世界银行-卢旺达发展政策行动创造的就业机会：清洁能源转型创造就业机会的潜力（英）-2024.3_市场.docx

paN-o£n<alnsoosQq-qndJOBSGENERATEDBYTHERWANDADEVE1.OPMENTSTUDY1PO1.ICYiOPERATIONSU-ooQJobCreationPotentialoftheOsCleanEnergyTransitionQ-e11soosQo-qnd泰ESMAP忠加丽MAMMCASESTUDYJOBSGENERATEDBYTHERWANDADEVE1.OPMENTPO1.ICYOPERATIONSIoh9ClzanK3o4*ar4soICJU1.JJtDauuiIIU1.DIIliaiUlICleanEnergyTransitionESMAP,THFWORI口BANKfIBRDIDAABOUTESMAPTheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankandover20partnerstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsus-tainableenergysolutis.ESMAP,sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBank,suntryfinancingandpolicydialogueintheenergysector.ThroughtheWoridBank,ESMAPworkstoacceleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(SDG7)zwhichensuresaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andIthelpsshapeWoridBankstrategiesandprogramstoachievetheWorldBank'sQimateChangeActionPlantargets.1.earnmoreat:https:/www.esmap.org.©November2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:;Internet:www.worldbank.orgThisworkisaproductoftheWorldBank,withcontributionsgivenbythestaffandcsultantslistedintheacknowledgments.Thefindings,interpretations,andndusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankncerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallcstituteorbecsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RightsandPermissionsThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:/creativecommons.orglicensesby3.0igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution-Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP).2023.JobsGeneratedbytheRwandaDevelopmentPolicyOperations:JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition.ESMAPCaseStudy.Washington,DC:TheWorldBank.1.icense:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations-Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnoteatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.Adaptations-Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-PartyContent-TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythirdparty-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofdaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithy.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ProductionCreditsDesignerCirdeGraphics,Inc.CoverImage©OliverKnight/WorldBankPhotosIp.x,p.10,p.28,p.36©SarahFarhaVWoHdBank,p.4©AzMeIody1.ee/WorldBank,p.14©OliverKnight/WorldBankAllimagesremainthesolepropertyoftheirsourceandmaynotbeusedforanypurposewithoutwrittenpermissionfromthesource.ContentsAcknowledgmentsvAboutthisReportviAcronymsviiKeyFindingsviii1. Introduction12. SummaryofRelevantEnergySectorInterventions53. ObjectivesandOverallMethodology114. Results155. Discussion296. Conclusion37References43Appendix A. SupportingTables46Appendix B. Exploring日ectricityasaConstraintforEnterprisesEngagedinAccommodationandFoodServicesActivities531.istofTablesandFigures1.istofTablesTable 1. OverviewofKeyInformantInterviews12Table 2. EvolutionofElectricityTariffs,1994-202018Table 3. Key1.aborForceIndicators,2017and202019Table 4. OccupationsofEmployedPopulationbyAreaz2017and202020Table 5. EmployedPopulationbyBranchofEconomicActivity,2020Versus201721Table 6. GrossDomesticProductbySector(inRF,BillionsatConstant2017Prices)23Table 7. DistributionandChangeofEstablishmentsbyInstitutionalSector(Numberand%)24Table 8. ChangeintheNumberofPrivateEstablishmentsandBusiness-OrientedMixedEstablishmentsbyEnomicActivity,2014-2026TableA.lPriorActionsUndertheSeriesoftheThreeDevelopmentPolicyOperationsandRelatedResultsIndicators46TableA.2EvolutionoftheElectricityTariffRegime,1994-202050TableA.3DisaggregationofEmployedPopulationbyBranchOfEnomicActivity,2020Versus2017521.istofFiguresFigure 1. TheoryofChangefortheDPOSeries7Figure 2. EvolutionofInstalledCapacity(MW)15Figure 3. EvolutionofElectricityAccess(%ofPopulation)16Figure 4. EvolutionofAnnualNumberandDurationofOutagesBetween2017and202117Figure 5. Selected''BiggestObstaclezzforRwandanEnterprises30Figure 6. ectricityRelatedChallenges,2006,2011,and201931Figure 7. RankingofFactorsbytheExtentofTheirImpactonFormalBusinesses32Figure 8. ImpactofElectricityAvailabilityonFormalEnterprises(%)32Figure 9. JobCreationPatternsinthePrivateSector,2006z2011zand201934Figure 10. RevisedTheoryofChangefortheDPOSeries(toAcuntforEmploymentImpacts)40CONTENTSAcknowledgmentsThisworkwasmadepossiblebytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withfinancialsupportfromtheRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairsofDenmark.ESMAPisapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand19donorstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ThereportwaspreparedbyateamcoordinatedbyZuzanaDobrotkova(SeniorEnergySpecialist)andcomprisingofSheoliPargal(1.eadEnergyEconomist),AnnaAghababyan(SeniorOperationsOfficer)andAndersPedersen(SeniorEnergySpecialist).TheworkwasinitiatedundertheguidanceofRohitKhanna(PracticeManager,ESMAP)andcompletedunderGabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager,ESMAP)zwithoverallstrategicdirectionprovidedbyDemetriosPapathanasiou(GlobalDirector,EnergyandExtractivesGlobalPractice).AteamfromtheconsultingcompanyMathematica,consistingofFarazUsmanizDuncanChaplinzPatriciaCostazSarah1.eserzandSaraBrykzcollectedbackgroundmaterialandconductedupstreamresearchforthiscasestudy.Theteamacknowledgestheimportantinputs,insightsandassistancereceivedfromYadvigaSemikolenova(PracticeManager),JoernHuenteler(SeniorEnergySpecialist),NorahKipwola(SeniorEnergySpecialist),andArunSingh(EnergySpecialist)andWorldBankconsultantsStephaniePinningtonzNicolasFichauxandKavitaRai.Editor:FayreMakeig.AboutthisReportThisreportpresentsthefindingsandCondusionsofacasestudyundertakenunderaprogramofanalyticalworkthatinvestigatestheimpactsoftheglobaltransitiontocleanenergyonthequantityandqualityofjobsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Undertheprogram,entitled''EstimatingtheJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition/7theWorldBank'sEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)undertookmultiplestreamsofanalysis: Areviewoftheliteratureandcommonlyusedmethodologiesofinvestigation ModelingofeconomywidejobimpactsofpoliciessupportingthecleanenergytransitioninselectedcountriesinSub-SaharanAfrica CasestudiesoftheeffectsonemploymentofselectedWorldBankcleanenergyprojects Deepdivesintotheimpactonjobsofclosureofcoal-firedpowerplants;ofproductiveusesofelectricityassociatedwithminigridsinNigeria;andoftheRusumoFallsHydropowerProject.Buildingontheabove-mentionedsteamsofanalysis,theprogramhasalsoproducedahigh-levelreportsummarizingitsfindingsandconclusions"Jobsfora1.ivablePlanet:JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransitionz,andadiscussionpapertosupportprojectdesign''TrackingJobsinProjectsFocusedonCleanEnergyandProductiveUsesofElectricityzzzprovidingstrategiesfortrackingandenhancingjobcreationthatcanbeusedinthecleanenergyprojects.Thereportsdevelopedunderthisprogramtogetheraimtosupportlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesinreapinggreatersocioeconomicbenefitsfromtheenergytransitionbysupportingtheminincreasingthenumberandqualityoflocaljobsgeneratedwhileimplementingcleanenergyprojects.Realizingthebenefitsofthejobscreatedbycleanenergyinterventionswilldependoneffectiveplanningandpreparationintheearlystagesofprojectsandsustainedsupportduringtheirimplementation.Thereportstargetmultipleaudiences,frompolicymakerstodevelopmentpractitionersandacademics.Theyalsoaimtofamiliarizeenergyspecialistswiththeeffectsofenergyprojectsonjobsandgivethemtlsthatenablethemtotakeaccountofand,wherepossible,maximizethesocioeconomicbenefitsofthecleanenergytransition.Thereportscanbefoundathttps:/www.esmap.org/publications.AboutthisreportAcronymsDPODevelopmentPolicyOperationEDPRS-IISecondEconomicDevelopmentandPovertyReductionECEstablishmentCensusEUC1.EnergyUtilityCorporation1.imitedGDPgrossdomesticproductGoRGovernmentofRwanda1.FS1.aborForceSurveyMWmegawattREGRwandaEnergyGroupWBESWorldBankEnterpriseSurveyAllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$,USD),unlessotherwiseindicated.KeyFindingsTheWorldBanksupportedtheGovernmentofRwandaininstitutionalizingleast-costprinciplesforpower-sectorexpansionthroughaseriesofthreeconsecutiveannualDevelopmentPolicyOperations(DPOs)between2017/18and2019/20.TheobjectivewastoenablefiscallysustainableexpansionofelectricityservicesinRwandawhileimprovingoperationalefficiency,affordability,andaccountability.ThecasestudyfoundthatwhiletherewassomeassociationbetweenelectricityreformsandjobcreationinRwanda,thelinkwasnotstraightforward,andtheimpactonformalemploymentwaslimited.Otherfactorsandconstraints,aswellasthetimerequiredforinfrastructureimprovementstotranslateintoemploymentoutcomes,mayhaveplayedsignificantrolesinshapingthelabormarket.Keyfindingsfromthecasestudywere:JobCreationandElectricityReforms: Approximately600,000jobswerecreatedinRwandabetween2017and2020. Whiletherewassomecorrelationbetweenthepowerreformsandjobcreation,evidenceofadirectlinkismixed. Over75%ofthenewjobswereintheagriculturesector,whichhaslowelectricityconsumption. Employmentinmanufacturingincreased,butitsshareintotalemploymentdecreased,suggestinglimitedemploymentimpactfrompower-sectorreforms. Otherfactors,suchasaccesstofinance,mayhavebeenkeyinhibitorsofemploymentexpansion. Improvedelectricityqualityandaccessmayhaveboostedlaborproductivityratherthanincreasingthenumberofjobs.1.imitationsoftheStudy: Theanalysisreliedonavailabledataandsimplepre-postcomparisons,whichmaynotcaptureallfactorsinfluencingemploymentoutcomes. It'spossiblethatsufficienttimehadnotyetelapsedforelectricityinfrastructureimprovementstofullyimpactemployment. ThestudydidnotdistinguishhowtheDPOseriesaffectedemployment:byimprovingelectricityservices,reducingfiscaltransfers,orprovidingadditionalresourcestotheGoR. Establishment-andenterprise-leveldatasetsusedfocusedonformalfirms,potentiallymissinginformaljobexpansions.EmploymentnotanObjectiveofDPO:Jobcreationandlabor-marketimprovementswerenotprimaryobjectivesoftheDPOseries,butthestudyoffersinsightintohowchangesinelectricityaccessandqualitymayaffectlaboroutcomesovertime.Insummary,whiletherewassomeassociationbetweenelectricityreformsandjobcreationinRwanda,thelinkwasnotstraightforward,andtheimpactonformalemploymentwaslimited.Otherfactorsandconstraints,aswellasthetimerequiredforinfrastructureimprovementstotranslateintoemploymentoutcomes,mayhaveplayedsignificantrolesinshapingthelabormarket.ONEINTRODUCTIONThiscasestudyseekstoassessthedegreetowhichemploymenttrendsinRwandawereimpactedbypowersectorreformssupportedbyaseriesofthreeconsecutiveWorldBankDevelopmentPolicyOperations(DPOs)叩ProVedbetween2017/18and2019/20.Itdoessobydrawingoninformationfromadministrativeandsecondarydataalongwithinterviewstohighlightthelinkbetweenobservedsector-specificemploymentchangesovertimeandDPO-Supportedactivities.Rwandawitnessedsubstantialpovertyreductionduetosustainedeconomicgrowthatthebeginningofthetwenty-firstcentury.Between2010/11and201617ztheeconomygrewatjustunder8percentannually,andtheshareofthepopulationlivingbelowthenationalpovertylinedeclinedfrom45.8to38.2percent(WorldBank2020c).Despitethisstrongeconomicperformance,grossdomesticproduct(GDP)percapita,whichstoodat$745in2016(WorldBank2020a)zremainedbelowtheaverageforSub-SaharanAfrica,makingRwandaoneoftheworld'spoorestcountries,withsignificantinfrastructuregaps.Expandingthepowersectorandimprovingitsperformance,inparticular,wereseenas''criticalforsustainingeconomicgrowthandtransformingRwanda'seconomyasittransitionsfromsubsistenceagriculturetomoreenergy-intensiveindustrialandserviceactivities'7(WorldBank2017).AseriesofpowersectorreformscarriedoutbytheGovernmentofRwanda(GoR)from2013onwardgreatlyincreasedtheefficiencyofthesector,whichsawincreasedprivateinvestment.Forexample,thelatestroundofreformsimplementedaspartoftheSecondEconomicDevelopmentandPovertyReductionStrategy(EDPRS-II)beginningin2014separatedelectricityandwaterutilities.Forenergy,itestablishedtheRwandaEnergyGroup(REG)withtwosubsidiaries-theEnergyUtilityCorporation1.imited(EUC1.)andtheEnergyDevelopmentCorporation1.imited(EDC1.)-toenablebettergovernance,allowforclearfinancialaccountabilitybetweenrevenue-generatingservicefunctionsandnon-revenue-generatinginfrastructuredevelopment,andstreamlineoperationsintheenergysector(WorldBank2017).EUC1.wasdesignedtofocusonimprovingelectricityservicesinalreadyelectrifiedareas,whileEDC1.focusedonexpandingelectricityaccesstonewareas(REG2022).Further,theGoRtookstepstoensurethatREGanditsaffiliateswouldconductfinancialreportinginlinewithInternationalFinancialReportingStandardstoenhancefinancialtransparencyandREGzsabilitytoattractprivateandcommercialfinance,bothasanofftakerofprivatelyfinancedindependentpowerproducersandasaborrowerfromcommercialbanks(WorldBank2017).Thesuccessoftheseeffortswasevidentinincreasedgenerationcapacity,whichmorethandoubledbetween2010and2017.Thiswasfinancedtoagreatextentbytheprivatesector,near-universalelectrificationofthecountry'shospitalandhealthcenters,andafivefoldincreaseinRwandans"electricityaccess,whichincreasedfrom6percentin2008tonearly30percentin2016(WorldBank2017).Yetzthehighcostofelectricityservicesremainedasignificantconstraint.TheGoR,sdecisiontoprioritizetheexpansionofdomesticelectricitygeneration(overcheaperelectricityimportsfromnearbycountriessuchasEthiopia,Kenya