世界经济论坛-量子经济蓝图（英）.docx

WOR1.DECONOMICFORUMIncollaborationwithIBMandSandboxAQQuantumEconomyBlueprintINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Preface5Executivesummary6Introduction71 Themesandbuildingblocks151.1 Theme1:TranSformativecapabilities161.2 Theme2:Accesstohardwareinfrastructureandthesupplychain201.3 Theme3:Openinnovationandcommercialization261.4 Theme4:Creatingawareness301.5 Theme5:Workforcedevelopment321.6 Theme6:Nationalandeconomicsecurity361.7 Theme7:Cybersecurityandprivacy371.8 Theme8:Governance,responsibleinnovationandstandardization421.9 Theme9:Sustainability462 Blueprintinpractice492.1 Responsibility-based-whoinitiatedthestrategy?502.2 Geographic-scope-based:regionalvsnationalvsstate52Conclusionandnextsteps55Appendix56Contributors58Endnotes60DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasantributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEnomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January2024QuantumEconomyBlueprintForewordJosephS.BrozVice-President,QuantumGrowthandMarketDevelopment,IBMJackHidaryChiefExecutiveOfficer,SandboxAQThemissionofIBMis“tobringusefulquantumcomputingtotheworld',and"tomaketheworldquantumsafe".Itisimportantthatglobalusersofthisnewtechnologyembraceconstructivevaluesofscientificreciprocityandcollaboration,fairtrade,andhonourtheruleoflawwithrespecttointellectualpropertyandcontractualagreement.Asquantumtechnologymaturesandenterstheeraofutility-scalequantumcomputing,itbemesincreasinglyimportantforregional,national,andindustrialconsortiatodevelopstrategiesforusingquantumcapabilitiesthatincorporateandsupportthesevalues.AsofDecember2023,24countrieshavesomeformofnationalinitiativeorstrategytosupportquantumtechnologydevelopment.Manyofthesegovernmentsexplicitlyacknowledgeaneedtoguidetheethical,social,legalandeconomicimplicationsofquantumtechnologies,includingtheimpactoncybersecurityandtheglobalfinancialsystem,bluntthepotentialformonopolizationormilitarizationbycertaincountriesormultinationals,andpromotetheactivediscussionofdataprivacyandequity.Thisblueprintoutlinesthekeyelementsforestablishingvalue-ledstrategiesthatareinclusiveandsupportiveofdemocraticaccesstoquantumcomputingresources.ItprovidesguidancethatenablesthenextstepafteradoptingtheestablishedQUantUmCOmPUtinqGOVernanCePrinCipies.Itallowspolicy-makerstoputthecorevaluesandprinciplesintopracticebydefiningtheirimplementationaspartofacoherentregionalornationalstrategy.Quantumtechnologiescantransformentireindustries,advancehumansocietyandtacklesomeofourworld'sbiggestchallenges.Theinnovationsthesetechnologieswillbringtohealthcare,technology,energyproduction,finance,cybersecurityandmorewillbenefiteveryoneandshouldbesharedforthebettermentofsociety,thesustainabilityoftheplanet,andthewelfareoffuturegenerations.SandboxAQisproudtocollaboratewiththeWorldEnomicForumonitsblueprintforbuildingnationalquantumecosystems.SandboxAQ1Smissionistohelpcorporations,governmentsandresearchinstitutionsharnessthepowerofartificialintelligence(AI)andquantumtechnologiestodeliverbreakthroughsolutionstouniqueandcomplexchallenges.Quantumtechnologiesgowellbeyondquantumcomputerstoincludequantumsensing,quantumnetworking,quantum-safecyberandquantumsimulation.Manyoftheseareasarehavinganimpactrightnow,wellaheadoffault-tolerantquantumcomputers.Alandquantumtecharesynergetictechnologies.Al,forexample,canpullsignalsoutofhighlysensitivequantumsensorsthatdrivekeyapplicationsinmedicineandnavigation.Itwilltakeanorchestrated,globalinitiativetoensurethatthebenefitsofAlandquantumtechnologyaredistributedequitablyamongnationstoavoidthegrowingquantumdivide.TheWorldEconomicForum'svisionforandapproachtothedemocratizationandglobalizationofquantumtechnologieswillhaveabroadandlong-lastingimpactonthefutureofsociety.ForewordJeremyJurgensManagingDirector.WOridEconomicForumUnlockingthepromiseofquantumtechnologiesandstrengtheningtheeffortsindevelopingreal-worldquantumapplicationsrequiresclosepublicprivatecollaborationinresearchanddevelopmentandscalingglobally.TheForum'sQuantumEconomyNetworkaimstoencourageglobalcollaborationandthesharingofknowledge,increasingtheawarenessofthepotentialofthetechnologyandbuildingreadinesstomitigatecybersecurityrisks.TheForumismmittedtoworkingwiththeecosystemtoadvancetheresponsibleinnovationandmmercializationofquantumtechnology.TheQuantumEnomyBlueprintprovidesaroadmaptobuildquantumecosystemsinanequitablemannertopreventawideninggapinquantumcapabilitiesandaccesstoquantumhardwareandinfrastructure,enablingthetransitiontothequantumeconomy.Eachnationorregionmayadoptthevariousbuildingblocksoftheblueprintinamodularandphasedmanner,irrespectiveofwhichquantumtechnologytheyareinvolvedin,basedonthematurityleveloftheirquantumstrategy.Wehopethisblueprintwillserveasavaluablestartingpointtoself-assess,participateandharnessthebenefitsofthequantumeconomyforabetterfutureforhumanity.PrefaceKellyRichdale.ArunimaSarkar,MiraWolf-BauwensRecentprogressinthedevelopmentandapplicationofquantumtechnologies(QT)iselicitingincreasedinterestfromuntries,regionsandorganizations.Notablytheyfocusonquantumtechnology'spotentialtouncoversolutionstoproblemsthatclassicalcomputershavenotsolved-andmayneversolve.TheearlyadopteradvantageWehavewithQT,whichisstillatarelativelyearlystage,helpsusmakedecisionsabouthowandwheretoexplore-andhopefullyreap-thebenefitsofQT.WecanlearnfromthepastandbeproactiveaboutmakingsureQTisbeingdevelopedanddeployedforthebenefitofall.Todoso,well-thought-through,scientificallysoundandsocioeconomicallyholisticQTstrategiesareneeded.ThisiswhattheQuantumEconomyBlueprintintendstoprovide:amomentofreflectiononalready-existingquantumstrategies.TheabstracteddisseminationofcoreelementsofnationalandregionalquantumstrategiesintobuildingblocksenablesotherstoIeamfromexistingexampleswhilealsofurtherdevelopingthebuildingblocksforindividualsuccessfulstrategiesofQTandtherespectiveecosystems.Astheauthors,wehopethatthecorevaluesspecifiedbelow,amongwhichinclusivenessandequitability,inconjunctionwithscientificrigourandglobalcollaborationcontinuetounderpinfutureeffortsasweprepareforthequantumenomy.Thisblueprintcanplayapartinenablingtheequitabledevelopmentofquantumesystemsandbefurtherrefinedaswelearnfromitspilotinginvariousregionsandnations.WewouldliketothanktheForum'sQuantumEnomyNetworkandallntributorstothisinitiativefortheirinsights,experiencesandfeedbackalongtheway.ExecutivesummaryThisreportdisseminateskeyelementsofexistingnationalandregionalquantumstrategiesandbuildsablueprintthatenablesotherstobuildtheirownstrategy.Quantumtechnologies,suchasquantumcomputing,quantumsensingandimaging,andquantumcommunicationsandnetworking,aredrivingnewopportunitiesacrossarangeofindustriesandsectors.Theyarealreadyimpactingkeyareasoftheeconomy,givingrisetonewsolutionstohithertounsolvedproblems,newindustryplayersandinnovativebusinessmodels.ThegoalofthisQuantumEconomyBlueprintistoassistregionsandcountriesininitiating,developing,supportingandcommercializingtheirquantumtechnology(QT)initiativesinthisnewquantumeconomy.Itcanserveasareferenceforpolicymakersandgovernmentinstitutions,industryandacademiatounderstandthedifferentelementsofbuildingaquantumecosystem,aswellastohelpthemdefinewhichpartofthequantumvalueandsupplychaintooccupyandwhichapproachesbestsuitthemtohelpacceleratetheimplementation.Theblueprintenablesunderstandingofthepotentialfornewjobsandeconomicgrowthinthequantumeconomy,aswellasareasforprotectingeconomicsecurity,businessintegrityandcybersecurity.ThereportalsoenablesthedevelopmentofstrategiesforresponsibleandsustainableQTdevelopment,deploymentanduse.ThereportbuildsontheanalysisofexistingnationalandregionalQTstrategies.Itdisseminatesthecoreelementsofthesestrategiesand-basedoninterviewswiththedifferentstakeholdersinvolvedintheirestablishment-abstractsfromtheseexistingstrategiesanddistilstheircontentintheformofoverarchingthemesanddetailedbuildingblocks.Itissuggestedtomapbuildingblockstoatimeline,dependingonacountry'sorregion'sstateinthequantumjourney.Thishelpstoprioritizewhichbuildingblocksthecountryorregionshouldfocusonintheshorterandlongerterms,aswellastosupportthedefinitionoftheirownquantumstrategy.Inreviewingthebuildingblocksandchoosingarelevantapproach,countriesandregionswillobjectivelyconsidertheirstrengthsandweaknesses,considertheirsocialandeconomicidentityandalignwiththeirlong-termpoliticalandindustrialgoals.Allcountriesandregionscanparticipateinthequantumeconomy.Theyneednotnecessarilyoccupytheentirevaluechainorbuildcomplexquantumtechnologies,buttheyshouldconsiderparticipatinginoneformoranother.Thismayinvolvesupplyingcriticalquantumoradjacentcomponents,oritmaymeantrainingalocalquantum-literateworkforce.IntroductionWhatisthequantumeconomyandwhydoesitmatter?Theimpactofquantumtechnology(QT)willbefar-reaching,potentiallyofferingimportantopportunitiesacrossmultipleindustries,leadingtoadvancesinsectorssuchashealthcare,climatechange,energy,communications,financeandothers.Quantumphysicsallowsadeeperunderstandingofthenaturalworld.Itispossibletoharnesstheprinciplesofquantumphysicsfordifferentapplications,suchasquantumcomputing,quantumsensingandquantumcommunicationsandnetworking.Therearesignificanttechnologicaldevelopmentsandincreasesinfundingeveryyear.Forexample,quantumcomputingpromisessignificantcomputationaladvancesandthecapabilitytosolveproblemsthatcannotbesolvedbyclassicalcomputingalone.Newquantumsensingtechnologiesarebeingleveragedindiverseareastodelivergreaterprecisioninmeasuringtime,frequency,acceleration,temperature,rotationandmagneticandelectricfields.Thisimpactsmultiplesectorsoftheenomyandwillunlocknewindustrialapplicationsinhealthcare,aerospace,electronics,geology,energyandmanyothers.Quantumcommunicationsholdsthepromiseofultra-securenetworkingcapabilities.Quantumtechnologieswillimpactmanycriticalindustriesandinspirenewbusinessmodels.Diversetechnologiessuchasquantumcomputing,quantumcommunications,quantumsensingandquantummaterialshavegivenrisetonewindustryplayersandpromisingsolutionsforendusers,greatersustainabilityandnewsolutionstohithertounsolvedproblems.Someofthesetechnologiesarealreadybeingdeployedandothersaredevelopingatarapidrate.Quantumtechnologywilleventuallypermeateandimpacteverykeysectoroftheeconomyandtakeusintoaperiodlikelytobereferredtoasthe4post-quantumera,.Thisiscollectivelycreatinganeconomicimpactandadistinctiveeconomicecosystemdrivenbyquantumtechnologies,whichwerefertoasthequantumeconomy.WorldEconomicForumGlobalFutureCouncilontheQuantumEconomyiThequantumeconomywillbefuelledbydisruptive,far-reachinginnovationthatultimatelyfiltersthroughoutmultiplefieldsandsectors.Forexample,apositivefeedbackloopcouldbeformedasthediscoveryofnewmaterialsmightenableadvancesinquantumcomputingcapabilities.Theseadvancedcapabilities,inturn,couldbeappliedtoexploringmoreefficientandbeneficialmaterials.Whiletherewillbebenefitstothesedisruptions,risks,suchasquantumcomputing'sthreattocybersecurity,needtobemanaged.Theemergingquantumeconomywillbeunderpinnedbyentirevaluechainnnectingproducerstonsumersinwaysthatgowellbeyondtraditionalquantumfields.Therewillbeaninevitablecrossoverwithexistingsupplychainnetworksforsemiconductors,nanotechnologyandintegratedphotonics,forexample.Nosinglenationcanbeexpectedtosustainalltheelementsnecessaryforathrivingquantumeconomy,andsoprogresswillrelyoninternationalcollaborationandthecreationofinternationaltradeagreementsspecificallydesignedtofacilitatethenecessaryflowofvalueacrossborders.Needforaquantumblueprint:theriskofa“quantumdivide"Theglobalquantumeffortleadingtoresearchandinnovationinquantumscienceandtechnologyisntinuallyrising,withcurrentworldwidepublicsectorinvestmentsexceeding$39billion.Overall,theglobalQTmarketisprojectedtoreach$106billionby2040.zDisparitiesinaccesstoexistingtechnologieshavealreadycreatedadigitaldivide:2.9billionPeOPle4arestillofflineanddonotbenefitfromthedigitaleconomy.Thegrowingglobalquantumdividebetweenuntrieswithestablishedquantumtechnologyprogrammesandthosewithoutwillleadtosignificantimbalancesincoreareassuchascybersecurity,defence,healthcare,finance,manufacturingandmore.Unequalaccesstoquantumtechnologyhasanegativeimpactonmultiplelevels,includingoncountries'abilitytoraiseawarenessandbuildaquantum-literateworkforce,participateinresearchanddevelopment,andreapthebenefitsofQT.Therearealsocybersecurityandgeopoliticalimplications.ThisputsthosecountrieswosequantumprogrammesarelessdevelopedindangerOffallingfurtherbehind.Thisreportisbasedonananalysisofthemainprogrammesandeffortsaroundtheworld.Whileaglobalecosystemeffortisneededtosuccessfullydevelopanddeployquantumtechnologies,thecurrentstateofquantumeffortsisconcentratedincertaincountries.Hence,thisblueprintaimstoprovideastartingpointandknowledge-sharingbasisaboutkeyelementsofaquantumtechnologystrategyandbestpractices.FIGURE1PublicsectorinvestmentsinquantumtechnologiesworldwideGlobalquantumefforts:$39billion(estimate)CanadaHCAD1.41billion=$1.1billionUSNationalQuantumInitiative$3.75billionDenmarkiSDKK2.7billion=$406millionNetherlands"965million=$1billionUnitedKingdom£3.5billion=$4.3billionFrance1.8billion=$2.2billionSpainC60million=$67millionSwedenSEK1.6billion=$160million4-FinlandC24million=27millionZlsraelI1.S1.2billion=$390millionIndiaZINR60billion=$735millionRussiaRUB100billion=$1.45billionChina$15billionXSouthKoreaKRW3.05trillion=$2.35billionJapanJPY80billion=$700millionSwitzerland©CHF10BBlicl=$11millionBrazil®BR1.60million=$12millionGermany*3billion=$3.3billionAustria107miiiion=$127millionEuropeanQuantumFlagshi>1billion=$1.1billionQatar$10millionThailand匡H球200million=$6millionCHungaryHUF3.5billion=$11million爰SouthAfricaR54million=$3millionTaiwan,ChinaTWD8billion=$282million>PhilippinesPHP860million=$17.2millionAustraliaAUD893million=$599millionSingaporeSGD185million=$138million9NewZealand$36.75millionNote:Notexhaustive;timelinesforfundingvarybycountry.Sources:'OverviewofQuantumInitiativesWorldwide2023",QURECA,19July2023,httDsQoverview-of-antum-initiatives-worldwide-2023/:DepartmentofIndustry,ScienceandResources,Australia.Inanattempttooutlinethecorevaluesandprinciplesgoverningthedevelopmentanddeploymentofquantumcomputing,apreviousreportbytheForum1theQuantumComputingGovernancePrinciples,servesasthecorevalues,themesandprinciplesinquantumcomputing.sWhilethiscur