世界银行-黎巴嫩2024年贫困与公平评估-经受住旷日持久的危机（英）-2024.docx

c0q三4anso一305nd科YTHEWOR1.DBANK>CTAr1.EBANONPovertyandequityASSESSMENT2024WeatheringaProtractedCrisis?-二、-1<-1-2-二、-2-1'->Z*-:二-4-二二-二二1.Ja-一一£PeZc0三n4ajnsopss.9Iqnd5o2NQndVFY,©2024TheWor1.dBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433Te1.ephone:;Internet:RESERVEDThisworkisaproductofTheWor1.dBank.Tbefindings,interpretations,andconc1.usionsexpressedinthisWOrkdonotnecessari1.yref1.ecttheVieWSoftheExecutiveDirectorsofTheWor1.dBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresentTheWor1.dBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,comp1.eteness,orcurrencyofthedataInc1.udedInthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibi1.ityforanyerrors,omissions,ordisepandesintheinformation,or1.iabi1.itywithrespecttotheuseoforfai1.uretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconc1.usionssetforth.Theboundaries,1.ors,denominations,1.inks/footnotesandotherinformationShowninthisWOrkdonotimp1.yanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWor1.dBankconcerningthe1.ega1.statusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsucboundaries.ThecitationofworksauthoredbyothersdoesnotmeantheWor1.dBankendorsestheviewsexpressedbythoseauthorsorthecontentoftbeirworks.Nothinghereinsha1.1.nstituteorbecstruedorconsideredtobea1.imitationuponorWaiVeroftheprivi1.egesandimmunitiesofTheWoridBank,a1.1.ofwhicharespecifica1.1.yreserved.RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONSThemateria1.intisWOrkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWor1.dBankenuragesdisseminationofitsknow1.edge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwo1.eorinpart,fornoncommera1.purposesas1.ongasfu1.1.attributiontothisWorktsgiven.ATTR1.BUT1.OH-PIeasedtetheworkasfo1.1.ows:"Wor1.dBank.(2024).1.ebanonPovertyandEquityAssessment:WeatheringaProtractedCrisis.WashingtonDC©Wor1.dBank.”Anyqueriesonrightsand1.icenses,inc1.udingsubsidiaryrights,shou1.dbeaddressedtoWor1.dBankPub1.ications,TheWor1.dBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:;emai1.:PUbrightSWorIdbankQrg.CONTENTSAcknow1.edgments4Acronyms5ExecutiveSummary6JJ1.aAaj12Chapter1:PovertyinIebanon18Background19Monetarypoverty24Povertytrends26Sourceofincome31Spatia1.variationsinpoverty33ChaPter2:Profi1.eofthePoor36Demographics371.abormarkets39Privateassets43Accesstoservices45Corre1.atesofpoverty(2012and2022)49Chapter3:Impactofthe2019CrHisonHouseho1.dsandtheirResponses52Mu1.tidimensiona1.povertyin2018/2019and2022/202353Perceptionofhouseho1.dsontheimpactof2019economiccrisisandtheirresponses59Tbeeconomiccrisisandrisingfoodinsecurity63EVOIVing1.abormarketsdynamicsin1.ebanon661.ookingAhead72Annex1:Hypothetica1.1.ycomparing1.ebanon'spovertywithcountrypeers74Annex2:Vu1.nefabHRytopoverty76Annex3:GenderStatistics78Annex4:AUJ1.tmtmenS1.ona1.PovertyIndicatorsfor1.ebarx>n79Annex5:Ski1.1.MismatchesareRisingfor1.ebaneseWorkers80References81F"e2.10:(vneNofkeyassecsare1.owa11ngthepoor43Fjre2.11:AIOWe1.rsharec4Poofhouseho1.dshaveaccessmoreaffcrdab1.ePUbUCe1.ectricity45Fijure2.12:Schoo1.enro1.knentrateAreIcwerforpoorSyrianbd>okh46F¾jxc2.13:The(trffcfc11ccnmain1.yck>etoCrUoUnWtgapsMtheIrxcrmodiatcandsecondarytcb1.Icvoh46Fjre2.14:Househo1.dsarefacingcha1.1.engesingettingr/3accesstomedicineandmedica1.services,butmeresothepoor47Figure2.15:Whi1.eaffo<dabi1.ityofmedicationand11>edk1.servicestheprimaryIxsrriertorejuUfaccessfeeboeeho1.ds.highIQnSP<xtM5costsXWamorepronouncedobstac1.eforthepoor48Fgure2.16:H>efedcatkxatumentbytheheadandreceivingre11it1.a11cttreducethe1.ike1.ihoodofbeingpoor,moreion2022/202350Fijure3.1:ShareofrUtd11>ern>orUypc<xindt¼ndh54Figure3.2:AHSingshareofMPIpoorhdepciva1.ionroverIwothirdsofthemu1.tidimensiona1.i11dicA1.ona1.1.udestoadeepeningofmu1.tidimensiona1.poverty55FWe33:1.argeWeasesmtheWdeMe以mutmensk)MpovertytookPUCeinMOUM1.et11.NcrrhIebanonandAkkar56FIeUfe3.4:Mwgtheu1.t1.d1.mens1.onB1.1.yor,thereferisingdepfttonsInaccesstosenses57F>gure3.5:Betvwn2018/2019and2022/2023.hea1.thandfinancia1.ecur<yremainedthemeatpromenentdimensionsofdeprivationfortheMP1.poorStenso(IheIfshares.WMebs1.cInfrastructurehasriseninpromJnenceasanaddedsourceofpan58Figvre3.6:APrOPCetionofhouscokhattributethe2019economiccrisestoafa1.1.inCWrmg559Fre3.7:Househo1.dscopedwttheMUOUto<the2019economiccrisesby"用现Sosavings,ae113he1.pfro<nmibp(eavenueiexceptfromthegCr11H!111.andtztfun;out1.oan<txinoncredit60F叫RJHedXsocope*nhthe伯U(XXofthe2019i6>sbycuttingbackexpexKires.PartKu1.arIyf0>dfo1.1.owdbyCttenUa1.nc<vfoodendi11.andonhea1.th61Figure3.9:Inresponsetothecng,poor1.<banwcweremoreIikdytogethdpfromrdatvwandf11CT<fcwhereasSyriansPUrWCdhe1.pfromotherunre1.atedpersonsand11cngpwmmcntcnttCT62FWe3,10:Tbecrisiscauseda1.Br¾ersharectpoorSynan5toreducespendingonfoodv4ere5poor1.ebanwefami1.iesweremore1.dytocutonessentia1.nonfoodandhe1.themn62FP1.jre3.11:POBhouseho<cfein2OZ22O23#eSbCEgsignsofAdequateOeCSaccordingtothefoodCOasMmPnono*e(FCS)63Rjjre3.12:1.ebanesehrte1.*dsvH1.MycutbackonmeatconsumptionowthePaS1.decade64F>jre3.13:ThepoorWCTemc<e1.kertoPeriUeavarietyfapprcbtntoCOPewitha1.ackOffd<xmeansofpurctusngit65Fxe3.14:Key1.abormarketOacOnXSforthe1.chanmcWcrCrdatwdySTn1.brbetween2012and2019,butweakenedthereafter66FWeMS:Bycontrast,theIabcr11wkethasnotbeenfavxaMeto111.etWreSesince201266Fjre3.16:Across2018/2019and2022/2023,1.ebaneseweremaWyworkingInMio1.esa1.eandretai1.,towtnemandarmedforcesandeducatwbuttherearerwgsharesseeking)ob$motherserves,hosp<tabty,admn*5tratn,esupportandajncUture_68Figure3.17:Ncn1.rtxne¾earccc<enCra1.edinfewmix，fOTpta>we111.andthereisarisingsharemovingintoaKiiUre69FWe3,18:in2022/2023,1.etidnesearemeet1.yemp1.oyedinSMUedPoSiU005v*teSyriansarem1.ow-ski1.1.edx)t»70HjUre3.19:Post2019,IetxaneseareHfXj1.fVifeweropportunitiesinmidd1.etoh协5kiUedpost>nsandarerescrtingtoIwerSkM1.jobs71AnnexFure1:POEVIn1.ebenonBCOnXMradve<y1.owreUtvetootherMEHACantrteS74Arr*cxFre2:1.ebanon'spovertyraten1.ewncomparwonwithCOUmneIhavingsimi1.arpcr*0piUincome.75AmexFqUrC3:.but5tn1.inewithCOUKnCfthathawConpJrab1.CICveKofper-capitaPnVMUCCreUTPtWCMXrg代ur075AnnexFtfiure4:1.ebanon'smkW1.ec1.ass15ShCnk1.neasthe«zeerfuVXMneQbftepouMWgrows76AmexFigure5:RiskWxedVUme出W1.tyisaWejerfactorinexp1.ainingthevu1.nabi1.ityof1.ebanwehouse*WfctoPomy77Amexfure6:Higherhomcbo1.dMEeducationkrrdsareamxiated*ith1.owerra1.eiofvu1.nerabi1.ityamwgthe1.ebenoe77AnnexFtgurc7:SMhrnnmaUhbyt>pesofoccupMnandyear,1.cbanco&1.istofTab1.esAnnexTab1.e1:(xcrxnocdandefinitcm7711e×TaNe2:1.ebanondisae®Medge<x<stattsucs,2022/202378XnnexTab1.e3:AAu1.bdimensxna1.PoWty1.11(catonfoe1.ebanon79ACKNOW1.EDGMENTSThispovertyassessmenthasbeenpreparedbyacoreteamconsistingofGaneshSeshan(TaskTeam1.eader,SeniorEconomist,EMNPV),Ta1.aIsmai1.任COnoEist,EMNPV),andStefaniaRodicaCnob1.och(Consu1.tant,EMNPV).TheBackgroundsectionmChapter1benefitedfromdatainputsfromDimaKrayem(SeniorEconomist.EMNMT)andNajiAbouHamde(Ana1.yst.EMNT).Thesectionon1.abormarketsinChapter2drewonana1.ysisfromAnge1.aE1.zirAssi(Socia1.ProtectionSpecia1.ist,HMNSP)andA1.iAbboud(Consu1.tant,HMNSP).ChineduObiTemp1.e(Consu1.tant,EMNPV)contributedtothe1.abormarketdynamicsana1.ysisinChapter3.Thevu1.nerabi1.ityana1.ysisfeaturedinAnnex2wasconductedbyRomeoJackyGansey(Consu1.tant,EMNPV).Inputsweregratefu1.1.yreceivedfromtheWho<eofEconomyC1.imateChangeProgramMENAteam,particu1.ar1.ySandraBaquie(Economist,EMNPV),andChitraBa1.asubramanian(Consu1.tantrEMNPV).Additiona1.inputswerea1.soprovidedbyZeinaE1.Khoury(SeniorPnvateSectorDeve1.opmentSpeciaUstrEMNF2).MiraMorad(SeniorTransportSpecia1.ist,IMNT1)andGae1.1.eSamaha(TransportSpecia1.ist.INT1.Theteamwou1.da1.so1.iketothankHaneenSayedforhercontributiontothedeve1.opmentofthe2022/20231.ebanonHouseho1.dSurvey(1.HS).The2022/20231.ebanonHouseho1.dSurvey(1.HS)wasjoint1.ydeve1.opedandcofundedbytheV/or1.dBank,Wor1.dFoodProgrammeandUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees.Dataco1.1.ectionforthe2022/20231.HSwasdonebyConsu1.tationandResearchInstitute,1.ebanon.Theteamisgratefu1.tothereport'speerreviewersforthoughtfu1.inputsandcomments.Thepeer-reviewerswereUtzJohannPape(1.eadEconomist,EAWPV),AzizAtamanov(SeniorEconomist.EAEPV),andJohannesHoogeveen(SenwEconomist,EAWPV).AmentswerereceivedfromAndreasB1.om(PracticeManager,HMNED)andAde1.1.ePushparatnam(SeniorEducationSpecia1.ist,HMED).ThisworkhasbeenpreparedunderthedirectionandguidanceofSa1.manZaidi(PracticeManager,EMNPV),A1.anFuchs(ActingPracticeManage1.EMNPV),JohannesHoogeVeen(FormerEMNPVPracticeManager：SeniorEconomist,EWPV),NorbertFiess(1.eadCountryEconomist/Program1.eader.EMNDR)andJeanChristopheCarret(CountryDirector,MNCo2).ZeinaE1.Kha1.i1.(SeniorExterna1.AffairsOfficer,ECRA时isthe1.eadoncommunications,outreach,andpub1.ishing.ThisreporthasbeendesignedbyHannaChang.Fina1.1.y,thisworkwassupportedbyfundingfromtheProspectsTrustFund.PhotoCreditsCoverMohamadAzakir/Wor1.dBankPage36MohamadAzak1.r/Wor1.dBankPage6A1.iChehade/ShutterstockPage44MohamadAzakir/Wor1.dBankPage11Marce1.Rached/Internatrana1.AnancePage51MohamadAzakir/Wor1.dBankCorporationPage52MohamadAzak1.r/Wor1.dBankPage18MohamadAzakir/Wor1.dBankPage37MohamadAzakir/Wor1.dBankPage35Catay/StockPage721001.nights/iStockACRONYMSCASCentra1.AdministratioaofStatisticsCPIConsumerPriceIndexEd1.E1.ectridtedu1.ibanFAOFOodandAgricu1.tura1.OrganizationFCSFoodConsumptionScoreGDPGrossDomesticProductGo1.GovemmeNof1.ebanonHBSHoUSeho1.dBudgetSurveyHHIHerfindah1.-HirschmanIndex1.BP1.ebanesePound1.FH1.CS1.aborForceandHouseho1.d1.ivingConditionsSurvey1.HS1.ebanonHouseho1.dSurveyMENAMidd1.eEastandNorthAfricaMPIMu1.tK1.ImensIona1.PovertyIndexNSSFNationa1.Socia1.SecurityFundPIPPovertyandInequa1.ityP1.atformPPPPurchasingPowerParityUMICUpper-Midd1.eIncomeCountryUNUnitedNationsUNDESAUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocia1.AffairsUNHCRUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugeesUSDUnitedStatesDo1.1.arWFPWor1.dFoodProgrammeWHOWor1.dHea1.thOrganization豆S三OMaSnOM-OQJeWSAUNon-poorPoorPoor1.ebanesePoorSyrianhouseho1.dshouseho1.dshouseho1.dshouseho1.dsFigure2.10:Ownershipofkeyassetsare1.owamongthepoorNonpoorhouseho1.dsPoorhomeo1.<Poor1.ebanesehouseho1.dsPrSyrianhouseho1.dsScarce:WorWBankSUffestimatesus11H2022/2023Jbovem<xM第ofAM<ar,Beirut,BeOa,Mxnt1.ebanonandNcrTh1.ebanonc<ty.Figure2.9:Househo1.dsin2022/2023canbare1.ysaveandthemajorityarestrugg1.ingtomeetbasicneeds Incomeshortfa1.1.,significantdifficu1.tymeetingbasicneeds Incomeshortfa1.1.,somedifficu1.tymeetwigbaskneeds Sufficientincomecannotsave Sufficientincome,ab1.etosaveNate:EstimatesareMnKedtohouseokfeInthegovernoratesofAJcky,Beirut,BeKaa.MountIetwncnandNorth1.etencn.Source:WortdBankstaffestimatesusing1.HS2022/2023.PrivateassetsOwnershipofkeyassetssuchasahomeorvehic1.e,Indicatorsoffinancia1.stabi1.ityandsocio-economicstatus,portraysinequa1.ityacrosspopu1.atisegments,ref1.ectingbroadereconomicconditions.Whi1.enear1.ythreeoutofeveryfivehouseho1.dsinthefivegovernoratesowntheirhomes-theshareofhomeOvaiershipforpoorhouseho1.dsat35percentisha1.fthatoftheirnopoorcounterparts.Thefureishigheramongpoor1.ebanesehouseho1.dat55percent,whi1.ehomeownershipispractica1.1.yabsentforimpoverishedSyrianfami1.ies.Giventheunderdeve1.opedstateofpub1.ictransportationInthecountry,thepossessionofamotorvehic1.e(carorpickup)a1.socritica1.inaccessingservicesandemp1.oyr>entOpportuniUes.nWith72percentofnoprhouseho1.dsowningavehic1.e,on1.y28percentdosoamongpr1.ebanesehouseho1.dsandjust3percentforpoorSyrianfami1.ies(Figure2.10).33The1.ackc(are1.iab1.epub1.ictra11spofUc<3y3temhasbeenapersistentChaUenjen1.ebanona1.crg*ththehhcostc(VehidCcmnefshipCModdBankt2015).AccesstoservicesE1.ECTRICITYTheeconomiccrisis'simpactonenergyaccesswasstark1.yi1.1.ustratedbyasignificantdisruptionindai1.y1.ife,witha1.1.socioeconomicgroupsexperiencinga7-hourreduction,onaverage,indai1.yetect11cityavai1.abi1.itysinceOctober2019.Atthecoreof1.ebanon'spersistentdectnctycrisisBthe1.oss-makingsuteownedpub1.icuti1.ity.6ectrtcteduUban(Ed1.)'Sinabi1.itytogenerateWff)dentetectncity.withsupp1.yaveraging23hoursdai1.y,compoundedbythe1.oca1.cufency,sdeva1.uationthathassevere1.yrestrictedEdUsabi1.itytoaffordessentia1.fue1.forPowergeneration.Asaresu1.t,residentsof1.ebanonhaveincreasing1.yturnedtoa1.ternativee1.ectricitysourcestocompensatefortheshortfa1.1.fromEd1.,sinadequatesupp1.y.E1.ectridtyconsumptionpatternsacrosssocioeconomicgroupshh1.htdisparitiesInenergyaccess,withnon-poorhouseho1.dsbetterab1.etouti1.izesubsidizedpub1.icgridservices,un1.ikepoorerpopu1.ationswhofacerestrictionsdetoeconomic,geographica1.,andinfrastructura1.cha1.1.enges.Thewidespreaduseofprivatee1.ectricitysourcesacrossa1.1.groupsshowstheadaptabi1.ityofcommunitiesinseekinga1.ternativeso1.utionsamidstinsufficientpub1.icsupp1.y.However,thesystemicre1.ianceonprivatediese1.generatorsnoton1.y1.eadstoadependenceon1.essregu1.ated,expensive,andenvironmenta1.1.ydetrimenta1.options,buta1.soexacerbatesvu1.nerabi1.itiesbyimposingsignificantfinancia1.burdensona1.readystrugg1.ingfami1.ies.Additiona1.1.y,theemissionsfromthesegeneratorssignificant1.ycont11butetoairpo1.1.utionandanincreaseInairbornecarcinogens,exacerbatinghea1.thIssuessuchasasthmaanda1.1.ergiesamongthepopu1.ation(HumanRightsWatch,2023).Minima1.uptakeofso1.arsystemsacrossa1.1.househo1.dsindicatestheprohibitiveexpenseofthesere1.ative1.y,moresustainab1.eoptions.Fivepercentofpoorhouseho1.dsa1.socomp1.ete1.y1.ackaccesstoanyformofe1.ectricity.Figure2.11:A1.owershareofpoorhouseho1.dshaveaccesstomoreaffordab1.epub1.ice1.ectricitySource:Wor1.dBankstaffwtnatc¾using1.HS2022/2023forgrmr3tcsatAkkar,Bcvut,M,Womt1.ebanonandNorth1.ebanonon1.y.HEA1.THAccesstohea1.thcare,inc1.udingdrugsormedicinesandmedica1.servicesneededonarogurbasis,posessignificantcha1.1.engesforhouseho1.dsacrosseconomicgroups,withaffordabi1.itystandingoutasaPdmMyconcern.About58percentofnonpoorhouseho1.dswithat1.eastonememberneedingmedicineregu1.ar1.ycou1.dnotaccessthemconsistent1.y,whi1.ethisfigurewas80percentforprfami1.ies(Figure2.14).Simi1.ar1.y,52percentof11onprhouseho1.dswithat1.eastonememberrequiringregu1.armedica1.servicesdidnothaveconsistentaccess,with86percentofprhouseho1.dsfacingthesamecha1.1.enge.Poorfema1.e-headedfami1.ieswereat1.east8percentagepointsmore1.ike1.ythantheirma1.epeerstoencntersimi1.archa1.1.enges111accessingmedicineandmedica1.services.Figure2.14:Househo1.dsarefacingcha1.1.engesingettingregu1.araccesstomedicineandmedica1.services,butmoresothepoor No-poofhouseho1.dsPoorhouseho1.dsPr1.ebanesehouseho1.dsPoorSyahouseho1.dsScarce：WOrWBank3fetwiesusingIHS2OZ22O23f<xgcwnorateserfA)Ckd1.Be*t.%kaa,Mnt1.ebanonandNoabIebenononty.Amonghouseho1.dsthatcou1.dnotregu1.ar1.yaccessmedicine,theinabi1.itytoaff