CFA一级强化段培训项目：经济学（标准版）.docx

CFA-级培训项讲师:Cherie吵3trgBYMPrefgio¾5TopicWeightingsinCFALevelISessionNO.ContentWeightingsStudySession1EthicalandProfessionalStandards15-20StudySession2-3QuantitativeMethods8-12StudySession4-5Economics8-12StudySession6-9FinancialReportingandAnalysis13-17StudySession10-11CorporateFinance8-12StudySession12-13EquityInvestments10-12StudySession14-15FixedIncome10-12StudySession16Derivatives5-8StudySession17AlternativeInvestments5-8StudySession18-19PortfolioManagement5-8三亚创新借值(S) FrameworkEconomicsAR12TopicsinDemandandSupplyAnalysisAR13TheFirmandMarketStructuresAR14AggregateOutput,Prices,andEconomicGrowthAR15UnderstandBusinessCyclesAR16MonetaryandFiscalPolicyAR17InternationalTradeandCapitalFlowsAR18CurrencyExchangeRatesTopicsinDemandandSupplyAnalysisFramework1.2.DemandandSupplyElasticity3.SubstitutionandIncomeEffects4.Profit5.Product6.Revenue7.Cost8.ProfitMaximization9.BreakevenPointandShutdownPoint10.EconomiesandDiseconomiesofscale1741406(2)1506(1)1512(1)16061912(1)1.1DemandandSupplyDemandfunction:Qgas=1234-15PgasInverseDemandfunction:Pgas=8.23-0.667QgasQ(gallons)Supplyfunction:Qtables=一426+1.5PtableSInversesupplyfunction:PtabIeS=284+0.667QasQ(tables)"7-13o'140615121606(1)16121906(1).1.2MarketEquilibriumAEquilibriumpriceandtheequilibriumquantityWhenhaveamarketsupplyandmarketdemandcurveforagood,Wecansolveforthepriceatwhichthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded.Wedefinethisastheequilibriumpriceandtheequilibriumquantity.E:marketequilibrium.Attheprice,thequantityofsupply=thequantityofdemand.!页取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888s1606(1)1.3DemandandSupplyCurves>Movementsalongdemandandsupplycurves.ChangesinquantitydemandedorsuppliedofproductXcausedbychangesinmarketpriceoftheproductX.>Shiftsindemandandsupplycurves.ChangesinquantitydemandedorsuppliedofproductXcausedbyotherindependentvariablesotherthanthechangesinmarketpricetheproductX.，Forexample:Achangeoftheincome;Achangeofthepriceforsubstitutegoodsorcomplementarygoods.1412(1)1512(1)2012(1)1.4ConsumerSurplus>ThedifferencebetweenthetotalvaluetoconsumersoftheunitsofagoodthattheybuyandthetotalamounttheymustpayforthoseunitsiscalledConSUmersurplus.2.ElasticityPrice elasticity ofdemandElasticityCross elasticity ofdemandOther elasticity ofdemandIncomeelasticityofdemand1706(1)1906(1)2012(1)*2.1.1PriceElasticityofDemandADefinitionAmeasureOfhowSenSitiVeChaneleSinquantitydemandedtoachangeinprice,anditisexpressedastheratioofpercentagechangesineachvariableThepriceelasticityofdemand:Adwhere:%Ad d%P -陷Y竺Percent change =4change in value ending value - beginning valueaverage value / ending VaIUe +beginning ValUe1406(1)1906(1)2.1.2PriceElasticityofDemand>PriceelasticityWhenelasticity=l:demandissaidtobeunitelastic,orunitaryelastic.Whenelasticity>1,thedemandissaidtobeelastic.Whenelasticity<1,thedemandissaidtobeinelastic.Perfectlyelastic/Demandcurveishorizontalatsomegivenprice.Itimpliesthatevenaminutepriceincreasewillreducedemandtozero.Perfectlyinelastic/Demandcurveisvertical,quantitydemandedisnotsensitivetopriceatall.1406(1)1512(1)1606(1)1712(1)2.1.3PriceElasticityofDemand/Price(三)8765432(a)High 日asticityElasticity = - 2.6(b) Unitary Elasticity . Elasticity = -1(c) InelasticityPrice decreasingJ Price increasingElasticity = - 0.21020 30 405060 7080 Quantity2.1.4FactorsthatInfluencetheElasticityofDemand>AvailabilityofsubstitutesIfthereareClOSeSUbStitUteSforthegood,thenifitspricerisesevenslightly,aConsumerwouldtendswitchtothelesscostlysubstitute.ATherelativeamountofincomespentonthegood.IfconsumerstendtospendaVerVSmallPOrtiOnCIftheirbudqetonagood,theirdemandtendstobelesselasticthaniftheyspendaverylargepartoftheirincome.ATimeperiodsincethepricechangeFormostgoodsandservices,theIonCI-Iundemandismuchmoreelasticthantheshort-rundemand.领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888s1506(1)1712(1)180618121912(1)2.2Cross-PriceElasticityofDemandACross-priceelasticity:ItmeasureshowsensitivethedemandforgoodXistochangesinthePriCeOfSOmeOthergood,Y,holdingallotherthingsconstant.与%PIftwogoods,XandY,haspositivecross-priceelasticity,thegoodsXandYarereferredtoassubstitutes.，Example:penandpencil.Iftwogoods,XandY,hasnegativecross-priceelasticity,thegoodsXandYarereferredtoascomplements./Example:pencilanderaser.1606(1)2012(1)2.3IncomeElasticityofDemandAIncomeelasticityofdemandisdefinedasthepercentagechangeinquantitydemanded(%(¾)dividedbythePecentaqeChangeinincome(%4I).holdingallOtherthingsconstant,asshown:_%A0：%>Positiveincomeelasticitymeansthatasincomerises,thedemandforthegoodalsorises.Goodswithpositiveincomeelasticityarecalled"normalgoods"./Luxuries:highpositiveelasticity(>1)./Necessities:normalbuthavelowerelasticity(between0and1).>Negativeincomeelasticitymeansthatasincomerises,thedemandforthegooddecreases.Goodswithnegativeincomeelasticityarecalled"inferior"goods./Rice,potatoes,orlessexpensivecutsofmeat.1412(1)1506(1)1512(1)1606(1)1706(1)1712190619122012(2)3.1NormalandInferiorGoodsThesubstitutioneffectforgoodswillalwaysbepositive.Achangeinthepriceofagoodwillalwaysbeinthedirectionofbuyingmoreatalowerpriceorlessatahigherprice.Theincomeeffectforgoodsdependsonthenatureofthegoods.Fornormalgood,itsincomeeffectispositive,andtheincomeeffectreinforcestheSUbStitUtioneffect,bothleadingtoanegativelyslopeddemandcurve.Forinferiorgood,itsincomeeffectisnegative,andtheincomeeffectandthesubstitutioneffectworkinoppositedirections./Theincomeeffecttendst。mitigatetheSUbStitUtiOneffect.1412(1)1506(1)1512(1)1606(1)3.2GiffenGoodsandVeblenGoods>Giffengoods:Incomeeffect(inferiorgoods)>SubstitutioneffectDemandcurvehaspositiveslope>Veblengoods(Conspicuousgoods):Consumercannottrulyvalueagooduntilthepriceisknown.Priceisusedbytheconsumertosignalthestatusinthesociety.Highprice->highValUe->highdemandquantity(extremely)/Haveapositivelyslopeddemandcurve(eg:luxuryautomobileorveryexpensivepieceofjewelry)firstly./BUtWhenPriCeincreases,theSloPemaybenegative,>TWoimportantdistinctionsbetweenGiffengoodsandVeblengoods.First,Giffengoodsareinferiorgoods(negativeincomeeffect),whileVeblengoodscertainlyarenot.Second,theexistenceofGiffengoodsistheoreticallysupportedbyourrulesofconsumerchoice,whiletheexistenceofVeblengoodsisnot.Accounting profitdosti JprofitEcono mic cost (0)AccountingprofitAccountingprofit二totalrevenuertotalaccounting(explicit)costEeonomicprofit=accountingprofit!mlicitopportunitycostsEconomicprofit=totalrevenuetotaleconomiccostsNormalprofitistheaccountingprofitthatmakeseconomicprofitzero.Accountingprofit=economicprofit+normalPrOfit亏业.创新.t笆值5.TotalfAverage,MarginalProductsATotalproduct(TP):sumoftheoutputfromallinputsduringatimeperiod;usuallyillustratedasthetotaloutput(Q)usinglaborquantity(L)AAverageproduct(AP):totalproductdividedbythequantityofagiveninput;measuredastotalproductdividedbythenumberofworkerhoursusedatthatoutputlevel(QL)AMarginalproduct(MP):theamountofadditionaloutputresultingfromusingonemoreunitofinputassumingotherinputsarefixed;measuredbytakingthedifferenceintotalproductanddividingbythechangeinthequantityoflabor(QL).领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888sLawofDiminishingReturnsAThelawofdiminishingmarginalreturnsstatesthatasmoreandmoreresources(suchaslabor)aredevotedtoaproductionprocess,theyincreaseoutputbutataneverdecreasingrate.6.TotalfAverage,andMarginalRevenue>Totalrevenue(TR)foranyfirmthatchargesasinglepricetoallcustomersiscalculatedaspricemultipliedbyquantitysold,OrTR=EP*Q.>Averagerevenue(AR)isequaltototalrevenuedividedbythequantitysold,AR=TRQ.AMarginalrevenue(MR)istheincreaseintotalrevenuefromsellingonemoreunitofagoodorservice.>UnderperfectcompetitionTheindividualfirmisapricetaker.Itmusttakethemarketpriceofitsoutputasgiven,soitfacesaperfectlyelastic,horizontaldemandcurve.Thefirm,saveragerevenue(AR),orrevenueperunit,isalsoequaltopriceperunitMR=Price=ARAUnderimperfectcompetitionFirmthatfacesanegativelyslopeddemandcurveispricesearchers.Totalrevenue(TR)ismaximizedwhenMR=O.TherelationshipbetweenMR,Randpriceelasticityofdemand:MR=Pl-lEp7.LongRunandShortRun>Longterm&shorttermTheshortterm/runisdefinedasatimeperiodforwhichquantitiesofsomeresourcesarefixed,suchasbuildings、technologyandequipment.Thetechnologyofproductionisfixedintheshortrunandisaconstraintonafirm'sabilitytoincreaseproduction.Typically,economiststreatIaborandrawmaterialsasVariableintheShortrun,holdingplantsize,capitalequipment,andtechnologyconstant.AllOfthesefactorsbecomeVariableintheIOngrun.Cost>Totalcost=totalfixedcost+totalvariablecostAMarginalcost=changeintotalcost/changeinoutputAAveragefixedcost=totalfixedcost/output>Averagevariablecost=totalvariablecost/outputAAveragecost=totalcost/output=AFC+AVC1806(1)Total,Average,Marginal,Fixed,VariablecostsAverageandMarginalCostsQAFCslopesdownward.MCdeclinesinitially,thenincreases.MCintersectsAVCandATCattheirminimumpoints.1412(1)1706(1)1812(1)1906(1)8.ProfitMaximizationAProfitmaximizationOccurswhenThedifferencebetweentotalrevenue(TR)andtotalcosts(TC)isthegreatest;Marginalrevenue(MR)equalsmarginalcost(MC);(MR=MC)Therevenuevalueoftheoutputfromthelastunitofinputemployedequalsthecostofemployingthatinputunit./领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebaju888s1612(1)1706(1)1712(1)1812(1)1906(1)9.BreakevenPointandShutdownPointAUnderPerfeCtComPetitionRevenue-CostRelationshipShort-RunDecisionLong-RunDecisionAR>ATCStayinmarketStayinmarketAR=ATCBreakevenpointAVC<AR<ATCStayinmarketExitmarketAR=AVCShutdownpointAR<AVCShutdownproductiontozeroExitmarket>UnderimperfectcompetitionRevenue-CostRelationshipShort-RunDecisionLong-RunDecisionTR>TCStayinmarketStayinmarketTVC<TR<TCStayinmarketExitmarketTR<TVCShutdownproductiontozeroExitmarket1412(1)1706(1)1912(1)10.EconomiesofScaleandDiseconomiesofScale>EconomieoofSCaleoccursifcostperunitofproductionfallsasinputincreases,andtheslopeofLRACisnegative.ADiseconomiesOfSCaleOCCUrSifcostperunitrisesasinputincreases,andtheslopeofLRACispositive.TheFirmandMarketStructuresFramework1.IdentificationofMarketStructure2.PerfectCompetition3.MonopolisticCompetition4.OligopolyKinkeddemandcurvemodelNashequilibriummodelStackelbergdominantfirmmodel5.Monopoly6.ConcentrationMeasures140614121506(1)151216121606(1)1706(1)18061906(1)1.MarketStructureTypeNumberoffirmsDegreeofdifferenceofproductsDifficultytoenterorleavePricingPowerofFirmTheexampleinourlifePerfectcompetitionManyHomogeneous/StandardizedVerylowNoneSomeagriculturalproductsMonopolisticcompetitionManyDifferentiatedlowSomeSomeretailproductsOligopolyFewHomogeneous/StandardizedHighSomeorConsiderableSteel,automobile,oilPuremonopolyOneUniqueProductVeryhighConsiderablePublicsectors17061712(1)18061812(1)1906(1)1912(3)2012(1).2.PerfectCompetitionAApricetakerisafirmthatcannotinfluencethemarketpriceandthatsetsitsownpriceatthemarketprice.AIndividualfirm,ademandscheduleisPerfeCtIyelastic(horizontal,Price=Demand=MarginalRevenue=Averagerevenue).>Perfectlycompetitionfirm,sshort-runequilibriumProfitmax:MR=MCMR=P=AR=D(pricetaker)AIndividualfirm,slong-runequilibriumunderperfectcompetitionInthelong-run,economicprofitwillattractotherentrepreneurstothemarket÷moreoutputThelong-run,firmsoperateatthepointwhereMC=minimumATCSofirmsoperateatthepointP=MR=MC=ATC,nofirmsearnexcessProfit.领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888s.3.MonopolisticCompetition>Thefollowingmarketandproductfeaturesdefinemonopolisticcompetition:Firmsinmonopolisticcompetitionhashighlyelasticitybecauseeachcompetingproductsareclosesubstitutes.Firmshaveadownward-slopingdemandcurves>ProductdevelopmentandmarketingInnovationandproductdevelopmentBrandnamesAdvertising4OligopolyAOligopolyisaformofmarketcompetitioncharacterizedbyAsmallnumberofsellersInterdependenceamongcompetitorsLargeeconomiesofscaleSignificantbarrierstoentryEithersimilarordifferentiatedproductsAComparedtomonopolisticcompetition,anoligopolymarketincludesfewerfirms,hashigherbarrierstoentry,anditsproductsarelesselastic.>Incontrasttoamonopolist,oligopoliesarehighlydependentupontheactionsoftheirrivalswhenmakingbusinessdecisions.AFourmodelsofoligopolyKinkeddemandcurvemodelCournotduopolymodelNashequilibriummodel(prisoner,sdilemma)Stackelbergdominantfirmmodel15121606(1)1806(1)2012(1)4.1KinkedDemandCurveModel*4.2NashEquilibriumModel>Ingametheory(thesetoftoolsthatdecisionmakersusetoconsiderresponsesbyrivaldecisionmakers),theNashequilibriumispresentwhentwoormoreparticipantsinanon-cooperativegamehavenoincentivetodeviatefromtheirrespectiveequilibriumstrategiesaftertheyhaveconsideredandanticipatedtheiropponentsrationalchoicesorstrategies.ATheassumptionismadethateachparticipatingfirmdoesthebestitcan,giventhereactionsofitsrivals.Thefirmsintheoligopolymarkethaveinterdependentactions.Theactionsarenon-cooperative,witheachfirmmakingdecisionsthatmaximizeitsownprofits.Thefirmsdonotcolludeinanefforttomaximizejointprofits.Theequilibriumisreachedwhenallfirmsaredoingthebesttheycan,giventheactionsoftheirrivals.2012(1)NashEquilibriumModel>Prisoners,DilemmaPrisonerYissilentPrisonerYconfessesPrisonerXissilentXgets5monthsYgets5monthsXgets8yearsYgoesfreePrisonerXconfessesXgoesfreeYgets8yearsXgets3yearsYgets3years*4.3DominantFirmModel>DominantfirmmodelAsinglefirmthatgenerallyhave40%orgreatermarketshare./Greatercapacity;/Greatercustomerloyalty.ThedominantfirmisthepricemakerTheotherfirmsinthemarketfollowthepricingpatternofthedominantfirm.>IftheothercompaniesinthemarketattemptstogainmarketsharebyIindefcuttinqthePriCesetbythedominantfirm,themarketShareOfthedominantfirmWillincrease.>Overtime,thedominantCOmPany'g11arkeShanetsdeersssprofitattractentrybyothercompanies.A领取视频及更多资料加微信：XUebajUn888s1506(1)1712(1)5.1MonopolyThemonopolist:sdemandscheduleistheaggregatedemandfortheproductintherelevantmarketTheslopeofthedemandcurveisnegativeandthereforedownwardslopingTheprofit-maximizinglevelcfoutputoccurswheremarginalrevenueequalsmarginaLs1,MR=MCThemonopolistssearchtorealizethemaximumprofit,insteadofthemaximumpricesTomaximizeitstotalPrOmonopolistsWiiIPrCduCeIeSSproduelandChargehigherPriCeorilsPrCdUC1,comparedtotheperfectcompetitionmarketTherelationshipbetweenMRandpriceelasticityEisMR=P1-lEpTypesofbarriersLegalbarrierstoentrycre