捕捉碳、捕捉价值—CCS商业模式综述（英）.docx

Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthor'ssoleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsmembers.Copyright©2024OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies(RegisteredCharity,No.286084)Thispublicationmaybereproducedinpartforeducationalornon-profitpurposeswithoutspecialpermissionfromthecopyrightholder,providedacknowledgementofthesourceismade.NouseofthispublicationmaybemadeforresaleorforanyothercommercialpurposewhatsoeverwithoutpriorpermissioninwritingfromtheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies.ISBN978-1-78467-228-7Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors'soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.ContentsContentsiiFiguresiiTablesiiAcknowledgementiiIntroduction11. KeyrisksinvolvedwithCCS12. FrameworkstosupportinvestmentinCCS42.1 Supportivelegalandregulatoryframework42.2 Mechanismsthatallowstackingofrevenues52.3 Diverseapproaches:Experiencesfromdifferentcountries93. CCSBusinessModels163.1 Overviewofbusinessmodeltheory163.2 CCSbusinessmodels16Conclusions23Appendix:Casestudies24FiguresFigure 1: 1.evelizedcostofCO2avoidedbetweenCCSandunabatedrouteacrosssectors2Figure 2: VaryingDegreeofGovernmentInvolvementinCCS10Figure 3: CCSValueChain,OwnershipandFinancing17Figure 4: FullChainModelConcept18Figure 5: PartialChainModel-SingleHubConcept20Figure 6: PartialChainModel-OffshoreCO2TransportConcept21Figure 7: PartialChainModel-FreeMarket22FigureA1:CRCBusinessModel26TablesTable 1: SummaryofhurdlesintheCCSSupplyChain4Table 2: GovernmentfundingsupportmechanismsforCCS6Table 3: CCSSupportMechanismsinUK12Table 4: FullChainModelProjects18Table 5: ExamplesofPartialChain-FreeMarketprojects22TableA1:DenburyBusinessModel25TableA2:CRCBusinessModel26AcknowledgementTheauthorsacknowledgethereviewandvaluableinputsofToby1.ockwoodattheCleanAirTaskForce(CATF)intothiswork.IntroductionBecauseofthescalewithwhichitcouldbeapplied,carboncapture,andstorage(CCS)isidentifiedasacriticaltechnologytoreduceCO2emissionstoachieveglobalclimategoals,Seeforinstance,Bui,M.,Adjiman.C.,Anthony,E.etal.(26moreauthors)(2018)Carboncaptureandstorage(CCS):Thewayforward.EnergyandEnvironmentalScience,11(5).pp.1062-1176.ISSN1754-5692;IPCC,ClimateChange2014:MitigationofClimateChange.WorkingGroupIIIContributiontotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,CambridgeUniversityPress.Particularly,CCScanreduceemissionsfromexistingassets(suchasgasprocessingplants,powerplants,chemicalplants)decreasingtheriskofstrandedassetsinacarbon-constrainedworld;reduceemissionsfromhard-to-abatesectors(suchascementandsteel)wheredecarbonizationtechnologiesarelimitedandhavenotbeenscaledup;enabletheproductionoflow-carbonhydrogenwhichrepresentsakeypillarofdecarbonization;andenabletheremovalofCO2fromtheatmospherewhichisneededtoreachglobalclimateobjectivesviatechnologiessuchasDirectAirCarbonCaptureandStorage(DACCS)andBioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)IEA(2020),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2020SpecialReportonCarbonCaptureUtilizationandStorage:CCUSincleanenergytransition.ThepotentialofCCSasmitigationtechnologycouldbesubstantial.IntheIEA,sNet-ZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZE)1installedcapacityofcapturedCO2increasesfromthecurrentlevelofaround45MtCO2peryearto1.2GtCO2peryearin2030IEA(2023).Crediblepathsto1.5C.Fourpillarsforactioninthe2020s.,andupto7.6GtCO2in2050IEA(2021),NetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),theroleofCO2captureandstorageisevenmoresignificantthanIEA,sNZEwiththeIPCC,s1.5oCscenarioshavingamedianofaround15GtCO2peryearcapturedin2050(IPCC)(2018),SpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5oC(SR15),.Similarly,theEnergyTransitionCommission(ETC)estimatesthatby2050,between6.9Gt(basecase)and10.1Gt(highdeploymentcase)ofcapturedCO2peryearisrequiredtomeetnetzerotargetsETC(2022),CarbonCapture,Utilisation&StorageintheEnergyTransition:Vitalbut1.imited,July2022,transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ETC-CCUS_Executive-Summary_final.pdf.AccordingtotheIEA,totalannualcapacitycapturecapacityin2023amountedto45MtCO2andalthoughdeploymentmomentumhasimproved-witharound200newcaptureplantsannouncedtobeinoperationby2030-evenifalloftheseareimplemented,thetotalannualcapacitywillonlyincreasetoroughly400MtCO2by2030,wellbelowthelevelsrequiredtoachieve2050netzeroobjectives8IEA(2023).CCUSpoliciesandbusinessmodels.ThisraisessomefundamentalquestionsaboutthecharacteristicsofCCSprojectswhichmakethemchallengingforfinancingandscaling,eventhoughthetechnologyhasbeenappliedfordecadesparticularlyintheoilandgasindustry.Thispaperseekstoidentifythemaincommercialandnon-commercialrisksassociatedwithCCSandanalyzeincentivemechanisms,regulatoryandlegalframeworks,typesofindustryandownershipstructures,andpublic-privatepartnershipsthatarelikelytoemergeindifferentpartsoftheworldtomitigatetheserisksandenableviablebusinessmodelstoscaleupthetechnology.Giventhatcountrieshavedifferentnaturalresourceendowments,regulatoryframeworks,andeconomicstructuresandasCCScanbeappliedtodifferentindustries(e.g.cement,steel,oilandgas,power,andchemicals),emergentbusinessmodelscandiffersubstantiallyacrosscountries.1.KeyrisksinvolvedwithCCSTheCCSvaluechainconsistsofthreemainactivities:CO2capture,transport,andstorage.CapturingCO2oftenconstitutesthebiggestcostcomponentforCCSandiswheresignificantcostreductions,efficiencygainsandfurthertechnologicalinnovationscouldbeachieved.AkeyfactorinthecostofCO2captureistheconcentrationandoverallvolumesofCO2inthesourcegas,withcoststypicallydecreasingwithincreasedconcentrationandvolumesofCO2inthefluegasflow.Insomeapplicationssuchasethanolproductionornaturalgasprocessing,CO2concentrationisquitehigh(>95%).Incontrast,inapplicationssuchaspowergeneration,CO2isquitedilutedandthereforeitismorechallengingandcostlytocaptureit(Figure1).Currently,themostexpensiveapplicationiscapturingCO2directlyfromair(DirectAirCapture)CostsofDACCScanvarywidelyfrom400-1000$/tCO2.Source:Webbetal.(2023).ScalingDAC:Amoonshotorthesky'sthelimit?.Figure1:1.evelizedcostofCO2avoidedbetweenCCSandunabatedrouteacrosssectorsr5050,11dos11悬口OouAJeUUBH三to1.g<B9SsM3Od-BoOracoE<u6ojpxh(meguP?三-eed)ec0EE4d9NDilutedSource:FigureextractedfromInternationalEnergyAgency(2023),CCUSPoliciesandBusinessModels:BuildingaCommercialMarket.Notes:Notes:BF=blastfurnace;CCGT=combinedcyclegasturbine;FCC=fluidcatalyticcracker;NGP=naturalgasprocessing;PC=pulverisedcombustion.CO2transportationtechnologiesarematureespeciallyviapipelines,asmanypipelinesarealreadyinoperationlinkedwithenhancedoilrecovery(EOR)InternationalEnergyAgency(2023),CCUSPoliciesandBusinessModels:BuildingaCommercialMarket.1.arge-scaletransportationofCO2viashipsislessestablished,butthegasindustryhasplentyofexperienceintransportinggaseousfuelsandthisisunlikelytopresentatechnicalbarrierespeciallyasthetechnologyrequiredisalreadyinuseforthetransportofothercryogenicliquidssuchas1.PGand1.NGSmallscaleCO2shippingalreadyexistsundermediumpressurenditions.ThefinalstageintheCCSsupplychainisinjectingandstoringCO2underground.CO2canbestoredinsalineformationsandindepletedoilandgasfields.AccordingtotheGlobalCCSInstitute,storageinsalineaquifershasTechnologyReadiness1.evel(TR1.)of9andexistingprojectshaveshownthatCO2couldbeinjected,monitored,andstoredpermanentlyGCCSI(2021).TechnologyreadinessandcostsofCCS.StorageindepletedoilandgasfieldshasalowerTR1.(5-8)asprojectsareyettooperateatacommercialscaleBui,M.Adjiman,C.S.Bardow1A.,Anthony,E.J.,Boston,A.,Brown,S.,.&MacDowell,N.(2018).Carboncaptureandstorage(CCS):thewayforward.Energy&EnvironmentalScience.11(5),1062-1176.WhilestorageofCO2scoreshighinTR1.,thedelayandunderperformanceofsomekeyprojectssuchastheGorgonCCSprojecthavecausedsomeobserverstodoubtwhetherthedeploymentofCO2storageatalargescaleandacrosstheglobecouldbeachievedIEEFA(2022).IfChevron,ExxonandShellcan'tgetGorgon'scarboncaptureandstoragetowork,whocan?.Duringthisstage,monitoring,reportingandverification(MRV)iskeyInternationalEnergyAgency(2023),CCUSPoliciesandBusinessModels:BuildingaCommercialMarket.TheinjectionprocessneedstobedocumentedandvolumesofinjectedCO2needtobeverified.ItisalsoimportanttodemonstratewithappropriatemonitoringtechniquesthatCO2remainscontainedintheintendedstorageformation.Thishasalsosafetyandenvironmentaldimensions.Systemsmustbeputinplacetomonitorleakageandprovideearlywarningsofanyseepageorleakagethatmightrequiremitigatingactionandtoassessenvironmentaleffects.SeveralcharacteristicsandrisksmakefinancingCCSprojectschallengingforgovernmentsandtheprivatesectoralike.Theseinclude:Riskofinsufficientrevenues:Formanyprojects,thedeploymentofCCSW川exclusivelybedrivenbyclimatechangemitigationgoalsandloweringemissions.InsuchprojectswhereCO2iscapturedandstoredundergroundand/orinbuildingmaterialssuchascementandconcrete,thereareno,orverylimitedrevenuestreamsassociatedwithCCSthatcancompensateforthehighupfrontcapitalcostsandhighoperationcosts(incontrast,forinstance,tothecaseofrenewableelectricitygeneration).Theseoperationalcostsinclude: ThecostofcapturingandconditioningCO2 ThecostofCompressingZIiquefyingCO2fortransport ThecostoftransportingCO2viapipelinesandships(ortrucksincaseofshortdistancesandsmallvolumes) ThecostofinjectingCO2intostoragesites,and ThecostofmonitoringandverifyingtheamountofCO2stored.Thecostofeachoftheseactivitiesvarieswidelydependingonprojectspecificfactors(location,plantsize,typeofactivity,thetechnologyinuse,tomentionafew)andtheliteraturereportsaverywiderangeofestimatesofthesecosts.RiskoflowandvariableCO2price/tariffs:Incountriesthathaveestablishedcarbonpricing,eitherthroughemissiontradingsystems(ETS)orcarbontaxes,theseinstrumentscanprovideplayerswitheconomicincentives,eitherthroughavoidingcostsorasrevenue(e.g.fromsaleofallowancesinanETS)thatwouldhelpthemrecouppartofthecapitalinvestmentandoperatingcosts.However,suchsignalsmaynotbestable,andtherevenuesnotlargeenoughtoprovideincentiveforinvestmentinCCS.Riskofinterdependency:Onewaytoreducerisksistodisaggregatethecapture,transport,andstoragecomponentsoftheCCStechnologychain.Ontheonehand,thisallowsdifferentmarketactorswithdifferentstrengthandriskappetitestocollaborateonCCSandtoallocaterisksmorebroadlyacrossthechain.Ontheotherhand,thiscreatesinterdependency/cross-chainrisksaseachpartofthechaindependsontheperformanceofothercomponents.Forinstance,ifanindustrialplayerinvestsinCO2capture,itisimportantthatthetransportandstorageinfrastructureisinplace.Itisalsoimportantthatthoseplayerscontrollingthetransportandstorageinfrastructuredonothaveunilateralmarketpowertochargeexcessivefees.Atthesametime,investorsinthetransportandstorageinfrastructuremustensurethatthereissufficientandregulardemandfortheirservicestorecoupcapitalandoperationalcosts.Riskofliability:AlthoughtheprobabilityofCO2leakagefromwell-selectedandmanagedstorageisverylow,thisriskcannotbeeliminated.Ifthisriskisnottransferredtothegovernmentorthroughinsurance,theprojectownerwouldbeliablefortheriskofleakageforanindefiniteperiod,withthecontingentliabilitymostlikelytoincreaseinvalueovertime.Otherrisks:ThereareotherkeyrisksthatfaceinvestorsinCCSincludingplantintegrationrisk,technologyrisks(especiallywhenitcomestothecapturetechnology)andfinancingrisk.ThereisalsoapublicperceptionandstakeholderacceptanceriskasmanyremainskepticalabouttheroleofCCSasaclimatemitigationtechnology,citingfactorssuchashighcost,uncertaintysurroundingviability,andfearsaroundthesafetyandpermanenceofstorage.SkepticsarguethatCCScanalsoperpetuatetheuseoffossilfuelsanddiscouragechangeinsocietalbehaviorandreinforceexistingdependenciesI*5Parmiter1P.&Bell,R.(2020).PublicperceptionofCCS:AreviewofpublicengagementforCCSprojects.ItisalsoarguedthatCCScoulddivertfundsawayfromcleantechnologiesIEA(2020).AneweraforCCUS.Table1summarizesthehurdlesfacedbyplayersthroughvariouspartsoftheCCSvaluechain.Table1:SummaryofhurdlesintheCCSSupplyChainCaptureTransportStorageCAPEXCAPEXCAPEXOPEXOPEXOPEX1.owandvariableCO2priceorcompensationforCO2avoidancePricerisk(tariffsforCO2transport)Pricerisk(tariffsforstorage)Volumerisk(volumeofCO2transported)Volumerisk(volumeofCO2stored)DecommissioningriskSafetyandstorageliabilities(CO2leakage)Publicperceptionrisks2. FrameworkstosupportinvestmentinCCSIndesigningframeworkstosupportinvestmentandscalingupofCCS,thefollowingkeyelementsareessentialtomitigatesomeoftheaboverisksandgenerateastreamofrevenuestomakeprojectsattractiveforprivatesectorinvestment: Stableandsupportivelegalandregulatoryframeworks Mechanismsthatallowstackingofrevenuesforoperatorsinthesupplychain,and VaryingdegreesofgovernmentparticipationintheCCSsupplychaintoenablerisk-sharingandriskmitigation.2.1 SupportivelegalandregulatoryframeworkAtthemacrolevel,thegovernmentcancreateanenablingregulatoryandlegalframeworkforCCS.Keyelementsinclude: Settingnational/regionalCCStargetstosignalthegovernments*commitmentforCCSasamitigationtechnology.Forinstance,intheEU,theNZIAestablishesanEU-wideobjectivetoachieveanannualCO2storagecapacity/injectiontargetof50MtCO2by2030,280MtCO2by2040,andupto450MtCO2by2050.,8EuropeanCommission(2024).Industrialcarbonmanagement-carboncapture,utilisationandstoragedeployment.IntheUK,thegovernmenthasatargettodeliverfourcarboncaptureusageandstorage(CCUS)clusterscapturing20to30MtCO2peryearby2030.ThesetargetsareintendedtoreassureentitiesthatwishtoinvestinCO2capturethatstoragewillbeavailable. Establishingregulatoryframeworksthatincentivizeinvestmentinlow-carbontechnologies.Carbonpricingisthemainmarket-basedinstrumentinthepolicytoolboxtoreduceCO2emissions.Carbonpricingcouldbeimplementedeitherthroughataxoncarbonemissionsorviaanemissiontradingscheme(ETS),andbothoptionsarepresentlyinuse.Governmentscanalsointroducespecificincentiveschemessuchasthe45QtaxcreditsforCCSprojectsundertheInflationReductionAct(IRA)intheUSandtheinvestmenttaxcredit(ITC)inCanada. Establishingaregulatoryandlicensingframeworktoaddressissuesofoperation,permitting,licensingofstorageandCO2transportanddecommissioning.Forinstance,theUKintroducedtheEnergyAct2023thatestablishesaneconomicregulationmodelforCO2transportandstorage,includinganeconomiclicensingframeworkunderwhichCO2transportationbypipelineforgeologicalstorageoperationswillrequirealicence.Thelicenceallowstheeconomicregulatortoaddressmarketfailuresassociatedwiththenaturalmonopolycharacteristicsofthisnetworkinfrastructure.IntheEU,theDirectiveonthegeologicalstorageofCO2(2009/31/EC),OrcolloquiallytheCCSDirective,aimstoestablishalegalframeworkforenvironmentallysafegeologicalstorageofC2.TheCCSDirectiveiscomprehensiveandcoversareassuchasselectionofstoragesitesandexplorationpermits,storagepermits,obligationsforoperatingandclosingstoragesites,andthird-partyaccess(MemberStatesmustensurethatpotentialusershaveaccesstoCCSinfrastructure).TheCCSDirecti