牛津经济研究院-啤酒在低收入国家的经济贡献（英）-2024.1.docx

够IiFN屈油CSOFBEERIN1.OWERINCOMECOUNTRIESTAB1.EOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary41. Introduction62. Thebeersector'seconomicfootprint83. Beerconsumption143.1 Beerconsumptionpatterns143.2 Beerconsumptioninthecontextofthebroaderalcoholindustry164. Thebeersector'spotentialtogrowinlowerincomecountries184.1 Modellingapproach184.2 Beersector'spotentialtocontributemoretolowerincomeeconomies185. Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumptioninlowerincomecountries225.1 Factorsinfluencingalcoholconsumption2252Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumption226. Conclusionsandfutureresearchrecommendations26Appendix286.1Beer'sconsumptionovertime2862Modellingframework28$34billionThebeersector,scontributiontoGDPinlowerincomecountries.TheaveragecontributiontoGDPwas1.6%acrosslowerincomecountriesin2019,comparedto0.9%acrosshighincomecountries.67millionJobssupportedbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.IMlfflTMEXECUTIVESUMMARYIn2022zwepublishedastudyoftheglobalbeersector'seconomicfootprintacross70countries,conductedonbehalfoftheWorldwideBrewingAllianceusing2019data.Onemainfindingofourpreviousstudyisthatthebeersector'seconomicsignificanceissubstantiallylargeracrosslowerincomeeconomies.Inthisreport,weinvestigatefurthertheimportanceofthebeersectorinlowerincomeeconomies.Webeginbyexaminingwhythebeersector'seconomicsignificanceisgreaterinlowerincomecountries,andthenanalysehowbeerconsumptionvariesacrosscountries.Wealsoexplorehowtheseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtheriftheshareofbeerconsumptionrose,whilekeepingoverallalcoholicbeverageconsumptionlevelconstant.Weconcludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.Thebeersectoralreadysupportslargersharesofeconomicvalueinlowerincomeeconomies.In2019zthebeersector'scontributiontoGDPaveraged1.6%acrosslowerincomecountries,almostdoubleitscontributiontoGDPinhighincomecountries(anaverageof0.9%ofnationalGDP).Thebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesalsosupportedmorejobsinbothabsoluteandrelativeterms(anaverageof1.4%ofnationalemploymentversus1.1%inhighincomecountries),whichcouldbeexplainedbythelowerlevelsoflabourproductivityandamoreprominentroleofagricultureinthesecountries.Thebeersectorinthesecountriesisalsocharacterisedbyalessprominentroleofthedownstreamsegment(accountingforonly39%ofthesector'sgrossvalueaddedcontribution,comparedto62%inhighincomecountries)andalowerlevelofinternationalisation(nearlyallthebeersoldinlowerincomecountriesisproduceddomestically,comparedtohighincomecountrieswhereanaverage12%ofsalesbydownstreambusinessesisimportedfromoverseas).Beerconsumptiontendstobelowerinlowerincomecountriescomparedtotherestoftheworld.Theaveragepersoninlowerincomecountriesconsumesonlyonethirdofthebeerconsumedbytheircounterpartsinhighincomecountries.Despitelowerpricesandlowerlevelsofconsumption,consumersinlowerincomecountriesallocatealargershareoftheirdisposableincometobeercomparedtoindividualsacrossothercountryincomegroups.OXFORDECONOMICSThisindicatesbeeriscomparativelylessaffordableinlowerincomecountries.Furthermore,wefindthatdemandforbeerincreasesClisproportionallyatlowincomelevels(i.e.zamonglowerincomecountries),butismuchlessincomesensitiveascountriesbecomericher.Thissuggeststhatbeerbehavesasa''luxurygood“inlowerincomeeconomies,asopposedtoa''normalgood“inhighincomecountries.Whilethesegeneralobservationsaremadebasedonconsumptionpatterns,wearenotabletodrawanyconclusionsaboutthesignificanceorcausalityoftherelationshipbetweendisposableincomeandbeerconsumption.$67Averagepercapitaexpenditureonbeerinlowerincomecountries,significantlylowerthanthe$403spentinhighincomecountries.Thebeersectorcouldmakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlowerincomecountriesifbeerwasalargershareoftotalalcoholconsumption.Weestimatethattotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionbythebeersectorcouldrisetoanaverageof2.2%ofGDPacrosslowerincomeeconomies.Thesector'spotentialtogrowisfoundtobegreatestinIndia,Ethiopia,andGhana.Thereareseveralconstraintstothebeersector'spotentialtomakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlowerincomecountries.Whenaccountingforalcoholcontentandvolume,beerisrelativelymoreexpensivethanspiritsacrosscountriesofallincomegroups,withalargerdifferencefoundamonglowerincomecountries.1.ookingatexcisedutiesbyethanolcontent,beerisalsotaxedmorethanspiritsacrosslowerincomecountries.Beyondprices,thereareotherfactorstoconsiderthatcaninfluencepeoplezsdecisionstoconsumebeer,includingtastesandculturaldifferences.Incertaincountries,spirits,wine,andotheralcoholicbeveragesarepreferredandmorepopularthanbeer.+$37biThepotentialincreaseincontributionstoGDPbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesifbeerconsumptionlevelsrosetoourCounterfactualscenario.Thereishowevermuchlefttoexploreinrelationtothistopic.Somepossibleextensionstothisstudycouldinvolvelookingattheoverallmacroeconomicimpactofincreasedbeerconsumptionontheeconomy;assessingtaxframeworksforalcohol;investigatingtheimpactofunrecordedalcoholconsumption;exploringcausalrelationshipbetweenconsumptionpatternsandkeydriversusingadetailedeconometricmodel.OXFORDECONOI.JICSTheeconomiccontributionofbeerinlowerincomecountries1. INTRODUCTIONThebeersectorbringstogetherawiderangeoforganisationswhichareresponsibleforproducing,marketing,distributing,andsellingbeertomillionsofconsumersacrosstheglobe.Incarryingouttheseactivities,businessescreateandstimulatesignificanteconomiccontributionstotheglobaleconomy.In2022,wepublishedastudyoftheglobalbeersector'seconomicfootprintacross70countries,conductedonbehalfoftheWorldwideBrewingAlliance.Inthisfirst-of-its-kindstudy,whichtookaglobalperspectivetoestimatethebeer'seconomicfootprintusing2019data,wequantifiedthebeersectorzseconomiccontributionsupportedbybrewingandsellingbeer(thesector'sdirectimpact),itsspendingwithsuppliersofgoodsandservices(itsindirectimpact),andthewage-fundedspendingintheconsumereconomybyemployeesofthebeersectoritselfanditssupplychains(itsinducedimpact).Ourstudydemonstratedhowimportantthebeersectoristoeconomiesaroundtheglobe.Thestudyrevealedthat,in2019,thebeersectorsupportedanestimated$555billioningrossvalueaddedcontributionstoglobalGDPandaround23millionjobs.Notably,wefoundthattheglobalbeersector'scontributionisespeciallyimportanttolowerincomecountries.Inthisreport,togetherwithABInBev,weinvestigatefurthertheroleofthebeersectorforlowerincomeeconomies.Westartbyexaminingwhythebeersector'seconomicsignificanceishigherinlowerincomecountries,andthenanalysehowconsumptiontrendsvaryacrosscountries.Finally,weexplorehowtheseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtherifbeer'sshareoftotalalcoholicbeverageconsumptionincreased.Weconcludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.OXFORDECONOMICS2. THEBEERSECTOR,SECONOMICFOOTPRINTDiggingfurtherintotheresultsofourpreviousstudy,thissectionofthereportdescribeshowthebeersector'seconomiccontributionsvaryacrossincomegroupsandthekeydriversbehindthesedifferences.1BasedontheWorldBank'sdefinitionofincomegroups,wecategorisedtheanalysedcountriesintothefollowinggroups:highincome,uppermiddleincome,andlowerincome.2inhighincomecountrieswhere,onaverage,thesectorsupported0.9%ofnationalGDP.However,inabsoluteterms,beer'stotalgrossvalueaddedcontributioninlowerincomecountriesamountedto$34billiononlyaIOthofthe$337billionsupportedinhighincomeeconomies.Withinthelowerincomegroup,thebeersectorstimulatedthelargestgrossvalueaddedimpactasshareofnationalGDPinCambodia(4.3%),wherepercapitabeerconsumptionwasalsothehighest.ThebeerindustrystimulatedthelowesteconomicimpactasshareofnationalGDPinIndonesia(0.20%)zSri1.anka(0.29%),andIndia(0.33%),Unsurprisingly,amonglowerincomeeconomies,thesethreecountriesrecordedthelowestpercapitabeerconsumptionin2019.Thebeersectorcomprisingbothbrewersandthedownstreamvaluechain,whichincludesbeerdistributors,retailers,andthehospitalityindustrysupportssubstantialeconomicbenefitsacrosstheglobe.In2019,weestimatethatbrewers'andbeer'sdownstreamvaluechainsupported$1inevery$131ofglobalGDPandoneinevery110jobsintheglobaleconomy.3Onemainfindingofourpreviousstudywasthatthebeersector'seconomicsignificancewassubstantiallylargeracrosslowerincomeeconomies.Thebeersector'stotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionasashareofnationalGDPaveraged1.6%acrosslowerincomecountriesin2019.4Inthesecountries,thebeersector'stotalimpactwasnearlytwiceasimportantasFig.1:Beersector'stotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionsbycountryincomegroupin2019GVAz$billionz2019pricesTotalGVAimpactPercentageofnationalGDPPercentoftheeconomy,incomeSource:OxfordEconomicsOXFORDeconoviicsFig.2:Beersector,stotalemploymentcontributionsbycountryincomegroupin2019incomeSource:OxfordEconomicsTheresultsaresomewhatdifferentwhenwelookatjobs,whicharehigherinbothproportionalandabsolutelevelsinlowerincomecountries.In2019zthebeersectorsupported6.7millionjobsinlowerincomecountries,or50%morethanthe4.5millionjobssupportedinhighincomeeconomies.Inrelativeterms,thesector'simpactwasalsolargerinlowerincomecountriesthanhighincomecountries,withanaverage1.4%and1.1%ofnationalemploymentbeingsupported,respectively.5Differencesinproductivitiesacrossincomegroups,andinthecompositionofindustriesstimulatedbythebeersector,contributetoexplainingtheIargerjobsimpactsacrosslowerincomecountries.Therelativeimportanceofagriculturetolowerincomecountriesandlowerlevelsofproductivityareamongthefactorsdrivingtheseresults.Thatis,thebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesismorelabourintensivethaninhighincomecountries.6Amongstlowerincomecountries,thebeersectorsupportedthehighesttotaljobscontributionasashareofnationalemploymentinMozambique(3.7%).ItwasfollowedbyCambodiawith3.3%ofnationalemploymentsupportedbythebeersector.Similartogrossvalueaddedimpacts,thebeersector'slowestjobcontributionswereinIndonesia(0.21%),India(0.26%)zandSri1.anka(0.33%).5Thisiscalculatedastheaveragecontributionacrosscountriesintheincomegroup.Morelabourintensivemeansthatmoreunitsoflabourarerequiredtoproduceoneunitofoutput.Tobetterunderstandthefeaturesanddriversofthesectorzsimpact,itisimportanttoknowhowbrewers'andbeer,sdownstreamvaluechaincontributedtothisimpact.Acrosslowerincomecountries,brewerssupportedalargershareofthetotalgrossvalueaddedimpact.Ofthe$34billiongrossvalueaddedcontributionsupportedbybeerinlowerincomeeconomiesin2019,brewersaccountedfor61%.Thisisalmostexactlythereverseinhighincomeeconomies,wherebusinessesalongthedownstreamvaluechainsupported62%oftheoverallgrossvalueaddedimpact.Thisdifferenceislikelyexplainedbythefeaturesandcharacteristicsofdownstreamactivitiesacrossdifferentincomegroups.Whilebrewerstendtobehighlyproductiveacrossalleconomies,beer'sdownstreamvaluechainvariessubstantiallyacrosstheglobe.Distribution,retail,andhospitalitysectorsinhighincomecountriesoftenoffermoremodernservicesforexample,throughhigherpersonalisationanddigitisationwhichtendtobemorecostly.Thisisbecauserunningtheseservicesrequireshigherinvestmentsandhigheroperatingcosts,aswellasamorespecialisedandexpensivelabourforce.Thedownstreamvaluechainbeingalabour-intensivesectorandaveragelabourwagesbeingrelativelyhigherinhighincomecountriesalsocontributetoexplainingthehighervalueaddedinthesecountriescomparedtolowerincomeeconomies.Focusingonemployment,brewerssupported55%ofthetotaljobsimpactbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.Inhighincomecountries,however,beer'sdownstreamvaluechainaccountedfor73%ofthetotaljobsimpact.Becausedownstreambusinessestendtobelessproductivethanbrewers,weseeamorebalanceddistributionofthejobsimpactacrosslowerincomecountries.Agricultureisbyfartheindustrybenefitingthemostfromthebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.Oftheindirectgrossvalueaddedsupportedinthesecountries($13billion),22%wasstimulatedintheagriculturalindustry,followedbywholesaleandretail(13%),andprofessionalandbusinessesservices(10%).Averydifferentpictureisobservedacrosshighincomecountries,wherebusinessesintheprofessionalandbusinessesservicesindustrybenefitthemostfrombeer'ssupplychainactivities,accountingfor20%ofthetotalindirectcontributiontoGDP.Incontrast,agriculturedidnotfeatureamongthetopfivebeneficiaryindustriesinthesecountries.Similarresultsareobservableintheinducedchannelofimpact;although,astobeexpected,therearehigherimpactsamongindustriestypicallybelongingtotheconsumereconomy,suchasrealestateservices.Theseresultsreflecttheunderlyingstructureoftheeconomyandhowthisdiffersacrossincomegroups.Fig.4:Beer'simpactinhighincomecountries,bychannelandindustry(2019)incomecountriesexported12%numberofjobssupportedFinally,welookedattheextenttowhichthebeersectoranditsupstreamsupplychainsareintegratedintheglobaleconomy,andwhetherthisvariesacrossincomegroups.Thebeersectortendstobemoredomesticallyfocusedinlowerincomecountrieswithmostofitsimpactoriginatingfromlocalactivities.In2019,brewersinlowerincomecountriesexported,onaverage,1.4%oftheirproduction,withtheremaining98%ofproductionleftforthelocalmarket.Meanwhile,businessesinthedownstreamvaluechainimportedonaverage2.6%offinishedproductforresale.Incontrast,brewersanddownstreambusinessesinhighincomecountriestendtobemoreintegratedintheglobaleconomy.In2019,onaverage,brewersacrosshighoftheirproductionandbusinessesinthedownstreamactivitiesimported12%oftheirfinalproducts.Overall,weidentifyfivedistinctfeaturesofthebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.Thefirstisthat,despitehavinganabsolutesmallergrossvalueaddedimpact,thebeersectorcontributesalargersharetoGDPinlowerincomecountries(1.6%)thanhigherincomecountries(0.9%).Thesecondisthatthebeersectorsupportsmorejobsindevelopingcountriesinbothabsolute(6.7millionjobs)andrelativeterms(1.4%ofnationalemployment).Third,lowerincomecountrieshavelowerlevelsoflabourproductivityandamoreprominentroleofagriculture,helpingexplainthehigherbythebeersector.Fourth,thedownstreamsegmentofthebeersectorismuchlessprominentinlowerincomecountries,accountingfor39%ofthesector'sgrossvalueaddedcontribution,comparedto62%inhighincomecountries.Andfifth,thebeersectorismuchlessinternationalisedinIowerincomecountries,withthedownstreamsegmentofthebeersectorimportinganaverageofonly2.6%Offinishedproductforresale,comparedto12%inhighincomecountries.Thenextsectionexploresdifferencesinspendingpatternsacrossincomegroupsandhowthesecanexplainsomeoftheseobservations.OXFORDECONOMICS3. BEERCONSUMPTIONBeerisoneofthemostpopularbeveragesconsumedallovertheworld.Inthissectionofthereport,welookatbeerconsumptionpatternsacrossthe70countriesanalysedinourpreviousstudyandfocusonhowthesevaryacrossandwithindifferentincomegroups.3.1 BEERCONSUMPTIONPA11ERNSBasedonEuromonitordataonbeerconsumptionandpopulationdatafromtheWorldBankzweestimatethatzin2019zpercapitaconsumptionofbeeraveraged64litresacrosstheanalysed70countries.Tocons