人民大2024管理学原理（第10版）英文教师手册robbinscoulter_fom10_im_04.docx

CHAPTER4FOUNDATIONSOFDECISIONMAKING1.EARMNGoutcomesAfterreadingthischapter,studentsshouldbeableto:4-1.Describethedecision-makingprocess.4-2.Explainthethreeapproachesmanagerscansctomakedecisions.4-3.Describethetypesofdecisionsanddecision-makingconditionsmanagersface.44.Discussgroupdecisionmaking.4-5.Discusscontemporarj,issuesinmanagerialdecisionmaking.ManagementMjlhMyth:Agooddecisionshouldbedefinedbyitsoutcome.Truth:Agooddecisionshouldbejudgedbytheprocessused,nottheresultsachieved.SUMMRYTheoverallqualityofamangcr,sdecisionsgoesalongwayindetermininganorganization'ssuccessorfailure.Thischapterfocusesonthetypesofdecisionsmanagersmakeandhowhcyshouldbemade.TeaChinETips：Havestudents(hinkalx)utimportantdecisionstheyhavemaderecently.Questionsforstudentstoconsider:1. Didtheyfollowaseriesofstepstothinkthroughwhilemakingthisdecision?2. Wasthereahighdegreeofuncertainlyinvolvedinmakingthedecision?3. WasagroupofpeopleinvolvedinmakingIhisdecision?Ifso,didIhegrouphelporhurtthedecision-makingprocess?1. HOVVDOMANAGERSMAKEDECISIONS?A. Introduction1. Decisionmakingistypicallydescribedas“choosingamongalternatives.02. Thisissimplisticbecausedecisionmakingisaprocess.a)SccExhibit4-1illustratingthedecision-makingprocess.B. Whatdefinesadecisionproblem?1. Thedecision-makingprocessbeginswiththeidentificationofaproblem(StepI),adiscrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairs.a)Pfizersalesmanagerexample.2. P11)blcmidentificationissubjective.3. Themanagerwhobymistakesolvesthewrongproblemperfectly,islikelytoperformjustaspoorlyasthemanagerwhofailstoidentifytherightproblemanddocsnothing.a) Howdomanagersbecomeawarethattheyhaveadiscrepancy?b) ManagerscomparetheirCUITentstateofaffairsagainstanacceptablestandard.1) Pastperformance.2) l*reviouslysetgoals.3) Performanceofsomeotherunitwithintheorganizationorinotherorganizations.C. WhatIsRelevantintheDecision-MakingProcess?1.Onceaproblemisidentite(l.thedecisioncriteriamustbeidentified(Step2).2. Car-buyingexamplecontinued.3. Everydecisionmakerhascriteria-explicitlystaledornotthatguidehis/herdecision.a)Whatisnotidentifiedisasimportantaswhatis.D. HowDoestheDecisionMakerWeighttheCriteriaandAnalyzeAlternatives?1. ItisnecessarytoallocateweightstotheitemslistedinStep2inordertogivethemtheirrelativepriorityin(hedecision(Step3).2. Asimpleapproach,give(hemostimportantcriterionaweigh!oftenandthenaj>signweights(oIhcreslagainstthatstandard.a)Exhibil4-2liststhecrileriaandweightsinacar-buyingdecision.3. Thenthedecisionmakerlists(healtemalivesthatCOUIdsucceedinresolvingthep11>blem(Step4).a)Noattemptismadetoappraisethesealternativeonlytolistthem.4. Onceidentified,thedecisionmakermuslcriticallyanalyzeeachallernalive(Step5).a) Eachalternativeisevaluatedbyappraisingitagainst(hecriteriaandweightsestablishedinStepS2and3.1) Exhibit4-3showstheassessedvaluesforeachvehicle;itdoesnoreflecttheweightingdoneinStep3.b) Ifyoumultiplyeachalternativeassessmentagainstitsweight,yougelExhibii3-4.c) Notice(hattheweightingof(hecriteriahaschangedthe11nkingoalternativesinourexample.E. WhatDeterminestheBestChoice?1. ThecrilicalactochoosingthebestahemalivefromamongIhOSeenumeratedandassessed(Step6).F. WhatHappensInDecisionImplementation?1. Thedecisionmaystillfailifitisnotimplementedproperly(Step7).2. Decisionimplementationincludesconveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedandgettingtheircmmi(11>enttoit.3. ThepeoplewhomustCaITyoutadecisionarcmostlikelytoenthusiasticallyendorsetheoutcomeiftheyparticipateinthedecision-makingprocess.G. Whatisthe1.astStepintheDecisionProcess?1. Thelaststep(Step8)appraisesIhCresultofthedecisiontoseewhetherithascorrectedtheproblem.2. DidthealternativechoseninStep6andimplementedinStep7accomplishthedesiredresult?H. CommonErrorsCommittedintheDecision-MakingPrOCeSSI. Makingdecisionsismakingchoices.J. Heuristicsare"rulesofthumb"thatmanagersusetoSimPlifytheirdecisionmaking.K. Exhibit4-5identifies12commondecisionerrorsandbiasesthatmanagersmake.L. Somecommonmistakes:a>Overconfidencebias-theythink(heyknowmorethan(heydoorholdunrealisticallypositiveviewsofthemselvesandtheirperformance.b) Immediategruhficuiionbias-describesdecisionmakerswhotendtowantimmediaterewardsandtoavoidimmediatecosts.c) Anchoringeffect-describeswhendecisionmakersfixateoninitialinformationasastartingpointandthen,onceset.failtoadequatelyadjustforsubsequentinformation.d) Selectiveperceptionbias-whendecisionmakersselectivelyorganizeandinterpreteventsbasedontheirbiasedperceptions.e) Confirnuiiionbias-decisionmakerswhoseekoutinfonnationthatreaffirmstheirPaSlchoicesanddiscountinfonnationthatcontradicts>asjudgments.f) Framingbias-whendecisionmakersselectandhighlightcertainaspectsofasituationwhileexcludingoilwrs.g) Availabilitybias-whendecisionsmakerstendtorc11>c11bereventsthatareIhemostrecentandvividintheirmemory.h) Representationbias-whendecisionmakersassessthelikelih(lofaneventbasedOnhowcloselyitresemblesOIhBeventsorseisofevents.i) Randomnessbias-describeswhendecisionmakersIryIOcreatemeaningoutofrandomevenls.j) Sunkcostserror-whendecisionmakersforgetthatcurrentchoicescan,tcorrectthepast.k) Self-SerVi，以biasdecisionmakerswhoarequickIotakecreditfortheirsuccessesandtoblamefailureonoutsidefactors.l) Hindsightbias-theIendcncyfordecisionmakersIofalselybelieve(haltheywouldhaveaccuratelypredictedtheoutcomeofaneventonce(haiCIHComeisactuallyknown.11. VVHTARE3APPROACHESMNGERSCANUSETOMAKEDECISIONS?A. RationalModel1. Decisionmakingistheessenceofmanagement.Managersastheyplan,organize,lead,andcontrol-arecalleddecisionmakers.(Exhibit4-6).2. Managerialdecisionmakingisassumedtoberational.a)Rationaldecisionmakinginvolvesmakingconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraints.3. Adecisionmakerwhowasperfectlyrationalwouldbefullyobjectiveandlogical.a) Hcorshewouldcarefullydefinetheproblemandhaveaclearandspecificgoal.b) Thestepsinthedecision-makingprocesswouldconsistentlyleadtoselectingthealternativethatmaximizesthatgoal.c) Decisionsaremadeinthebestinterestsoftheorganization.d) Guideusersthroughproblemsbyaskingthemasetofsequentialquestionsaboutthesituationanddrawingconclusionsbasedontheanswersgiven.B. BoundedRationality1. Managementtheoryisbuiltonthepremise(hatindividualsactrationally,butarelimitedbytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.2. Mostdecisionmakersdon'tfittheassumptionofperfectrationality.3. NooneCanposSiblyanalyzeallinformationalonallalternativessotheysatisfice-acceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough/'ratherthanspendtimeandotherresourcestryingtomaximize.a)Decisionmakingisalsolikelyinfluencedbytheorganization-sculture,internalx)litics,powerconsiderations,andbyaphenomenoncalledescalationofcommitment,whichisanincreasedCOmlnilmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong.FrOnlthePaSttothePresentTechnologyandtheManager'sJobMakingBetterDvcisionswithTechnology1. Expertsystemsusesoftwareprogramstoencodetherelevantexperienceofanexpertandallowasystemtoactlikethatexpertinanalyzingandsolvingill-st11ctredproblems.a) Guideusersthroughproblemsbyaskingsequentialquestionsaboutthesituationanddrawingconclusionsbasedonanswersgiven.b) Makedecisionseasierforusersthroughprogrammedrulesmodeledonactualreasoningprocessesofexperts.c) Allowemployeesandlower-levelmanagerscomakehigh-qualitydecisionsnormallymadeonlybyupper-levelmanagers.2. Neuralnetworksarethenextstepbeyondexpertsystems.a) UsecomputersoftwaretoimitatetheSinictureofbraincellsandconnectionsamongthem.b) Peoplecan,teasilyassimilatemorethantwoorthreevariablesatonce,butneuralnetworkscanperceivecorrelationsamonghundredsofvariables.c) Forexample,mostbankstodayuseneuralnetworkstoflagpotentialcreditcardfraud.Hraudulentactivitiesonacreditcardcanbeuncoveredinamatterofhourswithneuralnetworks.DiscussThis:d) Canamanagereverhavetmuchdatawhennukingdecisions?Explain.e) Howcantechnologyhelpmanagersmakebetterdecisions?III. WHTTYPESOFDECISIONSANDDECISION-MAKINGCONDITIONSDOMANAGERSFACE?A. HowDoProblemsDiffer?1. Someproblemsarcstraightforward.Thegoalofthedecisionmakerisclear,theproblemfamiliar,andinformationabouttheproblemeasilydefinedandcomplete.a)Examplesofstructuredproblemsincludeasupplier'stardinesswithanimportantdelivery、acustomer'swantingtoreturnanInternetpurchase,etc.2. Manysituations,however,arcunstructuredproblems,arcnew,orunusual.Informationaboutsuchproblemsisambiguousorincomplete.JOExamplesofunstructuredproblemsincludethedecisiontoenteranewmarketsegment,tohireanarchitecttodesignanewofficepark.etc.B. HowDoesaManagerMakeProgrammedDecisions?1. Programmed,orroutine,decisionmakingisthemostefficientwaytohandlestructuredproblems.2. Whenproblemsarcstructured,managersrelyonprogrammeddecisionmaking.a)Automotivemechanicexample.3. Decisionsare11>gram11edIeIheextentthattheyarcreelitivearui11)utineandtoIheextentthataspecificapproachhasbeenworkedou(forhandlingthem.a) Pnigrammeddecisionmakingisrelativelysimpleandtendstorelyheavilyonprevioussolutions.b) Thedevelop-the-allernalivesstageisgivenIiuleaitcntionbecauseprogrammeddecisionmakingbecomesdecisionmakingbyprecedent.4. Procedureisaseriesofinterrelatedsequentialstepsthatamanagercanusewhenrespondingtoawell-s(ruciuredproblem.a) Theonlyrealdifficultyisinidentifyingtheproblem.b) Oncetheproblemisclear,soisIheprocedure.c) Exampleofpurchasingmanagerandrequestfor250copiesofNortonAntivirusSoftware.5. AruleisanexplicitStalenientthattellsamanagerwhatheorsheoughtoroughtnottodo.a)Rulesarcf11xucntlyusedwithawell-structuredproblembecausetheyarcsimpletofollowandensureconsistency.6. Apolicyprovidesguidelinestochannelamanager'sthinkinginaspecificdirection.a) Incontrasttoarule,aPOIiCyestablishesparametersforthedecisionmakerratherthanspecificallystatingwhatshouldorshouldnotbedone.b) Example,*wcpromotefromwithin,wheneverpossible.'*C. HowDoNonprogrammcdDecisionsDifferfromProgrammedDecisions?1. Examplesofnonprogrammeddecisions:decidingwhethertoacquireanotherorganization,decidingwhichglobalmarketsofferthemostpotential,ordecidingwhethertoselloffanunprofitabledivision.2. Suchdecisionsarcuniqueandnonrecurring,involvinganunstructuredproblemwithnocut-and-driedsolution.Thecreationofaneworganizationalstrategyisanexampleofanon-programnwddecision.a)Example.AJeiTBezos,strategyto“gelbiglast":1) Bezos'strategyto,*getbigfast"helpedthecompanygrowbutatthecostofperennialfinanciallosses.2) Tomakeaprofit.Bezosmadedecisionsaffectinghowthecompanyoperated,includingallowingothersellerstoselltheirbooksatAmazon.Forthefirstlime.Amazonmadeaprofit.D. HowareProblems,TypesofDecisions,andOrganizational1.evelIntegrated?1. Exhibit4-8describesIherelationshiphcveentypesofproblems,typesofdecisions,andlevelin(heorganization.2. Structured11)blemsarerespondedtoWilhPrOgramnlCddecisionmaking.a)1.ower-levelmanagerse>sentiallyconfrontfamiliarandrepetitivep11>blcms.3. Ill-structuredproblemsrequire>np11)grunme<ldecisionmaking.a)Theproblemsconfrontingmanagersuptheorgani/xiiionalhierarchyarcmorelikelytobecomeunslructurcd.4. FewmanagerialdecisionsareeitherfullyprogrammedOrfullynonprogniinmed.5. Organizationalefficiencyisfacilitatedbytheuseofprogrammeddecisionmaking.a) Wheneverpossible,managementdecisionsarclikelytobeprogrammed.b) Therearcstrongeconomicincentivesfortopmanagementtocreatepolicies,standardopc11tingprocedures,andrulestoguideothermanagers.c) Programmeddecisionsminimizetheneedformanagerstoexercisediscretion.d) Thisbenefitisimportantbecausediscretioncostsmoney.E. WhatDecision-MakingConditionsDoManagersFace?1. Certainty-asituationwhereamanagercanmakeaccuratedecisionsbecausetheoutcomeofever),alternativeisknown.2. Risk-conditionsinwhichthedecisionmakerisabletoestimatethelikelihoodofcertainoutcomes.3. Uncertainty-iswhenyou'renotcertainabouttheoutcomesandcan,tevenmakereasonableprobabilityestimates.IV. HOVVIX)(iROUPSMAKEDECISIONS?A. Introduction1. Manydecisionsinorganizations,especiallyimx>ra11ldecisionsthathavefar-reachingeffectsonorganizationalactivitiesandpersonnel,aretypicallymadeingroups.2. Inmanycases,thesegroupsrepresentpeoplewhowillbemostaffecedbythedecisions.3. ManagersspendasignificantPOrtiOnofheirtimeinmeetings.B. WhatArctheAdvantagesandDisadvantagesofGroupDecisionMaking?1. IndividualandgroupdecisionshaveheirownseiofStrengtlisneitherisidealforallsituations.2. Advantagesofgroupdecisionmaking:a) GrOuPdecisionsprovidemorecompleteinformation(handoindividualones.b) AgroupwillbringadiversityofexperiencesandPerSPeetiVeStothedecisionprocess.c) G11)upsalsogeneratemorealternatives.1) Quantityanddiversityofinfo11utionaregreaiestwhengroupmembersrepresentdifferentspecialties.d) G11>updecisionmakingincreasesacceplanceofasolution.e) ThisprocessincreasesIegitiniacy.3. Disadvantagesofgroupdecisionmaking:a) Theyaretime-consuming.b) Theremayalsobeasituationinwhichthereisminoritydomination.1) Membersofagrouparcneverperfectlyequal.2) Aminoritythatdominatesagroupfrequentlyhasanundueinfluenceonthefinaldecision.c) Thereisambiguousresponsibility.Inagroupdecision,theresponsibilityofanysinglememberiswatereddown.d) Anotherproblemfocusesonthesocialpressurescoconformingroups.1) IrvingJanis,groupthinkaformofconformityinwhichgroupmemberswithholddeviant,minority.orunpopularviewsinordertogivetheappearanceofagreement.2) Groupthinkhindersdecisionmaking,possiblyjeopardizingthequalityofthedecisionby:(a) Underminingcriticalthinkinginthegroup.(b) Affectingagroup'sabilitytoobjectivelyappraisealternatives.(c) Deterringindividualsfromcriticallyappraisingunusual,minority,orunpopularviews.e>Howdoesgroupthinkoccur?1) Groupmembersrationalizeanyresistanceto(heassumptionstheyhavemade.2) Membersapplydirectpressuresonthosewhomomentarilyexpressdoubtsaboutanyofthegroup,ssharedviewsorwhoquestiontheargumentsfavoredbythemajority.3) Thosememberswhohavedoubtsorholddifferingpointsofviewseek(oavoiddeviatingfromwhatappearstobegroupconsensus.4) ThereisanillusionOfunaniinity.Sileiweisassumedasbeinginfullaccord.f)GroupthinkCanbeminimizedif:1) Thegroupiscohesive.2) Itfostersopendiscussion.3) Isledbyanimpartialleaderwhoseeksinputfromallmembers.C. WhenAreGroupsMostEffective?1. G11)updecisions(end(obemoreaccurate.2. Ontheaverage,g11>upsmakebelterdecisionsIhanindividualsalthoughg11>upthinkmayoccur.3. IfdecisionCfTeCIiVCnesSisdelinedintermsofspeed,individualsaresuperior.4. Ifcreativityisimportant,groupslendIobemoreeffectivethanindividuals.5. IfeffectivenessmeansthedegreeofacceptancethattheIlnalsolutionachieves,thengroupsarebelter.6. Theeffectivenessisalsoinfluencedbythesizeofthegroup.a) Thelargerthegroup,thegreatertheopportunityforheterogeneousrepresentation.b) Alargergrouprequiresmorecoordinationandmoretimetoallowforcontributions.c) Aminimumoffivetoamaximumofaboutfifteenisbest.dBecausefiveandsevenarcOddnumbers,strictdeadlocksarcavoided.7. Effectivenessshouldnotbeconsider