人民大2024战略管理（第13版）教师手册 David_13e_im_03.docx

Chapier3:TheExternalAvsessniefKCHAPTER3THEEXTERNA1.ASSESSMENTCHAPTEROUT1.INE TheNatureofanExternalAudit TheIiMiustrialOrganization(I/O)View EconomicForces Social.Cultural.Demographic,andNaturalEnvironmentForces Political.Governmental,and1.egalForces TcchnologiailForces CompetitiveForces CompetitiveAnalysis:Porter*sFive-ForcesModel SourcesofExternalInlbniialion ForecastingT<>lsandTcxhniques IndustiyAnalysis:TlieExternalFactorEvaluation(EFE)Matrix TheCompetitiveProfileMatrix(CPM)CHAIyIEROBJECTIVES.AlterMudyingthischapter,youshouldbeableiodotheiblloving:1. Describehowloconductanex(emalstrategic-nunage11>enlalit.34567892. DiscussIO11vjorexternalforcesthataffectOrganiZations:economic,social,cultural,demographic,cnvironnnlal.politicalgovernmental,legal,technological,andcompetitive.Identifykeysourcesofexternalinibmution.includingtheInternet.Discussimportanforecastingtoolsusedinstrategicmanagement.Discussdieimportanceofmonitoringexternaltrendsandevents.Explainh<>wtodevelopanEFEMatrix.ExplainhowtodevelopaCompetitiveProfileMatrix.Discusstheimportanceofgatheringcompetitiveintelligence.DescribethetrendtowardcperationanongCOmpelitOis.1().Discussmark式commonalityandresourcesimilarityinrelationocompetitiveanalysis.44CHAPTEROVERVIEWChapter3examinesthe100kandconceptsneededtoconductanexternalstrategic-managementaudit(sometimescalledenvironmentalscanningorindustryanalysis).AnexternalauditfocusesonidenlityingandevaluatingtrendsandevenInbcyorlthecontrolofasinglefl11n,suchaxincreasedfi)rcignCompelition,populationshiftstotheSunBdl,anagings<xriety,consumerfearoftraveling,andstockmarketvolatility.Anexterna!auditrevealskeyopportunitiesandthrcalsconfrontinganorganization,somanagerscantb11nulaiestrategiestotakeadvantageoftheopportunitiesandavoidorreducetheimpactoftlreats.IhischapterpresentsapracticalIrameworkandguidelinesforgathering,assimilating,andanalyzingenvi11)11mentalinfixmation.TheIndustrialOrganization(I/O)viewofstrategicmanagementisint11iuced.DoingGreatinaWeakEconomy-DunkinBrands9Inc.Dunkin*DonutsandBaskin-RobbinsarcunderoneumbrellacompanynamedDunkinBrandsInc.Dunkin'Donutsistheworld,sleadingchainofdonutshops,andBaskin-Robbinsisaleadingselleroficecreamandfrozensnacks.In2009.DunkiifDonutslaunchedaS1OOmillionadvertisingcampaignaroundIhetheme44YouKin'DoIthathighlightseverydaychallenges.Dunkin,Donutsalsointroduceditsfirst99centbreakfastwrapin2009,launchingfierceIronlalattacksonbothMcDonald'sandStarbucks.Thecompanyiscurrentlytestmarketingasix-itembreakfastvaluemenu.EXTENDEDCHAPTEROUT1.INEWITHTEACHINGTIPS1. THENATUREOEANEXTERNA1.AUDITThepurposeofanexternalauditistodevelopatnitelistofOPpOnUnitieStlatCoUIdbenefitafirmandavoidthreats.Figure3-1iIIuMniteshowtheexternalaiiifitsintothestrategic-managementprocess.VIN(VisittheNet):加rZ加加JmeGA中旬ccl”!W而JWMyii"11sgd"r""kgiu4即沏加gdescribeshowStnttegicplanningevolvedfivmlongraneplanningandenimnmenalscunfiing.A. KeyExternalForces1. ExternalIbrcescanbedividedintofiveb11xicategories:(I)economicIbrces;(2)social,cultural,dcn>g11phic.andnaturalenvironmentforces;(3)politicalgovemnnial.andlegalforces:(4)technologicalforces;and(5)competitiveforces.2. Relationsa11M>ngtheseforcesalanOrganizatiOnaredepictedinFigure3-2.ExternalIrendSatleventssignificantlyaffectallproducts,sen,ices.naAes.andorganizationsintheworld.Chapcer3:TheExiemalA<essn>en(3. ChangesinexternalforcestranslateintochangesinconsumerUenIandfixbothindustrialandconsumerproductsandservices.AnexampleofthisistheriseoflhcU.S.UnemploynientrateinJune2009toover9percent.B. TheProcessofPertbnninganExternalAudit1. TbCprocessofcrlb11ninganexternalauditmustinvolveasmanymanagersantiemployeesaspossible.Asemphasizedinearlierchapters,involvementintheStraiegiumanagememprocesscanleadtounderstandingandcommitmentfromorganizationalmembers.2. ToPerHwinanexternalaudit,acompanyfirstInUSIgatherCoinpetiliveinlelligenceandinlbmationaboutsocial,cultural,dc11)g11phic.CnVironInCntai.economic,political,legal,governmental,andtechnologicaltrends.a. IndividualsCanbeaskedtomonitorvarioussourcesofinfixmationsuchaskeymagazines,tradejournals,andnewspapers.h. ThCIntenielisanothersourcel<>rgatheringSlralegicinIbnnalion,asarccorporate,university,andpubliclibraries.i. Suppliers,distributors,salespersons,customers,andcompetitorsrepresentothersourcesofvitalinib11ation.3. Onceinl()nnalionisgalhercd,ilshouldbeassimilated,evaluatal,andprioritized.4. Keyexternalfactorsshouldbeimportanttoachievinglongtermandannualobjectives,measurable,applicabletoallcompetingfirms,andhierarchicalinthesensethatsomewillpertainto(heoverallcompanywhileotherswillbemorenarrowlyfocused.TeachingTip:Manyorganizationsarcscramblingtocollectinformationabouthow(oconductbusinessontheInternet.Thefollowingisalistofthepremiermagazinesthatarcavailableonlinethatfocusone-commerceandtheInternet. MoneyMagazine:htnx)n.connagazine!noneynag TheIndustryStandard:httpy RedHerring:http:/AVwW.似I，TeaChinKTip:TberCareanumberofInternetsites(hatprovideawealthfinIbniialiononpubliclyl*adcdcorporations,includingEDGARfilings,CQmPanypressreleases,newspaperarticles,andanalysts,estimates.ThefollowingisasampleofthesitesthatarcparticularlyUSCfiI1. HversOnline:htpw¼.hves.conV CBSMarketwatch:htt7cbs.narketwatch.nx,46 M:htlpwww.11omingslar.c<Mn MoileyFool:htpwvw.fi>l.con Yal!ConxnyInfi>nnation:hitp:/iinaiKe.yalKx).coin/II. THEINDUSTRIA1.ORGANIZATION(I/O)VIEWA. ExternalFactorsversusInternalFactors1. Externalfacto<sareInOnJimportantthaninternalfactorsinafi11nachievingCompeliliveadvantage.OrganizationalPerfbrnlanCeisprimarilydeleminedbyindustrj,forces.2. ManagingstrategicallyfromtheUoperspectiveentailsfirmsstrivingtocompeteinattractiveindustries,avoidingweakorfalteringindustries,andgainingafullUnderstaiklingofkeyex(emalfactorrelatioiiships.B. FactorsAffcctingFirmPerformance1. Hrmperformanceisprimarilybasedonindustrypropertiessuchaseconomiesofscale,barrierstonu,keientry.ProdUCIdi11erentiation.andlevelOfconipeiitiveness.2. Tlieglobaleconomicrecession'simpactonbothstrongandweakfirmshasaddedcredencetothenotionthatCXtCmalforcesarcnorcimportantIhaninternal.Manythousandsofinternallystrongfirmsin2006-2007disappearedin2008-2009.III. ECONOMICFORCESA.EconomicFactorsHaveaDircxiInipacl1. EconomicfactorshaveadirectimpactonthepotentialattractivenessofVariouSstrategies.Forexample,ifinterestratesrise,(henftndsneededforcapitalexpansionbecomeno匕cosilyorunavailable.2. Tliekeyeconomicvariablesthatafr11should11>nik>rarclistedinTable3-1.Thelistincludes(1)shiftstoaserviceeconomyintheUnitedStates;(2)availabilityofcredit;(3)levelof(Jisposxiblcinco11w;(4)propensityofpeopletospend;(5)interest11Ucs;(6)inflationrate:(7)unemploymenttrends;andsoon.3. AneconomicvariableofSignifkantinortanceisgrossdomesticpduciespeciallyacrosscountries.Table3-2listsIheGDPofvariouscountriesinAsiaforallof2009.UnlikenstcountriesinEuropealtheAmericas,mostAsiancountriesexpectpositiveGDPgrowthin2009.4. Trendsinthedollar'svaluehavesignificantandunequaleffectsoncompaniesindi11erentindustriesandindifferentlocations.Forexample,thepla11naceu(ical,Chapcer3:TheExternalA<essn>en(tourism,enlertainnent,11Xorvehicle,aerospace,andf(>rcstproductsindustriesbenefitgreatlywhenthedollarfallsagainsttheyenandeuro.Agriculturalandpetroleumindustriesarehurtbythedollar'sriseagainstthecurrenciesofMexico.Brazil.Venezuela,andAustralia.5. BetweenMarchandJune2009,IbeU.S.dollarweakened11PerCCnIagainsttheeu11duetothegwingUnitedStatesdebt,whichmaySoOnexceedSI2trillion.Table3-3listssomeadvantagesanddisadvantagesofaweakU.S.dollarforAmericanfirms.6. RisingunemploymentralesacrossIheUnitedStatesliastouchedoffaraceamongstatestoattractbusinesseswithtaxbreaksandfinancialincentives.7. Theslumpingeconomyworldwidealdepressedpricesofassetshavedramaticallyslowedthemigrationofpeoplefromcontrj,tocountryandfromthecitiestotheSUbUrt)s.Asaresult,thereislowerdemandforneworusedhomes.Ilius.Ihehousingmarketisex>ecedto忙mainsluggishwellinto2()1()and2()11.VTN(VisittheNet):hup:"WwW.hq.n心u.g*Wg.hlmexplainsNASAstrategicmanagement)tw:essandproidesNASA'sentirestrategicplan.TeachingTip:TheEconomistisahigh-qualityBritishmagazinethatisavaikblconline.TheIiiagazinepublishesinsightfularticlesoneconomicandpoliticalissuesthatareofinterest(obusinessstrategists(http:/.').IV. SOCIAUCU1.TURA1.,DEMOGRAPHIC,ANDNATURAI.ENVIRONMENTFORCESA.Social.Cultural.Demographic,andEnvironnwntalImpact1. Social,cultural,demographic,andenvironmentalchangeshaveaIMorimpactonvirtuallyallPIXKlUCis.services,markets,andcustomers.2. TheUnitedStatesisgettingolderandlessWhite.Thefive“oldest"andfiveOoungcst''statesin2007arcgiveninTable3-4,By2O75theUnitedStateswillhavenoracialorethnicmajority.3. Table3-2identifiesstateswithIheOIdeSlandyoungestpopulations.Table3-3listskeysocial,cultural,de11H)graphic,andenvironmenIalvariables.4. Social,CiiItuni1.demographic,andenvironmentaltrendsarcshapingthewayAmeriCanSlive.work,produce,andconsume.Newtrendsarecreatingadifferenttypeofnsunwrand,consequently,aneedtordifferentproducts,services,andstrategies.485. ASUmmaryofimportantsocial,cuhural,demographic,andenvinmmentalvariablesthatrepresentopportunitiesorthreatstorvirtuallyallorganizationsisgiveninTable3-5.V. PO1.ITICA1.,GOVERNMENTA1.AND1.EGAI.FORCESA. Federal,state,local,andforeigngovernmentsarenuyorregulators,deregulators,subsidizers,employers,aiklCUStoInerSoforganizations.Political,gove11mwntal.andlegalfactors.Ihereibiv.Canrepresentkeyopportunitiesorthreatstorbothsmallandhrgeorganizations.1. Forindustriesandfirmsthatdependheavilyongovernmentcontractsorsubsidies,politicalforecastscanbethemostimportantpartofanexternalaudit.2. ChangeSinpatentlaws,antitrustlegislation,taxrales,andIobbyingactivitiescanafleclFinnssignificantly.3. Inthetaccofadeepeningglobalrecessioncountriesworldwidearcresortingtoprotectionismtosateguardtheirownindustries.Manyeconomistspointoutthatthecurrentrashoftradeconstraintswillmakeitharderforglobaleconomicgrowthto!xxoverfromIheglobalrecession.4. GOVCmnxmlsaretakingComrOlOflnOreandmorecompaniesaslheglobalCa)IKHniCrecessioncripplesfirmsconsideredvitaltothenation'sfinancialstability.Asmoreandmorecompaniesaroundtheworldacceptgovernmentbailouts,thosecompaniesarebeingforcedtomarchtoprioritiessetbypoliticalleaders.B. local,stale,andfederallaws,regulator*agencies,andspecialinterestgroupscanhavea11uj<)rimpacton(hestrategiesofsmall,Iarge9fi)-p11)l11,andnonprofit<xganiations.C. able3-6providesaSUmmaJyofpolitical,governmental,andlegalvariablesdialcanrepresentkeyOpportiuntiesorthastoorganizations.TeachingTip:CEOExpressisanexcdlenlwebsite(hatPRNideS11unageswithlinkstobr(>a<irangesofresourcesthatarchelpfulinfollowingchangesintheexternalenvironment.Thewcbsi(cisavailableathttp:/.VI. TECHNO1.OGlCA1.FORCESA. Rcvoliitionarjftechnologicalchangesanddiscoveriesarchavingadramaticimpactonorganizations.1. MySpaceCXPeCt5a17percentincreaseinrevenuein2(X)9.Nearlyhalfofthesite's130millionmembersworldwidearc35andolder,and76millionofthemembersarcfromtheUnitedSlates.2. TlieInterneiischangingIheverj,natureofopportunitiesandthreatsbyalteringthelifecyclesof11>d>c(s,increasingthespeedofdistribution,creatingnewPr(KIUCISarlservices,erasinglimitationsofImdilionalgeographicmarkets,arlchangingthehistoricaltradc-offbetweenpr<xluctionstandardizationandflexibility.3. ToeectivelyCaPitalizeonintb11naiontechnology,anumberoforganizationsareestablishingtwonewpositionsin(heirfims:chiefinformationofficer(CIO)axlchieftechnologyofficer(CTO).Thistrendreflectsthegnnvingimportanceofinformationtechnology(IT)instrategicmanagement.B. Technologicalforcesrepresentmajoropportunitiesandthreatsthatmustbesideredinformulatingstrategies.1. Technologicaladvance11ntscandramaticallyaffectorganiations,pr<luct,services,11urkels,suppliers,dislrihtors,c<Hnpelitors,customers,rnanutacluringpractices,arlcompetitiveposition.2. Technologymanagementisoneofthekeyresponsibilitiesofstrategists.FirmsshouldpursuestrategiesIhattakeadvantageofIedWoIOgiCaIOPPOnUnitieStoachievesustainable,COmPeEiVeadvantagesintheHiarkelplace.3. Notallsectorsoftheeconomyarcaffectedccuallybetechnologicaldevelopments.ArecentWallStreetJounuda11icledetailedhowwirelesstechnologywillchange10particularindustries.able3-7providesaglimpseofthearticle.TeachingTips:Thereareanumberofon-lineperi<xlicalsthatR)CUSspecificallyontechnologyrelatedbusinessissues.Asampleofthesemagazines,whichPrOVidCSinIbrnwtiontostrategistsintc11nsofmoniloringchangesintheirbusiness'stechnologicalenvironments,arcasfbllors: CIO:httpJwvw.cio.conV ComputerWorId:hup:IWWW IntranetJournal:httpyws¼'.intraetjournal.nz MITTcchRcvicw:http:"WwW， Wired:httpwf¼.wircdomVII. COMPETITIVEFORCESA. Aninportan(partofanexternalauditisidentifyingrivalfirmsandUetenniningIheirstrengths,weaknesses,<>pportunilies,threats,objcx(ives,arlSlraICg沁s.CollcxlingarlEvaluatinginformationoncompetitorsisessentialforsuccessfulstrategyIbnnulation.501. ThetopfiveU.S.competitorsinfourdifferentindustriesarcidcntifiaiinTable3-8.2. Table3-9listskeyquestionsaboutcompetitors.AddreSSingsuchquestionsisiinpoilantinpertb11ninganexternalaudit.B. Sevenconceptsdescribethe11>sicompetitivecompanies:1. Marke(sharematters.2. UnderstandandivnemberpciselyWhalbusinessyouain.3. Whetherit,sbrokeorno(.ixi(.4. Innovaleorevaporate.Acquisitionisessentialtogrowth.5. PCOPlCmakeadifference.6. 'I'hereisnosubstituteforquality.VTN(VisittheNet):hltwC. CompetitiveIntelligence(Cl)P11>grams1. Cl.asfb11nallydefinedbytheSocietyofCompetitiveIntelligenceProfessionals(SCIP).isasystematicandeihicalprocessofgatheringandanalyzinginformationabouttlecompetition'sactivitiesandgeneralbusinesstrendstofurtherabusiness'sowngoals(SCIPwebsite).2. GckxIClinbusiness,asinthemilitary,isoneofthekeystosuccess.Themoreinformationandknowledgeafirmcanobtainaboutcompetitors,themorelikelyitcanfbmwlateandimplementeftectivestrategies.3. ThI伎strongmisconceptionsaboutbusinessintelligenceprevailamongU.S.executivestoday:a. Runninganintelligenceprogramrequireslotsofpeople,computers,andotherresources.b. CollectingintelligenceaboutComPeIiIorSviolatesantitrustlaws;businessintelligenceequalsespionage.c. Intelligencegatheringisanunelhicalbusinesspractice.4. TheInternethasbecomeanexcellentmediumforgatheringcompetitiveintelligence.5. FirnlSneedaneftecliveCIprogram.TlietlreebasicobjectivesofaCIn>granare(1)toprovideageneralUnderstatklingofanindusiryanditscompetitors.(2)toidenlifareasinwhichcompetitorsarcvulnerableandtoassessestheimpacts