IMF-澳大利亚：2023年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；以及澳大利亚执行主任的声明（英）-2024.1.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/11AUSTRA1.IA2023ARTIC1.EIVCONSU1.TATIONPRESSRE1.EASE;January2024STAFFREPORT;ANDSTATEMENTBYTHEEXECUTIVEDIRECTORFORAUSTRA1.IAUnderArticleIVoftheIMF,sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2023ArticleIVconsultationwithAustralia,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage: APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsJanuary8,2024considerationofthestaffreportthatconcludedtheArticleIVconsultationwithAustralia. TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamoftheIMFfortheExecutiveBoard,sconsiderationonJanuary8,2024,followingdiscussionsthatendedonNovember1.2023,withtheofficialsofAustraliaoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonDecember6l2023. AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff. AStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorforAustraliaThedocumentslistedbelowhavebeenorwillbeseparatelyreleased.SelectedIssuesTheIMF'stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities'policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publicationsimf.orgWeb:InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.©2024InternationalMonetaryFundPRESSRE1.EASEPR2413IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2023ArticleIVConsultationwithAustraliaFORIMMEDIATERE1.EASEWashington,DC-January18,2024:TheExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)concludedtheArticleIVconsultation1withAustralia.Australia'spost-pandemicrecoveryremainedstrong.However,growthisweakeningontheheelsoftightermacroeconomicpoliciesandfinancialconditions.Whileinflationhaspeaked,itremainspersistentlyhigh.Thelabormarketshowssignsofeasing,andthepositiveoutputgapisnarrowing.Increasedcostoflivingisweighingonhouseholdconsumption.Theeconomyremainsresilientintheneartermbutconfrontsasustainedslowdowninproductivitygrowth.Riskstothegrowthoutlookarebalanced,withupsiderisksstemmingfromrobustimmigration.Financialstabilityrisksremaincontaineddespitepocketsofvulnerabilityandhigherrisksrelatedtoglobalfinancialconditions.Economicactivityisprojectedtofurtherdecelerateinthenearterm,asthetighteningofmonetaryconditionscontinuestotakehold.Growthisexpectedtoslowtoaround1.8percenty/yin2023and1.4percenty/yin2024.Falteringprivateconsumptionwouldcontinuetoputadragontheeconomy,ashouseholdswithmortgagesbearthebruntofhigherinterestrates,amidstlowerrealwagesanddepletingsavings.Understaff*sbaselineprojections,inflationwoulddeclinegraduallyandreturntotheRBA,stargetrangein2026.Whileexternalpricepressureshaveabated,leadingtoaneasingingoodsinflation,persistenceinnon-tradeablepricesdrivenbydemandpressureswillkeepinflationelevated.Apositiveoutputgap,amidsttightlabormarkets,wouldexertpricepressuresinthenearterm.Inaddition,whilerealwagegrowthhasbeennegative,thepick-uprecordedinrecentquarterscoulddelaydisinflation.Therecentstrongnetmigrationinflowsareexpectedtofurtheralleviatelabormarkettightnessbutaddtodemand,especiallyintherentalmarket.ExecutiveBoardAssessmentUnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Astaffteamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialstheuntry'seconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,thestaffpreparesareport,whichformsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard.Attheconclusionofthediscussion,theManagingDirector,asChairmanoftheBoard,summarizestheviewsofExecutiveDirectors,andthissummaryistransmittedtotheuntry'sauthorities.Anexplanationofanyqualifiersusedinsummingsupcanbefoundhere:IMForgExecutiveDirectorsmmendedAustralia'ssoundmacroeconomicpolicieswhichensuredstrongrecoveryandresilience.Inthecontextofnecessarymacroeconomicpolicytightening,Directorsobservedthatgrowthisexpectedtoslow,andinflationisgraduallydeclining,albeitfromabovethetargetrange.Directorshighlightedtheimportanceofcontinuedmonetaryandfiscalpolicycoordinationtoreduceinflationandrecommendedreformstopromoteproductivitygrowthandthegreentransition.Directorswelcomedtheauthorities*progressonfiscalconsolidationandcommitmenttodebtsustainability.Theyunderscoredtheneedforatighterfiscalstancetosupportdisinflation.Inthatcontext,Directorssawmeritinacomprehensivetaxreformandhighlightedthatrebalancingthetaxsystemfromdirecttoindirecttaxes,whileaddressingregressiveimpacts,wouldpromotegreaterefficiency.Directorsalsorecognizedthemeasurestakentocontainspendinggrowthandunderscoredtheimportanceofwell-targetedsupportforvulnerablehouseholds.Implementingpublicinvestmentprojectsatamoremeasuredpacewouldalsosupportdisinflationefforts.Directorshighlightedthepotentialneedforfurthermonetarytighteningtoachievethetargetedinflationrangeby2025andrecommendedadata-dependentapproach.TheywelcomedmeasurestakentobolsterfinancialstabilityandtheswiftprogressonimplementingFSAPrecommendations.Directorsencouragedcontinuedstrengtheningofmacroprudentialdecision-makingandcrisismanagementandresolutionframeworks.Theystressedtheimportanceofcontinuedvigilanceamidsttightfinancialconditions.Notingtherenewedincreasesinhouseprices,Directorsrecommendedtheadoptionofadditionalborrower-basedprudentialtools.Theysupportedtheinitiativestoboosthousingsupplytoimproveaffordabilityandemphasizedthecriticalityofsupportiveplanningandland-usepolicies.Directorscommendedtheauthoritiesfortheirrecentmeasurestotackleskillshortagesandimprovelabormarketoutcomes,particularlyforwomen.Theystressedtheneedforfurtherreformstoreigniteproductivitygrowthandfosterinclusion.TheyalsocommendedAustralia'scontinuedsupportformultilateralinstitutions,foranopentradeenvironmentandtheuntry,svoluntaryparticipationinthereviewoftransnationalaspectsofcorruption.DirectorswelcomedAustralia'seffortstomeetitsclimatemitigationtargets.WhilehighlightingtheimportantrolethattheSafeguardsMechanismcouldplayinreducingemissions,Directorsrecognizedthatmeetingthe2030climatetargetwillbechallenging.Theythusencouragedtheauthoritiestoconsideradditionaleffortstoachievethenetzeroemissiontargetby2050.Notingthatalternativesectoralpoliciescanhelpreduceemissions,Directorswelcomedthefocusondevelopingsectoraldecarbonizationplans.Table1.Australia:MainEconomicIndicators,2018-2028(Annualpercentchange,unlessotherwiseindicated)-20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028ProjectionsNATIONA1.ACCOUNTSRealGDPEtomesticdemandPrivateconsumptionPublicconsumptionInvestmentPublicPrivatebusinessDwellingNetexports(contributiontogrowth,percentagepoints)GrossdomesticincomeInvestment(percentofGDP)1/PublicPrivateSavings(gross,percentofGDP)HouseholdsPotentialoutputOutputgap(percentofpotential)1.ABORMARKETEmploymentUnemployment(percentoflaborforce)Wages(nominalpercentchange)PRICESTermsoftradeindex(goods,avg)%changeIronoreprices(index)Consumerprices(avg)Coreconsumerprices(avg)GDPdeflator(avg)FINANCIA1.ReserveBankOfAustraliacashratetarget(percent,avg)10-yeartreasurybondyield(percent,avg)Mortgagelendingrale(percent,avg)MACRO-FINANCIA1.CredittotheprivatesectorHouseprices(%change)Houseprice-to-income,capitalcities(ratio)Interestpayments(percentofdisposableincome)Householdsavings(percentofdisposableinme)Householddebt(percentofdisposableincome)2/Businesscredit(percentofGDP)GENERA1.GOVERNMENT(percentofGDP)3/RevenueExpenditureNetIendng/borrowingCommonwealthonlyOperatingbalanceCyclicallyadjustedprimarybalanceGrossdebtNetdebtBA1.ANCEOFPAYMENTSCurrentaount(percentofGDP)ExportvolumeImportvolumeNetinternationalinvestmentposition(percentofGDP)Grossofficialreserves(bnA$)MEMORANDUMITEMSWNominalGDP(bnA$)PercentchangeRealGDPpercapita(%change)Population(million)NominaleffectiveexchangerateRealeffectiveexchangerate71396644.54.&4.180.34.659.02.83.02.2-3.57O.6230I523.58623.S278SO-O.4508090.1.25.52.50.02225.25.8206469175.966:1.3Z6-5.58073410.7,1849.36,40.85253.33.85Q923,45011.226.2419.619.724.OO1a21.214&20,08.934.3S3419C52.426.7.33.8J6。1.1.O549.27.56566533O笺Z961.3371195-0.85149Q1119054.1-1.9-0.30.0040543112295920.笺223.6197910<23.2.6)52)5666g0102225211.9-0.3侬54.56O35,38.336-2-1-033.2.41.410732,7233.14.17.45.2.6侬55.1439610.31755.62644914540.31756.35368O56.5907010056.-0.62.1452Io334.5019,995”2Sources:Authorities'data:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookdatabase;andIMFstaffestimatesandprojections.MIncludeschangesininventories.21Reflectsthenationalaccountsmeasureofhouseholddebt,includingtothefinancialsector,stateandfederalgovernmentsandforeignoverseasbanksandgovernments.Italsoincludesotheraccountspayabletothesesectorsandarangeofothersmallerentitiesincludingpensionfunds.3/FiscalyearendingJune.-29.3913,14.:28.3INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDAUSTRA1.IASTAFFREPORTFORTHE2023ARTIC1.EIVCONSU1.TATIONDecember4,2023KEYISSUESContext.Australia'spost-pandemicrecoveryremainedstrong.However,growthisweakeningontheheelsoftightermacroeconomicpoliciesandfinancialconditions.Whileinflationhaspeaked,itremainspersistentlyhigh.1.abormarketshowssignsofeasing,andthepositiveoutputgapisnarrowing.Increasedcostoflivingstartedtoweighonhouseholdconsumption.Theeconomyremainsresilientintheneartermbutconfrontsasecularproductivityslowdown.FinancialstabilityrisksremaincontainedalthoughpocketsofvulnerabilityexistandrisksofspilloversfromglobalfinancialconditionshaveincreasedsincethelastArticleIV.Policyrecommendations:Short-termpoliciesshouldfocusonnavigatingtheeconomytoasoftlanding,bybringinginflationbacktotarget,whilemaintainingfinancialstability.Policycoordinationwillbecritical.Structuralreformsmustaddressdecliningproductivitygrowthandchallengesrelatedtoageingandputtheeconomyonthepathforagreentransition.Harnessingthepotentialofmigrationandinnovationwillbekeytolong-termprosperityandinclusion. Atighterfiscalpolicyisneededtosupportdisinflation.Fiscalpolicymuststrikeanappropriatebalancebetweensupportingmonetarypolicybynotaddingtoinflationpressuresintheneartermandthenecessarystructuraltransformationoverthelongterm. Monetarypolicyshouldbetightenedfurthertoensureinflationcomesbacktotargetearlierthan2026projectedinthebaseline.Thepaceoffurthertighteningneedstobecalibratedbasedonincomingdataandshouldconsiderthelagsinthetransmissionoftheeffectsofmonetarypolicy. Financialsectorpolicyshouldpreemptivelyaddressstabilityconcernsthroughmacroprudentialpoliciestoaddresspocketsofvulnerability.Althoughnonperformingloans(NP1.s)remainlow,continuedvigilanceisneededtosafeguardfinancialstability.Australianbanksareadequatelycapitalizedwithsufficientliquiditybufferstomanagenear-andmedium-termrisks. Structuralpoliciesshouldbecenteredaroundpromotingproductivitygrowth.Continuedinvestmentindigitalinfrastructure,moredirectgovernmentfundingforresearchanddevelopment(R&D),andmoreopenFDIregimecoupledwithlabormarketandtaxreformsareamongthekeystructuralpolicies.ApprovedByAnne-MarieGuide-Wolf(APD)andAnnaIlyina(SPR)DiscussionstookplaceinCanberra,Melbourne,andSydneyduringOctober18-November1,2023.ThestaffteamcomprisedAbdoulAzizWane(head),PragyanDeb,KlausPeterHellwig,KenichiroKashiwase,EvanPapageorgiou,andNourTawk(allAPD).Anne-MarieGulde-Wolf(APD)joinedtheclosingpolicydiscussions.RobertNichollandTanujaDoss(bothOED)joinedthediscussions.JohnSpray,AbdullahAlnasser,andNadineDubost(allAPD)assistedfromHQs.EmmanuelMathias,YaoDeng,andJonathanPampolina(all1.EG)participatedinvirtualmeetingsbeforethemission.CONTENTSCONTEXT:NEAR-TERMIMBA1.ANCESAMIDST1.ONGER-TERMCHA1.1.ENGES4ASOFT1.ANDINGREMAINSINSIGHT4A. RecentDevelopmentsShowtheResilienceoftheEconomy4B. OutlookRemainsRobustDespiteIncreasedHeadwinds9RECA1.IBRA11NGPO1.ICYTHROUGHTIGHTENINGANDCOORDINATION11A. FiscalPolicy-AvoidCostlyDelaysinAddressingChallenges11B. MonetaryPolicy17RISKSTOFINANCIA1.STABIUTYARECONTAINEDBUTPERSISTENT19HOUSINGAFFORDABI1.ITYREMAINSACONCERN22JUMP-STARTINGPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHANDADDRESSINGC1.IMATECHANGE25STAFFAPPRAISA1.29BOXES1. Australia'sSavingsRate312. FragmentationinCommodityMarkets323. Indexation344. TransnationalAspectsofCorruption35FIGURES1. Post-pandemicRecoveriesAreUnevenAcrossStatesandTerritories162. PandemicScarsAreAmplifiedinSomeStates,SlowingthePaceofFiscalConsolidation163. TheAustralianEconomyHasShownaStrongRecovery364. TheExternalPositionRemainsStrong,SupportedbyHighCommodityPrices375. TheHousingMarketIsConsolidating386. MonetaryPolicyHasBeguntoTightenSubstantially397. ThePublicSectorBalanceSheetContinuestoImprove408. TheBankingSectorRemainsStrong419. FinancialMarket:TighteningFinancialConditions4210. Australia'sMacro-StructuralPositionHighlightsIssuesPredatingthePandemic43TAB1.ES1. MainEconomicIndicators,2018-28442. FiscalAccounts,2018/19-2028/29453. BalanceofPayments,2018-2028464. MonetaryandFinancialSector,2018-2028475. SelectedFinancialSoundnessIndicatorsoftheBankingSector48ANNEXESI. PreviousIMFPolicyRecommendations49II. GlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsinAustralia50I11.MonetaryPolicyTransmission:Cross-CountryEvidence54IV. SovereignRiskandDebtSustainabilityAssessment57V. ExternalSectorAssessment65VI. RiskAssessmentMatrix67VII. RBAReview-AnRBAFitfortheFuture70VIII. FinancialSectorAssessmentProgramUpdate72IX. TransnationalAspectsofCorruption85CONTEXT:NEAR-TERMIMBA1.ANCESAMIDST1.ONGER-TERMCHA1.1.ENGES1. Australia'spost-pandemicrecoveryremainedstrongerthanpeers',evenashighinflationandtighterfinancialconditionsareweighingonhouseholdconsumption.Theslowdowninhouseholds1consumptiongrowthwas,however,offsetbyresilientprivateinvestmentsupportedbypublicinvestmentintransport,health,education,andnationaldefense.Netexportscontributedtogrowthonthebackofrobustsalesofcoalandserviceexportsbuoyedbyinflowsofforeignstudents,migrants,andtourists.Asaresult,thejobmarketremainedtightandinflationmorepersistentthanenvisioned.Thesizable,positiveoutputgapin2023isprojectedtonarrowinthenearterm.Morepersistentinflation,de-anchoringofinflationexpectations,andexternaI-demandshocksareamongthevisibleriskstothenear-term.2. 1.onger-termchallengestosustainedandsharedprosperityarebecomingmorevisible.Theeconomyfacesstructuralchallengesfromasecularslowdowninproductivitygrowth,populationageing,andclimatechange,amidstthedislocationsfromgeopoliticalfragmentation.The1.aborGovernmenthassignaledacommitmentto,seizethemoment*by,risingtotheproductivitychallenge*1throughevidence-basedpublicpolicymaking.TherecentlypublishedIntergenerationalReport,the5-yearProductivityInquiry,theBusinessCouncilofAustra