IMF-尼加拉瓜：2023年第四条磋商新闻稿；和员工报告（英）-2024.1.docx

January2024INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/18NICARAGUA2023ARTIC1.EIVCONSU1.TATIONPRESSRE1.EASE;ANDSTAFFREPORTUnderArticleIVoftheIMF,sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2023ArticleIVconsultationwithNicaragua,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage: APressRelease TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamoftheIMFfortheExecutiveBoard,sconsiderationonalapseoftimebasis,followingdiscussionsthatendedonNovember17,2023,withtheofficialsofNicaraguaoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonDecember21,2023. AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff. ADebtSustainabilityAnalysispreparedbytheIMFstaff.TheIMF,stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities,policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:Dublicationsirnf.orgWeb:Price:$18.00perprintedcopyInternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.©2024InternationalMonetaryFundPRESSRE1.EASEPR2415IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2023ArticleIVConsultationwithNicaraguaFORIMMEDIATERE1.EASEWashington,DC-January19,2024:OnJanuary16,2024,theExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)concludedtheArticleIVconsultationUnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Astaffteamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialsthecountry'seconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,theStaffpreparesareport,whichformsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard.MFwithNicaraguaandconsideredandendorsedthestaffappraisalwithoutameeting.Nicaragua'seconomyhasremainedresilientinthefaceofmultipleshocks,supportedbyappropriateeconomicpolicies,substantialbuffers,andmultilateralsupport.Afteraverystrongreboundin2021,theeconomygrewatasteadypacesince2022andisexpectedtogrowby4percentin2023.Inflationisdeclining,andthecentralgovernmentismaintainingasmallsurplusandhealthygovernmentdeposits.Remittancesareprojectedtoreachabout28percentofGDPatend-2023,doubletheirend-2021level,andsupportingaturnaroundinthecurrentaccountbalancetoasurplusofabout4percentofGDPin2023.Theforeignexchangeinflowsandprudentmacroeconomicpolicies,contributedtoarapidaccumulationofgrossinternationalreservestoUS$5billionbyend-October(orabout6monthsofimports,excludingmaquilsi).Economicgrowthisexpectedtocontinueoverthemedium-term,albeitataslowerratethanaverage.In2024andoverthemediumterm,realGDPisprojectedtogrowbyabout3½percent,supportedprimarilybyprivateconsumption.Theseprojectedgrowthratesremainbelowhistoricalaverages(2000-17)of3.9percent,giventhecautiousrecoveryininvestment,limitedapprovednewofficialfinancinglowerandlowerlaborcontributiontogrowthduetorecentemigration.Theexternalandfiscalpositionsareassessedtobesustainableunderthebaselinescenario,giventhecurrentpolicymixandfinancingplans.Thispositiveoutlookisaccompaniedbybalancedrisks.Ontheupside,realGDPgrowthmightbehigherthanprojectedduetoamoresustainedrecoveryindomesticdemand,includinginvestment,andstrongerremittancesthanprojected,especiallyinthenearterm.Onthedownside,adeteriorationofthetermsoftrade,oramoresevereglobaldownturnthancurrentlyincorporatedintothebaselinescenariocouldresultinlowerexportsandremittancesgrowth.Economicactivityandsocialoutcomescouldbevulnerabletonaturaldisasters,givenNicaraga,shighexposureandeconomicdependenceonclimatesensitivesectors.Inthepoliticalenvironment,stricterandwiderinternationalsanctions,couldnegativelyaffecttheeconomicoutlook.ExecutiveBoardAssessmentTheExecutiveBoardtakesdecisionsunderitslapse-of-timeprocedurewhentheBoardagreesthataproposalcanbeconsideredwithoutconveningformaldiscussions.Inconcludingthe2023ArticleIVconsultationwithNicaragua,ExecutiveDirectorsendorsedstaffsappraisal,asfollows:Nicaragua,seconomyhasremainedresilientinthefaceofmultipleshocks,supportedbyappropriatemacroeconomicpolicies,substantialbuffers,andmultilateralsupport.Afteraverystrongreboundin2021,theeconomyhascontinuedtogrowatasteadypace(about4percentin2023).Inflationisdeclining,andthecentralgovernmenthasmaintainedasmallfiscalsurplusandhealthygovernmentdeposits.Remittances,whichdoubledsinceend-2021arereachingabout28percentofGDPatend-2023,supportingaturnaroundinthecurrentaccountbalancetoaprojectedsurplusofabout4percentofGDPin2023.Theforeignexchangeinflowsfromremittances,sustainedFDI5andexports,alongwithprudentmacroeconomicpolicies,contributedtoarapidaccumulationofgrossinternationalresen/estoUS$5billionbyend-October(orabout6monthsofimports,excludingmaquila).Thepolicymixwasconsistentandadequatein2023,withtightfiscalandmonetarypoliciesandacontinuedreserveaccumulation,supportingabalancedgrowthpath.Theexternalpositionatend-2022wasassessedasstrongerthanthelevelimpliedbymedium-termfundamentalsanddesiredpolicies.Nicaraguaisassessedatmoderateoverallriskofexternalandpublicdebtdistress.Economicgrowthisexpectedtocontinuein2024andoverthemediumterm,albeitataslowerratethanhistoricalaverages.In2024andoverthemediumterm,realGDPisprojectedtogrowbyabout3½percent,supportedprimarilybyprivateconsumption,belowhistoricalaverages(2000-17)of3.9percent,giventhecautiousrecoveryininvestment,limitedapprovednewofficialfinancing,andlowerlaborcontributiontogrowthduetorecentemigration.Thispositiveoutlookisaccompaniedbybalancedrisks.Ontheupside,realGDPgrowthcouldbehigherthanprojectedduetoamoresustainedrecoveryindomesticdemand,includinginvestment,andstrongerremittancesthanprojected,especiallyinthenearterm.Onthedownside,adeteriorationofthetermsoftrade,oramoresevereglobaldownturnthancurrentlyincorporatedintothebaselinescenariocouldresultinlowerexportsandremittancesgrowth.Economicactivityandsocialoutcomescouldbevulnerabletonaturaldisasters,givenNicaragua1Shighexposureandeconomicdependenceonclimate-sensitivesectors.Stricterandwiderinternationalsanctionscouldalsonegativelyaffecttheeconomicoutlook.Staffsupportedtheauthorities'planstomaintainprudentfiscalpolicy.Staffsupportedthemulti-yearfiscalconsolidationplansandtheauthorities*effortstoaddressthestructuralimbalancesinthesocialsecuritysystem(pensions),andenhancebuffersgiventhecountry'svulnerabilitytonaturaldisasters.Staffrecommendedmoreambitiousfiscalefforts,toentrenchfiscalsustainability,buildfiscalbuffersandcreatespaceforhighersocialandcapitalspendinginthemediumterm,toreducepoverty,andsupportgrowth,throughtaxadministrationmeasures,bettertargetingsubsidiesandreallocatingcurrentexpenditures.Staffrecommendedthatmonetarypolicyshouldremaingearedtowardssupportingtheexchangerateregime,whilesafeguardingpricestability.Staffsupportedtheauthorities*decisiontocontinueadjustingtherateofcrawloftheexchangerateandemphasizedtheneedtoremainvigilantandadjustmonetaryandexchangeratepoliciesasneededtosupporttheexchangerateregime,whilesafeguardingpricestability.Staffassessedthefiscalandmonetarypolicystancesasappropriate,andthepolicymixsupportiveofgrowth.Staffemphasizedthatcontinuedreserveaccumulationoverthemedium-termisessentialtomaintaintheexchangerateregime.Whilebanksarewell-capitalizedandliquid,theresilienceofthefinancialsectorcouldbefurtherenhanced.Staffrecommendedincreasingthelevelofprovisionsfordistressedassetsandsupportedtheauthorities,effortstoensurethatsoundlendingpracticesarepreservedbyactivatingcountercyclicalbuffersasneededandincreasetheminimumpaymentsforcreditcards.Staffencouragedtheauthoritiestoalignthecrisispreparednessframeworkwithbestinternationalpractices,obtaincompletedataforcreditandsavingscooperatives,andexpandtheiroversightifneeded.StaffalsorecommendedcontinuingtomonitorFXrisksandstrengthenFXriskmitigationmeasures.Staffwelcomedtheauthorities*effortstosustainmedium-termgrowththroughcontinuedinvestmentininfrastructureandhumancapitalandrecommendedimplementingpoliciestoraiselaborforceparticipationandenhancethebusinessclimatethroughstrengtheninggovernmentinstitutionsandframeworksintheareasofcontractenforcement,protectionofpropertyrights,andresolutionofinsolvencies.StaffrecommendedimprovingtheeffectiveapplicationoftheAM1./CFTframework.Inparticular,staffrecommendedtheproperapplicationoftheAM1./CFTframework,inlinewiththeFATFrecommendations,toensurethatNicaraguacontinuestofarewellinthenextevaluationroundafterbeingremovedfromtheugrayIisfin2022.Theauthoritieshavetakenstepstoenhancegovernanceandanti-corruptionframeworks,yetmajoreffortsareneededtostrengthentheseframeworksandtheireffectiveapplication,especiallytheruleoflaw.Followingontherecentprogressintheimplementationofthe1.awofAccesstopublicInformationandcollectingassetdeclarationsofpoliticallyexposedpersonsthroughthedigitalplatform,staffrecommended:(i)publishingtheassetdeclarationsofpoliticallyexposedpersons;(ii)implementingrisk-basedassessmentsofthesedeclarations;and(iii)enactingwhistleblowerprotectionregulations.Toensurethattheanti-corruptionandgovernanceframeworksareeffective,andpropertyrights,contractenforcement,andinvestmentsareprotectedproperly,staffrecommendedthatthegovernmentstrengthenstheruleofIawbyguaranteeingadequate,effective,andfairadministrativeandjudicialrecoursetolegalproceedings,especiallythosewhichhaveconsequencesforpropertyrights.Staffcommendedtheauthorities*effortstoimprovefiscaltransparencyandurgesthattheseeffortsbesustainedthroughcontinuingpublicationofallauditreportsregardingtheuseofpandemic-relatedfunds,promptlypublishingtheannualfinancialstatementsofthecentralgovernmentandtheirauditreports,andexpandingthepublicationofSOEsfinancialstatements.Staffrecommendedcontinuingtoimprovedataqualityandworkingfurthertoenhanceinstitutionalcapacityinfiscal,monetary,financial,andstatisticalissues.GDPpercapita(currentUSS,2022)2,371.7Incomeshareheldbytherichest10percent(2014)372GNIpercapita(Atlasmethod,currentUS$,2022)2,090.0Unemployment(percentoflaborforce,2022)7.5GINIIndex(2014)46.2Povertyrate($3.65/daylinein2017PPP,percent,2014)14.4Population(millions,2022)6.5Adultliteracyrate(percent,2015)82.61.ifeexpectancyatbirthinyears(2021)73.8Infantmortalityrate(per1.oOolivebirths,2021)11.4Table1.Nicaragua:SelectedSocialandEconomicIndicators,2018-24I.SocialandDemographicIndicatorsI1.EconomicIndicators2018201920202021_P2022rel.v2023Project2024ionsOutput(Annualpercentagechange,unlessotherwisespecified)GDPgrowth-3.4-2.9-1.810.33.84.03.5GDP(nominal,US$million)13j02512,71312,68214,14515,67117,48718,910PricesGDPdeflator2.75.45.43.68.98.95.0Consumerpriceinflation(periodaverage)4.95.43.74.910.58.95.0Consumerpriceinflation(endofperiod)3.96.12.97211.66.04.8Savingandinvestment(PercentofGDP)Grossdomesticinvestment24.117.819.423.421.919.519.1Privatesector16.510.811.013.013.112211.9Publicsector7.67.18.410.38.87.372Grossnationalsavings22.323.823.020.320.623.521.5Privatesector19.619.319.113.613.218.115.9Publicsector2.74.53.96.67.45.45.6ExchangeratePeriodaverage(cordobasperUS$)31.633.134.335235.936.436.6Endofperiod(cordobasperUSS)32.333.834.835.536.236.636.6FiscalSector(PercentofGDP)Consolidatedpublicsector(overallbalanceaftergrants)”-3.8-1.2-3.0-1.90.1-0.7-0.5Revenue(includinggrants)28.431330.933.033.230.730.4Expenditure32.332.633.934.933.231.430.9ofwhich:CentralGovernmentoverallbalance37-3.2-0.5-2.7-1.60.30.60.7Revenue17.619.519.021.121.720220.3Expenditure20.920.021.822.721.319.619.5Cashpaymentsforoperatingactivities16.516.517.316.916.516.416.4Netcashoutflow:investmentsinNFAs3.53.54.45.84.83.13.1ofwhich:SocialSecurityInstitute(INSS)overallbalance370.10.20.00.1-0.10.00.0Revenue7.47.87.97.67.36.86.6Expenditure7.37.77.97.57.46.86.6Moneyandfinancial(Annualpercentagechange)Broadmoney-18.76215.613.811.318.510.9Credittotheprivatesector-8.7-15.6-3.65.315.615.612.0Netdomesticassetsofthebankingsystem-7.715.0-6.32.41.42.06.6Non-performingloanstototalloans(ratio)2.43.13.72.422Regulatorycapitaltorisk-weightedassets(ratio)17.019.523.921.121.3Externalsector(PercentofGDP,unlessotherwiseindicated)Currentaccount-185.93.6-3.1-1.34.02.5ofwhich:oilimports7.67.55.47.911.39.39.4Capitalandfinancialaccount19-0.84311.49.67.65.4ofwhich:FDI593.54.98.582625.9Grossinternationalreserves(US$millionZ0802,1993,0033.8284,1735J535,734Inmonthsofimportsexcludingmaquila4.7525.15.55.56.16.4Netinternationalreserves(USSmillion)*11461.3741,8872,5313,0113,8184,285Inmonthsofimportsexcludingmaquila2.632323.63.94.64.8Publicsectordebt"47.649.156.854.952.050.849.6DomesticPUbIiCdebt957.910.510.19.510.59.7ExternalPublicDebt38.041.246.344.842.540340.0Privatesectorexternaldebt44.243.644.139.735.631.629.0Sources:Nationalauthorities;WorldBank;andIMFstaffcalculations.vDatauptotwoyearsba<kcouldberevisedwiththenextpublicationofannualnationalaccountsdata.zrTbeconsolidatedpublicsector(CPS)includesthenon-financialpublicsector(NFPS)andthecentralbank.TheNFPScomprisesofthebudgetarycentralgovernmentonedecentralizedinstitution,onesocialsecurityfund(INSS)zonelocalgovernment(A1.MA)zandfournon-finandalpublicenterprises.CentralgovernmentdeficitandINSSrevenuein2018*2022includerepaymentsofINSShistoricaldebt.Projectionsfor2023*2028assumetransfersfromthecentralgovernmentwillcontinuetotheINSStodosethepensionsystemdeficitsExcludestheDepositGuaranteeFundforFinancialInstitutions(FOGADE).vAssumesthatHIPC-equivalenttermswereappliedtotheoutstandingdebttononParisClubbilaterals.DoesnotindudeSDRallocations.IncludesdataonthedomesticdebtofSOEsandmunicipalities.December21f2023INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDNICARAGUASTAFFREPORTFORTHE2023ARTIC1.EIVCONSU1.TATIONKEYISSUESContext.TheNicaraguaneconomyremainedresilientthroughmultipleshocksoverthepastfiveyears,supportedbyappropriatepolicies,substantialpre-crisisbuffers(primarilygovernmentdeposits),andmultilateralssupport.Afterastrongreboundin2021,theeconomycontinuedtogrowatasteadypacein2022andthroughJune2023(3.8percent).Inflationsloweddown,thefiscalpositionturnedintoasurplus,andrecord-highremittances,sustainedForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)andprudentpoliciessupportedacontinuedaccumulationofgrossinternationalreserves.Banksremainwellcapitalized,andtheloanportfolioissteadilyimprovingwiththeeconomicrecov