可持续发展与国际关系研究所-大型新兴经济体深度脱碳的政策教训（英）-2021.11-86正式版.docx

0DDECARBONlZATlOh_DAYXWAVC POLICYLESSONS ONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Brazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica AninternationalreportcoordinatedbytheDeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative NOVEMBER2021 IDDRI Copyright2021IDDRI TheInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRelations(IDDRI)encouragesthereproductionandpubliccommunicationofitscopyrightmaterials,withpropercredit(bibliographicalreferenceand/orcorrespondingURL),forpersonal,corporateorpublicpolicyresearch,oreducationalpurposes.However,IDDRscopyrightedmaterialsarenotformmercialuseordissemination(printorelectronic).Unlessexpresslystatedotherwise,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethoseofthevariousauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofIDDRsboard.Citation DDP(2021).Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies.DeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative-IDDRI.Paris.Thereportisavailableonline:https:ddpinitiative.org/CategOrV/publication/Contact HenriWaisman,heni.waismaniddri.ora Financialsupportfrom ThereportPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesisfinanciallysupportedbytheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)oftheGermanFederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)aspartoftheClimateActionAfterParisproject(nr.18_l_326).Production:IDDRI.Editing:MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,LolaVallejo,HenriWaisman.Layout:IvanPharabod.POLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Introduction 3 Brazil:5 Introduction 5 Part 1:Scenarioresults 7 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 18 Annex 23 India:25 Introduction 25 Part 1:Scenarioresults 27 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 32 Indonesia:39 Part 1:Scenarioresults 40 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 51 SouthAfrica:55 Introduction 55 Part 1:Scenarioresults 56 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 62Thisreporthasbeenauthoredbyaconsortiumofindependentexpertsactingintheirpersonalcapacitiesandwhohavenotbeennominatedbytheirrespectivegovernments.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotreflecttheviewsofanygovernmentororganization.Introduction MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,HiltonTrollip1HenriWaisman.Theworldhasagreedtopreventtheirreversibledamagestohumanandnaturalecosystemscausedbyanthropogenicglobalwarmingbylimitingtheriseofglobaltemperaturetowellbelow2andtopursueeffortstolimititto1.5.Toimplementthis,theParisAgreementgroundsthisgoalintermsofglobalemissiontrajectoriesandtheneedtoembedthemintheinthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.Subsequentlyscience(IPCCSR1.5)furtherspecifiesthatglobalneutralityconcerningcarbondioxidespecificallyshouldhappenbetween2050(for1,5)and2075(for2).Italsopointsoutthenecessityofmindingnon-CO2forcerstomaintaintheglobalobjective.Toreachthisscaleofemissionreductions,thescientificassessmentconcludesthatrapidandfar-reachingtransformations,farbeyondwhathasbeenobservedinthepast,arerequiredinallcomponentsoftheeconomicsystem,i.e.inenergy,urbanandinfrastructure,industryandlandandecosystems.Suchdrastictransitionsinturnrequireprofoundchangesintechnologiesbutalsoinsocial,economic,institutionalandpolicycondi-tions.Scienceshowsthatthechangesrequiredbyclimateobjectivescanbecompatiblewithbroadersustainabledevelopmentobjectivesifactionisimple-mentedwithoutdelay,isguidedbystrategicvisionsoftransformationsinformingthedesignofwell-designedpolicypackagesandthecooperationamongactorsandisenabledbyeffectiveinternationalcooperation.Withtheseframeworknditionsathand,countriesaresettoexplorenationalpathwaystoexplainhowtherapidandfar-reachingtransitionsrequiredgloballycanhappenineachcountryntext.Nationaldeepdecarbonisationoflargeemergingeconomieshasbeenlargelyexploredfromatech-no-economicperspective,resultinginviablesetsoflong-termpathwaysunderanumberofconditions.Existinganalysisshowsthatthenationaltransitioncanmostlybeeninitiatedusingexistingtechnologiesandmarketinstrumentsatlowandoftennetnegativefinancialstandthat,usually,thesetransformationscanhaveassociatedlargeoverallneteconomicbene-fitswhenexternaleconomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsarefactoredin.However,similartomostpartsoftheworld,mostmajornecessarydecarboni-sationtransformationsareeithernothappeningorhappeningataslowerpacethannecessary.Thisgapbetweenexistingevidenceandconcreteactionhigh-lightsthatthecarbonneutraltransitionisnotonlyamatteroftechno-economicfeasibilitybutessentiallyaquestionofpoliticaleconomy.Actualimplemen-tationrequiresclarityaboutthechoicestobemadeinthetransition,abouttheconcretepoliciesandactionsthatcanbeenvisaged,aboutthosewhocanbewinnersandthosewhomayloseandthemeasuresadoptedtomanagethesocio-economiccostsofthetransition.Scientificassessmentsshouldthereforebeseenlessasaninstrumenttoillustratetransitionpathwaysinanormativemannerthanasawaytodeterminetheinclusivewhole-of-societyconversa-tionthatwouldberequiredtomakethetransitioneffectiveandacceptable.TheDDPmmunitybehindthisreporthascommit-tedtothisvisionoftheroleofscenarioanalysisinthepublicdebate.Thebodyofknowledgeemergingfromthiscommunityaimsatensuringthatthefeaturesofthetechno-enomicdeepdecarbonisationtransfor-mationsarecontextualizedinthediversityofcountrycircumstancesanddescribedwithsufficientdetailsandgranularitytoinformdecisionsrequiredtodrivethesetransformations.Keychallengestodate,whicharecriticaltoincreaseambitionandaccelerateaction,include:connectingthescenariosanalysisandthediversityofpoliciesandactionstoimplementationintherealworld;revealingthecriticalconditionsthatareoutsidethecontrolofnationalauthorities,whereinternationalcooperationmustplayarole,andensuringownershipoftheinsightsemergingfromthescenariosbyadiversityofactorstoempowertheminthepublicdebates.TheDDPapproachunderlyingthisreportsresearchisestablishedwiththesekeychallengesinmind.Itisfundamentallyacountry-drivenexploration,backcastingfromthemid-centuryemissionandsocio-eco-nomicobjectivestoinformtheshort-termdecisionswithinandacrosssystems.Sectoraldeepdivesallowforanin-depthinvestigationofalllevers,opportunitiesandchallengessuitedtoinformdomesticstake-holderdebateinhighlycomplicatedsectors,suchastransport,industry,oragriculture/land-use,whicharetraditionallyrepresentedpoorlyinexistinglong-termroadmaps.Thestakeholderengagementapproachtothedevelopmentofthescenariosandemanatingpolicyinsightsisanessentialmeansforthesescien-tificassessmentstoserveanactionagenda.ThisreportpresentsasynthesisoftheresultsoftheassessmentsconductedinBrazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica.Foreachofthecountrieschapters,PartIdescribesthemainfeaturesoftheeconomy-wideDeepDecarbonizationScenario(三)(DDS)1includingadescriptionofkeynational-scalesocio-economicaspectsandanexplicitcharacterisationoftheemis-sionobjectiveandtrajectory.Torealisethenecessarychangestogetontracktothispath,adescriptionoftheCurrentPolicyScenario(CPS)isalsopresented,includingadescriptionofthemainpoliciesandactionsconsidered.Scenarioresultsincludeanin-depthdescriptionatsectorlevelforthedeepdivesselectedbyeachuntry.PartIlofthecountrychaptersfocusesonkeypolicylessons,whichcanserveasdirectinputsintopolicyconversationsatthecountrylevel.Itincludesadescriptionofthemainsynergiesandtrade-offswithcountrynon-climateobjectives,prior-ityshort-termpoliciesandactions,withafocusonwhereshiftsfromcurrentpathsarecriticallyrequired,investmentspatternsandkeyinternationalenablersandacceleratorsofdomestictransitions.TheBrazilianNDChasaneconomy-widegoalof37%GHGemissionreduction,by2025and43%reductionby2030,comparedwith2005asthebaseyear.Brazilalsomadevoluntarycommitmentsofemissionreductionsin2009duringCOP15(Copenhagen)linkedtoitsNAMAs1correspondingtokeepemissionsbelowacapofroughly2GtC2eqin2020.Morerecently,theBrazilianPresidentannouncedattheClimateLeaderSummitorganizedbyUSPresidenton22April2021thecountryscommitmenttoreachclimateneutralityby2050.ThisstudysimulatestwoGHGemissionsscenariosinBraziluntil2050.Itprovidesaframeworkforananalysisofeconomy-wideandsectoralindicatorsofadecarbonizationpathwayalignedwiththegeneralobjectiveoftheParisAgreement(net-zeroGHGemissionsin2050).TheCurrentPoliciesScenario(CPS)followsthetrendofongo-ingmitigationactions.Itsemissionsareof1.65GtC2eqin2030,withnoincreaseinambitionbetween2030and2050.TheCPSnearlymeetsthecountrystargetfor2030underthenewfirstNDCbutisabovethefigure(1.4GtC2eq)ofarevisedtargetwhenthe2005baseyearemis-sionsareupdatedaccordingtothenew4thnationalemissionsinventory.TheDeepDecarbonizationScenario(DDS)reaches1.0GtC2qin2030,goingbeyondtheNDCtargetandfollowingaGHGemissionstrajectorycompatiblewiththeglobalobjectiveof1.50C,achievingnet-zeroemissionsin2050.ThesectoralmitigationmeasuresconsideredinCPSarebasedonnationalplansandpolicies.DDSincorporatesmoreambitiousactionsandotheravailabletechnologies.DDSsmainfeaturesarearadicalreductionindeforestationratesandanincreaseofcarbonsinks.Carbonpricingfrom2021isassumedforasignificantshareoftheemissions(EnergyandIPPU),withsectorsintroducingmitigationactionswithcostsEmilio L.La Rovere Carolina B.S.Dubeux William WiHS Michele K.C.Walter Giovanna Naspolini Otto Hebeda Daniel N.S.Gongalvez George V.Goes Marcio DAgosto Erika C.Nogueira Sergio H.F.da Cunha Claudio Gesteira Gaelle Le Treut Giovanna Cavalcanti Mark Bermanzon Center for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment(CENTRO CLIMA)at COPPE/UFRJ-Institute for Research and Graduate Studies of Engineering,Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.underthecarbonpriceineachperiod,startingwiththemostcost-effective.Carbonpricesareintroducedthroughacap-andtradesysteminIndustry,andacarbontaxonGHGemissionsfromthecombustionoffossilfuelsinothersectors.Theywillgrowlinearly,reaching25USDtC02qin2030 and65USDtC02eqin2050.Carbonpricingwillbeneutralfromafiscalperspective,with100%ofitsrevenuesrecycledbackintotheeconomythroughlabourchargesreductionaimingtofosteremployment,andtocompensatelow-incomehouseholdsfortheaveragepricelevelincrease.Populationsizeincreasesfrom210millioninhab-itantsin2019toabout233millioninhabitantsin2050.Inthisperiod,theurbanpopulationsharegrowsfrom86%to89%,Followingthesharpdown-turnintheeconomyfrom2015to2020duetoapolitical-economiccrisisandtheCOVID-19pandemic,Brazilianeconomyeconomicrecoveryisassumedtostarton2021:annualaverageGDPgrowthrateswouldbeof3,5%in2021;2.5%from2021to2030;2,25%from2031to2040;and2%from2041to2050(withlineargrowthassumedwithineachdecade).Afterthedrawbackinthe2015-2020period,Giniindexstartstodecreaseagain,butslowerthanthe2000-2015record.Householdsizeisprojectedtodecreaseslowlywhilehouseholddisposableincomeasa%ofGDPisprojectedtoincrease.TradewillbecomemoreimportanttoBrazilduringthescenariotimeframe,andimporttaxesandprotectionismwillbereduced,followingtheglobaltrend.Weuseanintegratedmodellingapproach,whereasetofsixsectoralmodelsislinkedtoaCGEmodel(IMACLIM-BR).Thesectoralmodelsconsistoffourenergydemandmodels(transport,industry,buildings,andagricultureenergydemand),anagri-culture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU)modelandanenergysupplymodel(MATRIZ).GHGemissionestimatesfromWastecompletethepicture.PART1:SCENARIORESULTS EMISSIONPROFILES GHGemissionsreach17MtCO2eqinDDSand1889inCPSby2050.Comparing2050inbothscenarioswith2020values,DDSis99%lower,while 7Table sector.MostGHGemissionreductionscomefromlandusechangeandforestry.ComparedtoCPS,in2050DDSemissionsfromdeforestationare93%lower,areductionof953MtCO2eq.Onthetopofthat,carbonremovalsincrease76%lequivalentto451MtCO2eq,thankstoincreasedforestedandprotectedareas(indigenouslandsandconservationunits).Transportisthesecondmostrelevantsector,withanemissionreductionof126MtCO2eq(53%),followedbythewastesectorwithareductionof120MtCO2eq(65%),andlivestockactivitieswith116MtCO2eq(22%).Finally,inindustrythereductionisof84MtCO2eq(31%),andinenergysupplyaddedtootherenergyconsumptionsectorsof27MtC2q(23%).Theonlyactivitywithasmallincreaseinemissionsiscropping,with4MtC2q(4%)moreemissionsinDDSduetohigherbiofuelsproduction.InDDS,onlytwosectorshavehigherGHGemis-sionsin2050thaninthebaseyear2019:croppingactivitiesincreaseemissionsby29%;andindustryby14%.Inthesecases,undertheassumptionofnomajorbreakthroughsordisruptivetechnologies,theimprovementoftechnologiescurrentlyinusewasnotsufficienttocompensateforthehigherproductionlevels.MITIGATIONACTIONS ANDCOSTS InDDS,besidesthehugeefforttocurbdowndeforestationandincreaseremovals,thecarbonpricingpolicysuppliesthecomplementarymiti-gationactionsinothersectorsrequiredtoreachnet-zeroemissionsin2050.Table2presentsthecumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsperdecade(MtCO2eq).Mtc02eq 2005 2010 2019 2020 2030 2005-2030 2040 2050 CPS-DDS(2050)Land Use Change CPS 2,171 668 1,024-53%1,024 1,024-93%(LUC)-gross emissions DDS 614-72%201 71 Removals CPS.249-313.574.591-556 123%-576-593 76%(LUC,Forest,Protected Areas and Other)DDS -695 179%-794-1042 Agriculture CPS 146 161 92 92 97-34%101 115 4%(crops+energy)DDS 99-32%106 119 Livestock CPS 329 329 433 432 466 42%485 529-22%DDS 453 38%444 413 Transport CPS 139 173 196 175-209 50%220 240-53%DDS 167 20%139 114 Industry CPS 139 162 162 166 194 40%232 268-31%(energy+IPPU)DDS 172 23%180 184 Energy(supply+demand from households CPS 100 111 121 95 127 27%115 120-23%and services)DDS 120 21%100 93 Waste CPS 61 69 100 102-105 71%145 186 65%DDS 76 25%78 65 Total CPS 2.837 1,361 1 47Q 1 a 1,665-41%1,745 1,889-99%DDS 1,005-65%454 17 Table 1-Total GHG Emissions per Sector,2005-2050,under CPS and DDS(Mt C2q)Commandandntrolpoliciescombinedwithconstrainingtheaccessoffarmersandrancherstopubliccredits(subjecttoconformitywithenvironmentallawsandregulations)achieve59%oftotalcumulativeGHGemissionreduc-tionsupto2050,throughthesharpreductionofannualdeforestationrate.The2004-2012recordhasalreadyshownthepotentialofthesemeasuresthatcanbesuccessfullyadoptedagain.Command-and-controlmeasuresalsoallowtoavoiddefor-estationthroughtheincreaseofthenumberandthesurfaceofconservationareas(e.g.,permanentpreservationareas,indigenouslanddemarcation,andotherlegalreserves).Thecarbonpricingpolicycansupply30%oftotalcumulativeavoidedemissionsupto2050indifferentsectors:AFOLU(18%),Transport(6.5%),Industry(4%),andEnergysupply(1%).Nativevegetationrestorationinpublicandprivateareashaveasignificantabatementpotentialandlowercoststhantheothersectors.Itallowstoremove2,647MtC2qupto2050,whennativevegetationrestorationwillreach30.18millionha.Privateareaspresentmoreattractivecostsincomparisonwithpublicareas(7versus17USD/tC2qin2021,8versus28in2031,and9versus31in2041).ConsideringtheenforcementofForestCodecompliance,privateareasprovidehighercumulativeavoidedemissionsin2021-2030(121versus38Mt2eq)andin2031-2040(322versus302MtC2q)thanpublicareas.However,inthelastdecade,thebulkofremovalswillcomefrompublicareasthankstoabettercost-effectiveness,andthusitscontributiontocumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsthroughoutthewhole2020-2050periodwillbeof1,6311against1,015MtC2qfromprivateareas.Theabatementcostassessmentindicatesthepathwayofcarbonprices.Costsforagivenmitiga-tionoptionmayvarythroughoutthethreedecadesCumulative avoided emissions per decade(Mt CO2eq)Decades 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 Total Mitigation Actions 3,629 10,069 16,103 Carbon Pricing Policy 1,013 2,618 5.254 AFOLU 619 1,483 3,281 Native forest restoration in public areas(through government concession)38