世界银行-保加利亚公共财政评论2023（英）-2023.12.docx

worldBankgroupP zofnq alnsoosQo=qndP zou< alnso6sQo-qndBulgariaPublicFinanceReview2023December,2023worldBankgroup©2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:Internet:UrWWAvorlcibankorgThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.RightsandPermissionsThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven.Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ableofContentsAcknowledgmentsvAbbreviationsviExecutiveSummaryviiiChapter 1. FiscalPolicyDevelopmentsandChallenges1Macroeconomiccontext2Overallfiscaltrends4Governmentrevenues8Governmentexpenditures10Governmentdebt15Fiscalrisks17Explicitdirectliabilities17Explicitindirectliabilities17Implicitdirectliabilities19Indirectimplicitliabilities20Risksstemmingfrombusiness-cycledynamics20Chapter 2. GovernmentRevenueTrendsandVATGapAnalysis26Totalrevenuetrends27Bottom-upestimationoftheVATreportinggapinBulgaria36VATgapestimationmethodologyforBulgaria38Datadescription38VATgapestimationresults38Policytakeawaysfrombottom-upVATgapstudy40Chapter 3. FiscalSpendingEfficiencyandEffectiveness42Recentdynamicsinbudgetspending43Fiscalspending:Efficiencyanalysis45SpecialFocus3.1.Efficiencyandeffectivenessofspendingoneducation49SpecialFocus3.2:Efficiencyandeffectivenessofsocialspending,includingforaddressingchildpoverty53Annexes59Annex 1: ModelforBulgaria'sDSA60Annex 2: OutputGapAssessment61Annex 3: MethodologicalNoteonStudyofEducationSpendingEffectiveness62Annex 4: RigidityClassificationofBudgetExpenditure67Annex 5: OptimizingSpendinginBulgarianPublicProcurement:AStrategicSourcingAnalysis68Annex 6: MatrixforFiscalRiskAnalysis76HealthTaxes'SimulationResults771.istofFiguresFigureES.1.Generalgovernmentbudgetbalanceoncashbasis(MoF)andaccrualbasis(Eurostat)viiiFigureES.2.Generalgovernmentdebt(ESA2010)viiiFigure1.1.ContributionstoBulgariangrowth2Figure1.2.Bulgaria'sHICPinflation,monthlyy/y%2Figure1.3.Increasedrevenueshavehelpedsupportthefiscalbalanceandpartlyoffsetthedragfromhigherexpenditures5Figure1.4.Governmentsearmarkedfundingtoshieldhouseholdsandbusinessesfromtheenergycrisis,withBulgariaprovidingalargepackage(September2021toNovember2022)5Figure1.5.VATgapas%oftheVTTLinEU-28memberstates,2020and20199Figure1.6.Taxesandbenefitsbydecile,MEPP10Figure1.7.Generalgovernmentexpenditures11Figure1.8.Highrigidityversusincome12Figure1.9.Momentumbyrigiditycategories12Figure1.10.Momentumbyfunctionalexpendituretype13Figurel.il.CyclicalityoffiscalPOIieystance,2016-2113Figure1.12.Generalgovernmentspending-nationalbudgetandEUfundscomponents14Figure1.13.Monthlybudgetexpenditure15Figure1.14.Grossgovernmentdebt15Figure1.15.Primarybalance15Figure1.16.Decompositioninthechangeofpublicdebt-to-GDPratio16Figure1.17.Publicguaranteeddebt18Figure1.18.Bulgaria'sgrossgovernmentdebtscenarioaccountingforriseinaging-relatedspending19FigureBl.l.l.Fiscalmultiplierestimates23FigUre2.1.Totalgeneralgovernmentrevenues,202228Figure2.2.Revenuecomposition,202228Figure2.3.Taxrevenues,202228Figure2.4.Statutoryrates,202128FigureB2.1.1.DecomposedWAPandaffordabilitj,ofcigarettesinBulgaria,2013-2230FigureB2.1.2.TobacexcisetaxrevenueinBulgaria,2012-2130FigureB2.1.3.DistilledspiritsexcisetaxesinEUmemberstates(40percentABVper750ml),202331FigureB2.1.4.AlcoholexcisetaxrevenueinBulgaria,2012-2131FigureB2.1.5.Healthtaxes-simulationresults:sales33FigureB2.1.6.Hecdthtaxes-simulationresults:taxrevenues33Figure2.5.Taxcomposition,202134Figure2.6.Taxcomposition,202134FigUre2.7.Rsz202135Figure 2.8. DecompositionofITRonnsumptionz202035Figure 2.9. VATgapz2019and202035Figure 2.10. VATacuntforaboutone-tbirdoftaxrevenuesinBulgariasecondhighestintheEUafterCroatia37Figure 2.11. ChangeinactualVATrevenuecomponents(in%,2020versus2019)showsanimprovementincompliancein202037Figure 3.1. Distributionofannualfiscalexpenditure,averagefor2015-2244Figure 3.2. Budgetexpenditures,centralgovernmentbudget44Figure 3.3. Compositionofexpenditurebyfunctions,2015-22average45Figure 83.1.1. Totalsavingsassociatedwitheachinterven6onzBulgaria2007-2247Figure 83.1.2. Totalsavingsassociatedwitheachintervention,Bulgaria2007-2247FigureB3.1.3.Impactofthenumberofbiddersonrelativeprices,Bulgaria2007-2248FigureB3.1.4.Impactofthelengthofadvertisementperiodindays,Bulgaria2007-2248FigureB3.1.5.Averagedecision-makingperiodonrelativeprices,Bulgaria2007-2248FigureB3.1.6.Impactofmarketconcentrationonrelativeprices,Bulgaria2007-2249FigureSF3.1.1.Educationspendingefficiencybyselectedperformanceindicators,DEAfrontieranalysis50FigureSF3.1.2.Educationspendingefficiencybyselectedperformanceindicators,DEAfrontieranalysis50FigureSF3.1.3.Qualityofeducationsystem51FigureSF3.1.4.Potentialgainsinqualityofeducationsystem51FigureSF3.2.1.Income-basedpovert),rate,upper-middleincome(UMI)povertyline($6.85perday,2017PPP)zSelectedEUcountries,202053FigureSF3.22.AROPrate,childrenversusadults,202153FigureSF3.2.3.Socialprotectionspending,averagefor2016-2154FigureSF3.2.4.Socialprotectionspending,averagefor2016-2154FigureSF3.2.5.ChangeinGinicoefficientasaresultOftaxesandtransfers,BulgariaversusotherEUcountries(2020zunlessspecifiedOtherWiSe)55FigureSF3.26.Impactofdifferentfiscalpolicymeasuresonchildpoverty,202057FigureSF3.2.7.Bulgaria2020:headcountpovertybynumberofchildren57FigureA3.1.DynamiCimpactofthechangeinthetransferallocationrulesinthespendingperstudent64FigureA3.2DynamiCimpactofthechangeinthetransferallocationrulesinmathtestandlanguagetestrespectivelyfor7thgradestudents64FigureA3.3.Dynamicimpactofthechangeinthetransferallocationrulesinlanguagetestfor12thgradestudents65FigureA5.1.Totalsavingsassociatedwitheachintervention,Bulgaria2007-2271FigureA5.2Totalpercentagesadngsassociatedwitheachintervention,Bulgaria2007-2271FigureA5.3.Impactofthelengthofadvertisementperiod(indays)onrelativeprices,Bulgaria2007-2272FigureA5.4.Impactofaveragedecision-makingperiodlength(indays,perbuyer-year)onrelativeprices,Bulgaria2007-2272FigureA5.5.Impactofbiddernumberonrelativeprices,Bulgaria2007-2273FigureA5.6.Distributionofthedatabynumberofbidders(categories),Bulgaria2007-2273FigureA5.7.Impactofmarketncentrationonrelativeprices,Bulgaria2007-22741.istOfTabIesTable 2.1. Sampleandpopulationuntsbyauditstatusandfirmsize38Table 2.2. BreakdownofbaselineVATreportinggapestimatesbyrefund/balanceduestatusandtaxpayersize,(BGN,millions)(noncompliancerateinparentheses)39Table 2.3. BreakdownofbaselineVATreportinggapestimatesbyrefund/balanceduestatusandregion(BGNzmillions)(noncompliancerateinparentheses)40TableA3.1.Associationbetweenspendingperstudentandlearningfor7thgradersatthemunicipallevel62TableA3.2.Associationbetweenspendingperstudentandlearningfor12thgradersatthemunicipallevel63TableA3.3.Impactofthechangeineducationresourcestransferrulesontesttakerssocioeconomiccharacteristics65TableA3.4.Sociodemographiccharacteristicsofstudents66TableA5.1.Summaryofsavingsinterventions70TableA7.1.Cigaretteexcisetaxsimulationresults77TableA7.2.Alcoholexcisetaxsimulationresults771.istofBoxesBox1.1.EstimatingfiscalmultipliersforBulgaria22Box21.HealthexcisetaxesinBulgaria29Box3.1.Fiscalcostofnoncompetitivepublicprocurement47AcknowledgmentsThePublicFinanceReviewforBulgariahasbeenco-authoredbyDesislavaNikoIova(SeniorEconomist,EECM2)andColletteMariWheeler(SeniorEconomist,DECPG).Severalbackgroundnotesandanalyses-tobepublishedeitherasseparatedocumentsorasannexestothemainreportfedintoitsfindings:1. Bottom-UpEstimationoftheVATReportingGapinBulgaria,byBrianErard(Consultant)2. ReassessingWelfareImpactsofBulgarianFiscalPolicythroughaChildPovertyPerspective,byMonicaRobayo(SeniorEconomist,EECPV)andMaynorCabrera(Consultant)3. Bulgaria'sHealthTaxes-Overview,Trends,andSimulationResultsforPotentialOptimizationofHealthTaxLevels,byEvanHaroldBlecher(Consultant)4. OptimizingSpendinginBulgarianPublicProcurement:AStrategicSourcingAnalysis,byMihalyFazekas(Consultant),BenceT6th(Consultant),ZdravkoVeljanov(Consultant),andViktoriiaPoltoratskaia(Consultant)5. EducationSpendingandLearninginBulgaria,byJuanBedoya(Consultant)6. EstimationsoftheOutputGapandFiscalMultipliersbyFranzUlrichRuch(SeniorEconomist,EMFX)zSergiyKasyanenko(Economist,ECACE)zLorezQeha-ja(Consultant),andKaltrinaTemaj(ResearchAnalyst,DECPG).Chapter3onFiscalSpendingEfficiencyandEffectivenessbenefitedfromclosecooperationwithMassimoMastruzzi(SeniorEconomist,EMFTX)andJohnNanaDarkoFrancois(Economist,EMFTX)whoprovidedvaluabledashboardinputsandpeercomparisondatabasedontheBOOST BOOST Open Budget Portal: Facilitating Access and Use of Micro Fiscal Data (orgenprogramsboost- portal)databaseoffiscaldata.ExternalcommunicationwasadvisedbyIvelinaTodorovaTaushanova(SeniorExternalAffairsOfficer,ECREX),whileSylviaStoynova(OperationsOfficer,ECCBG)helpedwiththeinternalprocess.AdelaIvanovaDelchevaNachkova(OperationsAssistant,ECCBG)providedlogisticalandadministrativesupport.TheprojectwasguidedbyGallinaVincelette(formerCountryDirector,ECCEU),MarinaWes(CountryDirector,ECCEU),LasseMelgaardResidentRepresentative,ECCBG),JasminChakeri(PracticeManager,EECM2)zandtheCountryManagementUnitandhasbenefitedfrombothinternalandexternalreviews.TheteamisgratefultotheinputprovidedbytheNationalRevenueAgency,whichmadepossiblethebottom-upestimationofthevalue-addedtax(VAT)gapinBulgaria,aswellasthefeedbackreceivedfromtheMiniStryofFinance(MoF)whichhelpedfine-tunethefinalsynthesisreport.1.istofabbreviationsAEAdvancedEconomyAMECOAnnualMacroeconomicDatabaseoftheEuropeanCommissionAROPAt-Risk-of-PovertyBDABudgetDeviationAnalysisCEQCommitmenttoEquityCOFOGClassificationoftheFunctionsofGovernmentDEADataEnvelopeAnalysisDSADebtSustainabilityAnalysisEBRDEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopmentECEuropeanCommissionECBEuropeanCentralBankEDISEuropeanDepositInsuranceSchemeEMDEsEmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomiesEUEuropeanUnionGCSGlobalCompetitivenessSurveyGDPGrossDomesticProductGFCGlobalFinancialCrisisGMIGuaranteedMinimumIncomeHCIHumanCapitalIndexHICPHarmonizedIndexofConsumerPricesIBRDInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopmentIMFInternationalMonetaryFundITRImplicitTaxRateMIPPMarketIncomePlusPensionsMoFMinistryofFinanceMNEMultinationalEnterpriseNACENomenclatureofEconomicActivitiesNRANationalRevenueAgencyNRRPNationalRecoveryandResiliencePlanOECDOrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentOLSOrdinaryLeastSquaredPFRPublicFinanceReviewPIMPublicInvestmentManagementPITPersonalIncomeTaxPPPPurchasingPowerParityRIPRelativeIncomePriceRRFReCoVeryandResilienceFacilitySFAStochasticFrontierAnalysisSMEsSmallandMediumEnterprisesSOEState-OwnedEnterpriseSRMSingleResolutionMechanismSSBSugar-SweetenedBeverageSSMSingleSUPerviSoryMechanismTEDTendersElectronicDailyUMIUpper-MiddIe-IncomeUMICLJpper-Middle-IncomeCountryVARVectorAutoregressionVATValue-AddedTaxVTTLVATTrueTaxLiabilityWAPWeightedAveragePriceWDIWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsWEFWorldEconomicForumWEOWorldEconomicOutlkExecutiveSummaryFigure ES.2. General government debtBulgariahastraditionallyadheredtofiscaldisciplineandprudentfiscalpolicysincetheintroductionofitscurrencyboardarrangementinmid-1997.Afteragradualdeclineinthe2000szpublicdebthasremainedamongthelowestintheEuropeanUnion(EU),hoveringinanarrowbandbetween17and29percentofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)forthelastWyears(figuresES.1andES.2).Thelowlevelofpublicdebthasbeensupportedbyrelativelylowfiscaldeficitsorevensurplusesinsomeyears.Thishashelpedthefiscalsystemabsorbrecentshocksrelativelyunscathedandprovidedsufficientfiscalspacetoaddressemergingcrisesandlimitthescarringoneconomicactivity,thelabormarket,andincomes.FigureES.1.Generalgovernmentbudgetbalanceoncashbasis(MoF)andaccrualbasis(Eurostat)2 4-6 d0oo-a dd00oc。 dzr<oe EH OS SM mort A有 f KK 38 LLOC got Sx SXK <×× <s Oos X5 C LOCC Oofi Accrualbasis(ESA2010,Eurostat) Cashbasis(MinFin)Source:Eurostat1MoF1NSI,owncalculations.Source:ESA(2010);EurostatNote:MOF=MinistryofFinance.TheMoF'sbudgetexecutiondataareoompiledonacash-basismethodology;Eurostat'sstatisticsuseaccrualbasis.SimilartoitsEUpeers,BulgariasawitsfiscalpositionworsenfollowingtheCOVID-19outbreakandtheensuingRussianinvasionofUkraine,whichcalledforfiscalsupportmeasurestomitigatethepandemicandcost-of-livingshocks.Yet,thedeteriorationofthefiscalstancewasmoderatebyEUstandardsasthedeficitdidnotexceed4percentofGDPinanyofthecrisisyears.Nevertheless,theslowphasingoutofcertaincrisismitigationmeasureshaskeptthefiscaldeficitrelativelyhighin2022(at2.9percentofGDP)andissettokeepexertingpressurein2023aswell.Goingforward,fiscalpolicywouldneedtoremainprudentinviewofBulgaria'smedium-termeurozoneaccessiontargetandfiscalrulesintheEUmorebroadly.Bulgaria'spublicfinanceswillneedtobeplacedonstrongerfootingtoweatherthesharpslowdowningrowththatisunderwayandtomeetfiscaltargetsrelatedtoeurozoneaccession.However,medium-termconsolidationplanswillneedtobecarefullybalancedwithlonger-termdevelopmentandpublicserviceneeds.Tothisend,consolidationinthemediumrunwouldrequirerapidwithdrawaloftheremainingsupportmeasuresandrenewedattentiontostrengtheningrevenuecollectionandexpenditureefficiency.PacedabsorptionofasignificantEUfundenvelopeforBulgariaundertheNextGenerationEUfacilityandtheMultiannualFinancialFrameworkwouldalsohelpgeneratemuch-neededresourcesforpublicinvestmentindomainswithhighneedssuchasthegreenanddigitaltransition.InBulgaria,meetingfiscaldeficittargetshasoftencomeattheexpenseofcapitalspending,whichhaslikelyhindereddevelopmentgoalsandprolongedincomeconvergencewiththeEU.OVerthelongerterm,fiscalpolicyinBulgariawillfacethechallengesofslowingeconomicgrowthandadversedemographictrends,whichwillrequiredeeperstru