【社媒营销分析报告】新闻、媒体和技术趋势及预测2023（英）.docx

二尊.窿掰笠雄整就肥;AA必趣蠢啦逑处.，擦港熊遮札X；!®ffi½tl通界:尊哽t-守REUTERSINS11TUTEUMrvtltltTYCMOXFORD(j)nvContentsAbouttheAuthor2Acknowledgements2ExecutiveSummary1.Inflation,Uncertainty,andSqueezeon3SpendingCloudsProspectsforJournalism2.DigitalSubscriptionsandBundlingOffer7SomeHope3.PeakInternetandtheChallengeof10NewsAvoidance164. StepChangeinNewsMedia'sCoverageoftheClimateEmergency5. TechPlatformsSufferfromOverreach,19Hubris,andNewCompetition216.FormatInnovation:TheShifttoAudioandVideoContinues287. ProductDirectionisClearbutFrustrationRemainsOverPaceofChange8. BreakthroughYearforArtificial32IntelligenceanditsApplicationforJournalism359.Conclusion40SurveyMethodology42RecentRISJPublications44AbouttheAuthorNicNewmanisSeniorResearchAssociateattheReutersInstitutefortheStudyofJournalism,wherehehasbeenleadauthoroftheannualDigitalNewsReportsince2012.Heisalsoaconsultantondigitalmedia,workingactivelywithnewscompaniesonproduct,audience,andbusinessstrategiesfordigitaltransition.Hehasproducedamediaandjournalismpredictionsreportforthelast13years.ThisistheseventhtobepublishedbytheReutersInstitute.NiCwasafoundingmemberoftheBBCNewsWebsite,leadinginternationalcoverageasWorldEditor(1997-2001).AsHeadofProductDevelopment(2001-10)heleddigitalteams,developingwebsites,mobile,andinteractiveTVapplicationsforallBBCJournalismsites.AcknowledgementsTheauthorwouldliketothank303newsleadersfrom53countriesandterritories,whorespondedtoasurveyaroundthekeychallengesandopportunitiesintheyearahead.Respondentsincluded68editors-in-chief,49CEOsormanagingdirectors,and44headsofdigitalorinnovationandcamefromsomeoftheworld'sleadingtraditionalmediacompaniesaswellasdigital-bornorganisations(seebreakdownattheendofthereport).Surveyinputandanswershelpedguidesomeofthethemesinthisreportanddatahavebeenusedthroughout.Somedirectquotesdonotcarrynamesororganisations,attherequestofthosecontributors.TheauthorisparticularlygratefultoRasmusKleisNielsenforhisideasandsuggestions,theresearchteamattheReutersInstitute,andtoarangeofotherexpertsandexecutiveswhogenerouslycontributedtheirtimeinbackgroundinterviews(seefullerlistattheend).ThanksalsogotoAlexReidforinputonthemanuscriptovertheholidayseasonandkeepingthepublicationontrack.Aswithmanypredictionsreportsthereisasignificantelementofspeculation,particularlyaroundspecificsandthereportshouldbereadbearingthisinmind.Havingsaidthat,anymistakes-factualorotherwise-shouldbeconsideredentirelytheresponsibilityoftheauthorwhocanbeheldaccountableatthesametimenextyear.PublishedbytheReutersInstitutefortheStudyofJournalismwiththesupportoftheGoogleNewsInitiative.ExecutiveSummaryThiswillbeayearofheightenedconcernsaboutthesustainabilityofsomenewsmediaagainstabackdropoframpantinflation,andadeepsqueezeonhouseholdspending.Russia'sinvasionofUkraine,theincreasinglydestructiveimpactofglobalwarming,alongwiththeafter-effectsoftheCOVIDpandemichavecreatedfearanduncertaintyformanyordinarypeople.Intheseconditionsjournalismhasoftenthrived,butthedepressingandrelentlessnatureofthenewsagendacontinuestoturnmanypeopleaway.Couldthisbetheyearwhenpublishersrethinktheiroffertoaddressthetwinchallengesofnewsavoidanceanddisconnection-tooffermorehope,inspiration,andutility?BigTechplatformswillalsobeunderpressurethisyearandnotjustfromtheeconomicdownturn.First-generationsocialnetworkslikeFacebookandTwitterarestrugglingtoretainaudiencesasolderpeoplegetboredandyoungerusersmigratetonewnetworkslikeTikTok.Amidthisturmoil,thereissomehopethatthenextsetofapplicationswillputmoreemphasisonconnectionsandcontentthataregoodforsocietyratherthanthosethatdeliveroutrageandanger.Withhugeaudiencesupforgrabs,wecanexpect(orhope)toseetheseedsofsomethingbetterin2023withahostofnewnetworksandmodelsemerging.Meanwhile,thenextwaveoftechnicalinnovationisalreadyhere-andwearenottalkingaboutthemetaverse.Extraordinaryadvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)in2022havelaidbaremoreimmediateopportunities-andchallenges-forjournalism.AIoffersthechanceforpublishers(finally)todelivermorepersonalinformationandformats,tohelpdealwithchannelfragmentationandinformationoverload.Butthesenewtechnologieswillalsobringexistentialandethicalquestions-alongwithmoredeepfakes,deepporn,andothersyntheticmedia.Buckleupfortheride.Againstthisbackdrop,newsorganisationsthathavenotyetfullyembraceddigitalwillbeataseveredisadvantage.Thenextfewyearswillnotbedefinedbyhowfastweadoptdigital,butbyhowwetransformourdigitalcontenttomeetrapidlychangingaudienceexpectations.Howdomedialeadersviewtheyearahead? Publishersaremuchlessconfidentabouttheirbusinessprospectsthanthistimelastyear.1.essthanhalf(44%)ofoursampleofeditors,CEOs,anddigitalleaderssaytheyareconfidentabouttheyearahead,witharoundafifth(19%)expressinglowconfidence.Thebiggestconcernsrelatetorisingcosts,lowerinterestfromadvertisers,andasofteninginsubscriptions.Eventhosethatareoptimisticexpecttoseelayoffsandothercost-cuttingmeasuresinthenextyear. Atthesametime,wefindevidencethatmostpublishers(72%)areworriedaboutincreasingnewsavoidance-especiallyaroundimportantbutoftendepressingtopicslikeUkraineandclimatechange-withonly12%notworried.Publisherssaytheyplantocounterthiswithexplainercontent(94%),Q&Aformats(87%)zandinspirationalstories(66%)consideredimportantorveryimportantthisyear.Producingmorepositivenews(48%)wasalesspopularresponse. Morepublishersareinvestinginsubscriptionandmembershipin2023,withthemajorityofthosesurveyed(80%)sayingthiswillbeoneoftheirmostimportantrevenuepriorities,aheadofbothdisplayandnativeadvertising.Despitethesqueezeonconsumerspending,overhalf(68%)stillexpectsomegrowthinsubscriptionandotherpaidcontentincomethisyear. Publisherssaythat,onaverage,threeorfourdifferentrevenuestreamswillbeimportantorveryimportantthisyear.Athird(33%)nowexpecttogetsignificantrevenuefromtechplatformsforcontentlicensing(orinnovation),significantlyuponlastyear,reflectingthefruitsofmulti-yeardealsnegotiatedinsomemarketswithanumberofbigpublishers,ofteninthecontextofpolicieschampionedbythosesamepublishersbeingintroducedorconsideredbygovernments. Withmorelegislationplannedthisyeartorestrictzharmful,contentonsocialmedia,manyrespondents(54%)worrythatthesenewrulescouldmakeitharderforjournalistsandnewsorganisationstopublishstoriesthatgovernmentsdonztlike.Aroundathird(30%)arelessworriedand14%arenotworriedatall. Publisherssaythey'llbepayingmuchlessattentiontoFacebook(-30netscore)andTwitter(-28)thisyearandwillinsteadputmuchmoreeffortintoTikTok(+63),Instagram(+50),andYouTube(+47),allnetworksthatarepopularwithyoungerpeople.IncreasedinterestinTikTok(+19ppcomparedwithlastyear)reflectsadesiretoengagewithunder25s,andexperimentwithverticalvideostorytelling,despiteconcernsaboutmonetisation,datasecurity,andthewiderimplicationsofChineseownership. ThepotentialimplosionofTwitterunderthestewardshipofElonMuskhasfocusedmindsonitsvaluetojournalists.Halfofoursurveyrespondents(51%)saythepotentiallossorweakeningofTwitterwouldbebadforjournalism,but17%takeamorepositiveviewsuggestingitcouldreducerelianceontheviewsofanunrepresentativebutvocalelite.1.inkedIn(42%)hasemergedasthemostpopularalternative,followedbyMastodon(10%),andFacebook(7%).Othersstruggletoseealike-for-likereplacement. Astheimpactofclimatechangebecomesmoreevident,thenewsindustryhasbeenrethinkinghowitcoversthiscomplexandmulti-facetedstory.Aroundhalf(49%)saytheyhavecreatedaspecialistclimateteamtostrengthencoverage,withathirdhiringmoreSta仔(31%),Justunderhalf(44%)saytheyareintegratingdimensionsoftheclimatedebateintoothercoverage(e.g.businessandsport)andthreeinten(30%)havedevelopedaclimatechangestrategyfortheircompany. Intermsofinnovation,publisherssaythattheywillbeputtingmoreresourceintopodcastsanddigitalaudio(72%)aswellasemailnewsletters(69%),twochannelsthathaveprovedeffectiveinincreasingloyaltytonewsbrands.Plannedinvestmentindigitalvideoformats(67%)isalsouponlastyear,perhapspromptedbyTikTok,sexplosivegrowth.Bycontrastjust4%saythey,llbeinvestinginthemetaverse,reflectingincreasedscepticismaboutitspotentialforjournalism. MediacompaniesarequietlyintegratingAIintotheirproductsasawayofdeliveringmorepersonalisedexperiences.Almostthreeinten(28%)saythisisnowaregularpartoftheiractivities,withafurther39%sayingtheyhavebeenconductingexperimentsinthisarea.NewapplicationssuchasChatGPTandDA1.1.-E2alsoillustrateopportunitiesforproductionefficiencyandthecreationofnewtypesofsemi-automatedcontent.Otherpossibledevelopmentsin2023? Morenewspaperswillstopdailyprintproductionthisyearduetorisingprintcostsandweakeningofdistributionnetworks.WemayalsoseeafurtherspateofvenerabletitlesSW让Chingtoanonline-onlymodel. TVandbroadcastnewswillbeattheforefrontofjournalisticlayoffsasaudiencesarehitbynewsfatigueandcompetitionfromstreamers.MoreTVbroadcasterswilltalkopenlyaboutatimewhenlineartransmissionsmightbeturnedoff.NetflixzSpartialswitchtoanad-basedmodelincreasesthepressurefurtheronadvertisingrevenue. Inlastyear'sreportwepredictedanexplosionofcreativityinshort-formvideostorytellinginyouth-basedsocialnetworks.Thisyearwe,11seemorepublishersembracingthesetechniqueswhilevideosgetlongerinthesearchofsustainablerevenue. Expecttoseeacorrectioninthecreatoreconomythisyear.WhilemanyindividualjournalismbusinessesthathavebeenstartedonSubstackandotherplatformscontinuetothrive,thepressureofdeliveringtoconstantdeadlinesonyourownisrelentless,andzcreatorfunds'andsimilarmonetaryincentivesOfferedbysomeplatformscan,tbereliedontoendure.Collectivesandmicro-companiescouldbeanewtrendfor2023. IfsalmostimpossibletopredictElonMusk,snextmoveatTwitter,butthereislikelytobeanenormousgapbetweenrhetoricanddeliveryasthecomplexitiesofrunningacreativeandoutspokenglobalcommunitybecomesclearer.MuskislikelytostepdownasCEOsoonerratherthanlaterandafurtherchangeofownershipcan'tberuledout. MeanwhileSmartglassesandVRheadsets,buildingblocksofthemetaverse,willcontinuetoattractattention,especiallywithAppleexpectedtojointhepartywithitsfirstheadset.Theadditionofzlegs,toFacebook'smetaversehastakeneightyearsandbillionsofdollarsofinvestment.Therolloutofthesewholesomeavatarsthisyearwon,twinroundtheinternalorexternalcriticsormaketheconceptanymorerelevantforjournalism.1.egsarecomingsoon!Areyouexcited?/1. Inflation,Uncertainty,andSqueezeonSpendingCloudsProspectsforJournalismThistimelastyearfewpredictedVladimirPutin'sinvasionofUkraine,aneventthathastriggeredanenergycrisisandspirallinginflationacrossmanycountries.Allthishasremindedusofthevalueofon-the-groundreporting,andexpertanalysisattimesofuncertainty,butithasalsomadethefundingofsuchjournalismmoreprecarious.Advertisersarepullingbackatthesametimeashouseholdsreducespendingandpublishersfacerisingcostsonmultiplefronts.Thosethatstillrelyheavilyonprinthavebeenparticularlybadlyaffected,withthecostofpaperdoublinginsomecases.Towardstheendof2022,thisperfectstormledtoanumberoflayoffs,spendingfreezes,andothercost-cuttingmeasures.Inoursurvey,lessthanhalf(44%)ofoursampleofeditors,CEOs,anddigitalleaderssaytheyareconfidentabouttheirbusinessprospectsintheyearahead,withalmostasmany(37%)uncertainandaroundafifth(19%)expressinglowconfidence.19%37%44%1.essthanhalfofpublishersareconfidentabouttheyearaheadBusinessprospectsin2023NotconfidentNeithernorConfidentQ6.Towhatextentareyouconfidentaboutyourcompany,sbusinessprospectsintheyearahead.N=303.IntheUnitedStates,Gannettplanstocutitsnewsdivisionbyafurther6%,losingaround200staff.TheWashingtonPostisdiscontinuingits60-year-oldprintmagazine,CNNislayingoffhundredsofpeople,andNPRispreparingtomakesignificantcutsasaresultofafinancialblackhole.Ifsasimilarpictureinmanycountriesaroundtheworld.Gannettinitiatesanotherroundoflayoffs,cuttingitsnewsdivisionby6%WashingtonPostSaysItWillEndSundayMagazine,Eliminates10StaffPositionsFYomCNNtoParamount,PtrfcctStorminMediaPropels1.ayofTsDigital-bomcompaniesarenotimmune.BuzzFeedislosinganother180employees,whileMorningBrewisaxing14%ofitsworkforce.FallingtrafficfrombigsocialplatformslikeFacebook(Meta)andTwitter,whicharebothheadinginnewdirections,hascompoundedtheproblem,especiallyforcompaniesthathavebecomedependentonsocialdistribution.Spendingbyadvertisersisunpredictable.Distributedrevenueisdown.Traditionalsocialmediaplayers,whichhadstartedtorestraintheirunpredictability,haveimploded-MetamostinpactfullyfTwittermostspectacularly.Thefoggypicturemakesitdifficulttoplan.Andtheechoesofthepandemic-whichstillisnftover-havefrayednerves.Digital-bornad-basednewsorganisation,UnitedStatesElsewheremanyEuropeanpublishershaveseenaworryingdeclineinprint-basedsubscriptionspartlylinkedtobreakdownindistributionnetworksandhigherlevelsofchurnoverall/WeseeapostCorona-slump,inflation,andtroubleswithprintdistribution,sothereislessconfidencethanayearago/saysPhilippeRemarque,PublisherandDirectorofJournalismatDPGintheNetherlands.IfsasimilarstoryinFranceaccordingtoaCEOofoneleadingpublisher:'Newsmagazinesarelosingprintanddigitalsubscriberswhilethepriceofpaperisrising7.OutsideEurope,publisherslargeandsmallfacesimilarpressures.zReaderrevenuecontinuestogrowalthoughataslowerpace,saysStyliCharalambous,CEOoftheDailyMaverickinSouthAfrica.'Advertisingandcommercialsponsorshipsareexpectedtobetoughertogrow,ifatall/hesays.Anypublicationthatstillhasaheavydependenceonprintcirculationoradvertisingrevenueislikelytorunintoseveredifficultiesthisyear.Regionalandlocalnewspapersareespeciallyvulnerable,potentiallyleadingtomoregovernmentinterventioninsomecountriestosupportthesector.Broadcastersalsofaceincreasingdisruptionwithrapidlydecliningaudiences-acrossallagegroups-forlinearnewsbulletinsandopinionprogramming.Itdoesn'thelpthatmostcommercialTVandradioprovidersremainoverlydependentonadvertisingorcarriagefeesandgeneratelittledirectrevenuefromviewersorlisteners.Netflix'sdecisiontotakeadvertisementswilladdfurtherpressurewhilepublicbroadcastersfacefundingcutsamidintensifyingattacksbypoliticiansandrivalpublishers.Whatwillhappenthisyear?HaircutforprinttitlesExpectmorenewspaperstoslimdowneditions,stopsevendayaweekpublication,andevencloseprinteditionsaltogether.Regionalandlocaltitlesseemmostvulnerable(NewsquestintheUKhasrecentlyconvertedfiveregionaltitles)alongwithahostofmagazinetitlesthathavealreadymovedtoanonline-onlymodel.Withfewercopiesbeingsold,distributionnetworksarealsoweakeningandexpectsometofollowtheexampleofUSpublishersinleveragingthepublicmail1orevenstartingtheirowndeliverybusinesses.Greenconsumerismcouldaddfurtherpressuretomoveawayfromprint.https:/www.poynter.org/business-work/2022/more-newspapers-consider-a-pivot-to-postal-delivery-to-cut-costs-and-ease-headaches/BroadcastersexperimentwithmoredigitalprojectsThecollapseofCNN+lastyearsuggestedthereislittlefutureforstand-alonelinearnewssubscriptions,butexpecttoseeincreasedattemptstobundleon-demandandlivenewsintostreamingservices.CNNisintegrating'originals'contentwiththeDiscovery+offeringandITVXisputtingupdatingnewsattheheartofitsrebrandedstreamingservice.Meanwhilepublicbroadcaste