世界经济论坛-气候危机中的创新与适应：面向新常态的技术（英）-2024.1.docx

IncollaborationwithBostonConsultingGroupWQR1.DECONOMICFQRUMInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis:TechnologyfortheNewNormalINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51 Comprehendrisks(andopportunities)121.1 Dronesfordatacollection141.2 IoTandsensorsfordatacollection141.3 Earthobservationforplanetaryintelligence151.4 Artificialintelligence161.5 AR/VRtovisualizeclimateimpacts191.6 Advancedcomputingtopowerintelligence202 Buildresilience212.1 Climate-resilientinfrastructure242.2 Climate-resilientfoodsystems252.3 Resilientglobalsupplychains262.4 Advancedearlywarningsystems273 Responddynamically283.1 Thefirst72hours303.2 Alforhumanitariandatallection303.3 Earthobservationforpost-disasteranalytics313.4 Alforpost-crisisdecision-making323.5 Dronestooptimizesearch-and-rescueoperations333.6 Altooptimizemobilityandevacuations334 Multistakeholderllaborationandkeyenablers354.1 Opensourceistheunlock374.2 Repositioningadaptationtoattractfinance404.3 Policyandregulationasacatalyst41Conclusion42Contributors43Endnotes45DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicFo11jmbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,nor(heentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January2024InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis:TechnologyfortheNewNormalForewordHelenBurdettHamidMaherManagingDirectorandPartner,BostonConsultingGroupHead,TechnologyforEarth,WorldEconomicForumRecentyearshaveseenextremeweathereventswracktheglobe-fromthe2021floodinginGermanytothispastyear,swildfiresinHawaii,EasternCanadaandAustralia-leavinglittledoubtthattheimpactsofclimatechangearearriving.Theclimatescienceisclearthattheseimpactswillbecomemorevolatile:thecontinuationofcurrentemissionsandnaturedegradationcorrelatewithincreasedsudden-andslow-onseteventswithinthisdecade.Mitigatinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionshasneverbeenmoreurgent.Atthesametime,communities,businessesandgovernmentsmustadapttopresentandoncomingchanges.Adaptationistheprocessofevolvingtotheeffectsofchange-inthiscase,adjustingecological,socialandeconomicsystemstoalleviatetheimpactsofclimatechange.Thisincludescrisisresponseforextremeeventssuchasfloodingandwildfires.Italsoencompassesmulti-faceted,agileapproachesfornavigatingaworldwherereliableclimateandweatherconditionscannolongerbetakenforgranted.1.eadersneednewformsofintelligencetobuildresilienceintotheircommunitiesandbusinesses.Alongtheway,first-moverswillfindthisisnotonlyariskmitigationstrategybutalsoasourceofcompetitiveadvantage.Therearemultipleinterdependentapproachestoclimateadaptation,includingeconomicincentives,policyandregulation,locally-ledintervention,andnature-basedapproaches.Technologyisakeyenableracrossallofthem-helpingleadersnotonlytoassessclimateriskbutalsotoidentifysolutionsandtobuildresilienceintherealworld.Data-drivenanddigitaltechnologies,inparticular,willbeacriticalsourceofadaptivevalueprotectionandcreation.Advancesinthesetechnologies-particularlyartificialintelligence(AI)-havebeenoneofthemajorstoriesof2023.Thisreportoutlinestherolesthatdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiescanplayinsupportingclimateadaptation,fromstrengtheningriskanalyticsandclimate-proofingsupplychainstopoweringR&Danddiscoveryprocessestoyieldthenextgenerationofclimatetechnologies.TheTeChforCIimateAdaDtatiOnWorkingGroup,hostedbytheWorldEconomicForum'sCentrefortheFourthIndustrialRevolution,convenedtodevelopthisreportandadvanceapplicationsandknowledgerelatedtotechnologyforclimateadaptation.Theworkinggroupincludesleadersandexpertsfromtechnology,industry,thepublicsector,academiaandcivilsociety.Itsmembershavebeenessentialtochartingthescopeofthisreportandbringingdomain-specificinsighttoitschapters.Thereisnotechnologicalsilverbulletforclimatechange.Moretothepoint,thereisnosubstitutefordeepandswiftmitigationofGHGemissions.Theimpactsofclimatechangearehereandcannotbeignored.Technologyoffersawaytomanagetheseimpacts-toadaptandbringmoreclaritytoanuncertainfuture.ExecutivesummaryTheimpactsofclimatechangeareintensifyinganddata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiescanhelp.Theimpactsofclimatechange-intheformofextremeandslow-onsetevents-areincreasinginfrequencyandintensity.TheWorldEconomicForum,s2024GlobalRisksReportrankedextremeweathereventsasthesecond-mostsevereriskoverthenexttwoyears-andthemostsevereovera10-yearhorizon.Nearlyhalfoftheworld'spopulationisvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.Virtuallyeverysectoroftheglobaleconomyisexposedtosomedegreeofclimate-relatedrisk.Technologyisintegraltobuildingadaptivecapacity,propellinginnovationandbringingnewcapabilitiestoleadersandcommunities.Thereisnotechnologicalpanaceathatcantackleclimatechange;thereisnosubstitutefordeepandswiftmitigationofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.However,technology-specificallydata-drivenanddigitaltechnology-canhelpleadersmanagethemountingrisksassociatedwithclimateimpactsandunlocknewopportunitiesalongtheway.Anemergingsetoftechnologies-allsynergisticwithartificialintelligence(AI)andadvancedmputing-supportacomprehensivestrategyforadaptationandplayakeyroleateachstageoftheadaptationcycle'':Comprehendingrisksandopportunities-Al,Earthobservation,theinternetofthings(IoT)anddronesaretransforminghowleadersgather,processandanalyseinformation.ThesetechnologiesprovideintelligenceonhowtheEarthischangingattheplanetarylevelandhowtheimpactsmaybefeltbybusinessesandlocalcommunities.Buildingresilienceagainstclimateimpacts-Alishelpingbuildresilienceintocriticalinfrastructure,suchasfloodmanagementsystems,throughoptimizationandreal-timemaintenance.EarthobservationandIoTarebringingnewprecisiontocriticalresiliencetlssuchasearly-warningsystems.Respondingdynamicallywhenimpactshit-Earthobservation,alongwithdrones,canprovideaviewofhard-to-reachareasintheaftermathofanextremeevent.Dronesarealsobeingusedtomakedeliveriesofemergencyaidandsupportsearch-and-rescueoperations.Al,scapabilitiesforpredictionandoptimizationimprovesituationalawareness.Theclimatecrisisdemandsadaptation.Data-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesalreadyplayamission-criticalroleinadaptationeffortsacrosstheworld;theyarepoisedforscaledadoptionandgreaterimpactwhensupportedbyopencollaboration,improvedfinancingandanenablingpolicyenvironment.IntroductionTowardsatechnology-ledapproachtoclimateadaptation.Itisofficial-2023wasthehottestyearinrecordedhistory?JunewasthewarmestJuneonrecord,JulythewarmestJuly,AugustthewarmestAugust,SeptemberthewarmestSeptemberandOctoberthewarmestOctober.2Acrosstheyear,roughlyoneineverythreedaysbreachedthe1.5eCthreshold.3Climatechangeisacceleratingatanunprecedentedpace.Thefalloutisevident.4Thenumberofextremeweatherevents,suchasheatwaves,wildfiresandhurricanes,hasincreasedinrecentyears.5Ifthesetrendspersist,extremeeventscouldincreaseto5606ayearby2030-1.5aday-representinga40%increaseover2015.7Inadditiontohumansuffering,thecostsarehuge;in20221naturaldisasterscostgovernmentsandbusinessesover$200billion-40%greaterthantheannualaverageforthepast20years(excludingearthquakes).8Extremeweathereventsarenottheonlyimpactsofclimatechange.Slowonsetevents,9suchasincreasingglobaltemperatures,aredamagingagriculture,biodiversityandhumanhealth.Glaciersandpolaricecapsaremelting,withrisingsealevelsthreateningcoastalcommunitiesthrougherosion,floodingandsaltwaterintrusion.Seasonalprecipitationpatternsarechanging,resultingingreaterrainfallinsomeareasanddesertificationinothers.TheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme'sDavidJensenstates,hI11manypartsoftheworld,thepredictabilitythatusedtoexistinseasonalweatherpatternsissimplygone*'.FIGURE1AllindustriesareexposedtosomelevelofclimateriskthroughacuteandchronichazardsInfrastructure阖OilandgasUtilitiesIndustries(selection)AgricultureManufacturingFashionTransportHealthandluxuryFloodingDrought0<-eSAqdHighertemperatureMeltingice/permafrostEsystemdisruptionEmployeehealthEquipmentefficiency1.owrisk.HighriskIndicativeSealevelriseWaterscarcitySources:BCGanalysis;Zawadzki,Annika,1.orenzoFantiniandGiovanniCovazzi,"ComingtoGripswithCorporateClimateRisk",BCG,20November2023,https:/'wvw>'.tx:g.con'.piib!ic；tions-2023'Connng-tognps-w',-corporate-clrte-risk.BIn2019,theGlobalCommissiononAdaptationestimatedthatinvesting$1.8trillioninclimateadaptationmeasuresby2030couldyield$7.1trillioninnetbenefits.Climatechangetodaythreatenspeople,businessesandnature.Invulnerableregionsacrosstheworld,between3.3and3.6billionpeopleareexposedtotheimpactsofclimatechange.10"Theimpactsofclimatechange,whilefeltglobally,dodependonwhereintheworldyouare.Thevulnerablearehitthehardest/'saysChristerSolheimGundersenofNorwegianAgencyforDevelopmentCooperation(NORAD).Inbusiness,$4trillionincorporateassetscouldbeatriskby2030duetotheimpactsofclimatechange.'1Nearlyeverysectoroftheglobaleconomyisexposedtosomedegreeofclimate-inducedrisk(seeFigure1).Inthenaturalworld,sixofnineplanetaryboundarieshavebeencrossed,12paintingagrimpictureoftheEarth'shealth.Climatic,naturalandsioeconomicsystemsmaybeclosetotippingpoints,whererelativelysmallchangesleadtoirreversibleshifts.Ashistoryshows,itisnotthestrongestspeciesthatsun/ivesnorthemostintelligent-butthosemostadaptabletochange.Thus,theseindicatorsnotonlyheightentheurgencyformitigatinganthropogenicimpactsontheclimatebutalsobringattentiontotheneedforpeople,businessesandgovernmentstoadapt.Inrecentyears,studieshaveestimatedtheenomicdamagesassociatedwithclimateimpactsandthepossiblebenefitsoftacklingthem.In20191theGlobalCommissiononAdaptationestimatedthatinvesting$1.8trillioninclimateadaptationmeasuresby2030couldyield$7.1trillioninnetbenefits.'3Basedontheseestimatesandotheranalyses,anincreasingnumberofgovernmentshaveenactedlawsandissuedprotocolsrelatedtoclimateadaptation.Thenumberofcountrieswithnationaladaptationplansisincreasingyear-on-year.14Moreover,theemergenceofclimate-resilientindustriesandtechnologies,suchasresilientagriculture,havepresentedopportunitiesforgovernmentsandbusinessestouclimate-proof,theirfutures.BOX1ClimateadaptationdefinitionActionstakentoadjustprocesses,practicesandstructurestomoderatepotentialdamagesortobenefitfromopportunitiesassociatedwiththeeffectsofclimatechange.Notes:1.BasedontheUNFCCCdefinition;2.Encompassesactivitiesreferredtoasudimateresilience"or"adaptationandresilience".Numerousadaptationstrategieshavebeendevelopedtomaketheworldmoreresilienttotheimpactsofclimatechange.Theyrangefrombuildingstrongerinfrastructureanddevelopingearlywarningsystemstoimplementingfloodcontrolmeasuresandchangingagriculturalpractices.Thesestrategiesbroadlyfallintofourgroups:regulatory,economic,socioculturalandnaturebased.Takentogether,theseinterdependentstrategiescanbeviewedthroughthelensofwhatclimateandsocialscientistscalladaptivecapacity.15AccordingtoGailWhiteman,ProfessorofSustainabilityattheUniversityofExeterandExecutiveDirectorofArticBasecamp,ttlt,sallaboutbuildingadaptivecapacity.Focusingatthesystemsleveltoadaptoursocial,ecologicalandeconomicprocesses.Indeed,wecanthinkofadaptationasanongoingprocess".Data-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesareuniquelysuitedtobuildadaptivecapacityandtacklethemulti-variable,complexproblemsinvolvedinclimatedecision-making(seeFigure2).Thesetechnologiescandealwiththeinter-connectednessofnatural,socioeconomicandeconomicsystems,copewithmanyvariablesanddegreesofuncertainty,andalignclimateactionacrossmultipletimehorizonsandimperatives.Onthislaterpoint,NaokoIshii,DirectoroftheCenterforGlobalCommonsattheUniversityofTokyo,says,tlAdaptationneedstotakealong-term,strategicviewpoint.Historically,adaptationhasbeenconsideredasashort-termoradhocresponsetospecificevents-separatefrommitigationstrategy.Dataandtechnologycanhelptoalignthesestrategiesforthelong-term."Thisisthekindofintelligencethattheclimatecrisisdemands.FIGURE 2 IGlobalriskslandscapeIntrastateviolenceErosionofhumanrightsTerroristattacksInvoluntarymigrationInterstatearmedconflictPollutionChronichealthconditionsInfectiousdiseasesBiodiversitylossandesystemllapse.DisruptionstocriticalinfrastructureCriticalchangetoEarthsystemsExtremeweathereventsNon-weatherrelatednaturaldisastersCensorshipandsurveillanceNaturalresourceshortagesAdverseoutcomesoffrontiertechnologiesTechnologicalpowerconcentrationCyberinsecuritySocietalpolarizationAdverseoutmesofAltechnologiesConcentrationofstrategicresourcesInsufficientinfrastructureandservices1.ackofeconomicopportunityInflationEconomicdownturnBiological,chemicalornuclearhazards'Disruptionstoasystemicallyimportantsupplychain1.aboursrxjrtages.GeoeconomicconfrontationAssKbleburstsznemploymentIlliciteconomicactivityNodesRiskinfluenceHighMedium1.owEdgesRelativeinfluenceHighMedium1.owRiskcategories.Economic.EnvironmentalGeopolicticalSocietalTechnologicalSource:WorldEconomicForum,GlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey2023-2024,2024Forgloballeaders,publicandprivatealike,data-drivenanddigitaltechnologieswillcreateandprotectvalue.Theywillenableleadersinawiderangeofways,fromsupportingdecision-makingandpoweringscientificdiscoverytochangingbehaviours.Atthesametime,technology-basedadaptationrequirespolicydevelopment,communityengagementandinternationalcooperationtowork.Amultistakeholderapproachisessentialforeffortstoscalerapidlyandadvancetheworld'sresponsetoclimatechange.MappingthetechnologylandscapeAsetofdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesareemergingasmission-criticaltlsforclimateadaptation.FIGURE 3 High-leveldefinitionsArtificialintelligence*Familyofmathematicalandcomputersciencetechniques,includingadvancedanalytics,bigdataanalytics,machinelearning,deeplearningandlargelanguagemodels.rv-DronesUnmannedaerialvehicles(UAVs)thatcanbeequippedwithcameras,coverlargedistancesandcarrysmallamountsofphysicalmaterial.然EarthobservationRemote-sensing(e.g.satellites)orinsitutechniques(e.g.weatherstations)forgatheringinformationaboutactivitiesonEarth.三AdvancedcomputingSuper-computing(includingcloud-based)andquantumcomputingprocessesthatenhancecomputepower,accuracyandspeed.琼lNetworkeddevices(includingsensorsandhand-helddevices)thatworktogethertocollectandsharedataandmonitorsystems.TIARVR*Toolsthatprovideimmersiveexperiences,eitherbysuperimposingdigitalfeaturesonphysicalenvironmentsorusinghardware(e.g.headsets)tofullyimmerseusers.Notes:*Extendeddefinitiononp.16."AugmentedrealityvirtalrealityTechnologiesoftheIndustrialRevolutionhavebeenasignificantdriverofclimatechange16-butnewa