世界经济论坛-一亿农民：可持续转型融资的突破性模式（英）-2024.1.docx

IncollaborationwithWeR1.)Bain&CompanyECONOMICFRU100MillionFarmers:BreakthroughModelsforFinancingaSustainabilityTransitionINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 NavigatingthetransitiontosustainablefoodPrOdUCtiOn61.1 Theneedforafastertransition71.2 Barrierstofasteradoptionbyfarmers101.3 Thefinancingandcollaborationchallenges122 Breakthroughmodelsforfinancingandcollaborationtosupportfarmers142.1 Anillustrationofabreakthroughmodelforfinancingandcollaboration152.2 Innovativeexistingprogrammes202.3 Gapsinexistingprogrammes233 Roadmaptodriveastep-changeinsustainablefoodproduction26Appendix31Contributors33Endnotes35DisclaimerThisdumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers.Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerdig,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January2024100MillionFarmers:BreakthroughModelsforFinancingaSustainabilityTransitionForewordTaniaStraussHead,FoodandWaterWorldEnomicForumVikkiTamHead,GlobalSocialImpactPractice;FoodSystems1.eadBain&CompanyThereisaleadershipimperativetourgentlyandthoughtfullyreshapehowweproduceandconsumefoodtomakeourfoodsystemsmoresustainableandresilient.Therequisitedimate-smartandnature-positiveproductionpractices,technologiesandinputsareincreasinglywellunderstood.Whatwemustaddresstogetherishowtosupportproducercommunitiesandvaluechainstomeaningfullyaccelerateandsustaintheadoptionoftheseproductionchanges.FasteradoptionwilldriveprogressontheParisAgreement's2030globalclimategoals,possiblyaheadofanyothersector,andalleviatethestressesononeofourmostscarceresources-water.Individualfarmersfacemanybarriers-particularlyeconomicrisks-whenadoptingmoresustainableproductionpractices,technologiesandinputs.Thisreportseekstoacceleratethetransitionbyproposingaclearroadmapformoreeffectivecollectiveaction.Crucially,successfultransformationrequiresamajorbstofdiversifiedcapitalandbreakthroughmodelsoffinancingandcollaborationtosupportfarmers.Manyactors(publicandprivate,withinfoodvaluechainsandbeyond)haveessentialrolestoplayinprovidingthatcapitalanddeployingiteffectively.Usingregenerativeagricultureasanexample-acriticalpartofthetransitiontosustainablefoodsystemsinitsownright-thereportproposesamodelandroadmapformoreeffectivecoordinationamongtheseactors.Themodelsupportsfarmersbyprovidingaflexiblesetoffinancialandnon-financialservicesandenablesabroadsetofactorstosharetherisksandrewardsofregenerativeagriculture.Thisreportpresentsaroadmapfornavigatingthesetransitionchallenges.Ittakesinspirationfrommanypromisingexistingprogrammesthatarealreadydeliveringpositiveresults.Itbuildsonalargeandgrowingbodyofexistingresearchandthoughtleadership,includingGreenReturns:UnleashingthePowerofFinanceforSustainableFoodSystems.'Itdrawsontheexperienceofmanypractitionersinthepublic,privateandnon-profitsectors.WewouldespeciallyliketothankthemembersoftheWorldEnomicForumCEOAllianceforFood,WaterandHealthandthentributorstothe100MillionFarmersFinanceTaskForcefortheirknowledgeandleadership.Thisreportwillbepresentedtoleadersinthebusiness,governmentandsocialsectorsattheWorldEconomicForumAnnualMeetinginDavos1Switzerland,inJanuary2024.Alliancemembersintendtobeginimplementingthemodeldescribedinthisreport,startingwithoneormorepilotsin2024.Thisimplementationispartofthe100MillionFarmersplatform,whichacceleratessustainableagri-foodpracticesandsupportsprivateandpublicsectorleadersincollectiveactioneffortsthatpositionfoodandfarmersascentralpillarsoftheglobalclimateandnatureagenda.ExecutivesummaryAbreakthroughmodeloffinancingandcollaborationsupportingfarmerscanspeedupthetransitiontosustainablefoodproduction.Globalfoodsystemsneedtoshiftrapidlytomoresustainableformsofproductionaspartofbroaderfoodsystemtransformationefforts.2Foodsystemsaccountedformorethan30%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissionsin2020,3over80%oftropicaldeforestation4andbiodiversityloss5and70%ofglobalfreshwaterwithdrawals,oftenfromalready-stressedriverbasinsandgroundwaterreserves.6Theproductionchanges-practices,technologiesandinputs-requiredtoimprovetheclimate,waterandnaturefootprintofthefoodsystem,improveresilienceandhelprestoretheplanetareincreasinglywellunderstood.Thekeyquestionishowtomaketheadoptionoftheseproductionchangeshappenatthescaleandpacerequiredtomeetglobalgoalsonclimate,water,natureandfoodsecurity.Attheheartofthischallengearethebarrierstoadoption-particularlyeconomicbarriers,inadditiontotechnicalandsocialchallenges-thatfarmersface.Adoptingnewfarmingapproachesfrequentlyrequiresnewinputs,equipmentandtechnologies.Followingadoption,farmyieldsandprofitscanoftengetworsebeforetheygetbetter.Currentfinancingsystemsandmodelsdonotsufficientlyaddressthesebarriers.Arapidandlarge-scaletransitionwillrequiremuchmorecapital.Globally,thefullfoodsystemtransformationneedsanadditional$300billionto$350billionincapitalinvestmentannuallythrough2030.7Eventhoughthisinvestmenthasanexpectedsocietalreturnofmorethan15timesandfoodandagricultureaccountforasignificantshareofglobalgreenhousegasemissions,lessthan4%ofclimatefinancein2021and2022wasdedicatedtoagriculture,forestryandotherlanduse.8However,additionalcapitalinvestmentalonewillnotbeenoughtoaccelerateprogressandsustainchange.Capitalandcapabilitiesmustalsobecoordinatedanddeployedmoreeffectivelytoaddresseconomic,technicalandsocialbarrierstofarmeradoption.Thisreportproposesabreakthroughmodelforfinancingandcollaborationtosupportfarmers,withaspecificfocusontheiradoptionofregenerativeagriculture(definedasantext-dependentsystemoffarmingpracticesthatdeliversorimprovesecosystemservicesandeconomicoutcomes):-Whatsupportdofarmersneedtoadoptregenerativepractices?Farmersshouldbeofferedaflexiblestackoffinancialandnon-financialsen/icesfromwhichtheycanselectthesupporttheyneedbasedontheirspecificntext.Financialsupportshouldincludelendingandinsuranceonfavourabletermstoreflectthattheadoptionofregenerativeagriculturecanreduceriskexposureforfinancialactors.Farmersalsoneedupfrontpaymentsorguaranteesthatcandefraytheenomicriskstheyencounterduringtheearlyyearsofpractiadoption.Non-financialsupportshouldincludetechnicalassistan,dataservicesandaccesstoequipmentandinputs.-Howshouldsupportbefunded?Tosupporttheadoptionofpracticesandsustaintheirimplementation,akeysourceoffinancingshouldcomefromthemonetizationofthefullvalueofallecosystemservicesdeliveredbyregenerativepractices,includingimprovedresilienceandenvironmentaloutcomeslikehealthiersoils,carbonsequestrationandgreenhousegasemissionsavoidance,reducedfreshwateruseandpollution,andenhancedbiodiversity.Inexchangeforecosystemservices,alltheactorsthatbenefitfromregenerativeagriculture,includingvaluechainparticipants(acrosscroprotations),lendersandinsurers,andgovernmentsshouldprovidefinancing.Tosupportinitialinvestmentsinfarmers'financialandtechnicalsupportformultipleyearsbeforeenvironmentaloutcomesarerealized,additionalcapitalmustbeaggregatedfrompublicandprivatesources,includingcatalytic,concessionalandlong-terminvestment.-Whoshouldprovidethecapitalanddeliveryofsupport?Engagementfromabroadsetofactorsiscritical,startingwithfinancialactorsandotherswiththeadvancedfinancialcapabilitiesneededtoassess,pool,priceandmanagerisk,aggregatecapital,monetizeecosystemservicesandre-engineercashflowsforfarmers.Oneormoreactorsmustalsobethecatalystforcoordination.Coordinationisneededtosimplifytheadoptionprocessforfarmers,toassemblethediversesetofactorsthathavearoletoplayandstandtobenefitfromtheadoptionofregenerativeagricultureonagivenacreandtodemonstratethevaluepropositionofbeinginvolvedtoallparticipants.Researchonover50existingregenerativeagricultureprogrammesintheUSshowsnoneincludeseverycriticalelement.However,severalinnovativefarmerfinanceprogrammesareimplementingsomeoftheseelements.Theseprogrammes,particularlythoseinvolvinggrowerassociations,providerichlessonsandexcitingopportunitiesforfuturedevelopment.Fiveactionswillacceleratetheimplementationofregenerativeagricultureatscale:1. Buildout,scaleupandreplicatebreakthroughmodelsforfinancingandcollaboration(asarticulatedinthisreport).Buildonexistinginitiativeswiththerightfoundationalelements-particularlyparticipationfromessentialactorslikegrowerassociations-andaddthecriticalmissingelements.2. Promotetheengagementoffinancialactorsintheadoptionofregenerativeagriculture.Withtherightcapabilitiesinplace,financialservicesactorscanreducetheirriskexposureandopenupnewbusinessopportunitieswhileturbochargingregenerativeagricultureprogrammes.3. Structureprecompetitivecollaborationamongvaluechaincompaniestoaggregatedemandforenvironmentaloutcomesandimprovedfarmresilience.Developorexpandcoordinatingmechanismstoensurethatalltheecosystemservicesresultingfromregenerativeagriculturearefullyvaluedandeveryactorthatbenefitsiscommittedtocontributingthroughpaymentsforenvironmentaloutcomesand,potentially,procurementarrangements.4. Establishaconsistentandsupportivepolicyandenablingenvironment.Usepolicyleverstostrengthenthebusinesscaseforprivatesectorcompanies,investorsandfarmerstoexpandtheuseofregenerativeagriculturepracticesandinvesttoprovidecatalyticcapitalforpromisingprogrammesandinnovationsandtodeveloptheagriculturalcommons(i.e.intellectualassets,humancapital,physicalinfrastructure).5. Developadatacommonsandacceleratemarketplacedevelopmentforallecosystemservices.Advancethedefinition,standardization,measurement,reporting,verificationandavailabilityofdatalinkingregenerativepracticestoeconomicoutcomesforfarmers,environmentaloutcomesandresiliencetoenablethescalingofmarketsandmechanismstofullymonetizetheecosystemservicesresultingfromregenerativeagriculture.Realprogressonthefasteradoptionofregenerativeagricultureandgreatersustainabilityacrossallformsofagricultureiswithinreach.Breakthroughmodelsforfinancingandcollaborationcanensurefarmersupportisdeliveredwhenandwhereitisneeded,asefficientlyandequitablyaspossible,andatthescaleandpaceneededtodrivealastingtransformation.NavigatingthetransitiontosustainablefoodproductionFinancingandcollaborationmodelsmustaddresstheeconomic,technicalandsocialbarriersfarmersfacetoacceleratesustainablefoodproduction.1.1 TheneedforafastertransitionTheworld,shighlyproductivefoodsystemsgeneratemorethanenoughfoodtofeedeveryoneontheplanet9butaccountformorethan30%ofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions10andexactasubstantialtollonnatureinmanypartsoftheworld.Abouthalfofagri-foodsystememissions(14%ofGHGemissionsin2020)comefromcropandlivestockproductionactivitieswithinthefarmgateJAdditionally,foodsystemsrepresent70%offreshwaterwithdrawalsglobally,oftenfromalready-stressedriverbasinsandgroundwaterreserves.12Changestofarmingpracticeshaveavitalroletoplayinreducingthisburden;forexample,more-sustainablefoodproductioncanreducewaterpollutionandfreshwateruseandcouldsequester9%to23%ofglobalannualGHGemissionsinsoilseachyear.13Theproductionchangesneededareincreasinglywellunderstoodbutprogresshasbeenslow.Attheheartofthisproblemarethemanybarriers-particularlytheeconomicrisks-thatindividualfarmersfaceinadoptingmoresustainableproductionpractices,technologiesandinputs.Addressingtheeconomicbarriersrequiresfillingamassivefinancinggap(Figure1)andchanginghowcapitalisdeployed.FIGURE1Moreinvestmentisneededtoaccelerateprogressonclimate,waterandnaturegoalsFoodandwatersystemsreceivemuchlessinvestmentthantheyneedordeserve4%15x$25-$80billionTheagriculture,forestryandotherlandusesector(asubsetofthefoodsystem)receiveslessthan4%ofoverallclimatefinanceGlobalclimateinvestmentinfoodsystemsmustincreaseby15x,from$20billionto-$300-$350billionperyear,tomeettheexpectedannualcostsoftransformationoverthenextdecadeReachingthefullpotentialagronomicallyoptimal)adoptionofjusttworegenerativepractices(low/no-tillandcovercrops)intheUSrequires$25-$80billioninfinancingFoodandagricultureaccountforasignificantshareofhumanimpactsonclimate,waterandnature14%ofglobaldeforestationandbiodiversitylossisaresultofagriculturalproductionofglobalfreshwaterwithdrawalsareforagriculture*ofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsaredrivenbyfoodandagricultureofglobalGHGemissionscomefromwithinthefarmgate,generatedbycropandlivestkproductionactivities*90%inlow-incomecountriesSources:ClimatePolicyInitiative,14InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,'5WorldBank,'6FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations,7Greenpeace1'8andWorldEconomicForumandBain&Companyanalysis.Healthysoilisthepathwaytomoresustainable,resilientandhealthierfoodsystems.Wemustworktogethertoprovidefarmerswiththetechnology,financingandsupporttheyneedtoadoptregenerativepracticesmorequickly.SveinToreHolsether,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,YaraInternational(Changesinfarmingpracticeareoccurring,butnotquicklyenough,andsignificantlymoreinvestmentisneeded.Theadoptionofregenerativeagriculture(acontext-dependentsystemoffarmingpracticesthatdeliversorimprovesecosystemservicesandeconomicoutcomesonthebasisofbettersoilhealth;seedefinitioninFigure2)forrowcropproductionisanimportantpartofthebroadertransitiontosustainableagriculturalproductionacrossallcropsandlivestockandsharesthesamechallenges.1.ikethebroaderfoodsystemtransition,changesinfarmingpracticeareoccurring,butnotquicklyenough,andsignificantlymoreinvestmentisneeded.Asanexample,considertheeffortstodrivetheadoptionofregenerativeagricultureintheUS,whichisoneofthelargestandmostproductivegrowersofcorn,soyandwheatintheworld.19IntheUSalone,privatesectoractorsleadatleast50activeorplannedeffortstosupportfarmeradoption.Evenso,lessthan10%ofUSfarmerswereengagedincompany-ledregenerativeagriculturepilotsin2021andtheadoptionofregenerativepracticesremainsfarbelowfullpotential.20Take,forinstance,twopracticesthathavereceivedattentionrecently:inthemostrecentofficialUSdata,farmersimplementednotill(inwhichsoilisleftundisturbed)on36%and39%ofplantedcornandsoybeanacres,21respectively,andplantedcovercropsonjust7%ofMidwesternfarmland.22Manyotherpracticesalsoremainbelowtheagronomicallyoptimallevelofadoptionandthereisunmetdemandfromfarmersforsupport;forexample,anewfarmerfinanceprogrammelaunchedbytheEnvironmentalDefenseFundandFarmersBusinessNetworkin2022tosupporttheadoptionofregenerativepracticeswasquicklyOversubsaibedandwilldoubleinsizeinitssecondyear.23Astep-changeinfinancingisneeded.IntheUS,anestimated$25billionto$80billionormoreinfinancingisneededtosupportfarmerstoreachtheagronomicallyoptimallevelofadoptionofjusttwopractices-no-tillfarmingandcovercrops.TheUSrepresentedsome10%ofallgrainandoilseedharvestedacresgloballyinthe2021/20