世界银行-世界银行通过国际开发协会融资支持就业和劳动力市场改革：第一阶段评估（英）-2024.1.docx

©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashington,DC20433Telephone:Internet:www.worldbank.orgATTRIBUTIONPleasecitethereportas:WorldBank.2024.WorldBankSupporttoJobsand1.aborMarketReformthroughInternationalDevelopmentAssociationFinancing:AFirst-StageEvaluation.IndependentEvaluationGroup.Washington,DC:WorldBank.COVERPHOTOMarwaneZouaidiEDITINGANDPRODUCTIONAmandaO,BrienGRAPHICDESIGN1.uisaUlhoaVondaWitleyThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONSThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven.Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications.TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW1Washington.DC20433,USA;fax:；e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.WorldBankSupporttoJobsand1.aborMarketReformthroughInternationalDevelopmentAssociationFinancingAFirst-StageEvaluationJanuary4f2024ContentsAbbreviationsvAcknowledgmentsviOverviewviiManagementResponsexviReporttotheBoardfromtheCommitteeonDevelopmentEffectivenessxx1. IntroductionITheEvolvingJobsAgendainInternationalDevelopmentAssociationCountries4EvaluationScopeandFramework72. TheInternationalDevelopmentAssociationJobsStrategy15AnalyticalUnderpinning16OperationalRelevance18ResultsMeasurement223. JobsInterventions26PortfolioEvolution27DesignofJobsInterventions35Performance424. ConclusionsandRecommendations50Recommendations5255BibliographyBoxesBox2.1.JobsinFragileandConflict-AffectedSituations20Box3.1.ExampleofApprenticeshipInterventions38FiguresFigure 1.1. Trendsin1.aborForceandEmploymentRatiosforIDACountriesComparedwithIBRDCountries3Figure 1.2. EvolutionofInternationalDevelopmentAssociationJobsStrategy,FY15-226Figure 1.3. ConceptualFramework8Figure 1.4. EvaluationScope9Figure 3.1. IDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFinancingsandPrograms-for-ResultsbeforeandaftertheShiftinIDAJobsStrategy28Figure 3.2. ChangeinProportionofDifferentTypesofInterventionsinuSynthetic,*JobsPortfolio30Figure 3.3. TopAreasofInterventionsforPriorActionsacrossIDAReplenishments34Figure 3.4. ProjectCountsbyOutcomeRatingsinImplementationCompletionandResultsReportReview43TablesTable 1.1. IDAJobs-RelatedPortfolioby1.endingInstrumentandProjectStatus,FY15-2210Table 1.2. GeographicDistributionofIDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFinancingandProgram-for-ResultsPortfolio,FY15-2211Table 1.3. PracticeGroupsandGlobalPracticesManagingIDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFinancingandProgram-for-ResultsPortfolio,FY15-2212Table2.1.BreakdownofOutcome-1.evelVersusOutput-1.evelIndicatorsofJobsInterventions24Table 3.1. ShareofIDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFinancingandProgram-for-ResultsPortfolioinTotalIDAProjectsoverIDAReplenishmentCycles,FY15-2228Table 3.2. Cross-GlobalPracticeCollaborationonJobs-RelatedProjectsbySelectedGlobalPractices32Table 3.3. CollaborationacrossPracticeGroupsonJobs-RelatedProjects33Table 3.4. TypesofJobsInterventionsinthePortfolioandStrengthofEvidence35Table 3.5. IndicatorAnalysis43Table 3.6. ExtentofProblemProjectsintheActiveIDA-FinancedJobs-RelatedandNonjobs-RelatedPortfolios,FY15-2245Table 3.7. ExamplesofJobsOutcomeIndicatorsbyTypesofInterventions48AppendixesAppendix A. Methods64Appendix B. PortfolioIdentificationandAnalysis73Appendix C. Structured1.iteratureReview91Appendix D. ExamplesofJobsPriorActions102Appendix E. FindingsfromRelatedIndependentEvaluationGroupEvaluations106Appendix F. InternationalDevelopmentAssociationJobsStrategyPolicyCommitmentsandResultsIndicators112-ndependemEvacat,nGroUPWorldBankGroUPAbbreviationsCPFCountryPartnershipFrameworkDPOdevelopmentpolicyoperationFCVfragility,conflict,andviolenceFYfiscalyearGPGlobalPracticeIDAInternationalDevelopmentAssociationIDA1717thReplenishmentoftheInternationalDevelopmentAssociationIEGIndependentEvaluationGroupIFCInternationalFinanceCorporationIPFinvestmentprojectfinancingPforRProgram-for-ResultsRMSResultsMeasurementSystemSMEsmallandmediumenterpriseTVETtechnicalandvocationaleducationandtrainingAUdollaramountsareUSdollarsunlessotherwiseindicated.AcknowledgmentsNUonp一MolnP<suoubsll.UoR.suossvuEd。一>CImUOQBUJU-qonnoSUUOJaaIXBWOqBqPUBSqorOjlJoddnS>UBgPtOMThisevaluationwascarriedoutbyanIndependentEvaluationGroupteamledbyRashmiShankar(leadeconomist).Thereport'smainauthorisEstelleRaimondo(programmanager).ThetaskwasconductedundertheguidanceofJeffreyAllenChelsky(manager),thedirectionofTheoThomas(director),andtheoverallguidanceofSabineBernabe(Director-General,Evaluation).ThecoreevaluationteamincludedPatriciaAcevedo(programassis-tant);HarshAnuj(datascientist);DungThiKimChu(programassistant);ShahrzadMobasherFard(consultant,evaluator);ProfessorGaryFields(consultant,seniortechnicaladviser);PabloFleiss(technicaladviser);1.arsJohannes(senioreconomist);ThomasKenyon(senioreconomist);DorukYarinKiroglu(portfolioanalyst);MelissaMetz(senioreconomist);DenitaPious(researchanalystandconsultant);AndreaRojas(consultantandevaluator);RashmiShankar(taskteamleaderandleadeconomist);XiaolunSun(seniorevaluationofficer);SandraJaneWark(consultantandevaluator);AndreiWong(portfolioanalystandconsultant);andMarwaneZouaidi(extended-termconsultantandprojectofficer).Thereportwaspeer-reviewedbyDr.GordonBetcherman(professor,FacultyofSocialSciences,SchoolofInternationalDevelopmentandGlobalStudies,UniversityofOttawa)andAbebeShimeles(directorofresearch,AfricanEconomicResearchConsortium,Nairobi,Kenya).TheteamisgratefultotheIndependentEvaluationGroupMethodsteamandtocolleaguesfromtheJobsGroup,GlobalPractices,InternationalFinanceCorporation,developmentfinanceinstitutions,OperationsPolicyandCountryServices,andRegions,aswellasexternalstakeholdersforextensiveconsultations.OverviewKeyMessagesThisevaluationrepresentsthefirststageoftheIndependentEvaluationGroup,sassessmentoftheWorldBank,sperformanceinsupportingmore,better,andmoreinclusivejobsthroughInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA)financing.Thescopeofthisevaluationisrelativelynarrow,focusingondirectIDAsupporttotheachievementofIDA,sjobsobjectives.Additionalevaluationswouldberequiredtoconsiderthebroaderjobsandeconomictransformationagenda.TheevaluationassessestheanalyticalunderpinningsandoperationalrelevanceoftheevolvingIDAjobsstrategyandtheextenttowhichithasbeentranslatedintowell-designedandwell-performingjobsinterventionsthatdirectlyaddresstheobjectivesofmore,better,andmoreinclusivejobs.TheIDAjobsstrategysuccessfullystimulatedcountryanalyticsanddiagnosticstofillknowledgegaps.IDApolicycommitmentsadaptedwelltoreflectlearningfromjobsdiagnostics.Mostjobsdiagnosticshaveincorporatedrecommendationsthat(i)feedintooperationalworkandimprovehowCountryPartnershipFrameworksarticulatejobs-relatedobjectivesandtheoriesofchangeand(ii)helpmakejobsmorecentraltoengagementswithcountriesaffectedbyfragility,conflict,andviolence.TheenhancedfocusonjobsinIDA,soverallstrategyhasnotbeenassociatedwithasignificantincreaseinthesizeofthejobsportfoliobuthasledtoachangeinthemixofjobsinterventions.Thedesignofmostjobsinterventionswaswellgroundedinanalysis(includingimpactevaluation),andprojectsadequatelycombinedmultipleinterventions.TheIDAjobsstrategyprioritizationofyouthandwomen,semploymentresultedinmorefocusonthesetwobeneficiarygroupsinjobsinterventions.Theuseofjobs-relevantdevelopmentpolicyfinancingprioractionshasincreasedsteadily,yettheyremaininfrequentandhavehadanimpactonlyInone-thirdofvalidatedoperations.However,theIDAjobsstrategy,spromiseOfimprovedresultsmeasurementhasyettobefulfilled.Althoughimpactevaluationsaremorefrequent,resultsframeworkscontinuetotrackoutputsratherthanoutcomes,andmanycountries,labormarketstatisticsarestilllacking.Overall,theperformanceofjobsinterventionsunderimplementationisontrack.Two-thirdsofjobs-relatedindicatorsinprojectsthathavepassedtheirMid-TermReviewswereontracktomeettheirtargets.However,littleisknownabouttheeffectivenessoftheinterventionsbecauseofweaknessesinresultsmeasurementorincountry-levelstatisticalsystemsmeasuringlabormarketdevelopments.-dependentEVahJationGroUPWor1.dBankGrOUPIXMore,better,andmoreinclusivejobsarecriticalforpovertyreductionandsharedprosperityincountrieseligibleforInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA)financing.Since2014,IDAhasincludedjobsasaspecialtheme,andsubsequentIDAReplenishmentshavehadwhatthisevaluationtermsan“IDAjobsstrategy,“withexplicitobjectives,aseriesofpolicycommitmentstoachievethem,andresultsindicatorstotrackthem.ThisevaluationisthefirstinapotentialseriestoaddresstheWorldBank'scontributiontothejobsagenda,andassuchhasafocusedscope.ItassessestheimplementationoftheIDAjobsStrategyandanswerstwoquestions.ThefirstistowhatextentIDAzsstrategyonjobswasgroundedinsoundanalytics,adaptive,andoperationallyrelevant.Thesecondistowhatextentthestrategyhasbeentranslatedintorelevantandeffectivejobsinterventionsthatdirectlyaddresstheobjectivesofmore,better,andmoreinclusivejobs.Theevaluationisbasedonaconceptualframeworkthatidentifiesthreedirect,interrelatedchannelsthroughwhichIDAsupportforjobsobjectivesispursued:actingonlabordemand(includingeffortstoexpandthedemandofprivatesectorfirmsforworkersandcreatetheconditionsforreliableandadequatelyremuneratedself-employment);increasinglaborsupply(includingeffortstoimprovethemarketableskillsofworkers,expandthelaborforceparticipationofwomen,andsupportyouthemployment);andimprovinglabormarketflexibility(includingpoliciestofacilitatethemovementofworkersfromlower-productivitytohigher-productivityactivitieswithinsectors,andfromlower-value-addedtohigher-value-addedsectors)andgeographicmobilitywherelackofmobilityisidentifiedasasignificantconstraintinjobsdiagnostics.TheevaluationfocusesonIDA-supportedinterventionsthatdirectlysupportjobsobjectivesacrossthethreeReplenishmentcyclesfromfiscalyears2015to2022.Althoughthestructuralchangeassociatedwitheconomictransformationislinkedtojobsandgrowth,thescopeofthisevaluationislimitedtothethreemainchannelsforachievingIDAjobsobjectives.Therefore,wedonotevaluatetheimplementationandeffectivenessoftheeconomictransformationagenda,given(i)itsverybroadpurviewand(ii)thedifficultiesinherentinmeasuringthevolumeandimpactofWorldBankfinancingforeconomictransformationandhowitisintermediatedthroughresultsindicatorsattheprojectorCountryPartnershipFrameworklevels.J>oonuuUEUu:UoRBuossvJUEdo>-BUOABuJU-no-lInEOjJE受Oqe-JPUBSqoro二OddnSXUegPPoMXThecontributionthroughtheIDAPrivateSectorWindowisalsooutsidethescopeofthisevaluation,whichisbeingpresentedalongsidetheevaluationofthePrivateSectorWindowbytheIndependentEvaluationGroup.InternationalDevelopmentAssociationEvolvingJobsStrategyTheevaluationfindsthat,throughthedeploymentofjobsdiagnostics,the17thReplenishmentofIDA(IDA17)andIDA18policycommitmentshelpedaddresssignificantknowledgegaps.Previouscountryanalyticsdidnotfocusonjobs,withlittleattentiontothefactorsthatinfluencelabormarketoutcomesinIDAcountries.Mostjobsdiagnosticsprovidedactionablerecommendations.Intwo-thirdsofcases,theseweretailoredtocountrycontextsando仔eredguidanceonprioritization,evenifveryfewdistinguishedbetweenshort-termandlong-terminterventions.TherewasalsoarobustfeedbackloopbetweenevidencefromjobsdiagnosticsandsubsequentIDAcycles.Policycommitmentsevolvedovertimetoreflectlearningfromcountryevidenceandexperience-forexample,withrespecttotheimportanceofcomplementinginterventionsaimedatraisingproductivityinagriculture(toimproveearnings)withinterventionsthatpromoteagribusiness(tocreatenewjobs)inIDA18.TheIDAjobsstrategyandjobsdiagnosticscontributedtoabetterarticulationofjobs-relatedobjectives,theoriesofchange,andresultsframeworksinCountryPartnershipFrameworks.Whereaspreviouslysupportforjobshadbeenimplicit,typicallyoccurringthroughbusinessenvironmentreforms,accesstofinance,orimprovementinagriculturalproductivity,thestrategynudgedCountryPartnershipFrameworkstowardamoreexplicitandcoherentstatementofthejobsagenda.Thesharperfocusonjobsincountrystrategiesisassociatedwithaslightincreaseintherelativesizeoftheportfolio.TheestimatedaverageannualsharesoftheIDAjobs-relatedportfoliointhetotalprojectcountandvalueofcommitmentsofallIDAprojectsincreasedslightlyovertheevaluationperiod.Therewasalsoapronouncedeffectonengagementswithcountriesaffectedbyfragility,conflict,andviolence(FCV).IDA17policycommitmentsundertheFCVpillarledtothedevelopmentofaspecificintegratedjobsstrategyforcountriesaffectedbyFCV.Asaresult,thejobsportfolioincountriesaffectedbyFCVputgreateremphasisonyouthemploymentandtheeconomicinclusionofdisplacedpeople.However,theIDAjobsstrategy'spromisesofimprovedresultsmeasurementhavenotyetbeenfulfilled.Althoughimpactevaluationsaremorefrequent,resultsframeworkscontinuetotrackoutputsratherthanoutcomes,andmostcountries'labormarketstatisticsarestilllacking.ThereisaninherenttensionbetweentheIDAjobsstrategy'sambitionofbettercapturingjobsoutcomesandthesystemsandincentivesunderlyingresultsframeworks.AlthoughIDAResultsMeasurementSystemTier2indicatorscaptureintermediateoutcomesfromIDAfinancing,1attheprojectlevel,teamsmaybediscouragedfromincludingappropriateoutcome-levelindicatorsinresultsframeworks,partlyoverconcernsaboutattribution.Drawingontheexperiencewithimprovingthefocusongenderinoperations,IDAResultsMeasurementSystemTier3indicatorscouldalsobettercapturehowwellIDAoperationsarticulateandtrackcontributionstojobsoutcomes.WorldBankanalysishasalsohighlightedsomeofthetechnicaldifficultiesinestimatingtheindirectimpactofIDA,sinterventionsonjobscreated,whichiscomplexanddataintensive.2JobsInterventions-ndependentEvacatnGroUPWOrSBankGrOuP×IDAcommitmentsprovokedachangeinthemixofjobsinterventionsintheportfolio.First,consistentwiththeIDA19commitmenttohelpremovebottlenecksinsectorswithhighpotentialforprivatesector-ledjobcreation,therewasanincreaseinprojectsaddressinglabordemandinformalfirms,insomecasesaccompaniedbyanexplicitfocusoneconomicdiversificationthroughsupportforspecificvaluechains.Second,therewasashifttowardsupportforagribusinessandagriculturalvaluechains,consistentwithIDA,spriorityofgrowingjobsinthefoodsystem.Third,therewasanincreaseintheproportionofjobs-relevantprojectsthatsoughttheparticipationofyouthandwomenandofprojectsspecificallyseekingtoi