations83References91ListofFigures,Tables,andBoxesFiguresFigureES.1.SharesofSkilled,Semiskilled,andUnskilledDirectJobsintheStudiedProjectsxviiiFigure1.1.GlobalEnergySectorJobsUnderaRangeofScenarios,2019and20301Figure 2.1. GlobalEmploymentinSelectedEnergySubsectors,20228Figure 2.2. GlobalRenewableEnergyEmployment,byTechnology,2012-218Figure 2.3. VaryingScopesofEmploymentImpactAssessmentsforCoalandRenewableEnergyZEnergyEfficiencyInstallations10Figure 3.1. ElectricityGenerationintheBaselineandScenarios1and2,byCountry,2021and203019Figure 3.2. ChangesinRealGDPin2030intheFourScenarios,byCountry22Figure 3.3. ChangesinRealWagesofUnskilledandSkilledWorkers,byScenarioandCountry,203023FigureB.4.1.1.ProjectedIndirectJobsCreatedbytheAmanProjectinMauritania32Figure 4.1. ShareofDirectandIndirectJobsinCaseStudyProjects39Figure 4.2. SharesofSkilled,Semiskilled,andUnskilledDirectJobsintheStudiedProjects42Figure 4.3. TotalDirectEmployees(Full-TimeEquivalent)PerOrganizationInvolvedintheRusumoProject47FigureB.4.3.1.ProfessionsNeededinaTypicalValueChainforaRenewableEnergyProject50Figure 5.1. AnExampleofSuggestedRepurposingofMiningLands63Figure 5.2. DistributionDensityPlotsofNumeracy,Literacy,andProblem-SolvingSkillsRequiredinGreenandBrownJobsinPoland66Figure 5.3. AnalysisofPotentialJobTransitionsforaDisplacedMechatronicsEngineerinPoland66Figure7.1.OverarchingTheoryofChangeforCleanEnergyInterventions88TablesTableES.1.TotalJobCreationAssessedintheCaseStudies(Full-TimeEquivalents)xviiTableES.2.Salaries.Wages,andWorkingConditionsintheProjectsStudiedxviiiTable2.1.ComparisonofMethodologiesUsedtoAssessEmploymentImpactoftheGreenTransition12Table3.1.EstimatedChangeinElectricityGenerationandNumberofDirectNewJobsCreatedintheElectricitySector,byScenarioandCountry,203024TableB3.1.1.EmploymentEquivalenttoChangeinRealGDP,byScenarioandCountry26Table 4.1. TotalJobCreationAssessedintheCaseStudies(Full-TimeEquivalents)39Table 4.2. DefinitionsofDirect,Indirect,andInducedJobsinCaseStudies41Table 4.3. SkillsandEnablingFrameworksforLocalizationofSkilledJobsDirectlyCreatedbytheEnergyTransition,byProject43Table 4.4. SkillsandEnablingFrameworksforLocalizationofUnskilledJobsDirectlyCreatedbytheEnergyTransition,byProject45Table 4.5. TransferabilityoftheWorkforce,DirectSkilledJobs47Table 4.6. TransferabilityoftheWorkforce,DirectUnskilledJobs48Table 4.7. Salaries,Wages,andWorkingConditionsintheProjectsUnderStudy52Table 4.8. GenderAspectsofJobsCreatedbytheProjectsUnderStudy54BoxesBox3.1.EmploymentEquivalenttoChangesinRealGDP25Box4.1.ExpectedJobCreationinMauritaniaforaGreenHydrogenProject32Box4.2.ExpectedJobCreationinOffshoreWindIndustryandLeveragingExperiencefromOffshoreOilandGasJobs33Box4.3.PreparingSkilledLaborfortheCleanEnergyTransition49Box4.4.GettingtoGenderEqualityintheEnergySector56Box5.1.RegionalDifferencesinWorkPreferencesAcrossPoland68Box5.2.TheDifficultiesofRetrainingPolishCoalWorkerstoWorkonRenewableEnergyProjects69Box5.3.WorkingTowardaJustTransitionforWorkersLaidOfffromSouthAfrica'sKomatiCoal-FiredPowerPlant70Box7.1.WhatistheTOCofaCleanEnergyProject?86AcknowledgmentsThisworkwasmadepossiblebytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withfinancialsupportfromtheRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairsofDenmark.ESMAPisapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand19donorstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ThereportwaspreparedbyZuzanaDobrotkova(SeniorEnergySpecialist),SheoliPargal(LeadEnergyEconomist),andNicolasFichaux(SeniorEnergyConsultant).TheworkwasinitiatedundertheguidanceofRohitKhanna(PracticeManager,ESMAP)andcompletedunderGabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager,ESMAP),withoverallstrategicdirectionprovidedbyDemetriosPapathanasiou(GlobalDirector,EnergyandExtractivesGlobalPractice).Theteamacknowledgestheimportantinputs,insightsandassistancereceivedfromSudeshnaGhoshBanerjee(RegionalDirector),UlrikeLehr(SeniorEconomist),TuChiNguyen(SeniorEnergyEconomist),AndersPedersen(SeniorEnergySpecialist),NathyeliAcunaCastillo(GenderSpecialist)andAnnaAghababyan(SeniorOperationsOfficer)andWorldBankconsultantsStephaniePinnington1andKavitaRai.Editor:StevenKennedy.AboutthisReportThisreportpresentsthefindingsandconclusionsofaprogramofanalyticalworkundertakentoinvestigatetheimpactsoftheglobaltransitiontocleanenergyonthequantityandqualityofjobsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Undertheprogram,entitled“EstimatingtheJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition,"theWorldBank'sEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)undertookmultiplestreamsofanalysis: Areviewoftheliteratureandcommonlyusedmethodologiesofinvestigation(WorldBank2023a) ModelingofeconomywidejobimpactsofpoliciessupportingthecleanenergytransitioninselectedcountriesinSub-SaharanAfrica(WorldBank2023b) CasestudiesoftheeffectsonemploymentofselectedWorldBankcleanenergyprojects(WorldBank2023d;WorldBank2023e;WorldBank2023f;WorldBank2023g;WorldBank2023h;WorldBank2023i;WorldBank20231) Deepdivesintotheimpactonjobsofclosureofcoal-firedpowerplants(WorldBank2023j);ofproductiveusesofelectricityassociatedwithminigridsinNigeria(WorldBank2023k);andoftheRusumoFallsHydropowerProject(WorldBank2023c).Inadditiontothisreport,buildingontheabove-mentionedstreamsofanalysis,theprogramhasproducedadiscussionpapertosupportprojectdesign,ttTrackingJobsinProjectsFocusedonCleanEnergyandProductiveUsesofElectricityn(WorldBank2023m).ThenoteprovidesstrategiesfortrackingandenhancingjobcreationthatcanbeusedintheWorldBankGroup,scleanenergylendingoperations.Italsodocumentsthejobcreationbenefitsofthediversesetofprojectsexaminedinthecasestudiesabove.Thereportsunderthisprogramtogetheraimtosupportlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesinreapinggreatersocioeconomicbenefitsfromtheenergytransitionbysupportingtheminincreasingthenumberandqualityoflocaljobsgeneratedwhileimplementingcleanenergyprojects.Thereportstargetmultipleaudiences,frompolicymakerstodevelopmentpractitionersandacademics.Theyalsoaimtofamiliarizeenergyspecialistswiththeeffectsofenergyprojectsonjobsandgivethemtoolsthatenablethemtotakeaccountof-and,wherepossible,maximizethesocioeconomicbenefitsofthecleanenergytransition.Reapingthebenefitsofthejobscreatedbycleanenergyinterventionswilldependoneffectiveplanningandpreparationintheearlystagesofprojectsandsustainedsupportduringtheirimplementation.AbbreviationsCGEDPOsDRE EEcomputablegeneralequilibriumDevelopmentPolicyOperationsdistributedrenewableenergyenergyefficiencyEJETPEskomJustEnergyTransitionProjectEPMElectricityPlanningModelESMAPEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgramFTEfull-timeequivalentGDPgrossdomesticproductGHGgreenhousegasesIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIOinput-outputIRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency1.ADPLocalAreaDevelopmentPlanMWmegawattO&MoperationandmaintenancePIAACProgrammefortheInternationalAssessmentofAdultCompetenciesPUEproductiveuseofelectricityPVphotovoltaicsRErenewableenergyT&DtransmissionanddistributionVREvariablerenewableenergyAllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$,USD),unlessotherwiseindicated.GlossaryDirectjobsJobsassociatedwiththedesign,development,management,ConstructionZinstaIIation,andmaintenanceofprojectsandprojectfacilities.EmploymentfactorsFull-timeequivalentAjobs-per-megawattemploymentcalculation.Thenumberofhoursconsideredfull-timework.Forexample,ifacompanyconsiders40hoursfulltime,thentwoemployeesworking20hoursperweekwouldequal1.0full-timeequivalent(FTE).IndirectjobsJobsassociatedwiththemanufacturingofequipmentandmaterialsusedforafacility,thesupplychainthatprovidestherawmaterialsandservicesneededforthemanufacturingprocess,andthefinanceandbankingsectorsthatprovideservicesfortheconstructionandoperationofafacility.InducedjobsJobscreatedduetothespendingofearningsbypersonsdirectlyandindirectlyemployedbyaproject.Inducedjobscanalsostemfromincreasedspendingusingconsumersavingsachievedthankstoenergyefficiency,thecostcompetitivenessofrenewablesorjobsstemmingfromproductiveusesofelectricityfromnewlyacquiredenergyaccess.LocaldevelopmentAmultidimensionalconceptofchangebringingtogethereconomic,social,cultural,andenvironmentaldimensions.Localdevelopmentmaybeseenasamethodthathelpsimprovequalityoflife,supportingoracceleratingtheempowermentofpeople,developingorpreservinglocalassets,strengtheningcohesion,anddefininganddeliveringgrassrootsdevelopmentprojects.On-the-jobtrainingAtrainingapproachbywhichtraineesacquiretheskillsandcompetenciesneededforajobinanactualworkplaceenvironment.Quasi-naturalexperimentQuasi-naturalexperimentsrefertoserendipitoussituationsinwhicheconomicagentsarerandomlyassignedtotreatmentorcontrolgroups,approximatingtherandomizeddesignofawell-controlledexperimentandallowingcausalinference.PieceratecontractApieceratecontractreferstopaymentperunitofworkratherthanperunitoftime.GLOSSARYRandomizedcontroltrialsTherandomizedcontroltrialisatrialinwhichsubjectsarerandomlyassignedtooneoftwogroups:one(theexperimentalgroup)receivingtheinterventionthatisbeingtested,andtheother(thecomparisongrouporcontrol)receivin