世界银行-全球灾后损失评估（GRADE）报告：阿富汗赫拉特6.3级地震序列2023年10月（英）..docx

PZOJZ<alnso-osQo=qnd©GFDRR W醺逊吧”Mw 6.3 Herat Earthquake Sequence in Afghanistan, October 2023JapanGov1H CXMfcHMlNl L AT¼pzoq< alnsoosQo=qnQ-pzzo号< alnsoosQ-qndQq_qndARTFFGlobalRApidPost-DisasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)ReportDisclaimer©2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:Internet:WWW.woddbank.orgThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankandtheGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRevery(GFDRR)withexternalcontributions.Thefindings,analysisandnclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentdonotnecessarilyreflectteviewsofanyindividualpartnerorganizationofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.AlthoughteWorldBankandGFDRRmakereasonableeffortstoensureallteinformationpresentedinthisdocumentisrrect,itsaccuracyandintegritycannotbeguaranteed.Useofanydataorinformationfromtisdocumentisattheuser'sownriskandundernocircumstancesshalltheWorldBank,GFDRRoranyofitspartnersbeliableforanyloss,damage,liabilityorexpenseincurredorSUfferedwhichisdaimedtoresultfromrelianceonthedatacontainedinthisdocument.Theboundaries,colors,denomination,andotherinformationshowninanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONSThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven.GlobalRApidPost-DisasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)ReportMw6.3HeratEarthquakeSequenceinAfghanistan,October2023AcknowledgementsThisreportwaspreparedbyaWorldBankteamledbyRashminGunasekera(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery-GFDRR)andOscarAnilIshizawaEscudero(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,GFDRR).TheteamiscomprisedofJamesDaniellzAntoniosPomoniszJohannesBrand,AndreasSchaefer,BanKhazai,RoberthRomero,MarieJohannaGuthzDianaCubasandKerriCoxoftheGFDRR,sGlobalProgramforDisasterRiskAnalyticsandtheWorldBank'sDisasterResilienceAnalyticsandSolutions(D-RAS)team.EditorialsupportwasprovidedbyL.Lau.TheassessmentreceivedfinancialsupportfromGFDRRzAfghanistanResilienceTrustFund(ARTF)zandtheMinistryofFinanceofJapanthroughtheJapan-WorldBankProgramforMainstreamingDisasterRiskManagementinDevelopingCountries.WealsothankthepeerreviewersfromtheWorldBankPhilippPeterman(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,SMNUR)andJianVun(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,SEAUl).TheteamgratefullyacknowledgestheguidanceandcontributionofthefollowingWorldBankcolleagues:MelindaGood(CountryDirector,SACKB);AbhasJha(PracticeManager,SSACD);NielsB.Holm-Nielsen(PracticeManager,GFDRR);AbedalrazqF.Khalil(PracticeManager,SSAUl);OlivierLavinal(ProgramLeaderforSustainableDevelopment,SSADR);Yunziyi(Lisa)Lang(ClimateChangeSpecialist,SSACD);ElifAyhan(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,SSACD);TahirAkbar(SeniorUrbanSpecialist,SACUl);IguniwariThomasEkeu-Wei(ClimateChangeSpecialist,SSACD);CarinaFonsecaFerreira(DisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,SSACD);EfremFerrari(Consultant,SSACD);ZoeEenaTrohanis(LeadDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,GFDRR);MirthaLilianaEscobar(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,GFDRR);MaryElinorBoyer(DisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,GFDRR);LaraSophieMahaLoussert(Consultant,GFDRR);PolNadalCros(Consultant;GFDRR);KeikoSaito(SeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,GFDRR);MikaIwasaki(SeniorProgramOcer,GFDRR);YokoKobayashi(SeniorExternalAffairsOcerzGFDRR),PatriciaAnneJaner(Consultant,GCSIMA);ElenaKaraban(Manager,ECRSA);DianaYa-WaiChung(SeniorExternalAffairsOcerzECRSA);andAbdullahYadgare(ExternalAffairsOcerzECRSA).Abbreviations11.0ExecutiveSummary11.1KeyHighlights12.1 Introduction42.1 EventCharacteristicsandDescriptions42.2 HumanandSectoralImpactofEarthquakeinAfghanistan52.3 Fragility,Conflict,andViolence(FCV)Context82.4 Socio-economicVulnerabilityandConsiderations92.2 Post-DisasterRapidDamageEstimationMethodology123.1 Methodology123.2 BuildingBackBetterConsiderations154.0ResultsandInterpretation164.1SummaryofResults161O4.2 InterpretationofResultsandImpacts4.3 BriefComparisontotheGFDRRMulti-HazardRiskAssessment(MHRA)Profile205.0Conclusions225.1 EventSummary225.2 DamageCosts22References23Annex A: DevelopmentofSocialVulnerabilityIndex24Annex B: DataSources28AnnexCiAfghanistanExposureModel30AnnexD:HistoricalEarthqaukesinAfghanistan31Abbreviationscso：CentralStatisticsOceD-RAS:EMS:EMSC:Disaster-ResilienceAnalytics&SolutionsTeam,GPURL,WorldBankEuropeanMacroseismicIntensityScaleEuropean-MediterraneanSeismologicalCentreFAO:GFDRR:GPRL:GRADE:FoodandAgricultureOrganizationGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecoveryUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,ResilienceandLandGlobalPracticeGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimationICT:InformationandCommunicationTechnologyIDP:A:MHRA:InternallyDisplacedPersonInterimTalibanAdministrationMulti-HazardRiskAssessmentMw:MomentMagnitudeMMI:ModifiedMercalliIntensityNGOs:Non-GovernmentalOrganizationsNSIA:NationalStatisticsandInformationAgencyOSM:PDNA:SoVI:OpenStreetMapPost-DisasterNeedsAssessmentSocialVulnerabilityIndexTEV:TotalExposureValueUNOCHA:UNOSAT:USGS:USG:UnitedNationsOcefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairsUnitedNationsSatelliteCentreUnitedStatesGeologicalSurveyUnitedStatesDollarsWASH:Water,Sanitation,andHygieneWFP:WorldFoodProgrammeWHO:WorldHealthOrganization1.0ExecutiveSummaryFollowingtheHeratprovince(WesternAfghanistan)earthquakesequenceofOctober7to15z2023,theWorldBankcarriedoutaremotedesk-basedassessmentofthephysicaldamagesusingtheGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)methodology.Global RApid post-disaster Damage EStimatton (GRADE) approach developed at the Worid Bank and nducted by the Global Practice for Urban, Disaster Risk Management Resilience and Land (GPURL) Disaster-Resilience Analytics & Solutions (D-RAS) Knsvledge Silo Breaker (KSB). The methodology aims to address specific damage information needs in the first few weeks after a major disaster See https:/ZWWwlgfdn,orgSitesZdefaUItZfIleS/PutHkatiQiVDRAS-Web-O41Z2018,Pdf for details of the methodology. Up to present, over 40 different GRADE assessments have been ducted and experience so far has Shown that, on average, the estimated damages are above 80 percent accurate relative to detailed on ground assessments that follow in the weeks and months after a disaster.Theobjectiveoftheassessmentistodevelopamodel-basedestimateofthedirectphysical(economic)damages'Direct physical damage is quantified using the gross capital stock, which is the replacement cost of an asset, if newly rebuilt, based on current unit costs and consta>ction practices in the affected region. Replacement st does not include fixed/mobile industry capital, transport equipment, household contents, commercial stock contents etctoresidentialbuildings(houses),non-residentialbuildings(e.g.zeducation,health,worship,commercial,industrialassets)andinfrastructure(e.g.,transport,powerzwater,telecommunications),andtoevaluatethespatialdistributionofdamagesinordertosupportthedevelopmentofaroadmapforrecoveryandreconstruction.Thisreportsummarizesthekeyfindingsoftheassessment.Impactsofconcurrentorsecondaryhazardssuchaslandslidesweresmallandthusnotevaluatedinthisreport.Theassessmentbenefittedfromdamagedataandreportsfrompublicsources,suchastheUnitedNationsOcefortheCrdinationofHumanitarianAffairs(UNOCHA)zWorldHealthOrganization(WHO),UnitedNationsSatelliteCentre(UNOSAT)zandCopernicusSatelliteDerivedDamageAssessments,aswellasinformationfrominternationalandlocalNon-GovernmentalOrganizations(NGOs)zandMiyamotoInternational.Thisassessmentcouldpotentiallyinformtheenvisionedpost-disasterdamageandneedsassessment(PDNA)forthisevent.1.1 KeyHighlights TheOctober7to15,2023earthquakesequenceoffoureventsofthesamemagnitude(MW6.3)affected11districtsincludingZindajan,Gulran,Injel,Kushk(Rabat-e-Sangai),Guzara,Ghoryan,Karukh,Kushk-e-Kuhna,Herat,Pashtonzarghon,andKohsan;allofwhichbelongtotheHeratprovince.DistrictsofHeratandInjelaloneaccountforhalfoftheaffectedresidents. ThecombinedearthquakesfromOctober7to15resultedin1,482fatalitiesand2,100injuries,directlyaffecting154,000people(UNOCHAOctober20update),upfromanearlierestimateof43,400people,whichhadalsomentionedthatnearly23%ofthesewerechildrenundertheageoffive.Around114z000individualsrequireurgenthumanitarianassistance. Thetotalestimatedcostofdirectphysicaldamagestobuildings(residentialandnon-residential)andinfrastructureandlivestock/agricultureisapproximatelyUSs314million(equivalenttoapproximately2.2%oftheAfghanistanGDPin2021)(Table1).Economiclossesarereportedintermsofcapitaldamages,estimatedviatheGRADEmethodology.Itisimportanttonotethatthisestimatecoversonlythereplacementcostofbuildingstructures.Itdoesnotacuntforcostsofreplacementofcontentsinbothresidentialandnon-residentialstructures.Additionally,itexcludescostsrelatedtoreconstructionorbuildingbackbetter,orfurtherdevelopmentinthearea.Moreover,itdoesnottakeintoaccountfactorslikeproductioninterruption,incomeloss,temporaryhousing/relocationexpenses,anddemolitioncosts.Lastly,theimpactofconcrrent/secondaryhazardssuchasrainfall/landslideswerenegligibleandwerenotfactoredin. TheGRADEassessmentshowsthatthemedianestimateddamagescalculatedforbothresidentialandnon-residentialbuildingstockarenearlyequal,eachamountingtoapproximatelyUSsI25million.Followingcloselyaredamagestoinfrastructureandagriculture,whichtotaledUSG64.4million.AhighlevelOfvulnerabilityoftheresidentialbuildingstockwasalsoobserved,withveryhighdamageratiosforresidentialbuildings(highestratioinZindajanat37.9%).'In the assessment, the "Residential" sector encompasses housing, graifodder storage, and, in some cases, Ihrestock shelters and household infrastrcturenections. The 'Non-Residential" sector includes a wide range of structures such as private, public, and commercial buildings, schools, hospitals, ciinks/health centers, public administration buildings, mosques, agricultural warehouses/larger shelters, and industrial buildings or warehouses. R also encompasses mixed-use facilities where both mmerdal and residential activities occur. Lastly, the "Infrastructure* category covers transport infrastructure (e.g., roads, railways, bridges), critical power and water infrastructure (power plants, pipelines, PoWer networks, transmission lines, water structures), and ICT infrastructure (communications, cables, towers, TV, radio, etc.). Additionally, this category includes agricultural components such as the stocks of fodder, livestock, and machinery.Incontrast,thedamageratiofornon-residentialbuildingsisnotablylowerduetobetterconstructionquality(13.7%inZindajan).Similarly,estimateddamagestoinfrastructurearealsolowerandreachapproximately9.5%ofthebaselineinfrastructureexposureintheZindajandistrict.Table1:Directphysicaleconomicdamagebysectoranddistrict/provinceinabsolutevalues(inUS$millions).District/ProvinceResidentialNon-ResidentialInfrastructure/TotalMedianInjel(Herat)37.338.019.294.4Herat(Herat)29.132.911.673.6Zindajan(Herat)9.19.115.133.2Kushk(Herat)9.310.75.325.3Ghoryan(Herat)7.48.53.919.8Guzara(Herat)9.17.62.519.2Gulran(Herat)6.75.92.915.4Karukh(Herat)3.03.21.57.7Pashtonzarghon(Herat)3.42.60.86.7Kushk-e-Kuhna(Herat)2.11.70.54.4Kohsan(Herat)1.81.30.43.6OtherDistricts(Herat)3.42.70.66.6BadghisProvince2.81.10.34FarahProvince<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1GhorProvince<0.1<0.1<0.1<0,1Total124.5125.164.4314.0 Housinginearthquake-affecteddistrictssufferedseveredamageduetopredominantlynon-resilientconstruction,with90%usingvulnerablepakshaand10%khama-khashtaconstruction.Lackofstonefoundationsandplinthcoursesexacerbatedvulnerabilitytoseismicforces.Structuralcollapsewasofteninstantanus,particularlyimpactingwomen,children,andtheelderlyasthefirstearthquakestruckatll:llamwhenmostmenwereoutdrs.Mp1:Spatialdistributionoftotaldirectdamagesatdistrictlevel.TotalDirectDamagebyDistrictinUS$million<2O>2-5El>5-io>10-25 >25-50 >50-75 >75ICountryboundaryProvinceboundaryi1Districtboundary2QIntrodUCtion2.1 EventCharacteristicsandDescriptionTheHeratProvinceinWesternAfghanistanwassignificantlyaffectedbyaseriesoffourshallowearthquakes,allwiththesamemomentmagnitude(Mw)6.3zaccompaniedbyrecurringaftershockssinceOctober7,2023.TheinitialtwoMw6.3earthquakesstruckaround40kmnorthwestofthecityofHeratonOctober7at11:11and11:42amlocaltime,followedbynumerousaftershocks.TwomoreMw6.3earthquakesoccurredonOctober11and15zfurtherimpactingthesameareas.Allfoureventswereshallowwithfocaldepthsof6to14kmzaccordingtotheUnitedStatesGeoIogicaISurvey(USGS).TheepicentersofthefourearthquakeswerelocatedwithintheHeratregion,thethird-highestseismichazardzoneinAfghanistan(Waseemetal.,2019)zwhichhadremainedrelativelyunaffectedbystrongearthquakesforanextendedperiod.TectonicallyztheHeratregionisdominatedbythe730-km-longHariRudfault.ThisfaultstretchesfromitsintersectionwiththeChamanfaultnorthofKabulandextendswestwardacrosstheGhorandHeratprovincestotheIranianborder.TheOctober2023earthquakeeventswerethedeadliestinAfghanistansincetheMay30z1998earthquakethatimpacteddistrictsinBadakhshanandTakharprovinces(killingaround4,600peopleandinjuring12,000).Since1920zsevenotherearthquakesofmagnitude6orlarger(anduptomagnitude7.3)occurredwithin250kmoftheaffectedregion,allwithinIran.HistoriceventscausingdamageintheHeratregion,andPOssibIycenteredwithintheprovince,includethosein849zl102and1364AD.ProbabilisticseismichazardassessmentsfortheareahadbeenprimarilyinfluencedbysubstantialearthquakesoccurringacrosstheIranianborder.ExamplesincludethedevastatingMw7.3ArdekulearthquakeonMay10z1997zthatresultedinatleast1,567fatalities,includingfivepeopleinAfghanistan,andtheMw6.6and7.1Ghaenat(Khorasan)earthquakesonNovember14and27z1979thatcausedaminimumof300CasuaItiesinIran.ForthepurposesofthisGRADEreport,acustomShakeMapwasdevelopedtobetterillustratethereportedimpactsofthefourearthquakes.Figure1depictsthecompositeeventShakeMap7completewithacolor-codedscaleindicatingtheseverityofshakinginModifiedMercalliIntensity(MMI)scalezones,rangingfrom"violente×tremelydamaging"to"severe/verydamaging"and"verystrong/damaging"groundmotion,rrespondingtomacroseismicintensitiesIX,VIIIzandVIIontheMMIscale,respectively.TheepicentersofthefourMw6.3earthquakesarealsoshown.Figure1:RecreatedcompositeMMI(ModifiedMercalliIntensity)ShakemapoftheOctober5to17,2023earthquakesequenceinHeratprovince(WesternAfghanistan).Itshowstheseismicshaking'sspatialdistribution.Thebrown/darkorangelocationscorrespondtoseveregroundshakingintensitiesVllandVIILTheepicentersareshownasredbulletswiththeoccurrenced