2022Q4欧盟委员会欧洲电力市场报告.docx

EuropeanCcmmisstonQuarterlyreportOnEuropeanelectricitymarketsWithfocusonpricedevelopmentsin2022MarketObservatoryforEnergyDGEnergyVolume15(issue4,coveringfourthquarterof2022)EnergyDISCLAIMER:ThisreportpreparedbytheMarketObservatoryforEnergyoftheEuropeanCommissionaimsatenhancingpublicaccesstoinformationaboutpricesofelectricityintheMemberStatesoftheEuropeanUnion.OurgoalistokeepthisInformationtimelyandaccurate.Iferrorsarebroughttoourattention,weWiUtrytocorrectthem.However,theCommissionacceptsnoresponsibilityOrliabilitywhatsoeverwithregardtotheinformationcontainedinthispublication.Copyrightnotice:Reproductionisauthorisedprovidedthesourceisacknowledged.©EuropeanCommission,2023Directorate-GeneralforEnergy,unitA4,MarketObservatoryforEnergy,2023CommissionEuropeenne,B-1049Bruxelles/EuropeseCommissie,B1049Brussel-BelgiumE-mail:ENER-MARKET-OBSERVATORY-QUARTERLY-REPORTSec.europa.euCONTENTHIGHLIGHTSOFTHEREPORT3IELECTRICITYMARKETFUNDAMENTALS41IDemandsidefactors412Supplysidefactors92EUROPEANWHOLESALEMARKETS14)1Europeanwholesaleelectricitymarketsandtheirinternationalcomparison.142.2Tradedvolumesandcrossborderflows271 FOCUSONDEVELOPMENTSINANNUALWHOLESALEPRICES33?IDay-ahedpriceconvergence33)Averageannualpricelevelsandvolatility344REGIONALWHOLESALEMARKETS3641CentralWesternEurope(Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,theNetherlands,Switzerland)3642BritishIsles(GB,Ireland)3841NorthernEurope(Denmark,Estonia,Finland,Latvia,Lithuania,Sweden,Norway)3944ApenninePeninsula(Italy,Malta)414SIberianPeninsula(SpainandPortugal)4246CentralEasternEurope(Czechia,Hungary,Poland,Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia)45d7South-EasternEurope(Bulgaria,Croatia,GreeceandSerbia)47SRETAILMARKETS4951RetailelectricitymarketsintheEU49GLOSSARY57Corrigendum:TheorisinalvcionofthereporthadincorrectfigureforGermanandFrenchEVle11page6.Thihatfowbeencorrected.HIGHLIGHTSOFTHEREPORT Thefourthquarterof2022wasmarkedbydecreasingelectricityconsumption,duetodemanddestructionsupportedbyamildwinterwhichdelayedthestartoftheheatingseasonintheEU.Consequently,sustainedbyhighstoragelevels,gaspriceseasedcomparedwithsummerlevels,helpingtoalleviatewholesaleelectricityprices.However,nucleargenerationremainedlow,puttingupwardpressuretoatightmarket,despiteanincreaseinavailabilitythroughoutQ42022.Thehigher-than-usualtemperaturesduringtherestofthewinterandstoragelevelssupportedaconsiderablefallinthepriceofgas(albeitathigherthanhistoricallevels)and,consequently,ofelectricityinthefollowingmonthsof2023. WholesaleelectricitypricesinEuropeanmarketsbrokeseveralrecordshighduring2022,withanunprecedentedpeakinAugust.TheRussianwarinUkraineaffectedenergymarketsresultinginsubstantialincreasesinprices,volatilityanduncertaintyonenergysupply.Recordhighgasprices,lownuclearfleetavailabilityandreducedhydrooutputduetoadrought,increasedthepressureonthealreadytightmarket.In2022,theEuropeanPowerBenchmarkaveraged230/MWh,121%higherthanin2021.Italyhadthehighestbaseloadelectricityprices(304/MWhonaverage)in20227followedbytheMalta(294/MWh),Greece(2791MWh)andFrance(275fllMWh). WholesaleelectricitypricesinQ42022werelowerthaninthepreviousquarter(Q32022),duetoimprovedfundamentalsinthegasmarket.Lowerdemandandmildweathersupportedlowerprices,butreducednuclearpowergeneration,continuedtoputupwardpressureonwholesaleelectricitymarkets.Thelargestyear-on-yearpriceincreasesinMemberStateswereregisteredinFrance(+342%),Austria(312%),andSlovakia(+310%).PricesinFrancewereinfluencedbythelownuclearoutputandthereversalofnetexportpowerflowsinthecontextofunprecedentedhighgasprices.TheEuropeanPowerBenchmarkwas187/MWhonaverageinQ42022,4%loweronyearlybasis.PricesroseinnineteenmarketsinEurope.ThehighestpricesduringthequarterwererecordedinGreeceandItaly(246and245CMWhtrespectively)andwere11%and1%higherthaninQ42021.ThelowestquarterlyaveragepricesduringQ42022wererecordedininSpainandPortugalat113/MWh,46%lowerthaninQ42021. ElectricityconsumptionintheEUfell(-9%)comparedwithlastyear'slevelsinQ42022,duetotheimpactoftheenergycrisis,supportedbyamildwinter.Moreover,in2022,consumptionacrosstheEUfellby3%comparedwith2021,followingtheimpactofhighelectricitypricesandthesubsequentindustrialdemandreduction. Theshareofrenewablesincreasedto39%in2022(from38%in2021),whileshareoffossilfuelsroseto38%(from36%in2021).In2022,solargenerationroseby26%(+41TWh),onshorewindincreasedby10%(+33TWh)andoffshorewindclimbedby4%(+2TWh),reflectingthelevelofdevelopmentofnewcapacityforthesetechnologies.Thecombinedsolarandwindgenerationincreasedtheiroutputby14%in2022(+76TWh).However,subduedyearlyhydrogenerationfellby17%(-61TWh)onadroughtthataffectedEurope.NucleargenerationremainedunderpressureduetooutagesanddelayedscheduledmaintenanceinFrance.NuclearoutputfeHby17%(-118TWh)in2022. Fossilfuelgenerationroseby3%(+24TWh)in2022,supportedbyreducednuclearandhydrogeneration.Intotal,coal-firedgenerationincreasedby6%(+24TWh),whereaslessC02-intensivegasgenerationroseslightlybylessthan1%(+1TWh).Risinggaspricesmadegas-firedpowergenerationlesseconomicallyfavourablecomparedtocoal-firedgeneration.Basedonpreliminaryestimates,the2022carbonfootprintoftheEUpowersectorroseby4%comparedwith2021.However,despitethisincrease,thecarbonftprintQ42022isestimatedtohavedecreasedby9%,duetoreduceddemandandlowerfossilfuelgeneration. AnewrecordofinstalledrenewablecapacitywasreachedintheEUin2022,as57GWofsolarandwindcapacitywereaddedtothesystem-resultinginanincreaseof16%onayearlybasis.Additionalinstalledcapacitysupportedhigherlevelsofrenewablesgenerationin2022. Carbonpricesregistered80/tC02in2022,whichwasa50%increasefromthepricesrecordedin2021.HighEuropeanUnionAllowances(EUA)pricesin2022,werestillinsufficienttosupportcoal-to-gasfuelswitchinginpowergeneration,duetoexceptionallyhighgaspricesthroughmostoftheyear. Highwholesaleelectricitypricesresultedinrisingconsumerbillsforhouseholdsin2022,impactingtheindustrysectoraswell.TheeaseinwholesalepricesregisteredinQ42022alleviatedthepressureonretailprices,whilefurtherreductioncouldbeexpectedaspricesfellSubstantiallyduringthefollowingmonthsof2023.RetailelectricitypricesforhouseholdcostumersinEUcapitalcitieswereupby17%inFebruary2023,comparedwiththesamemonthin2022.However,retailpricesinFebruaryregisteredafallforthefourthconsecutivemonth,asaresultoflowerwholesaleprices. Morethan695,0newEVswereregisteredintheEUinQ42022,anincreaseof30%incomparisonwithsamequarterin2021.Demandforelectricallyvehicles(EVs)positionedQ42022asthehighestquarterlyfigureonrecord.Q42022numberstranslatedintoa28%ofmarketshare,lowerthanChina(35%),butmorethanthreetimeshigherthanintheUnitedStates(8%).Electricitymarketfundamentalsi1Demandsidefactors Figure1showstheGDPannualgrowthintheEuropeanUnion.AccordingtotheMarch2022Eurostatestimate,seasonallyadjustedGDPincreasedby1.7%year-on-yearintheEUbetweenOctoberandDecember2022(after+2.6%intheEUinQ32022).Moreover,GDPintheEUincreasedby3.5%in2022,after5.4%in2021.Theeconomicrecoveryregisteredinthefirsthalfof2022sloweddowninthesecondhalfoftheyear,amidhighenergypressureandelevatedinflation(10.4%ofEUannualinflationinDecember2022,energywasresponsibleforcontributing2.79percentagepointstothisfigure).Moreover,ashighelectricitypricespromptedthedecreaseduseofelectricityinenergy-intensivesectors,theincreaseineconomicactivitydidnotreallytranslateinhigherelectricityconsumptionintheEU.ComparedwithQ42021,annualgrowthregisteredpositivefiguresin23of27MemberStates.ThehighestannualrateswerereportedinIreland(+13.1%),followedbyGreece(+5.2%)andRomania(+4.7%),Thehighestyear-on-yeardecreaseswereobservedinEstonia(-4.4%)andLuxembourg(-2.2%).FigureI-EUGDPannualchange(%)20%Ql I Q2 I Q3 I Q4 I Ql I Q2 I Q3 I Q4 I Ql I Q2 I Q3 I Q4 I Ql I Q2 I Q3 I Q4 201920202021202215%10%5%O5%-10%-15%-20%Source：Euroat AccordingtoEurostat,theelectricityconsumptionintheEUdropped8.7%comparedwithlastyear'slevelsinQ42022,followingtheimpactofhighelectricitypricesandthesubsequentindustrialdemandreduction.Demandlevelsforthefourthquarterof2022werealsowellbelowthe2017-2019range,registeringthelowestvalueinOctober(evenlowerthaninOctober2020)andthehighestinDecember(stillbelowDecember2020).Figure 2 - Monthly EU electricity consumption2017-2019 dng9_2O2D2022Source:Eurostat Figure3sumsupchangesinelectricityconsumptionover2022,comparedto2021.EUelectricityconsumptionfellduetotheunprecedentedelectricitypricesin2022,whichsupportedadecreaseinhouseholdenergydemandandarelevantdemanddestructionfromindustries.Overall,largeindustrialconsumers,responsibleforthebiggestportionofthedemand,struggledwithhighenergyprices,resultinginaconsiderabledecreaseoftheconsumption.Twenty-threeMemberStatesregistereddecreasesinconsumption,thebiggestofwhichoccurredinSlovakia(-9%),Romania(-8%)andGreece(-7%).Bycontrast,Malta(+8%)andPortugal(+4%)registeredincreaseslinkedtocoolingneedsduetowarmweatherinsummer.Comparedwith2021,EU-wideconsumptionfellby3%,Figure3-Annualchangesinelectricityconsumptionin2022byMemberStateSource:Eurotiat Figure4sumsupchangesinelectricityconsumptionoverthefourthquarterof2022,comparedtoQ42021.EUaveragehideswidedifferencesofdevelopmentsinindividualMemberStatesduringthereferencequarter.OnlytwoMemberStatessawanincreaseinconsumptionyear-on-year,registeringmoderategrowsinIreland(+4%)andMalta(+2%).Inaddition,twenty-fiveMemberStatesregisteredadropinconsumption,ledbySlovakia(-18%),Romania(-13%),FranceandBelgium(-12%),Ofthemajoreconomies,powerconsumptionalsowentdowninGermany(-9%)andintheNetherlands(-7%),Themild2022/2023wintercontributedaswelltoadecreaseindemand(seeFigure5).Figure4-AnnualchangesinelectricityconsumptioninQ42021andQ42022byMemberState Figure5illustratesthemonthlydeviationofactualColdDegreeDays(CDDs)andHeatingDegreeDays(HDDs)fromthelong-termaverage(aperiodbetween1979andthelastcalendaryearcompleted)inQ42022.EU-wide,thereferencequarterwaswarmerthanthehistoricalrange,registering139HDDsbelowthelong-termaverage(concentratedmainlyinOctober).Ingeneral,temperaturesduringQ42022wereapproximately1.5oChigherthanusual,mainlyduetowarmerweatherinOctober.PracticallyallMSexperiencedwarmer-than-sualweatherconditions,withtheexceptionofNordicandBalticCountriesinDecember,Wherecoldtemperatureswereregistered.Duringthereferencequarter,allthreemonthsregisteredwarmer-than-averagetemperatures.Inparticular,Octoberhadthehighestnumberofdeviationsfromtheaveragelevels.Overall,amongotherrelevantfactors,themildweatherhelpedkeepingtheenergypricesituationfromworseningduringthefourthquarterof2022.Figure5-Deviationofactualheatingdaysfromthelong-termaverageinOctober-December2022100-250EU27ATBEBGCHCYCZDEDKEEELESFlFRHRHUIEITLTLULVMTNLNOPLPTROSESISKUKHDDsOct22HDDsNov-22HDDsDec-22Source:JRC.Thecoldertheweather,thehigherthenumberofHDD.Thehottertheweather,thehigherthenumbetofCDD Figure6showsthatalmost695,000newEVswereregisteredintheEUinQ42022(+56%comparedwithQ32022and+30%year-on-year).Thisisthehighestquarterlyfigureonrecordandtranslatesintoa28%marketshare;lowerthanChina(35%),butmorethanthreetimeshigherthanintheUnitedStates(8%).Thebatteryelectricvehiclessegmentcontinuedtogrow(+31%year-on-yearabove406,000)togetherwithanincreaseinthedemandforplug-inhybridvehicles(+29%year-on-yeartoalmost287,000)forthefirsttimesinceQ32021.Hybridelectricvehicles(notchargeable)salesamountedto545,000,lowerthantheEVcategory,butstillregisteringanincreaseof22%comparedwithQ42021.EUproposalslinkedtoGreenDealinitiativesandnationalpoliciescontinuetosupporttheadoptionofEVsinEurope. ThehighestEVpenetrationwasobservedinSwedenforanotherconsecutivequarter,withanoutstandingrecordof67%,thankstothesupportofaclimatebonusforbattery-poweredelectricvehicles(BEV)ownersinSwedenandnewzero-emissioncarsandlighttrucks.FromJanuary2023,newCO2limitsfortheclimatebonusareinplace,increasingtheemissionsrequirementtooptforthisbonus.Inaddition,inDenmark,almosthalfofthepassengercarssoldcouldbeplugged(48%),whileinFinland46%oftheQ42022carsaleswereEVs1followedbyGermany(44%).Germanyretainedthepositionofthelargestindividualmarket(closeto345,000EVsalesinQ42022)thankstoitsgenerousincentiveprogramme,whichsince2020anduntiltheendof2022,offeredupto9,OOOindirectpurchasebonuses.AfterGermany,numbersinEVswerealsosupportedbyFrance,wheresalesamountedtomorethan100,000newEVsinthereferencequarter.Figure6-Electricallychargeablepassengervehicle(EV)salesinselectedcountriesinQ42022BitteryelectricvehiclesHftjg>inhybridsBCVshareofnewpassengercarregistrations(rhs)Source:ACEArCPCA1BloombergNEF Figure7showshowtherapidexpansionofelectricvehiclesinEuropeunfoldedin2021andcontinuedin2022.PolicysupportandadditionalstimulusmeasureshavecontributedtotheincreaseinEVnumbers.AsthenumberofEVsonEuropeanroadsisexpectedtocontinuegrowingfastintheyearsahead,sowillitsimpactonelectricitydemandandnetworkload.Inaddition,theincreaseindemandandfurtherConstraintsintheSupplychainofbatteriesriskslowingtherolloutofEVsinthenearfuture.Figure7QuarterlyEVsalesintheEUSource:ACEA Figure8showsthedeclineofsalesofdieselcars,whichsawtheirmarketsharefallto14%inQ42022,from17%inQ42021.Petrolcarsalesexperiencedafallintheirshareto33%inQ42022,from36%inthefourthquarterofthepreviousyear.Ontheotherhand,theshareofnewHybridelectricvehicles(HEV)inthemarketincreasedfrom20%inQ42021,to22%inQ42022.TheshareofnewEVshasalsorisenyear-on-year(from25%inQ42021to28%inQ42022).Figure8-EvolutionofquarterlydrivetrainsharesintheEUBEVPHEVBHEVOtherAPVPetrolIDieseISource:ACEA Figure9showstheevoludonofHeatpumpssalesacrossEuropereportedbytheEuropeanHeatPumpAssociation(EHPA),breakingarecordofsalesofaround3millionnewunitssoldin16marketsinEuropein2022.Heatpumpsarecommonlyusedforheating,hotwaterandeveninsomecases,forcooling.Heatpumpsenabletheuseofrenewables(ambientheat)intheheatingsectorandaremoreefficientthanboilers.REPowerEUplanseekstodoubletheannualpaceofdeployment,mainlyreplacinggasboilersinanadditional10millionbuildingsoverthenextfiveyears,and30millionby2030. Intotal,thecurrentheatpumpstockamountedtoalmost20millioninEurope,bytheendof2022.Annualsalesgrewaround38%in2022.200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022ales(millionsofunits)Stock(right-handside)Source:EHPA FigureIOshowsdetailedamounttoheatpumpsalesinselectedMemberStatesduring2022.Themainincreaseinsalesduring2022,comparedwith2021fwasregisteredPoland(+100%),Czechia(+99%)andtheNetherland(+80%).Inabsoluteterms,thelargestnumberofsaleswereseeninItaly(over500thousandnewheatpumpunits),FranceandGermany.Figure10-SalesofHeatPumpsin2022inselectedMemberStatesSource:EHPA1 )Supplysidefactors Figure11reportsondevelopmentsinEuropeancoalandgasprices.In2022bothgasandcoalmarketsremainedSubjecttovolatilityinthespotmarket1TheRussianinvasioninUkraineandrelatedinternationalsanctions(includingreluctancefromcompaniestopurchaseRussianfossilfuels)affectedalreadytightenergymarketsresultinginsubstantialincreasesinpr