争创中国2023：中国对能源安全的追求推动风能和太阳能的发展（英）.docx

ARacetotheTopCHINAGlobal三rABOUTG1.OBA1.ENERGYMONITORGlobalEnergyMonitorisanonprofitresearchorganizationdevelopinginformationonenergyprojectsworldwide.ThroughitsGIObaISOIarPoWerTraCkerandGlobalWindPoWerTraCkerprojects,GlobalEnergyMonitorprovidesannualupdatesondpowerfacilities.GlobalEnergyMonitordataisusedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),theOECDEnvironmentDirectorate,UNEnvironmentProgramme,U.S.TreasuryDepartment,andtheWorldBank.Formoreinformation,visitwww.globalenergymonitor.Qrg.AUTHORSDorothyMeiisaprojectmanageratGlobalEnergyMonitor.MartinWeilisaresearcheratGlobalEnergyMonitor.ShradheyPrasadistheprojectmanagerfortheGlobalWindPowerTracker.KasandraOzMaliaistheprojectmanagerfortheGlobalSolarPowerTracker.IngridBehrsinisthedirectoroftheRenewables&OtherPowerprogramatGlobalEnergyMonitor.AboutthecoverThecoverphotoshowsaphotovoltaicplantandawindturbineinDongtaipondlocatedinYanchengzJiangsuProvince,China.ImagefromiStockwithcredittoshenjungong.EditingandproductionEditingcontributionsprovidedbyTedNace,XingZhang,1.auriMyllyvirtazFloraChampenois,DavidHoffman,andCarolinaChau.CopyeditsbyAmandaDeBord.MapsandfiguresdevelopedbyShradheyPrasadandKasandraOzMalia.DesignandpagelayoutsbyDavidVanNess.copyrightholders.Copyright©June2023byGlobalEnergyMonitor.FURTHERRESOURCESForadditionaldataonproposedandexistingsolarprojects,seeSUmmaryDataoftheGlobalSolarPowerTracker.ForlinkstoreportsbasedontheGlobalSolarPowerTrackerdata,seeRePOrtS&Briefings.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGlobalSolarPowerTracker,seeDOWnIoadData.Foradditionaldataonproposedandexistingwindprojects,seeSUmmaryDataoftheGlobalWindPowerTracker.ForlinkstoreportsbasedontheGlobalWindPowerTrackerdata,seeRCPortS&Briefings.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGlobalWindPowerTracker,seeDOWnlOadData.Supplementaryinformationonthemethodologyusedincalculationsforthisreportcanbefoundonourmethodologywikipage.ACKNOW1.EDGEMENTSThisreportwasmadepossiblewithsupportfromtheQuadratureClimateFoundation.MEDIACONTACTDorothyMeiProjectManager,GlobalEnergyMonitor+1dorothy.mciglobalcncrgymonitor.orgPermissionszcopyrightThispublicationmaybereproducedinwholeorinpartandinanyformforeducationalornonprofitpurposeswithoutspecialpermissionfromthecopyrightholders,providedthatacknowledgementofthesourceismade.NouseofthispublicationmaybemadeforresaleorothercommercialpurposewithoutthewrittenpermissionoftheARacetotheTop:ChinaCHINA'SQUESTFORENERGYSECURITYDRIVESWINDANDSO1.ARDEVE1.OPMENTDorothyMeizMartinWeil,ShradheyPrasad,KasandraO,MaliazandIngridBehrsinSUMMARYWithitsfocusonrenewableenergydevelopmentoverthepast15years,Chinahasbecometheglobalrenewableenergyleader,hostingnearlyhalfoftheworld'stotaloperatingWindandSolarcapacity.Thisambitiouspushhasbeengeographicallywidespread:everyprovinceandmostcountiesaredevelopinglargeutility-scale1solarandwindpower.Megawindandsolarbases,primarilysituatedinChina'snorthernandnorthwestdeserts,anchorChina'srenewableenergyambitionsandboastaprospectivecapacitygreaterthanthe2022totaloperatingwindandsolarCaPaCityoftheUnitedStates.ThesebaseswillserveasthecenterpieceofChina'srenewableenergyexpansionandacornerstoneofthecountry'soverallenergysecuritystrategy.Chinahasskyrocketedtothetopoftheglobalwindandsolarleaderboardthroughacombinationofincentivesandregulatorymeasures.Asitlookstothefuture,thecountryispoisedtomaintainitsleadershippositionbyimplementingambitiousinitiativesthatembraceinnovativeapproachestoaddresstheintermittentandvolatilenatureofwindandsolarpower,thusensuringamoresecureenergyfuture.KeyTakeaways: Chinazsoperatinglargeutility-scalesolarcapacityhasreached228GWmorethantherestoftheworldcombined.ThemajorityoftheseinstallationsareconcentratedinthenorthernandnorthwestprovincesofChina,withShanxi,Xinjiang,andHebeirankingasthetopthreeprovincesintermsoflargeutility-scalesolarcapacity. China/scombinedonshoreandoffshorewindcapacityhasdoubledfromwhatitwasin2017andnowsurpasses310GW.ThehighestconcentrationofoperatingwindcapacityinChinaisinthenorthernandnorthwesternregions.InnerMongolia,HebeizandXinjiangarethetopthreeprovincesintermsofoperatingwindcapacity.1.GEMcatalogsallsolarinstallationsgreaterthan20MWandallwindinstallationsgreaterthan10MW.- Operatingoffshorewindcapacityhasreached31.4GWzandaccountsforapproximately10%ofChina,stotalwindcapacityandexceedstheoperatingoffshorecapacityofallofEurope.- Approximately379GWofprospectivelargeutility-scalesolarcapacityandthebulkofthe371GWofprospectivewindcapacityidentifiedarescheduledforinstallationbytheendof2025.Itisthereforehighlylikelythattheprovincialtargets(approximately1,371GWforwindandsolar)willbeachieved,surpassingthecentralgovernment'stargetoflz200GWwellaheadof2030.Thisprospectivecapacityisenoughtoincreasetheglobalwindfleetbynearly50%andgrowgloballargeutility-scalesolarinstallationsby85%overcurrentlevels.Chinaisnowactivelypromotingpowerstorageinconjunctionwithnewwindandsolarfarms,exploringintegratedgeneration,storage,andloadmanagementsystems,andbuildingdozensofgreenhydrogenplantsusingrenewableenergyasthepowersource.- Whileallthesetechnologieshavethepotentialtomitigatetheintermittencyofwindandsolarpowergeneration,thecurrentpaceandscalearenotyetsufficienttoensurethatcoalbecomesatruly“supporting“powersource.Ascurrentlyconceived,thenewrenewablesmega-basesinthenorthwestarelikelytobundlewindandsolargenerationwithclosetoequalamountsofelectricityfromnewlybuiltcoal-firedstations.1. REGIONA1.BACKGROUNDDespitebeingtheworld'sIargeStenergyconsumerandgreenhousegasproducer,Chinahasemergedasagloballeaderinrenewableenergyinrecentyears.ChinanowholdsthetoppositionforbothwindandSOlarenergy,witheachaccountingformorethanone-thirdoftheworld'stotalcumulativeinstalledcapacity.Sincetheearly2000sztheChinesegovernmenthasheavilyinvestedinrenewableenergyasawaytoaddressthecountryzsgrowingenergydemandsandpollutionissues.AsreportedbyB100mbergNEF,globalinvestmentinrenewableenergyin2022approachednearlyhalfatrillionUSdollarsforthefirsttime,withChinaaccountingfor55%oftheworld'stotal.Specifically,Chinahasinvested$164bi11ioninnewsolarinstallationsand$109billioninnewwindinstallations,surpassingthecombinedinvestmentfigurefromboththeUSandEurope.Toachieveitsstatedgoalofpeakingcarbonemissionsbefore2030andachievingcarbonneutralitybefore2060,Chinaisacceleratingitspushtowardsrenewableenergy.GlobalEnergyMonitor'sGlObaISolarPQwCrTraCkCrandGlobalVVindPcwcrTrackcrhaveidentifiedapproximately379GWofprospectiveProspectiveprojectsareanyprojectsthatareeitherannounced,inpre-construction,orunderconstruction.The14thFive-YearPlanreferstothefive-yeareconomicandsocialdevelopmentplanofChinacoveringtheperiodfrom2021to2025.largeutility-scalesolarpowercapacityand371GWofprospectivewindpowercapacity,whichisroughlyequaltoChina'scurrentinstalledoperatingcapacity.Themajorityoftheseprojectsareexpectedtobecompletedwithinthe14thFivC-YCarPlan(2021-2025)/withsomeadditionallarge-scaleinitiativesanticipatedtobefinalizedbefore2030.Withsuchasubstantialpipelineofprojectsunderway,China,sworld-leadingrenewableenergydriveissettonotonlycontinue,butlikelyeventoaccelerate.2. OPERATING1.ARGEUTI1.ITY-SCA1.ESO1.ARANDWINDCAPACITYINCHINANationaloperatingcapacityoverviewAsofthefirstquarterof2023,GEM,sGlobalSolarPowerTrackercatalogsnearly228GVV4ofoperatingworldwide.Thisfigurerepresentsapproximately75%ofthecombinedlargeutility-scalesolarcapacityoftheentireAsianregionand52%ofthegloballargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.China'scombinedonshoreandoffshorewindcapacityhaveexceeded310GW/whichisroughlyequaltothewindcapacityoftheothertopSeVenCOUntrieSglobally,combined.Notably,operatingoffshorewindcapacityhasreached31.4GW,representingapproximately10%ofChina'stotalwindcapacity,andnearlyequivalenttotheUnitedStates,prospectiveoffshorewindcapacity(36GW).Althoughbothsolarandwindcapacitiesareincreasingannually,therateOfgrowthforlargeutility-scalesolarismorethantwicethatofwind.In2022,thegrowthofcommissionedlargeUtility-SCalesolarwasroughly22%,whilewindexperiencedagrowthof9%(Figures1and2).Figure 1: Totaloperatinglargeutility*scalesolarcapacitybyyear250Figure 2: Totaloperatingonshoreandoffshorewindcapacitybyyearso*I<?I3E三-Oooo0505211(Mg1.SP=SSUI>WnUc4. Chinareportedatotalof392GWofcumulativeoperatingsolarinstalledattheendof2022.Thisfigureisforallsizesofsolarinstallations,includingrooftop,CommerCiaI/industrial,andSmalIer-SCaIeUtiIityaswellaslargeutility-scale.GEM,ssolartrackeronlyincludeslargeutility-scalesolarfarmPhaSeSwithacapacityof20MWorgreater.5. Chinareportedatotalof365GWofcumulativeoperatingwindinstalledattheendof2022.Thisfigureisforallprojectsregardlessofsize.GEM,swindtrackerisspecificallyfocusedonwindprojectswithacapacitythresholdof10MWorgreater.Provincialdistributionoflargeutility-scalesolarandwindcapacityMostoperatinglargeutility-scalesolarinstallationsareconcentratedinChina'snorthandnorthwestprovinces(Map1.onthenextpage).Shanxi,Xinjiang,andHebeioccupythetopthreepositions.Shanxiprovince,formerlyknownasChina,sCoalcapital,nowleadsthecountryintermsofoperatinglargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.Remarkably,ithostsnearly19GWofcommissionedlargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.XinjiangandHebeiprovinces,bothabundantinrenewableenergyresources,areclosebehind,contributingapproximately17GWand16GWofoperatingcapacity,respectively.Thecombinedcapacityofthesetopthreeprovincesamountsto52GW,surpassingthetotaloperatinglargeutility-scalesolarcapacityoftheUnitedStatesin2022.China,snorthernandnorthwesternregionsfeaturethemostoperatingwindcapacity(Map2,onthenextpage).Asofthefirstquarterof2023zInnerMongolialeadsChinazsprovinceswithapproximately41GWofoperatingonshorewindcapacity.HebeiandXinjiangsecurethenexttwopositionszeachproviding22.9GWofoperatingwindcapacity.Thecombinedcapacityofthetopthreeprovincesalone(approximately87GW)exceedsthecombinedCaPaCity(62GW)ofoperatingwindinstallationsinBrazil,Spain,andCanada.Intermsofoffshorewind,themajorityofthecapacity(75%)islocatedintheprovincesofJiangsu,Guangdong,andFujian.Amongtheseprovinces,JiangsuzwhichisalsohometothelargestoffshorewindfarminChina(JiangSUQieiOngOffShOreWindfaen),standsoutasthelargestcontributor,accountingforabout12GWzor37%ofthetotal.GuangdongandFujiancomeinsecondandthird,withtheseprovincescontributing8.5GWand3.5GW,respectively,toChina'stotaloffshorewindcapacity.Figure 3: Operatinglargeutility-scalesolarandwindcapacitybyprovinceCapacity(GW)O5101520ShanxiXinjiangHebeiQinghaiNingxiaInnerMongoliaShaanxiGuangdongGuizhouGansuHubeiAnhuiShandongGuangxiJiangXiZhejiangJiangsuHenanYunnanHeilongjiangJilinHunanSichuan1.iaoning-IMiTibetTianjinHainanFujian-Chongqing/ShanghaiHBeijingTOperating1.argeUtility-scaleSolarCapacity(GW)Q-2?3?”InnerMongoliaHebeiXinjiangShandongJiangsuShanxiGansuGuangdongHenanNingxlaYunnanUaoningJilinHeilongjiangHunanShaanxiGuangxidMMQinghaiFujianHubeiSichuanGuizhou-iHJiangxiAnhuiZhejiang-Tianjin-Chongqing-flShanghai4OperatingOnshoreWind吧?OperatingOffshoreWindIInPrTD3. PROSPECTIVE1.ARGEUTI1.ITY-SCA1.ESO1.ARANDWINDCAPACITYINCHINAaaaaaaOoooo108642(Mo)3PedS1400-1200-NationalprospectivecapacityoverviewInDecember2020,PresidentXiJinpingintroducedacommitmenttobuildover1,200GWofsolarandwindpowerby2030andtoachieve25%non-fossilfuelusageinitsprimaryenergyby2030.Inpractice,meetingthe25%targetrequiresmuchmorethanlz200GWofwindandsolar.Nonetheless,thiswasacrucialmovetowardachievingChina's"dualCarbOrrcommitment,whichaimstopeakcarbondioxideemissionsbefore2030andachievecarbonneutralitybefore2060.Toachievethesegoals,boththecentralgovernmentandprovincialgovernmentshavemappedoutambitioussolarandwindtargetsforthe14thFive-YearPlan.Thenational14thFive-YearPlanhasreassertedChina'sdedicationtoachievingitsrenewableenergytargetsbyrampingupthedeploymentofsolarandwindprojects,whileprovincialgovernmentsthroughoutthecountryhaveestablishedmorespecificandambitioustargetsforwindandsolarTheprovincialtargetsforsolarenergyencompasscumulativecapacityacrossallsizesandscales,fromlarge-scaledowntorftopinstallations.energy,aimingtoachievethemby2025.CombiningtheactualtargetsreleasedbymostprovinceswithestimatesForfurtherdetailspleaseseeour7tethodologyPage.forprovinceswithvagueorundisclosedtargets,thecumulativeprovincialwindandsolartargets,acrossallthresholds,amounttoapproximatelylz371GWby2025zasshowninTable1(onthenextpage).Asofthefirstquarterof2023,GEMhasidentifiedapproximately371GWofprospectivewindcapacityand379GWofprospectivelargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.Thesefiguresarecontinuouslygrowingasnewprojectsareannouncedandpublicized.ChinahasdemonstratedatrackrecordofsurpassingitsrenewableenergydevelopmentgoalsinthepreviousthreeFive-YearPlans(llthFYPz12thFYPzand13thFYP).Giventhishistoryandthecommitmenttomeetthez,dualcarbonz,targets,theannouncedprojectsarehighlylikelytobesuccessfullyimplemented.Ifallprospectiveprojectsarebuiltandcommissionedasplanned,inadditiontothealreadyoperatingcapacitythatGEMhasidentified(largeutility-scalesolar228GWzwind310GW)Chinawilllikelyachieveandpotentiallysurpassits2030targetof1,200GWofcumulativewindandsolarcapacityfiveyearsaheadofschedule.BecauseGEMonlytracksprojectsthatmeetacapacitythresholdof20MW,thetotalamountofallscalesofsolarinstalledby2025,shouldalllargeutility-scaleprojectscometofruition,willbesignificantlylargerthanwhathasbeenidentifiedbyGEM.Figure 4: China,soperatingandforecastedsolarandwindcapacityinrelationtoits2030CentralGovernmentTargetForfurtherdetailsonthisfigurepleaseseeourMethOdolCgYFage.1600-CentralGovernment2030TargetGEMProspectiveSolarAdditionalOperatingSolarBGEMOperatingSolarGEMProspectiveWindAdditionalOperatingWindGEMOperatingWindTable1:WindandsolarcapacityinChina:Operatingcapacity,prospectivecapacity,and14thFiveYearPlantargets,listedalphabeticallybyprovince10111ProvinceSolarOperatingCapacity(MW)ForfurtherdetailsandreferencesonthistablepleaseseeourMethOdolOgyPage.Theprovincialtargetsforsolarandwindenergyarefromofficialsourceswhereavailable.Provincialtargetshighlightedinorangecolorwereestimatedwhereofficialprovincialtargetswereunavailableorunspecified.ForfurtherdetailspleaseseeourMelhOdologyPage.GEM,ssolarcapacityvaluesarefromlargeutility-scaleprojectsanddonotincludeanycapacitiesfrominstallationsbelow20MW.Theprovincialtargetsforsolarenergyencompasscumulativecapacityacrossallsizesandscales,fromlarge-scaledowntorooftopinstallations.SolarProspectiveCapacity(MW)12China14thFYPCumulativeSoIarTargetuWindOperatingCapacity(MW)WindProspectiveCapacity(MW)China14thFYPCumulativeWindTarget(MW)China227,761378,622771,551310,274371,075599,080Anhui9,9567,69228,0004,3065,2738000Beijing51202l5102360300Chongqing4254001,8501.0937501850Fujian451455,0007,0856,0689000Gansu11,36420,39341,69018,37720,74638530Guangdong11,677