英文【NREL】储能未来研究—分布式太阳能和储能展望：方法与情景（英）.docx

NRE1.TransformingENERGYAshreetaPrasanna,KevinMcCabe,BenSigrin,andNateBlairDNRE1.TransformingENERGYStorageFuturesStudyDistributedSolarandStorageOutlook:MethodologyandScenariosAshreetaPrasanna,KevinMcCabe,BenSigrin,andNateBlairSuggestedCitation：Prasanna,Ashreeta,KevinMcCabe.BenSlgrin,andNateBlair.StorageFuturesStudy;DistributedSolarandStorageOutlook:MethodologyandScenarios.Golden,CO:NationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory.NRE1.TP-7A40-79790.https:WWW.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79790.pdf.NOTICEThisworkwasauthoredbytheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory,operatedbyAllianceforSustainableEnergy,1.1.C,fortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC36-08G028308.FundingprovidedbyU.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergySolarEnergyTechnologiesOffice,U.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyWindEnergyTechnologiesOffice,U.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyWaterPowerTechnologiesOfficeandU.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyOfficeofStrategicAnalysis.TheviewsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheDOEortheU.S.Government.ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory(NRE1.)atWWW.nrel.gov/Dublications.U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)reportsproducedafter1991andagrowingnumberofpre-1991documentsareavailablefreeviaWWWQST1.gov.Frontandbackcoverphotos:iStock936999506,iStock1178922834,/Stock1202603676,iStock1270012506.NRE1.printsonpaperthatcontainsrecycledcontent.PrefaceThisreportisoneinaseriesoftheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory,sStorageFuturesStudy(SFS)publications.TheSFSisamultiyearresearchprojectthatexplorestheroleandimpactofenergystorageintheevolutionandoperationoftheU.S.powersector.TheSFSisdesignedtoexaminethepotentialimpactofenergystoragetechnologyadvancementonthedeploymentofutility-scalestorageandtheadoptionofdistributedstorage,aswellastheimplicationsforfuturepowersysteminfrastructureinvestmentandoperations.Theresearchfindingsandsupportingdatawillbepublishedasaseriesofreports,witheachreportbeingreleasedonitscompletion.ThefollowingtableliststhespecificresearchtopicsplannedforexaminationundertheSFSandtheassociatedpublicationformats.Thisreport,thefourthintheSFSseries,providesasetofscenariosforcost-effectivenessandcustomeradoptionforarangeofscenariosthatincludefuturetechnologycostsandvaluationofbackuppower.TheSFSseriesprovidesdataandanalysisinsupportoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,sEnergySlOrageGrandChallenge,acomprehensiveprogramtoacceleratethedevelopment,commercialization,andutilizationofnext-generationenergystoragetechnologiesandsustainAmericangloballeadershipinenergystorage.TheEnergyStorageGrandChallengeemploysausecaseframeworktoensurestoragetechnologiescancost-effectivelymeetspecificneeds,andincorporatesabroadrangeoftechnologiesinseveralcategories:electrochemical,electromechanical,thermal,flexiblegeneration,flexiblebuildings,andpowerelectronics.Moreinformation,anysupportingdataassociatedwiththisreport,linkstootherreportsintheseries,andotherinformationaboutthebroaderstudyareavailableathttps:/WWW.nrel.gov/analysis/StOrage-futures.html.TitleDescriptionRelationtoThisReportTheFourPhasesofStorageDeployment:AFrameworkfortheExpandingRoleofStorageintheU.S.PowerSystemExplorestherolesandopportunitiesfornew,cost-competitivestationaryenergystoragewithaconceptualframeworkbasedonfourphasesofcurrentandpotentialfuturestoragedeployment,andpresentsavaluepropositionforenergystoragethatcouldresultincost-effectivedeploymentsreachinghundredsofgigawattsofinstalledcapacity.ProvidesbroadercontextontheimplicationsofthecostandperformancecharacteristicsfortheU.S.gridandprovidesagrid-scalebackdroptothedistributedstorageconclusionsofthisreport.StorageFuturesStudy:StorageTechnologyModelingInputDataReportReviewsthecurrentcharacteristicsofabroadrangeofmechanical,thermal,andelectrochemicalstoragetechnologieswithapplicationtothepowersector.Providescurrentandfutureprojectionsofcost,performancecharacteristics,andlocationalavailabilityofspecificcommercialtechnologiesalreadydeployed,includinglithium-ionbatterysystemsandpumpedstoragehydropower.Providesstoragetechnologycostandperformanceassumptionsthatinformstoragedeploymentandgridevolutionscenariospresentedinthisreport.StorageFuturesStudy:EconomicPotentialofDiurnalStorageintheU.S.PowerSectorAssessestheeconomicpotentialforutilityscalediurnalstorageandtheeffectsthatstoragecapacityadditionscouldhaveonpowersystemevolutionandoperations.Analyzesutility-scalestoragedeploymentandgridevolutionscenariosasacomplementtothisreport.StorageFuturesStudy:DistributedSolarandStorageOutlook:MethodologyandScenariosAssessesthecustomeradoptionofdistributeddiurnalstorageforseveralfuturescenariosandtheimplicationsforthedeploymentofdistributedgenerationandpowersystemevolution.Thisreport.GridOperationalImplicationsofWidespreadStorageDeployment(forthcoming)Assessestheoperationandassociatedvaluestreamsofenergystorageforseveralpowersystemevolutionscenariosandexplorestheimplicationsofseasonalstorageongridoperations.Considerstheoperationalimplicationsofstoragedeploymentandgridevolutionscenariostotestthefour-phaseframeworkandReEDSresults.StorageFuturesStudy:ExecutiveSummaryandSynthesisofFindings(forthcoming)Synthesizesandsummarizesfindingsfromtheentireseriesandrelatedanalysesandreports,andidentifiestopicsforfurtherresearch.Includesadiscussionofallotheraspectsofthestudyandprovidescontextfortheresultsofthisstudy.AcknowledgmentsWewouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionsoftheentireStorageFuturesStudyteam,aswellasourU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyStrategicAnalysisTeamcolleagues,ascorecontributorstothisdocument.ThosecontributorsincludePaulDenholm,WesleyCole,WillFrazier,NateBlair,andChadAugustinefromtheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory(NRE1.)andKaraPodkaminerfromDOE.WewouldliketothankDariceGuittetandBrianMirletzandthebroaderSystemAdvisorModelteamfortheirhelpintegratingPySAMmoduleswithintheNRE1.DistributedGenerationMarketDemand(dGen)model,andspecificallySamKoebrichfortheuseofhiscodetogeneratesomeofthefigures.WewouldalsoliketoacknowledgethefeedbackandcontributionsofotherNRE1.staffandtheTechnicalReviewCommittee,includingDougArent(NRE1.ZChair),PaulAlbertus,InesAzevedo,RyanWiser,SusanBabinec,AaronBloom,ChrisNamovicz,ArvindJaggi,KeithParks,KiranKumaraswamy,GrangerMorgan,CaraMarcy,VincentSprenkle,OliverSchmidt,DavidRosner,JohnGavan,andHowardGruenspechtforprovidingreviewsanddetailedcomments.vi1.istofAcronymsBTMbehind-the-meterDERdistributedenergyresourcedGenDistributedGenerationMarketDemand(dGen)modelEIAU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationkWkilowattkWhkilowatt-hour1.BN1.1.awrenceBerkeleyNational1.aboratoryMWmegawattMWhmegawatt-hourNPVnetpresentvalueNRE1.NationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratoryPVphotovoltaicsReEDSRegionalEnergyDeploymentSystemSAIDIsystemaverageinterruptiondurationindexSAIFIsystemaverageinterruptionfrequencyindexSAMSystemAdvisorModelSFSStorageFuturesStudyUSDU.S.dollarsVllExecutiveSummaryDecliningbatterystoragecostsandthegrowingemphasisonresiliencyandgridserviceshaveledtoheightenedinterestinpairingbatterystoragewithdistributedsolartoprovidevaluetocustomersandthedistributiongrid.Theincreasingdeploymentofdistributedenergyresources(DERs),includingbatterystorage,isanimportantandemergingthemeinmodernpowersystems.DERscancontributetogridOexibility,reducegridpowerlosses,andsupportdemandsidemanagement.Existingbehind-the-meterbatterycapacityisestimatedtobeapproximately0.8GW/1.6GWhintheUnitedStatesatyear-end2020(WoodMackenzieandU.S.EnergyStorageAssociation2020).Themarketforsmall-scalebatterysystemsisexpectedtoincreasedramatically,pushedbyadesireforbackuppowerandthedeploymentofdistributedsolarphotovoltaics(PV).TherecentlyapprovedFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC)Order2222(FERC2020)enablesDERstoparticipateinregionalwholesalecapacity,energy,andancillaryservicemarketsalongsidetraditional(utility-scale)generation.Order2222andnewDERcompensationmechanismsliketheNewYorkStateValueofDistributedEnergyResources(VDER)(NYSERDA2020b)areanticipatedtounlocknewmarketopportunitiesforDERsandthusleadtoadditionaldeploymentofDERcapacity.Duetothenascentmarketstatusfordistributedbatterystoragesystems,therearerelativelyfewpublishedprojectionsofdistributedbatterystoragedeployment.Thisworkaddressesthatgapbycharacterizingthepotentialforbehind-the-meterbatterystorageandidentifyingkeydriversofadoption.ThisreportdescribestheexpandedcapabilitiesoftheDistributedGenerationMarketDemand(dGen)modeltoanalyzetheeconomicsofdistributed(behind-the-meter)PVpairedwithbatterystoragesystemsStand-alonebatterystoragesystemsarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.andpresentsprojectionsofadoptionforthecontiguousUnitedStatesoutto2050underarangeofscenarios.ThesescenariosusetechnologycostandperformanceassumptionsconsistentwiththeNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory's2020StandardScenariospairedwithupdatedbatterycostprojections(AugustineandBlair2021)andexistingpolicies.AdditionalscenariosevaluatesensitivitiestothevalueofbackuppowerandDERcompensationmechanisms,collectivelycharacterizingthefuturepotentialforbehind-the-meterstorageandidentifyingkeydriversofadoption.Broaderpowersectorandeconomywidedecarbonizationtargetsarenotcapturedinthisanalysis,whichwouldlikelyaccelerateandincreasetheadoptionofbothdistributedPVandbatterystoragesystems.VlllInordertocalculatebatterystoragesystemandPVadoption,thedGenmodelfirstdeterminesthetechnical,economic,andmarketpotential: Technicalpotential:ThemaximumamountoftechnicallyfeasiblecapacityofPV-onlyandPV+batterystoragesystems,withPVsystemsizelimitedbycustomer,srooftopareaandenergyconsumption,andbatterycapacitycappedasafractionoftheoptimalPVcapacityataspecificsite. Economicpotential:Asubsetoftechnicalpotential,economicpotentialisestimatedasthetotalcapacitythathasapositivereturnoninvestmentorapositivenetpresentvalue(NPV).Economicpotentialcanalsobeinterpretedasthetotalcapacityofsystemsthatarecost-effectiveinaspecificyear. Marketpotential:Thefractionofeconomicpotentialrepresentingthecustomer'swillingnesstoinvestinatechnologygivenaspecifiedpaybackperiod. Adoption:AdoptedThetermsdeploymentandadoptionareusedinterchangeablyinthisreport.capacityisthecapacityprojectedtobepurchasedbyresidential,commercial,andindustrialbuildingownersandinstalledatthecustomerpremisesinabehind-the-meterconfiguration.AdoptionisbasedonapplyingaBassdiffusionfunctionwheretheupperlimitofadoptionissettothemarketpotential.PotentialKyAMUmPhOm1163AdoptionTechnicalEconomcFoMcyOTipact*tew*s>orwsponsMarti4pnlronFroicMtcm>l09yco«1FkacmgparcxnfsV<A>s*amsFigureES-1.Methodologytodetermineadoption/deploymentofdistributedstoragesystemsandPVandbatterypotential(GW)fortheBaseCasescenarioin2050AdescriptionofeachlevelandthekeyassumptionsandcorrespondingpotentialcapacityfortheBaseCasescenarioin2050isdescribedinFigureES-1.MarkedSystemsacSystempdormanc.COfMirainlsAdaptedfrom1.opezetal.(2012)TableES-IsummarizestheeconomicpotentialalongsidetheprojectedcumulativebatteryandPVcapacitydeployedoradoptedby2050forallscenariosevaluated.ThecumulativePVcapacitypresentedinTableES-IisthesumofPVcapacityfromPV-onlyandPV+batterystoragesystems.ixTableES-1.DistributedPVandBatteryEconomicPotentialandAdoptionforallScenariosThrough2050BatteryPVScenarioNameScenarioDescriptionEconomicPotentialProjectedEconomicProjectedGW/GWhCumulativeAdoptionPotential(GW)CumulativeGW/GWhAdoption(GW)BaseCaseModeratecostprojectionsforbothPVandbatterystoragesystems;allotherinputsaredefaultvalues;thevalueofbackuppowerisconsidered114/2288/161,104152AdvancedCostBatteriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatteriespairedwithmoderatecostprojectionsforPV147/29411/221,114160AdvancedCostPVScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforPVpairedwithmoderatecostprojectionsforbatteries116/23211/221,142223AdvancedCostPV+BatteriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforPVpairedwithadvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatteries147/29416/321,143234NoBackupValueScenarioModeratecostprojectionsforPVandbatteriesandnovalueofbackuppower85/1705/101,100146NoBackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatteriesandnovalueofbackuppower116/2327/141,1101502xBackupValueScenarioModeratecostprojectionsforPVandbatteriesanddoublethevalueofbackuppoweracrossallstatesandsectors138/27611/221,0601392×BackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatteriesanddoublethevalueofbackuppoweracrossallstatesandsectors245/49017/341,085151NetMeteringExtensionsScenarioAllstatesswitchtonetmeteringcompensationfrom2020through2050111/2228/161,080209NationalNetBillingScenarioAllstatesswitchtonetbillingcompensationin2020through2050114/2288/161,105145Forallmodeledscenarios,wefindaneconomicpotentialforbatterystoragecapacityrangingfrom85-245GW/170-490GWhandcumulativeadoptedbatterystoragecapacityin2050rangingfrom5-17GW/10-34GWh.Althoughthereissignificanteconomicpotentialforbehind-the-meterbatterystorage(morethan300timestheexistinginstalledcapacity),onlyasmallfractionofthisisadoptedunderourmodeledscenarios.Selectedinsightsfromouranalysisfollow: ThereissignificanteconomicpotentialfordistributedPV+batterystoragesystemsunderallmodeledscenarios.TheBaseCaseeconomicpotentialfordistributedbatterystoragecoupledwithPVisapproximately114GW/228GWh,whichismorethan90timesthe2020capacity.Inthescenariosinvestigated,theupperboundofeconomicpotentialfordistributedbatterystoragecoupledwithPVis245GW/490GWhunderthe2xBackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenario,andthelowerboundis85GW/170GWhundertheNoBackupValueScenario. Despitethehigheconomicpotential,modestgrowthindistributedPV+batterystorageadoptionisprojectedunderourmodeledscenarios.UndertheBaseCase,theprojecteddeploymentofdistributedbatterystoragecapacityis8GW/16GWh,7%oftheeconomicpotential,witharangeacrossscenariosfrom5-17GW/10-34GWh. Thesubstantialdecreasefromeconomicpotentialtoadoptionreflectsalongpaybackperiod,andconsequentlyalowershareofcustomerswillingtoinvest.TheaveragepaybackperiodsofdistributedPV+batterystoragesystemsarefairlylong:11yearsfortheresidentialsector,12yearsforthecommercialsector,and8yearsfortheindustrialsectorin2030. Atthenationalscale,themostimportantdriversofdistributedco-adoptedbatterystorageareacombinationofadvanced(low)futurebatterycostandahighvalueforbackuppower.Thehighestadoptionestimateforbatterycapacityisunderthe2xBackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenario(+121%comparedtotheBaseCase). CombinedcostreductionsinbothPVandbatterystoragetechnologiesdriveadditionaladoptioncomparedtocostreductionsinbatterytechnologyalone.TheAdvancedCostPV+BatteriesScenario,whichconsidersareductioninfuturecostsforbothPVandbatteries,hashigherbatterydeploymentcomparedtotheBaseCase,increasingby106%. PV+batterysy