世界银行-提高公平和包容性财政政策的门槛-财政发生率分析老挝2023年10月（英）..docx

pzzou< msoosQO=qnj/)THEWORLDBANKLJJfBADaIwou>BmkoicupPaz_0号<JnsoosQO一q11dRaisingtheBarTowardanEquitableandInclusiveFiscalPolicyFiscalIncidenceAnalysis,LaoPDR7October2023RaisingtheBarTowardanEquitableandInclusiveFiscalPolicyFiscalIncidenceAnalysis,LaoPDR7October2023THEWORLDBANKfU)aIwo0>MMOtoMP©2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:;Internet:www.worldbankreserved.ThisworkisaproductofthestaffoftheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredalimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesoftheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RightsandPermissionsM%ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:/creativecommons,org/licensesby3.0igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution-Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2023.LaoPDRFiscalIncidenceAnalysis,Raisingthebar:TowardanEquitableandInclusiveFiscalPolicy.WashingtonD.C.:WorldBank.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations-Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbytheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.Adaptations-Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbytheWorldBank.Third-partycontentTheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-partyownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433zUSA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.1.ayout:PaulBloxhamDesign.Coverillustrations:AdaptedfromShutterstock/TAP14andShutterstock/BatshevsiiiContentsAbbreviationsvAcknowledgmentsviExecutiveSummaryvii1. Introduction1Countrycontext2Roleoffiscalpolicy52. CommitmenttoEquityToolfortheLaoFiscalSystem7CommitmenttoEquitymethodology8ApplicationtotheLaofiscalsystem103. DistributionalImpactoftheLaoFiscalSystem13Fiscalsystem14Fiscalinterventions16Cross-countrycomparison214. DistributionalImpactofPolicyReforms235. Conclusions276. Annexes29Annex 1: Datasourceandmethodology30Annex 2: Policyreforms2019-202240References41FiguresFigure1.1. GDPgrowth2010-20222Figure1.2. Publicdebt2016-20222Figure1.3. Exchangerate3Figure1.4. Inflation3Figure1.5. Povertyheadcountrate1997-20184Figure1.6. Employmentcomposition20184Figure1.7. InequalityacrossEastAsiaandPacificcountries4Figure1.8. Fiscalrevenueandexpenditure2010-20224Figure1.9. Publicspendingonhealthandeducation2016-20225Figure2.1. CEQframework8Figure2.2. Concentrationsharesofprogressive,neutral,andregressiveinterventions9Figure2.3. Incidenceofprogressive,neutral,andregressiveinterventions10Figure3.1. Concentrationoffiscalsystems14Figure3.2. Concentrationsharesoffiscalsystem14Figure3.3. Incidenceoffiscalsystem15Figure3.4. Impactoffiscalinterventionsoninequality(Giniindex)15Figure3.5. Impactoffiscalinterventionsonpoverty(headcountrate)15Figure3.6. Concentrationofdirectinterventions16Figure3.7. Concentrationsharesofdirectinterventions16Figure3.8. Incidenceofdirectinterventions16Figure3.9. Incidenceofpersonalincometax16Figure3.10. Shareofinformalitybydecile17Figure3.11. Concentrationofindirecttaxpayment18Figure3.12. Concentrationsharesofindirecttaxpayment18Figure3.13. IncidenceofVAT18Figure3.14. Incidenceofexcisetax18Figure3.15. Consumptionbasketandshareofinformalconsumptionbydecile19Figure3.16. Concentrationofin-kindbenefits20Figure3.17. Concentrationsharesofin-kindbenefits20Figure3.18. Incidenceofin-kindbenefits20Figure3.19. Schoolenrollment20Figure3.20. Utilizationofhealthcareservices20Figure3.21. Netcashimpactoninequalitybycountry21Figure3.22. Netfiscalimpactoninequalitybycountry21Figure3.23. Netcashimpactonpovertybycountry22TablesTable2.1.FiscalrevenueandspendingintheCEQanalysis12Table4.1.Fiscalanddistributionalimpactsofpolicyreforms26Table6.1. Directtaxesimposedonhouseholds32Table6.2. Socialsecuritycontributionschedules33Table6.3. Socialsecuritytransfers201833Table6.4. ProxyMeansTestmethodology34Table6.5. Directtaxesimposedonhouseholds37Table6.6. CEQincomeconcept39Table6.7. ExcisetaxforitemsintheCEQframework2018and202240Table6.8. Personalincometaxbracketsandrates2018and202040AbbreviationsCCTConditionalCashTransferCEQCommitmenttoEquityCITCorporateIncomeTaxGDPGrossDomesticProductIOTInput-OutputTabIeLECSLaoExpenditureandConsumptionSurveyLMICLower-Middle-IncomeCountriesLSSOLaosSocialSecurityOrganizationNSSFNationalSocialSecurityFundPITPersonalIncomeTaxPMTProxyMeansTestSASSStateAuthorityforSocialSecurityVATValueAddedTaxAcknowledgmentsThisreportwaspreparedbyTanidaArayavechkit(SeniorEconomist)andNataliaGarcia-PenaBersh(Consultant).TheteamisalsogratefultotheGovernmentoftheLaoPDR,especiallytheMinistryofPlanningandInvestmentandtheMinistryofFinancefordataaccess.TheworkwascarriedoutundertheoverallguidanceofHassanZaman(RegionalDirector),MariamSherman(CountryDirector),AlexanderKremer(CountryManager),andRinkuMurgai(PracticeManager).TheteamwouldliketothankpeerreviewersMatthewWai-Poi(LeadEconomist)andPedroMartins(SeniorEconomist)fortheirvaluablecommentsandguidance.TheteamwouldalsoliketothankKeomanivonePhimmahasay(Economist),TaraBeteille(SeniorEconomist,ProgramLeader),EmikoMasaki(SeniorEconomist),VietAnhNguyen(SeniorPublicSectorSpecialist),andJohannesWolff(Consultant)fortheirvaluableinputsandinsights,andSouthidaSalaphan(ProgramAssistant)foradministrativeassistance.ExecutiveSummaryTheLaoPeopIezSDemocraticRepublic(Laos)isfacingeconomicchallenges.Thecountryisexperiencingagrowthslowdownwithhighlevelsofpublicdebt.Growingcurrentexpenditureanddebtserviceobligationsamidsluggishtaxrevenueledtoawideningfiscaldeficitintheearly2010szwhichremainedhighintothe2020sdespitefiscalconsolidationefforts.COVID-19anddeterioratingmacroeconomicconditionshavedisruptedhumancapitalinvestmentandareexpectedtohaveworsenedtheincidenceofpovertyandinequality.Fiscalpolicycanbeaninstrumenttoaddressthesechallenges,butitsrolehasbeenconstrainedbyaprecariousfiscalposition.Policycanbecraftedtostabilizetheeconomy,protectvulnerablepeoplefromeconomicshocks,fostereconomicgrowth,andsupportpovertyandinequalityreduction.InLaos,measurestohelphouseholdscopewithCOVID-19andhighinflationhavebeenconstrainedbylimitedfiscalspace.Thecountry'sspendingonsocialprotectionandreliefmeasureswaslowerthanthelower-middle-incomecountriesandEastAsiaandPacificaverages.AreductionintheVATratefrom10percentto7percentwasimplementedaspartofpost-COVID-19economicrecoveryefforts.Thisunderminedrevenuecollectionandthecountr/sabilitytosupportsustainedsocialspending.Healthandeducationspendinghasdeclinedinrealterms.ThisreportanalyzesthedistributiveeffectsoftheLaofiscalsystemandpotentialreformstoaddresscurrenteconomicchallenges.TheanalysisadoptstheCommitmenttoEquity(CEQ)methodologytoassessthedistributionalimpactoftheLaofiscalsystemonhouseholdwelfare.Themethodologydisaggregatesincometoincludeorexcludefiscalinterventionstoanalyzetheimpactofthefiscalsystemandeachinterventiononpovertyandinequality.Fiscalinterventionscanbeclassifiedintothreecategoriesaccordingtohowtheyareimposedonhouseholds:directinterventions(directtaxes,socialsecuritycontributions,andcashtransfers),indirectinterventions(indirecttaxesandsubsidies),andin-kindinterventions(publichealthandeducation).Theframeworkassesseshowprogressiveafiscalsystemandeachfiscalinterventionareandmeasurestheirimpactsonpovertyandinequality.TheLaofiscalsystemisprogressive,implyingthatincomeaftertaxesandtransfersismoreequallydistributedthanincomebeforetaxesandtransfers.Better-offhouseholdsbearalargertaxburdenthanpoorerhouseholds.Thisisowingtotheprogressivepersonalincometaxscheduleandhigherratesofinformalemploymentamongpoorerhouseholds.Moreover,poorerhouseholdstendtoconsumegoodsandservicesfromtheinformalsectorthatarenotsubjecttoVATaswellasthosethatareexemptedfromVAT.VATpaymentrepresents5.9percentofincomebeforetaxesandtransfersfortherichest10percentofhouseholds,withthesharesteadilydecliningtoonly0.8percentamongthepoorest10percentofhouseholds.Similarly,excisetaxpaymentisprogressive,representing7.7percentofincomebeforetaxesandtransfersfortherichest10percentofhouseholds,comparedtoonly1.1percentamongthepoorest10percentofhouseholds.Amongtheexcisetaxes,thoseleviedonrecreation,vehicles,andluxurygoodsaremoreprogressivethanfuelexciseandhealthtaxes(alcoholicbeverages,cigarettes,andsugar-sweetenedbeverages).However,theimpactsoftheLaofiscalsystemonhouseholdsarelimitedduetoweakrevenuecollectionthatresultsinlowsocialspending.Despitebeingprogressive,theLaofiscalsystemhaslimitedredistributiveandpovertyreductionimpacts.Lowtaxrevenueconstrainssocialspendingonhealth,education,andsocialprotection.Thelatterismoreprogressivethanotherinterventionsanddirectlybenefitspoorhouseholds.TaxrevenueandsocialspendinglevelsoftheLaofiscalsystemarelowbyregionalandincomestandards,andrecentreformshaveexacerbatedthesechallenges.Fiscalsysteminterventionsmoderatelyreduceinequalitybuttheimpactonpovertyreductionisminimal.LaofiscalsysteminterventionsreducetheGiniindex,thecommonlyusedmeasureofinequality,by4.3pointsfrom40.9pointsto36.6points.However,thesmallpaymentamountandlowcoverageofsocialprotectiontransferslimitstheimpactofthefiscalsystemonpoverty,asmeasuredincashtermsorhowmuchcashisavailableinhouseholdsforspending.TheLaofiscalsystemunderperformswhencomparedtothesystemsofothercountriesinthesameincomegroup.Laosranks46thoutof60countriesand16thoutof20lower-middle-incomecountrieswithavailabledataintermsoftheinequality-reducingeffectofthefiscalsystem,withmorethanhalfoftheimpactdrivenbyin-kindhealthandeducationbenefits.Itspovertyreductionperformanceranks15thoutof18lower-middle-incomecountrieswithavailabledata.Againstthebackdropofcurrenteconomicchallenges,thereisaneedforthegovernmenttocreatefiscalspaceformoresocialspending.COVID-19followedbyrisinginflationhasstrainedhouseholdbudgets,withmostlow-incomehouseholdsreducingfoodconsumptionandotherspendingtomakeuptheshortfall.Thisisexpectedtoexacerbatepovertyandinequalityintheshorttermandunderminegrowthanddevelopmentprogressinthelongterm.Supportandreliefmeasureshavebeenconstrainedbylimitedfiscalspace.Householdsupportcanbeprovidedmorecost-effectivelythroughhighersocialspendingratherthanlowertaxes.Tospendmoreonthesocialsectors,thegovernmentneedstoraisemorerevenue.Taxingtocreatemorefiscalspace: RestoringtheVATrateto10percentwouldhaveanimmediateandsignificantimpactonincreasingrevenueandreducinginequality,whilethetaxburdenplacedonlow-incomehouseholdswouldbelow. Raisinghealthtaxes(excisetaxesonbeer,cigarettes,andsugar-sweetenedbeverages)wouldgeneraterevenue.Increasingtheexcisetaxrateonbeerwouldalsohelpreduceinequality.However,consumers,especiallythosefromlow-incomehouseholds,tendtoreduceconsumptionoftheseproductsinresponsetohigherprices.Withprice-responsivebehavioraladjustments,theimmediaterevenuecollectioncouldbelower,butinequalitycanfurtherbereducedandIargerfiscalgainscanbeachievedthroughreducinglong-termhealthcarespending.Spendingontargetedtransfersandhumancapital: Increasingtargetedcashtransfersisacost-effectiveinterventiontoreducepovertyandinequality.TheyareproventobeeffectiveinprotectingvulnerablehouseholdsandpreventinghumancapitalerosionfromCOVID-19andeconomicinstabilityinLaos. IncreasinghumancapitalspendingwouldhelpreduceinequalityandpreventafurthererosionofhumancapitalbroughtaboutbyCOVID-19andeconomicinstability,especiallyamonglow-incomehouseholds.Combiningtaxingandspendingmeasureswouldcreateawin-winsolution,allowingthegovernmenttoprotectthevulnerable,reducepovertyandinequality,whilepreservingsomeofthefiscalgains.CountrycontextAfteradecadeofstronggrowth,theLaoeconomyisfacingeconomicchallengesfromaslowdowningrowth,risingdebtburden,andhighinflation.Havingbeenoneofthefastest-growingeconomiesinEastAsiaandthePacificbeforeCOVID-19,Laosisexperiencingaslowdowningrowth.Whiletheeconomygrewatanaverageof7.0percentperyearbetween2003and2019zsignsofdeceleration叩Pearedin2013.GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)growthsteadilydeclinedfrom8.0percentin2013to5.5percentin2019duetothelimitationsofaresource-driveneconomicmodelandaccumulatedstructuralimbalances.GDPgrowthdroppedto0.5percentin2020owingtoCOVID-19.Therecoveryhasbeengradual,withgrowthinchingupto2.5percentin2021and2.7percentin2022andprojectedtorisetoaround3percentto4percentinthemediumtermzbelowpre-pandemiclevels(Figure1.1).Figure 1.2: Public debt 2016-2022S 9 卜 86 OTZITlIlZZZFollowingeconomicgrowththatwasdrivenbycapital-intensiveindustriesandinfrastructureprojects,largelyfinancedthroughforeigndebt,publicdebthasreachedcriticallevels.Overthepasttwodecades,Laoswitnessedunprecedentedlevelsofcapitalinvestmentinthenaturalresourcesectorandinlargeinfrastructureprojects,predominantlyinhydropowergeneration,transmissionlinesandrecentlyarailway.Aconsiderableproportionofcapitalstockhasbeencreatedunderpublic-privatepartnershipsandfinancedthroughtheaccumulationofforeigndebt(WorldBank2021b).Totalpublicandpubliclyguaranteeddebthasincreasedconsiderablyto$14billionin2Q22,orequivalentto112percentofGDP.Thefigurerisestoover120percentofGDPifaswapanddomesticexpenditurearrearsareincluded(Figure1.2). ArrearS+swap Domestic External(publiclyguaranteed) External(public)Sources:WorldBankforGDP.MinistryofFinanceandWorldBankstaffcalculationsforpublicandpubliclyguaranteed