2024趋势报告：可再生能源和太阳能研究报告-47正式版.docx

WRatedPowerapartofJENVERUS2024TrendsReport:Renewab1.eEnergyandSo1.arResearchReportIndex05Forewordfrom29Trendsacrding51Keysuccess57DeepdiveintoourCEOtoindustryfactorsofaRatedPowerstatsprofessiona1.s1.eadingenergy09Executivep1.ayerCanngprojecttrendssummaryStoragete<cnotoges(BESS)GridStabikzabonmeChodsMOdgPrefefen8S13AboutthesurveyRenewabfc1.egis1.ation(storageandBESS)Inverterpre/erenoesOversrt1.cabonof19UpcomingAnemacePVdepIoymentsrenew8bieenergysourcesStructurepreferencesrenewab1.e(Agr>PV,f1.oatingsdar)i1.Inves1.merrtindg博MianBtSScha1.1.engesDigftaftzaUonandautomation85Conc1.usionGndsaturationNotaWeinnvckxs,Evestmerrtinastrong1.aborandinstaUHymate11ate.andtrendsforce89WrapupPermittingandreguUonDesirednewfenewabteQYefSifk1.ionofregoa1.ada8soperations92ReferencesIncreasedsts1.andavaiabi1.itySkitedpersonne1.1.ackofgementincentivesForewordfromourCEOThepastyearhasbeenates!amen!totheresi1.ienceandadaptabi1.ityo1ourdustrya11v<1.s1.anever-changinggtoba1.energyCnSkWhesomeimmediatopressureshaveeased,theOngemggeopo1.itica1.unrest.PaQCgWthepcotongedConnietHUkraineandIensonsintheMidd1.eEast.COMrUJeto*npectenergymarketsandeconomiesWOfIdWDespitethesecha1.1.enges,theBGVQWeenergysectorhasexpenenoedsignificantgtoba1.gwth1.particu1.ar1.yiSotefPVandGecMCvecfies.TheIEAestimatesthatnear1.y90%toftota1.investmentine1.ectricitygenerationv/entRewardsImemissionsPeWerin2023.atrendthathasbeentrackingforsometime,andusisnoto®duetothepushfor1.oweremissionsbuta1.soth©undeniabteeconomiccaseformaturec1.eanenergytechno1.ogies.Them<xno11tumbehindthistransition泳nowsufficientforgtoba1.demandfora1.,oi1.andnatura1.gastodec1.inebefore2030.marking!hebeginningofmeendofthefoss4fue1.era.However,thereareadditiona1.obstac1.estoover11>onthejourneytowardsac1.eanerenergyfutureManagingsupp1.ychaindependencies,especia1.1.ykxcr*ca1.minera1.sikeRhkim,coba1.1.nk:ke1.andrareearts.remainsakeycha1.1.enge.Oureffortstodiversifyand20WRx<ti<MErrtfz&>«*M*cR1InnOVaiein(hisareaMi1.1.haveabigSyintheresJienceofc1.eanenergysupp1.ychainsnthefuture.Moth6PponentofthistransitionistheadvancementandiniegrationofbatteryenergystoragesystemsBESS).Iheabktytostoreand<>stribu1energyweneededw*rtmaketosupp1.ymoreconsistent,mitigating京Xneofthes1.rnonthegridintandemwttheesca1.atingdemandforrenewab1.einsta1.1.ations.1.ookingaheadIothefuture,waskedenergytn's1.ryprfosskxic*stosham<hrthoughtsonanumberoftopes,asamesnsofunderstandingthecurrents1.ateoftesector.Assomerecumngthemesnthesurveyresponsesshow,therearebothc1.earcha1.1.engesthatneedtobeso1.vedandexcitingin11ov丽CSjustarovndtheOXn(XWereexcitedtoseeerethingsgonextVPPo*w&RWcWJbs.E110AndcoFour*.RakaJPcwwExecutiveSummary2023vsayearwfe<,emuchprogresswasmadeintherenewab1.eindustry.FromategIs1.ativeperspective,theEuropeanUnionadoptedanewEnergyDirectwe?,raisingthw2030renewab1.econsumptiontargetto42.5%from32%.Aithesametime,overS27Obi1.1.ioni11'estmentsweremademmeUSInte18monthssincetheInftatKx1.ReductionAct,WBSintroducedin2022Theso1.arPVmarkethasPartieU1.ar1.yf1.ourished1.argeuti1.ity-sca1.eandsma1.1.dsuibu1.edso1.arPVsystemswereestimatedtomakeupvo-thirdsofthe2023projectedmcrease小g1.oba1.renewab1.eCapaci1.y4.Despite1.isgrowth,thecostshavef1.uctuatedthroughouttheyear,witPfBoehikesdnvebyvanousfactors,nefudingiatx)randinverters.Somesourcesindicatethatwindpowercou1.denduphavingaICWfir1.COeInsnsoarn2024mcertainregionsfortesamereasons.ThatS血SdarPVcontinuestohavea29%1.owerIeve1.izedcostofenergy(1.COE)thanthocheapestfue1.a1.ternativesreportedbyBkxxnbergNEF1teprojectiono1.tota1.so1.armodu1.ecapacityInS1.aItedin2023aroundtheWOrtdis413GM.Thisrepceseniedamassive58%growthfromtheamountinsta1.1.edr2022,Whehitse1.fwasana1.most42%ncreasefromthepreviousyearThistrajectorytooks阳Iocontinue.Wrthhhtargetsandprojectionsbeingmade.AreportfromAuroraEnergyReSearchrearterinth©yeersuggestedthatEuropev<>sontracktoinsta1.1.asdarPoWercapacityof475GWbetweenr>ovand2030.Meanwhi1.e,attheCOP28conferenceinDubai.Wodd1.eadersagreedtotrip1.etheg1.oba1.renev/ab1.eenergycapacity52030andhistorica*yagreodtocommittotransition初myfromfo&si1.KJeSomeinterestingtrendswerenotedinRatedPer,spftatfcnthisyear.Tbeckxnranc©ofbifacia1.mo<juQS.thegrowingtrendofstringinverters,andthegeographicvariationinstructurepreferencesa1.high1.ightevokingdesignandengineeringaproaces.Overai.theWOndscommittedto1.ov/enngrtscartjemss.andtherenev/abftesindustry»srighttherea1.ongsideWAboutthesurveyTogaininsightintotherenewab1.esectorsIfajeckxytc2024.WesurveyedenergyindustryProfessionatsfrom30OCXJmOeSspanningsixconbne11ts.TheyWerCaskedIxxj1GdUSIryChaJIenges.trends,innovations,andIheimpactdgovernmentIegiSiaIionandincentivesonthereneabte1.andscape.Iheygavetheirtakeoncntca1.techno1.ogica1.dancesnth©sectorandIheidea1.deve1.opmentsfywuWIketosecinthefuture.CXtheexpertsWesurveyed,over88%sadtneywodcwthth©Sdarsector,状曲th©S1.ccageandwindpwseemfeaturingproninenCyOw57%oftherespondentssak1.theyhaveworkedStheenergyindustryfor5to15*years.Justunder60%mefromOrganeationswrth1.essthan150emp1.oyees,and7%fromOrgamZagnSwithor5.000empto>oes2024TfHJc<<1.R*mwO<vEr*tf皿&>*RS<w<Whatisyourindustrysector?SdarSW87AndPo*r&IM1.onC11ngR11XOCO*5eresdr11HMAA*Nt4m、OUGas13KT«a«33.3%23.8%Forhow1.onghaveyoubeenworkingintheenergyindustry?15years 5-15yoar5 -5yearsWhat,sthesizeofthecompanyyoucurrent1.yworkfor?1.essthan150emp1.oyees150-1.0emp1.oyees1,0005.0emftoyees*5,000emp1.oyees"Thetimegaptobringgreenhousegasesdownisgettingnarrower.Weneedtospeeduptheinsta1.1.ationofc1.eanenergysources.Thecoming5to8yearsarecrucia1.formanyareasofthewor1.d."OQg1.Xo-OuerrWGR0>>M2汩心Iqxt,ScUrEx5SX"eGnbHiUpcomingrenewab1.escha1.1.engessectorforthecomingyear?arethebiggestcha1.1.engesfortherenewab1.eSckc<vefnmefrtrcrt>Mur*dffU)<yNJ4Trw>1.aMpt:r4rRf1.tSknrg>ardSUarM.nKapct1.Gridsaturationandinstabi1.ityUke1.astyearsurvey,yidSatUratonandhs1.abiityOntheotherhand,marryareasworfdzk!eareisthenmberonecd1.engefespondencsSeefcrattheindustry«n2024.667%ofthoseSUNeyedrkofenergysortfaU.Wi1.hreportsfromstatedareaasanissue,upfrom64%1.astNERCyear.c1.aimingthattwo-th1.fdsofNorthAmerica'sInareasoftheWOrIdMWegroonenergysupp1.nefabterthroughoutenergyperiodsPeWtfagnISpartjartyh"IOCaJgridsareatofex1.remeiyhighdemandther1.imits-Theyrequirefurtherreforce<nenttomanageteInf1.UXofvariab1.ePovasourcesTbmanageexcessandSbortfa1.sinwtho<utcurtai1.ingtheotect11otySUPPbe1.ectricitysupp1.y,there部anurgentca1.forAKhoughcurtai1.mentra1.esofanatteree%aeincreasedenergy(VRE)inte1.arger,moreinfrastructureandstoragecapacity.es1.abKhedMany馆newabkjenergymarketsarerisingOvGr3.rou11Cnsarc1.ookingtoCfetributedMindgeneration,andsatarra1.esareS1.f1.re½abeiy1.ew.betweenmorerobust1.oca1.gr心.andsma1.1.erp1.ants1.5%and4%心MostmarketshavebeentoWOfk1.ng11sresppBimpm11ti11gnewtor奴8tirCurtai1.men1.ratesQTWthe1.asttegis1.atkdecade,butthegeographcn1.dpa11Cybetweenandreducingregu1.akxybarriers.generatxxiandn3umtionhasbeenanufaoda1.teObstaofef<xmanyregicns.Asso1.armanufactiringCOmnue3toboomacrossGoom11wtshaveimptenwitedmeasurestotheUSAandgreennestmerrtsbecomemibga1.ecurtafrne<u,sucasthehigh-vo1.tagemoredrectC1.rTentntheUK.theEnergy1.mba1.aprea1.entinEurope,andacrosstheWortd.Market(E1.M)inCa1.ifornia,ortheincentivizingdemandforrenewab1.eenergyinsta1.1.a1.ionsba11e<te8inCNe.wi1.contnuetoincrease.Ifnotcareyp1.anned,thsgrossingdemandWi1.co11trfctotosa!rafonandrtherins1.ab1.ty.Permittingandregu1.ationOverha1.f(56%)oftherespondentsseepermittingandregtionasacaengeforthercnwaWeenergysector,butthisisdownfrom64%1.astye*Thsuggeststhata1.thoughthisissueStiBneedstobeso1.ved,theworkisa1.readyunde(Vy.Tho2022tmpofcryemergencyEUregu1.ationdesignedIostream1.<erenewab1.eprojectpermitsisschedu1.edtocometoanendin2024.however,thereareca1.1.sfromsevera1.countriestoextendf1.toaorimoretZTeeXsinthefiureWithotherregionsfoovi11gsuitbyimptemen<ingnewIar心andreducingExjfeaucratchurdaesthere£hopethatsta«edprojectscou1.dstartmoving.Investorsanddevetopersrequireregu1.atorySUMtyIoconfident1.ypourresourcesvtonewventures.TmeansthatCreabngmoreefficientIicensmgprocessesneedstobeaPrKXiWAtthesametime,theremustbeaba1.anceofenvro1111nta1.safeguardsv/iththe11cdtofast¢rackapprova1.sfornewprojectsWhenpermittingisacomp1.exaod1.engthyprocess,investmentrsoftendeterred,andprogressis3BddownWhenregu1.ationswide1.ydifferacrossregions,tisaddsanotherteyecofcomptety.A1.1.attsmakesItharderforrenewab1.eenergyproviderstogrowaodexpandtheirOperabons.20WT，”Hfpc<tWMrfrx*c*<>>tSki1.1.edpersonne1.Overathird(35.7%)ofpurveyre<x½ntsidentifiedski1.1.edpersonne1.shortagesasacha1.1.engethatneedstobeso1.ved.Asth©demandforrenewab1.escontinuestogrow,moreandmoreSkiBedpeop1.ewi1.1.berequiredtosustainit.Thsa1.somesatabmefemostindstnesarestrugg1.ingtofindtheSkitCdpcrsonnetheyneedVvMec1.eanenergyjobshavegrow)by10%!?intheUSOKgrowngtenation'sOVefartemptoymerrt.Thereare3.3mi1.1.ionc1.eanenergyjobs,andanincreasingnumberofthesepositionsarecarriedOU1.bycontractorsoroutsideconsu1.tanciesSOZingtisprob1.emM1.1.requreanemphasisontraining.eAjcaboandappr811tcsr>pstatxedSpecHicaIIytotheneedsoftherenewab1.eindustry.Comprehensiveprogramsmu&1.bedevek>pedthatareaimedatattractingtaentandnurturingandreiairungAwithConbnuousre-andup-skihng.engagementandpurposefu1.careerpathsSimi1.arprogramswi1.1.needIobedeve1.opedtohe1.pexpandtheSki1.1.setoftheexistingrevBbteWOdddfCeBeingadeptntecotogy.managcmontacumen,digita1.proficiency,andregatocyUnderstandmgw1.1.a1.1.beimportantmovingforward.Trendsaccordingtoindustryprofessiona1.s30iCC*Tfw><wtR««»*4t4in*Rm<18<4mRmovO>fp<1.1.*cdS4WCH1.GfirgrrVSpftnAut1.fdU6*»»S3t24NN2%Ifg1，®Xnn»V>koSu3iAfAbaOngA9B5«*«<%«rxWC*Tfw*<wrtRemt*n*RMd8<4mRmovOifp<1.Overthenextfiveyears,weredoyouseethebiggestgrowthareawithinrenewab1.espace?»%Encouragingty.theoverwhe1.mingmajorityofsurveyrespondentssaidteyhavehighconfidenceGth©futureoftherenewabtesEarkGtOver90%ofrespondentsratedtheirnfkfenceintheindutry,sfueure»eitherfourorfiveoutoffive,enaskedtoidentifythecountrieswitthemostPOCenUa1.forgrcwihinreneaWes.near1.yha1.f(45.2%)pinpointedtbUnitedStatesas1.eadingtcharge.CtunaandGermanya1.sorankedhigh1.yamongourrespondents,with33.3%and25%respective1.yOthercountriesthatmadeitintothetoptenInCk1.deSpain.Brazi1.,andAustra1.ia,eachrecognizedby19-22%ofrespondents,andemergngp1.ayers!ikeChfe.IngHeIMa11d>xico1.kingattheirxjstryrtse1.f,40.5%agreedthatso1.aristhesectorwithinre11evabtesv/iththebggeugraaTPOientiaJoverSeneximeyearStoragewasdose1.ybehindat31%,WhiIegreenhydrogen(15.5%),theghd(6%),andNnd(3.6%)roundedouttheresponsesStoragetechno1.ogies(BESS)ThoseiAtorespondedtothesurveyidentifiedbatterystoragete<tndogesandBESSassvita1.1.yimportanttothefutureOrrenewab1.eenergy.Theywi1.1.Piayakeyro1.einenhancingg11df1.cibty.butbettorporforma11ce.r3atk)11.andreductionsinpricewi1.1.beneededforthistypeoftechno1.ogytomeetitsPotenbaiSomerespondentsar©concernedabouttheh>gdep1.oymentcostsofstoogetchno1.oj>s.andoc5rxXdtatduetoits1.ong-termpotentia1.,themarketCurren1.1.yunderestimatesVak1.e"(BESS)iscrucia1.forthesuccessofrenewab1.eenergies."'Themorestorage,thebetter;morestoragemeans1.essnatura1.gasandnuc1.earp1.antsonstandbytofu1.fi1.1.thecapacityneedsofthegridathigh1.oad."1.kdnEnergy"BESSisacritica1.steptowardsmorerenewab1.eenergyintegrationandgridStabi1.rty."Pw<2SrxiMtEf1.KECr>9e*Mre&恭67，*The1.ifespanofBESSsti1.1.requiresmajorimprovementsanddoeshaveenvironmenta1.issuesattheendofits1.ife.Weneedtofinda1.ternativestothescarce1.ithium."MaGCySMtoOKc<c04rtrc½S&Scro(Pty)1.W"Storageinmanyformswi1.1.becomemandatoryinanygrid-ba1.ancingstrategy."War0>BcOfiraSo1.xFarSr"Renewab1.etechno1.ogieswi1.1.havenochoicebuttohybridizewithstoragesystems.Thegridisnotsufficient1.yreadytoreceivethe1.argeamountofrenewab1.esexpected."GitarkMBorwaRcgEnE72024TiRenewab1.e1.egis1.ationTheinf1.ationReductionAct(IRA)theUnitedStatesandth©RerwzaUeEnergyDrecKewf1.itheEuropeanUnkxiareOTeG1.Hpositiveskxtheindustry,actingascata1.ystsandi11centiingmorerenewab1.eenergyprojects.Severa1.respondentsempasaedteimportanceoftheIRAinve1.ytransformingtheUSmarketTbeEUOrectrveissconassettingfundamenta1.frameworksandtargets,a1.thoughthereareconcernsaboutwhetheritissufficienttomotraimemberstatestoreachthesegoa1.s,1.arge1.yduetorisinggaspricesandOpoftbea1.tensionsIheEU'$ComEmem1.oincreasingrenewawesproductionhasbeenfffced.tjtmemfcerstatesmustactquick1.y.ThesentimentfromtherestoftheWorIdshowedacommonIhemothata1.thoughtbirgovernmentsmtghtbeenactingpociesthatboosttheindustrythereISsti1.PteMyIobedonetoexpediteprojectpipe1.inesandhe1.pacieveamb<>snationa1.renv田bstargets.fdkfpc*tf*CM<MEr11j>0ft*taMcR*t"IRAgivestheUSAabigopportunitytogrow.TheGreenDea1.needstoopenmoretothespecificsoftheuntriestobesuccessfu1.againsttheUSAproposa1."CoroiruNwwSowd"Moremanufacturerswi1.1.haveachanceintheUS.Ontheotherhand,as1.ightoverproductionwi1.1.bringpricesdowne1.sewhere."O9>1.oto<rnros,SENS-<qo-ySrEn<r9ySM1.nmG11i1NXTnaMaMpt:WmrmMiCnaq,rdciarMartMapc<1A1.ternaterenewab1.edep1.oyments(Agri-PV,f1.oatingso1.ar,offshorewind)Astheindustryprofessiona1.sconsideredattematePVdep1.oyments,thereWaSamixedout1.ookonagn-PV.Whi1.esomerespondentssee<ashavingthepotentia1.forsubstantia1.growth,particartyGEuropeandregionswith1.andconstraints,<hcrsvoewitason1.yaSrnainichecomparedIou1.三tysca1.ePVWhiteconcernswereraisedabouttheh>ghinvestmentcostsassociatedwithf1.oatingPV.itisseenashavingsnHicantpotenUai.especia1.1.yincoasta1.BgeOnSorareaswith1.imited1.andava1.abi1.ity.The11oabngso1.arPVmarketisexpectedtovary1romregiontoregion,anditssuccesswi1.1.bettedtoso1.>dregatxa11di11fr<strc1.rimpvem0Es.Offeb(Tovi11dYGSateoVieWedoptimistica1.1.ywthhighimpactincertainregionsdespdeitsperceivedhhcosts."Offshorewindhashighpotentia1.,especia1.1.yinmarketsthatdonothavethepossibi1.ityofgrowingtheironshoreoperations.Now.themaincha1.1.engessistofCAPEXandOP