生成式人工智能如何改变商业和社会-奥纬咨询（英）.docx

ExecutiveSummaryWillgenerativeartificialintelligenceusherinagoldenageofproductivityordestroymillionsoflivelihoodsacrosstheglobaleconomy?Willitsetpeopleontonewpathsofpersonalfulfillmentorleadthemintocul-de-sacsoflonelinessandisolation?Willitlifthumanitytonewheightsorsowtheseedsofourcollectivedestruction?Dependingonwhomyouask,theanswertoallthosequestionsisyes.Inthe14monthssincethelaunchofChatGPT,ithasn'tbecomeclearexactlyhowgenerativeAIwilltransformtheworld,onlythatitwillwithbothpositiveandnegativeeffectsonindividuals,families,socioeconomicgroups,businesses,industries,andsocietiesasitrevolutionizesworkplacesandreorderspersonallives.Manybreakthroughtechnologiescomewithpitfalls.Fireallowedhumanstogatheratnightbutalsobumedvillages.Theautomobilerevolutionizedmobilitybutbroughttrafficfatalities.Theinternetconnectedpeopleinstantlybutgavenewtoolstocriminals.AkeydifferencebetweengenerativeAlandearlierinnovationsisthatitsverycreatorsarewarningofthepotentialdownsides.ThedualstrandsofpromiseandperilarewoventhroughoutAIcompaniesthemselves;looknofurtherthanthebattleforcontrolofOpenAIforanexampleofthedeepambivalencethatgenerativeAIisproducing.Butthereisopportunityintheambiguity.ThestartinggunofthegenerativeAIracewasfiredalongtimeago,butChatGPTbroughtarushofnewcompaniesandcountriesintotherace.Businessandgovernmentleaderswilldecidehowmuchofthedevelopmentwillbeopen-sourcedandtransparentversusclosed-sourcedandproprietary.Regulatorswilldecidethepaceandbreadthoftheaction.Consumersandworkerswillbecentralinthetechnology'sadoptionandwillhelpdete11ninehowquicklythebenefitsarecaptured.Withthatinmind,theOliverWymanForumsetouttothoroughlyexaminetheattitudes,perceptions,andmisperceptionssurroundinggenerativeAI.InJuneandNovember,wesurveyedmorethan25,000peopleacrosstheUnitedStates,theUnitedKingdom,Canada,Mexico,Brazil,France,Italy,Germany,Spain,China(HongKong),India,Indonesia,Singapore,theUnitedArabEmirates,andAustralia.Thefindingshighlighttheconfusionmanypeoplefeel.While96%ofemployeessaidtheybelieveAIcanhelpthemintheircurrentjob,60%areafraiditwilleventuallyautomatethemoutofwork.Some55%ofemployeesusegenerativeAIatleastonceaweekatwork,but61%ofusersdonotfinditverytrustworthy.Ofthose61%,40%wouldneverthelessuseittohelpthemmakebigfinancialdecisions,and30%wouldsharemorepersonaldataforabetterexperience.Amidthecacophonyofopinionsandpredictions,thereisagrowingconsensusaroundtheworldthatgenerativeAsinfluenceonboththeworkplaceandtheconsumereconomywillbemassive.ThenewAI-conomyWeestimatethatgenerativeAlcouldaddupto$20trilliontoglobalGDPby2030andsave300billionworkhoursayear.Thepossibilitiesareextraordinary.Fully96%oftheworkerswesun,eyedsaidtheybelievegenerativeAIcanhelpthemintheirjobs.ButasgenerativeAIreshapestheworkplace,itcouldplacenewstressesonorganizationalstructures.Inall,thebroadcategoryofAIcoulddisplace85millionjobsgloballyby2025,accordingtoanestimatebytheWorldEconomicForum.One-thirdofallentry-levelrolescouldbeautomated;atthesametime,junioremployeesarmedwithgenerativeAImaypotentiallyreplacetheirfirst-linemanagers,leavingavacuuminthemiddleofthejobpyramid.Asaresult,manyworkersaregrowingmoreanxiousbytheday.Automationisnolongeranarrativeofblue-collarworkersversusrobots.Threeinfivewhite-collarworkersnowfeartheirroleswillbecomeredundantorautomatedasgenerativeAsabilitiesincreasinglyimpactknowledgejobs.1.efttofester,thisanxiousnesscouldsapmorale:AccordingtotheAmericanPsychologicalAssociation,employeesintheUnitedStateswhoareconcernedaboutAIare68%morelikelytofeeltenseorstressedoutduringtheworkdaythanthosewhoaren'tworried,andaremorethantwiceaslikelytobelievetheydon,tmattertotheirworkcommunity.Suchfeelings,inturn,couldleadtodecreasingengagementandproductivity,andhigherturnover.ToreapthebenefitsgenerativeAlcanbring,companiesshouldembraceapeople-firstapproach,investinginworkersasmuchas,ifnotmorethan,thetechnology.Employeeswillneedtrainingandsupporttocreatesensibleandintuitiveprocessesalongsidethistechnology.Afterall,theyarethesameoneswhowillusetheinterfaces,updatethesystems,andmanagetheoutputs.Businessleadersneedtobringthemalongbylisteningandaddressingtheirconcerns,andup/reskillingtheiremployeesalongtheway.RadicalchangeforconsumersThegenerativeAIpicturebecomesabitclearerwhenweexamineitsimpactonconsumersanditswidespreadinfluenceacrossvariousindustries.Healthcareappearstobeespeciallyripefordisruption.Weestimatethatby2030,generativeAIcouldsavedoctorsthreehoursaday,whichwouldallowthemtoserveanadditional500millionpatientsgloballyperyear(assumingtheproductivitygainsgotoservingmorepatients).1.ikewise,weestimatethatupto4(X)millionpatientswillreceivementalhealthsupportasaresultofgenerativeAItherapyservices,democratizingaccessandsparkingglobalinterest.ConsumersareespeciallyeagertoexperiencetherapyforthefirsttimewithgenerativeAl:ofthe77%ofrespondentswhohaveneverdonetherapywithahuman,nearlyoneinthreereporttheywouldtrygenerativeAItherapyinthefuture.GenerativeAIisalsoemergingasasourceoftrustedadvice.NearlyhalfofconsumerssaidtheywouldplacetheirfaithinAIforbiglifedecisionssuchasbuyingahome.Some36%saidtheypreferAIoverhumansforfinancialadvice,demonstratingthebreadthofservicegenerativeAIcanproduce,evenwhensolvingfortraditionallyhumanneeds.Consumersare23%morelikelytoreportthattheyengagewithgenerativeAIfinancialadviserswiththeaimoffindingconnectionthantheyarewhentheyengagewithhumanones;theyarealsonearlyfourtimesaslikelytobelookingforasenseofpurposeintheirpersonalfinanceswhenengagingwithAIadvisersthanwhentheyengagewiththeirhumancounterparts.Educationisanotherarealikelytobeaffected.Ofthe260millionschl-agedchildrenworldwidewhodonotattendschool,weestimatethatupto100millioncouldgainaccesstoeducationthroughgenerativeAIby2030duetogenerativeAspowertoprovideuniversalaccesstoindividualizedtutoring.AppslikeHelloHistory,forexample,allowstudentstoengageinphilosophicaldebateswithAristotleorlearnabouttheintricaciesofevolutionarybiologyfromCharlesDarwin.GenerativeAIonedaycouldevenchangethewaypeopleformrelationships,forbetterorworse.Some14%ofconsumerssaidtheypreferinteractingwithAIbecausetheybelievegenerativeAIcanbemoreemotionallyintelligentthanhumans.AppslikeReplikaareredefiningcompanionship,allowinguserstocraftvirtualfriendswhoarealwaystheretolisten.OneinfiveconsumerssaidtheywouldgoonavirtualdatewithanAIpersona.AndalmostoneinthreeconsumerssaidtheywouldpurchaseanAi-poweredpetcollarthattranslatesanimalsoundsintolanguage,potentiallystrengtheningthebondevenfurtherbetweenpelsandtheirowners.RiskversusrewardisthewrongdiscussionGenerativeAIpresentsincreasinglycomplexrisksfororganizationstomanage.Manyarealreadywell-understood:thepotentialforhallucination,thevagariesofblack-boxlogicsystems,opportunitiesforcyberattacks,databreaches,improperlytrainedmodels,outputcontrol,copyrightconcerns,andonandon.Othershaven,tbeenimaginedyet;justashumansaredevelopinggenerativeAIsystems,sotoowillthesystemschangehumans,withpotentiallyunforeseenramifications.Companiesandsocietiesmustsetasidethequestionofriskorrewardandacceptafutureofriskandrewardbuiltonadynamicmodeloftest,measure,andlearn.Theattitudesandbeliefsbeingformednowamongemployersandemployees,consumersandgovernmentswillfeedbackintothemodelsandhelpshapethisfuture.Inthepagesthatfollow,wedelvedeeplyintothesurveydata,pointingoutthesurprisesandparadoxesamongtheresponses,andofferourbestviewofwheregenerativeAIisheadedandhowitwillaffectbusinesses,employees,andconsumersaroundtheworld.TableofContentsExecutiveSummary2ExploringtheDualitiesofGenerativeAI8Reward/Risk9GenerativeAIischangingeverything,everywhere,allatonce9HowGenerativeAIIsChangingtheNatureofWork15PotentiaIZPitfalls18Thepotential:Agoldenageofproductivity18GenerativeAsswiftmarchacrosstheglobalworkforce18Massadoptionmassproductivity26Sohowdowedrivemoreefficientadoption?29Catalyst/Collapse32Reitnagininganewjobpyramid32Thegreatreskillinganemployerandemployeechallenge38Preparingtodayfortheworkforceoftomorrow41MetamorPhOSiS/Meltdown42Chartingahumaneworkforcejourney42Employeroptimismisloud,employeeconcernislouder43FivekeyprinciplestoleadingwithheartthroughthegenerativeAItransformation49ExploringTomorrow'sGenerativeAI-PoweredConsumerUniverse52TheemergingAl-powereduniverse53Keytakeawaysforbusinessleaders55ExcitemenvExistentialism56TheearlydaysofagenerativeAI-poweredfuture56GenerativeAIasthegreatequalizer58Necessity,themotherofinvention60ElevateZErode62IllustratinggenerativeAswide-rangingcapabilitiesacrossindustries62Retail:GenerativeAIasadviceanddecisionsupport64Media:GenerativeAIascontentcreationandcustomization65Healthcare:GenerativeAIasadviceanddecisionsupportandinformationgatheringandsynthesis66Education:GenerativeAIas(personalized)informationgatheringandsynthesis68Adaptation/Obsolescence70ExploringAs“human”essence71ConsumersareheadoverheelsforgenerativeAI71CanAIteachUStobemorehuman?72TheEvolvingRisks81SpeedZSafety84WhatweknowaboutAIrisk84ImpactsandregulatorychallengesofgenerativeAI86ExploringthebroaderimplicationsofgenerativeAIrisks88Riskmitigations90Unknownrisks,beyondgenerativeAI9396MethodologyIntroductionRISKANDREWARD/ExploringthedualitiesofgenerativeAlRewardXS!HRevolution,notevolutionInbiology,thepunctuatedequilibriummodelpositsthatevolutionoccursinsuddenburstsofexplosiveprogressinbetweenlongperiodsoflittletonochange.Thereisaparallelintechnology,whereincrementalprogressisoccasionallyinterruptedbyaninnovationsomassivelydisruptivethatittransformssociety.Generativeartificialintelligence(AI)isonesuchadvancement,reshapingbothindustriesandlives.Thequestionishow.GenerativeAIischangingeverything,everywhere,allatonceArtificialintelligencehasexistedfordecades,butitspopularitysoaredwiththelaunchofChatGPTinlate2022.Ilquicklybeganreshapingindustries,poweringdailytasks,andenhancingproductsthatdefinemodemliving.WhatseemslikemagicareactuallydeeplearningalgorithmsthatenablegenerativeAItocontinuouslyself-oplimizewithouthumaninten,ention.Forinstance,DeepMincTsprotein-foldingAIsurprisedexpertsbyteachingitselfphysicsandchemistryprinciples,allowingittomakeproteinstructurepredictionsmuchbetterthanhumanexpertscould.Asthesenetworksadvance,theonlyquestionswillbehowfar,andhowfast,generativeAIcanexpanditsdominion.GenerativeIsuppliestoolsandplatformsforinnovationtoflourishGenerativeAldefiesone-size-fits-allinterpretationswithitssheerbreadthofapplications,fromhealthcareandfinancetoeducationandart.Intransportation,therecouldonedaybeagenerativeAl-poweredurbanspherethatdynamicallyadjustssignalsandroutes,improvingsafetyandeliminatingtrafficjams.Ineducation,generativeAIcoulddemocratizelearningwithlessonsindividualizedtoastudent'suniquestyle,needs,andaspirations.OursurveyrespondentsareeagertoseeAl-acceleratedhealthcareadvancementsaswell,perhapsenvisioningafutureinwhichpersonalizeddiagnosesandtreatmentsareprovidedWillgenerativeAlbeaforcefor:GOODBADEVERYTHINGINBETWEEN$20trillion50%13%bstinglobaleconomyby2030,equivalentto20%oftheglobalGDPtodayofAlexpertsthinkthereisahighchance'humanswillgoextinctduetoAlofpeoplesurveyedexpressinterestindevelopingaromanticbondwithgenerativeAl300billion40%28%workhourssavedgloballyeachyear,equivalenttoanaverageofroughlytwohoursperpersonweeklyofrespondentsbelievegenerativeAlwillworseninequalitiesofpeoplesurveyedbelievegenerativeAlcancapturethedepthofhumanemotion500million84%56%additionalpatientstreatedbydoctorsduetotimesavingsfrommaturestategenerativeAlby2030ofemployeesreportexposingtheircompany'sproprietarydatainthepastthreemonthsofrespondentscouldn'ttellAl-generatedfakeimagesfromreal*>10%chance(nsidered"high"becauseitpertainstoexistentialrisks,whichhavepotentiallycatastrophicconsequences)Source:OliverWymanForum,AlImpacts2022ExpertSurveyonProgressinAlwithnearperfectprecision.Itisalreadybeingusedacrossprofessionsthatoncereliedonlyonpeopleratherthanmachines.Writers,influencers,andartistsnowcantapgenerativeAItohelpcrafttheirwork.Butitalsohasresultedinplagiarism,errors,andjobloss.Here,thedualityofgenerativeAIisinfulleffect:ThetechnologypromisestoeliminatemillionsofhoursofmundaneandrepetitivetasksWheredowegofromhere?GenerativeAsarrivalpresentshumankindwithincredibleopportunities(andalsoquestionsthatfrequentlyleadtosomeanswersandmorequestions).Inthechaptersthatfollow,weexploregenerativeAstransformativeimpactontheworkforceandconsumerspheres,thepotentialopportunities,andhiddenrisks.butalsothreatenstoeliminatetheveryauthorswhobenefitfromitsproductivity.PeopleholdhighhopesforAspotentialtoexpeditehumanadvancementacrossindustries%respondentswhothinkAlwillhelpimprovethefollowinginthenext30yearsQuestion:"WhichofthefollowingareasdoyouthinkAlwillhelpimprovemostinthenext30years?"Source:OliverWymanForumGenerativeAlSurvey,October-November2023,16untries,N=16,033TTRealorAl?Mostcan,ttellWeaskedrespondentswhethertheythinkthefollowingimagesarephotographsofreal-lifeObjectsZsceneriesorcreatedbygenerativeAlScififactFactGenerativeAIcanmakeyoumoneyovernight56%,69%,74%.JWWSource:OliverWymanForumGenerativeAlSurvey,October-November2023,16ntries,N=16,033Sci-Fiorfact:Whatisandisn,tgenerativeAl?GenerativeAICBiisaveyourlifeSource:OliverWymanForumanalysisWheredoesgenerativeAIthinkitstacksuprelativetootherinnovativetechnologies?Thetechnologyisnothingifnotbold.Werecentlyaskedthebest-knownapplication,ChatGPT,toevaluategenerativeAspositionrelativetothemostinfluentialtechnologiesinhistory.ItrankeditselfNo.25,betweenrailroadsand5G.Timewilltellifthisisbravadoormodesty.EquallyinterestingishowChatGPTpositionedotherinventions,declaringe-commercesupremeoverairconditioningandcloudcomputingabovetheairplane.Rankingeachofthesetechnologicalmarvelsisatrickquestionaseachhasleftanundeniablemarkontheworld.Nonetheless,it,sanintriguingexercise:Aretheserankingsareflectionofthepast,apredictionofthefuture,oramirrorofgenerativeAsownaspirations?Prompt:Considerthetop50mostinfluentialtechnologiesinhumanhistorybasedonfactorsincludingbutnotlimitedtotheinnovativecontribution,economicimpact,andsocialandculturalimpactithashad/willcontinuetohaveonhumanity.Assigneachtechnologyascorefrom1-100,where1isnegligibleimpactand100isthemostinfluentialofallhistory.Note:Impactonhumanityscore0-100Source：ChatGPT4.0AIcangiveusourwildestdreamsandworstnightmares.Whatapivotalpointforhumanitytodecidewhattodowiththisandhowtotreateachother.Biotechnologist,US(Man,age58)HowgenerativeAIischangingthenatureofworkGenerativeAIwilllikelytransformworkplacesacrosstheglobaleconomy.Itiselicitingarangeofreactions-fromoptimismaboutunparalleledproductivitygainsandexpandedcreativitytofearsaboutjoblossandpeople,ssenseofpurpose.Acrossindustries,generativeAIalreadyisaugmentinghumancapabilities.1.egalfirmsuseittosynthesizecaselaw;marketersleverageitfortargetedcampaigns;scientistsharnessittoacceleratediscoveries.However,massadoptionofgenerativeAIdoesnotau