世界经济论坛-扩大可持续航空燃料供应：克服欧洲、美国和中东的障碍（英）-2024.3.docx

WQR1.DECONOMICFQRUMIncollaborationwithKearneyScalingUpSustainableAviationFuelSupply:OvercomingBarriersinEurope,theUSandtheMiddleEastINSIGHTREPORTMARCH2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51 ScalingSAFforEurope111.1 Europeansituationandchallenges121.2 Keyactionstotake131.2.1 Collaboration131.2.2 Finance141.2.3 Policy152 ScalingSAFfortheUS172.1 USsituationandchallenges182.2 Keyactionstotake192.2.1 Collaboration192.2.2 Finance212.2.3 Policy223 ScalingSAFfortheMiddleEast233.1 MiddleEastsituationandchallenges243.2 Keyactionstotake243.2.1 Cross-industryllaboration253.2.2 Improvingefficiencyinexistingrefineries253.2.3 Power-to-liquiddeployment253.2.4 Governmentandregulatorengagement263.2.5 Publicawarenessandeducation26Conclusion:WhatwillittaketoscaleSAFglobally?27Contributors29Acknowledgements29Endnotes31DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandnclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.March2024ScalingUpSustainableAviationFuelSupply:OvercomingBarriersinEurope,theUSandtheMiddleEastForeword1.aiaBarbaraHead,ClimateStrategy,WorldEomicForumClaudiaGaleaGlobalSustainabilityDirector,KeameyTheWorldEconomicForumandAirportsCouncilInternational(ACI)Worldareco-leadingtheAirportsofTomorrowinitiative,whichseekstoaddresstheenergy,infrastructureandfinancingneedsoftheaviationindustry'stransitiontonet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050.Theinitiativehasconvenedexecutivesfromacrosstheaviationsectorwithanaimofacceleratingthemovetowardsincreasedsustainabilityandresilience.Thisreportpresentskeyfindingsfromourworkonsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)in2023.WeshowcasecriticaltechnologiesforSAFscalingandtheiradvantages,aswellasthegreatestchallengesatthistime.FutureSAFvolumeshavebeenanalysedandoptimalglobalproductionhubsidentifiedtosatisfythisemergingdemand.Furthermore,wefocusedonadequateregulationandpolicytoenableglobalSAFscaling,aswellasinsightsandimportantthemesforspecificuntriesandregions.Thereportfocusesonthreeregions-Europe,theUSandtheMiddleEast-andntainsinsightsfromstakeholdersintheaviationandenergyindustriesaswellasthepublicsector.ThemaingoalistoprovideacomprehensiveoverviewoftheexistingchallengesforSAFadoptionandhighlightwhichactionsstakeholdersalongtheentirevaluechainshouldtaketomovetowards10%SAFin2030andsubsequentsectordecarbonizationby2050.ThisworkwasdevelopedbytheWorldEconomicForuminpartnershipwithKearney,ACIWorld,AirbusandArup.Wethankourpartnersandindustrysponsorsfortheirsupport.ExecutivesummaryTheaviationsectorfaceschallengesinscalingSAF5requiringcollectiveeffortstoacceleratetechnologydeployment,securedemandcertaintyandestablishconduciveregulatoryframeworks.Airtravelcontributes2-3%ofglobalCO2emissions,1primarilyduetoaircraftfossilfuelconsumption.Furthermore,theprojecteddemandforaviationfuelcouldsurgebyover50%by2050comparedto2019,increasingthissharesignificantly.2Despiterecognitionoftheimportanceofsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)indecarbonizingtheindustry,globalproductionremainsinsufficient,withannouncedprojectscoveringonly30-40%oftheaspirational10%ofglobalfuelsupplyin2030.Solvingthissupplyshortagerequiresdeployingexistinganddevelopingnoveltechnologiesinregionswithfavourableconditions.AppropriateregulationsandpoliciesarealsoneededtocreateaSAFmarketgiventhatSAFproductioniscurrentlytwotofivetimescostlierthanfossiljetfuel.3Europehasbeenleadingthewayonmanypoliciesaimedatadvancingthedecarbonizationofitseconomy,suchastheimplementationofemissionstradingsystems(ETS)andadoptingtheReFueIEUlegislation,committingtotangibleSAFmandatesofupto70%offuelsupplyby2050.4Stakeholdersarenowfocusingoncollaborationintechnologydevelopment,providingtransparentSAFpropertiesandcommittingtolong-termSAFagreements.Thepublicandprivatesectorswillneedtocometogethertounlockthesignificantinvestmentsrequiredtoscale.IntheUS,financialincentivesarestimulatingtechnologydevelopmentanddeployment.TheInflationReductionAct(IRA)containstaxcreditsforproducers.1.ocallegislation,especiallyonthewestcoast,aimstoattractproduction.Withoutmandates,theindustryislookingforpartnershipstoensurelong-termofftakesandtangiblerisk-sharingagreements.Extendingboththedurationandavailabilityoffederalincentivescanprovidegreaterplanningsecurityfornewproductionfacilities.IntheMiddleEast,localconditionsandtheregion'sroleasaglobalaviationhubarefavourablefortheproductionofSAF.Withcheaprenewableenergy,accesstofinanceandestablishedexportnetworks,theregioncouldbecomeahubforpower-to-liquid(Pt1.)fuels.However,withoutcomprehensiveandfavourableSAFregulation,playerscurrentlyfocusongreeningexistingfossilrefineriesandproducinglower-carbonaviationfuel(1.CAF).Increasedpublicawarenessandcloserpublic-privatecollaborationareimperative.Theregionwilllikelyadoptafast-followerrole,deployingtechnologyonceithasbeenprovenelsewhere.StakeholdersgloballyagreedthatthefollowingkeyactivitieswillenabletherapidscalingofSAF:- SAFandenergyproducersshouldfocusondeployingeffectiveSAFproductioncapacitiesandlookforlong-termdemandcertaintytoderisktherequiredfunding.- Airportscanactasimpartialmatchmakers,encouragingSAFpartnerships,drivingpublicawarenessandpromotingSAFupliftthroughincentives(e.g.directsubsidiesormodulatedlandingfees).- AirlinesneedrobustsupplierpartnershipstoaccesscompetitiveSAF.Inreturn,theyshouldcommittolong-termofftakeagreementsandpotentialco-ivestmentinproductionfacilities.- Originalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)mustensurecompatibilityoffutureengines,fuelsystemsandaircraftwith100%SAF.Furthermore,theyshouldsupporttechnologydevelopmentthroughextendedpartnerships.- CorporatecustomerscantaketheleadincoveringthegreenpremiumcostforSAF,whileatthesametimeprovidingtechnicalknowledge.- Thefinancesectormustincreasegreeninvestments,participateinfundingforSAFandcollaboratewiththeindustrytodevelopandderiskrobustbusinesscases.- GovernmentsareincreasinglyrecognizingtheimportanceofSAFandshouldpasslegislationtosupportthemarketbuild-up.ThesuccessofSAFscalinghingesonstrategicpartnerships,targetedtechnologydeploymentandsupportiveregulationsandfinancingmechanisms.IntroductionGlobalcollaboration,investmentandsupportivepoliciesareneededtobridgetheprojecteddemand-supplygapin2030andbeyond.Challengesinproductionandtechnologyadoptionremain.Inaddition,regionalfactors-suchasavailabletechnologies,favourableproductionconditionsandpolicylandscapes-significantlyinfluenceSAFdeploymentstrategies.ImportanceofSAFinaviationdecarbonizationTheaviationsectorisahard-to-abatesectoramideffortstoreachanet-zeroworldin2050,currentlycausing2-3%ofglobalCO2emissions.5Thekeydecarbonizationchallengesarisefromthehighenergydensitiesrequiredforaircraftandthelackofzero-emissionpropulsioncommerciallyviabletoday,asfoundinothersectorssuchasroadtransport.Whilesolutionssuchasimprovedoperationalefficiency,hydrogenandelectricaviationwillhelptheindustrydecarbonize,itistheconsensusthattheseactivitieswill,forthenextdecade,beinsufficienttoadvancethenet-zerotransition.Presently,thecriticalsolutiontodeployissustainableaviationfuel(SAF),whichisestimatedtoaccountformostenvironmentalimpactreductionuntil2050.Themainreasonsforthisarethepossibilityforrapidscaling(ifcurrentbarriersareovercome),seamlessintegrationintoexistingfuelinfrastructureandadditionalbenefits,suchaslowersulphurdioxide(SO2),nitrogendioxide(NO2)andparticulateemissionsreducingairpollution.6AlthoughitisestimatedthatSAFwillmprise65%oftheenergymixforaviationin2050,accordingtotheInternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA),7currentproductionremainslowdespiteanincreasedwaveofannouncementsandcommitmentstorampupproductionglobally.DuringtherecentthirdInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)ConferenceonAviationandAlternativeFuels(CAAF3),theindustryagreedtostriveforaneffectiveCO2emissionreductionof5%by2030,8whilethesignatoriesoftheCleanSkiesforTomorrow2030ambitionstatementaspiretoa10%SAFshareoffuelsupplybythesameyear.9Realizingbothofthesemilestoneswillrequiremorerapiddeploymentofproductioncapacities.Collaborationamongallstakeholdergroupsintheaviationesystem(seeFigure1)willbeessentialtoenablethistransformation.FIGURE1:SimplifiedoverviewoftheaviationandenergyindustryecosystemSAFandenergyproducersAirlinesOEMsSource:KearneyandAirportsofTomorrowProjectedSAFdemand-supplygapin2030Achieving10%SAFinglobalfuelsuppliesby2030iscrucialtokickstartaviationdecarbonizationandprovethattherapidscalingrequiredinthefollowingdecadesispossible.Consideringrecentaviationfuelconsumptionfactors,10andestimatedregionalgrowthfactors,11globalfueldemandin2030isestimatedat400-500metrictonnes(Mt)annually.Atotalof40-50MtofSAFwouldthusbeneededtoreachtheCleanSkiesforTomorrowambition.However,lookingatcurrentlyannouncedprojectsuntil2030,only30-40%ofthisdemandwouldbecovered(seeFigure2).12Thisismostlyduetotechnologyrisk,lackoffundingandmarketuncertaintyleadingtoahesitancyamongfuelproducerstoinvestinnewproductionsitesandinfrastructure.AnothernotableissueistheopacityofSAFprices(bothbidandoffer),whichisanaturalconsequenceofthestilllowvolumesofexchangedquantities.Pricesareoftenprivatelynegotiatedandnottransparenttothewidermarket.ThislackoftransparencyandliquidityposesadditionalfrictiontofastSAFdeploymentacrosstheworld.ThecreationofaglobalSAFmarketplacewouldgoalongwayinresolvingthesetransparencyandliquidityissues,facilitatingtradingandhelpingtoclosethestill-too-widespreadbetweenbidandofferprices.FIGURE 2. Only30-40%oftheprojected10%SAFdemandin2030iscoveredbycurrentprojectannouncements,withthemajoritycomingfromHEFA-basedproductionCurrentlyannouncedproductioncapacitiesfall25-35Mt/year(-60-70%)shortOfdeliveringon10%globalSAFsharein2030,.HEFA.G-FTAtJ.Pt1.Gap.Target20301. Consideredprojectstages:planning,investmentdecision,constructionandoperation.Note:HEFA=hydro-processedestersandfattyacids;G-FT=biomassgasificationFischer-Tropsch;AtJ=alcohol-to-jet;Pt1.=power-to-liquid.Source:KearneyandAirportsofTomorrowAvailabletechnologiesandtheirkeychallengesSAFisgenerallyproducedfrombiogenicornon-biogenicsourcesandhasthepotentialtoreduceCO2emissionscomparedtofossiljetfuelbyupto99%onalife-cyclebasis,dependingontheproductionroute.13Whenblendedwithconventionalfuel(JetA1),itschemicalandphysicalpropertiesarecomparableandcertifiedascompatiblewithconventionaJetA1fuel.Oneofthemaindifferencesbetweenthe“neat-SAF”andkerosene(JetA1)istheabsenceofaromatics,leadingtoissueswithsealingO-ringsandwithlubricationinaircraftengines.Suchanissueissolvedandmonitoredbyusingblendsbetween"neat-SAFnandconventionalfueltoobtainaSAFthatcomplieswiththeexpectedfuelspecifications.AsofJuly2023,theAmericanSocietyofTestingandMaterials(ASTM)hasapprovedseveralpathways,14whicharealsotheonesrecognizedbyICAO.TheASTMadditionallyspecifiestherespectivemaximumSAFblendratioswithconventionaljetfuel,withthemaximumapprovedSAFratiocurrentlyat50%,whichensuressafeoperationsofcurrentaircraftandenginesystems.ThisreportfocusesonthefourmostpromisingASTM-approvedpathwaystobedeployedatscaleinthecomingdecades(seeFigure3):hydroprocessedestersandfattyacids(HEFA),biomassgasification(G-FT),alcohol-to-jet(AtJ)andpower-to-liquid(Pt1.).FIGURE 3. IKeySAFproductionpathwaysrelyonsimilartechnologybuildingblocksFoursynthesisroutesarecommonlyregardedasthemostpromisingfromafeedstockandcostpointofview-85-94%emissionreductionsPower-to-liquid(Pt1.)Biomassgasification(G-FT)，Alcohol-to-jet(AtJ)Hydro-processedestersandfattyacids(HEFA)Source:KearneyandAirportsofTomorrow1. Hydro-processedestersandfattyacids(HEFA)HEFAiscurrentlythemostcommonSAFpathwaygloballyanduseswasteandresidueoilfeedstocks,suchasusedcookingoilorpurpose-grownoil-yieldingplants.Toimprovetheproductionyield,hydrogenisalsofedintotheprocess.However,significantcostreductionsinthecomingyearsareunlikelyasthetechnologyismatureandtheincreaseddemandhasrecentlyresultedinrisingfeedstockcost.Inaddition,sustainabilitychallengesaroundpurpose-grownoil-yieldingplantslimitedthescalingpotentialofHEFAtowards2050.2. Biomassgasification(G-FT)Thegasificationofbiomassproducesamixtureofhydrogenandcarbonmonoxide(e.g.syngas),whichisusedtoproduceSAFinaFischer-Tropschreactor.Basedonthewidearrayofusablefeedstocks,twosubtypesaregenerallydistinguished:biomass-to-liquid(Bt1.)andwaste-to-liquid(Wt1.).Therequiredtechnologiesareunderstood,andcostimprovementsthroughscalingmaybepossible.Onekeycostdriveristhechoice,collectionandenergycontentofthefeedstock,oftenrequiringsmallerdecentralizedproduction.PreprocessingofbiomassclosetothesourcecanenablelargercentralizedSAFproductionsites.3. Alcohol-to-jet(AtJ)TheAtJpathwaycanprocessanyfeedstockthatcanbeprocessedtoalhols(forinstance,ethanolormethanol)andnvertsthemintoSAFwithahighspecificyield.BioethanolisalreadyawidelyproducedproducttodayandcouldberedirectedtoscaleSAFproductionquicklyuntil2030.Furthermore,localprocessingofbiomassfeedstocksintoalcoholsallowslarger-scalecentralizedproduction,enablingadditionalcostsavings.Allrequiredtechnologiesarewellunderstdandhavebeenindividuallydeployedwithinindustrialsites.Theextenttowhichcostreductionsarepossibleisunclear.4. Power-to-liquid(Pt1.)Hydrogen(H2)andCO2fromengineeredratherthanbiologicalprocessesareusedtoproducePt1.SAF,makingittheonlypathwaythatisnotlimitedbybiomassfeedstkavailabilityinthelongterm.H2usedinthiswaycanbeproducedviaelectrolysis(e.g.greenH2)orfromfossilsources,iftheemittedCO2iscapturedandpermanentlystored(e.g.blueH2).CO2canoriginateeitherfromappropriatepointsources(e.g.biomassenergy)ordirectaircapture(DAC).Akeychallengethatdrivesmostofthecostistheaffordabilityandaccessibilityofvastamountsof(renewable,inthecaseofgreenhydrogen)energy.Affordabilityisstronglydependentonlocalconditionsandpolicies,makingthestrategicpositioningofthesefacilitiescrucial.WithbothelectrolysisandDACbeingemergingtechnologies,significantcapitalexpenditure(CapEx)savingsarelikelyinthenextdecades,butPt1.remainsthemostexpensivepathwaytoday.FavourableregionsforSAFproductionSAFisaliquidfuel,likeconventionalfuels,andcanbetransportedthroughexistingglobaltransportnetworks.Asaresult,productionfacilitiescanbebuiltinregionswithidealconditions,enablingthecheapestandmostefficientproductiontofulfiltheemergingglobaldemand.SeveralfactorsinfluencehowfavourablealocationistoproduceSAFfromtechnicalandeconomicstandpoints(e.g.notconsideringanypoliciesorregulations).Themostimportantaspectistheavailabi