国际事务研究院-区域分裂与欧盟外交与安全政策（英）-2021.11-29正式版.docx

November 2021Contributing authors:Assem Dandashly, Nothando Maphalala and Akm UnverJOINTAjoined-upUnion,astrongerEuropeJOINTResearchPapersNo.3RegionalFragmentationandEUForeignandSecurityPolicyAgnesLevalloisThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion'sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogrammeundergrantagreementN.959143.Thispublicationreflectsonlytheviewoftheauthor(s)andtheEuropeanCommissionisnotresponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeoftheinformationitcontains.RegionalFragmentationandEUForeignandSecurityPolicyLeadauthor:AgnesLevalloisContributingauthors:AssemDandashly,NothandoMaphalalaandAkmUnver*AbstractThereisbroadacademicconsensusonthefactthatthefragmentationofregionspresentsasignificantchallengefortheEU.Fragmentationunderminestheauthorityofcentralstates,theEU,smostnaturalcounterparts,anddistributesitamongstagreatnumberofactors-includingnon-statearmedgroups.Toaddressfragmentation,theEUshouldincreasecoordinationbetweenactors(EUinstitutionsandmemberstates),integrateactionsacrossdifferentpolicyareas(securityandnon-security,externalandinternal)andengagewithexternalplayers(multilateralorganisations,globalpowers,regionalandlocalactors).AgndsLevalloisisSeniorResearchFellowattheFoundationforStrategicResearch(FRS).AssemDandashlyisAssistantProfessorinPoliticalScienceatthePoliticalScienceDepartmentofMaastrichtUniversity(UM).NothandoMaphalalaisHeadofResearchattheInstituteforPeaceandSecurityStudies(IPSS)ofAddisAbabaUniversity.AkinUnverisAssistantProfessorofInternationalRelationsatKadirHasUniversity.TheauthorswouldliketothankHylkeDijkstrafromUM,RiccardoAlcaro,HeadofGlobalActorsattheIstitutoAffariInternazionali(IAI)andJOINTCoordinator,GiulioPugliese,SeniorAsiaFellowatIAIandJOINTAssistantCoordinator,andLaurianeHeaufromFRSforprovidingfeedbackandreviewingthetext.IntroductionOverthepastfewyears,scholarsofInternationalRelationshavebeenincreasinglystudyingstatesthatlackcertainelementsofsovereignty,suchasufailedstates,uweakstates",collapsedstates",statesaffectedby,1imitedstatehood"Or"contestedstatehood",and"unrecognisedstatesn.Overthepastfewyears,thenumberofcountriesthatfallintooneofthesecategoriesofstateshasincreased-especiallyinareassurroundingtheEuropeanUnion(EU)(eastandsouth).ThisliteraturereviewprovideabetterunderstandingofthephenomenonofregionalfragmentationanditsimpactonEUforeignandsecuritypolicy.Specifically,itanswersthefollowingquestion:accordingtotheexistingliterature,howdoesincreasingregionalfragmentationaffecttheabilityoftheEUanditsmemberstatestodevelop,articulateandimplementcommonactiononcrisesandconflicts?Thisworkestablishesaconceptualbackground,highlightingtheconnectionbetweenthefragmentationofregionsandthe(in)abilityoftheEUanditsmemberstatestoformulateandimplementcommon(oratleastcoordinated)actions.Thereviewstartsbyprovidingabriefdefinitionofregionalfragmentation.Thisisfollowedbyadiscussionofthemultiplelevelsatwhichittakesplace.Thenextsectionfocusesonthedriversandtheactorsoffragmentation.Lastly,thepaperconsiderstheimpactoffragmentationontheEU,sabilitytoaddresscrisesandconflict.ThefinalsectionconcludeswiththemainfindingsoftheliteratureonregionalfragmentationanditsimpactontheEU.1. TheconceptofregionalfragmentationFragmentationhasbeenconceptualisedindifferentacademicdisciplines,andmanydefinitionsoftheconcepthaveemergedasaresult.InthefieldsofGeography1 ThomasRisse1wGovernanceConfigurationsinAreasofLimitedStatehood.Actors,Modes,Institutions,andResources*',inSFB-GovernanceWorkingPapers,No.32(April2012),https7www.sfb-governance.de/en/publikationen/sfb-700-working_papers/wp32/index.html;ThomasRisse,GovernanceunderLimitedSovereigntyw,inMarthaFinnemoreandJudithGoldstein(eds),BacktoBasics.StatePowerinaContemporaryWorld,Oxford,OxfordUniversityPress,2013,p.78-104;RobertI.Rotberg(ed.),WhenStatesFail.CausesandConsequences,Princeton,PrincetonUniversityPress,2004;RosaEhrenreichBrooks,TailedStates,ortheStateasFailure?0,inTheUniversityofChicagoLawReview,Vol.72,No.4(Fall2005),p.1159-1196,https:/scholarship.law.georgetown.edU/facpub/1108.andEconomics,forinstance,fragmentationhasbeenconceivedastheweakeningoftheelementsformingasystem:thediscontinuity,rupture,andisolationofspaces.ThisdefinitionisalsovalidinPoliticalScienceandSociology,insofarasthespacessubjectedtodiscontinuity,ruptureandisolationareunderstoodaspoliticalspaces,namelyspacesthecontrolofwhichisputativelyinthehandsofthestate.Whilevalid,thisdefinitionisinsufficient,asitdoesnottakeaccountoftheprocessbywhichinstitutionssystemserode.Fragmentationrelatestothephenomenonofamultiplicationofactors,affectinggoals,modalities,andinstrumentsofgovernanceConsequently,somescholarshaveattemptedamorecomprehensiveconceptualisationoffragmentationbytheidentificationofthreedimensions:uthenumberoforganizationsinamovement;thedegreeofinstitutionalizationacrosstheseorganizationsandthedistributionofpoweramongthem,.3Forthepurposeofthisliteraturereview,inwhichwefocusonregionsaffectedbycrisesandconflict,weunderstandfragmentationastheprocessbywhichstateauthority(thestateholdingthelegitimatemonopolyoverthemeansofviolenceandtheabilitytosetandenforcerules)andregionalrulesofengagementareerodingorcollapsingaltogether.Fragmentationisamultifacetedandmulti-levelphenomenonthatoccursnotonlyatthestatelevel,butalsowithinregionsandcommunities,multiplyingthenumberofactorsinvolvedintheprocess.Followinganexplorationofthekeyfactorsofregionalfragmentation-whetherpolitical,social,economic,ethnic,religious,orideological,thereviewhighlightsthediversityofactorscontributingtoandresultingfromthisprocess.2. LevelsoffragmentationThephenomenonoffragmentationtakesplaceatvariouslevels:states,regionsandcommunities.Statesinfragmentedregionsincreasinglygetincompetitionwithothercentresofpowers,includingnon-stateactors,intheirmissionof2StephanKlingebiel,TimoMahnandMarioNegre1Tragmentation:AKeyConceptforDevelopmentCooperation,inStephanKlingebiel,TimoMahnandMarioNegre(eds),TheFragmentationofAid.Concepts,MeasurementsandImplicationsforDevelopmentCooperation,London,PalgraveMacmillan,2016,p.1-18.3 KristinM.Bakke,KathleenGallagherCunninghamandLeeJ.M.Seymour,wAPlagueofInitials:Fragmentation,Cohesion,andInfightinginCivilWars,1inPerspectivesonPolitics,Vol.10,No.2(June2012),p.265.maintainingorder.4Fragmentationalsooccursattheregionallevel,inthatstatesinageographicalareanolongerhavetheability,eitherbecausetheyareunableorbecausetheyareunwilling,togeneratecollaborativepatternsofcontroloverissueareasorgeographicalspacesofsharedinterests(suchastradeorbordermanagement,tomentionjustafewexamples).Athirdlayerwherefragmentationtakesplaceiswithincommunities,wherearegroupingaroundsociallyconstructedidentitiesinvolvingcultural,national,ethnicorreligiousdimensionstakesplace.Fragmentationtakingplaceatonelevelislikelytohaveanimpactontheothers.Atthestatelevel,fragmentationisduetothedifficultyofmaintainingorderwithinastate,sborders.Thestateenterscompeteswithothercentresofpower,includingrivalstateauthorities(forinstance,subnationalauthoritiesseekingindependenceorautonomy)ornonstateactorssuchasterroristorganisations(e.g.,theIslamicState)armedmilitias(likethePopularMobilisationForcesinIraq),politicalpartiescontrollingtheirownmilitias(likeLebanon,sHezbollah)orillicittraffickingnetworks.5Statesaffectedbythisfragmentingdynamicsattractcompetitiveoutsideinterventionandserveastargetstoopportunisticaggressors.6FabriceBalancheconsidersthatstatefragmentationhasacommonprocessintheMiddleEast,despitesomenationalspecificities:thesegmentationofsocietyonconfessional,ethnicandnational(asinPalestine)orlocal(asinJordan)divisionsandthelossofstatelegitimacyduetothefailureofcapacitytogenerateanddistributegeneralwelfare.Behindthis,thereisageostrategiclogicofpowersseekingtoincreasetheirinfluenceoverthestateinquestion.?4 StephaneRosiere,wLafragmentationdeespace6tatiquemondia,inUespacepolitique,No.11(2010),https:/d0i.0rg/l0.4000espacepolitique.1608.5 WenceslasMonzala,ReflexionssurIeconceptd,etatsdefaillantsendroitinternational,MasterThesis,UniversitedeStrasbourg,2012,https710/13/7604/m_Reflexions-sur-le-concept-detats-defaillants-en-droit-international1.html;SharonLecocq,EUForeignPolicyandHybridActorsintheMiddleEast:ReadyforGeopoliticalContestation?",inGlobalAffairs,Vol.6,No.4-5(2020),p.363-380,https:/doi.Org/10.1080/23340460.2021.1872401.6 YannisA.Stivachtis5uPoIiticaI(In)SecurityintheMiddleEast*',inBettinaKochandYannisA.Stivachtis(eds),RegionalSecurityintheMiddleEast.Sectors,VariablesandIssues,Bristol,E-InternationalRelationsPublishing,2019,p.40,https:/www.e-ir.info/?p=78695.7 FabriceBalanche,uL,EtatauProche-OrientarabeentreCommunautarisme,client6lisme,mondialisationetprojetdeGrandMoyenOrient",inUespacepolitique,No.11(2010),https:/doi.org/10.4000/espacepolitique.1619;RaymondHinnebuschandJasmineK.Gani(eds),TheRoutledgeHandbooktotheMiddleEastandNorthAfricanStateandStatesSystem,London,Routledge,2020.AccordingtoRaymondHinnebusch,competitionbetweenastateandato-be-state,bothcountingoninterventionsbyregionalpowers'*,isexplainedbytheproblematicexportoftheWestphaliansystemtotheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA),withSyriaasthemaincaseinpoint.Lookingatthe"doublefailure"oftheSyrianstatetokeepcontrolovertheterritoryandstopthespreadofsectariannarratives,9HinnebuscharguesthattheWestphalianorderhasgivenuwaytoheterarchiczonesoflimitedstatehoodinwhichthesovereigntyofstatesiscontestedbybothinternational(supra-state)penetrationandsubstatefragmentation.10Theprocesshasactuallygonesofarthatfragmentedandoverlappinggovernance,permeableandcollapsingbordersandthelossofsovereigntytotransnationalmovementshavenowbecomethe“competitiveregime-buildingnrationaleoftheAssadregime.Thelatterhasreconfigureditselftofightinsurgentsinthecivilwar,jihadistwarlords,andthecompetitiveinterventionismofglobalandregionalpowersactiveinSyria.nFragmentationatthestatelevelalsolikelyimpactsregions-andregionalfragmentationcaninturndestabilisestates.ExamplesincludedevelopmentsinNorth-EastearnSyriathathaveimplicationsforTurkeyandtheinstabilityinSomaliathatisaffectingEthiopiaaswellasKenya.TheHornofAfrica(HoA)isactuallyaninterestingcase,asitincreasinglyshowstheelementsthatcharacterisefragmentedregions.Firstistheabsenceofahegemonorananchorstateabletostabilisetheregiontosomeextent.Secondistheeasewithwhichinternalconflictsinindividualstatesspilloverintoneighbouringstates,asisthecasewithSomalia.Thirdistheubiquityofsecessionistthruststhroughouttheregion.Inadditiontohostingsomeofthemostprotractedcrisesonthecontinent,greatpowerrivalriesareoftenplayedoutintheHorn.12Finally,fragmentationaffectscommunities.Theworldisincreasinglyinterconnectedthankstoinformationtechnologies,commercialexchangesandthemovementofpeopleandcapital.Paradoxically,greaterinterconnectionhasentailedgrowingfragmentationofpeoplesandwithincountries.Divisionswithinsocietiesareoneofthekeyemergingdynamicsidentifiedinreportsfocusingonlarge-scalesocietaltrends,withtermssuchasufragmentation,s"imbalance"and“contestation“increasinglyflaggedOUt.13Thisfragmentationleadstoaregroupingaroundbasicvaluessuchasculture,nationality,ethnicityorreligion.ThecaseofLebanonisparticularlyrelevant.There,allpoliticalpartiesarebasedoncommunityorconfessionalallegiancesandprivilegesareallocatedonthebasicofethnicorreligiousgroups.CivilwarsinLibya,YemenandSyriacontributetoatrendtowardsfamilyandclancommunities.Fragmentationoccursatalllevelswithinsociety,fromthestatetosubnationalcommunities.Besides,fragmentationononelevelimpactsotherlevels.Indeed,areasinwhichstateauthorityisweakoftenexperienceincreasedlocalconflicts,andthisinstabilitycanspilloverintoneighbouringstates,therebydestabilisingandpotentiallyfragmentingwholeregions.3. DriversoffragmentationFragmentationatthevariouslevelsoutlinedaboveisdrivenbyanumberoffactors.Afirstsetoffactorsliewiththedomesticstructure,weakinstitution,andlackoflegitimacyofstateactors.15RomanetPerrouxpointedinthecaseofLibyatodomesticfactorsasoneofthereasonsforthefragmentationexposedduringandafterthe2011revolution,whenarmedgroupswereformedaroundtribes,clansorneighbourhoods.16Thepoliticaltransitioniscurrentlystillatastandstill,andthe13 USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,GlobalTrends2040.AMoreContestedWorld,March2021,https:/www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home.14 RaffaellaA.DelSarto,41ContentiousBordersintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica:ContextandConcepts",inInternationalAffairs,Vol.93,No.4(July2017),p.767-787,https:/d0i.0rg/l0.1093iaiix070.15 StephenKrasnerandThomasRisse,uExternaIActors,State-Building,andServiceProvisioninAreasofLimitedStatehood:lntroduction'inGovernance,Vol.27,No.4(October2014),p.545-567.16 Jean-LouisRomanetPerroux5t,TheDeepRootsofLibya'sSecurityFragmentation,jinMiddlecountryisriddledwithafragmentedpoliticalandsecuritylandscape.ThelackofasenseofnationalidentityandweakcentralinstitutionsareatthecentreofLibya,sproblems.TheweaknessofinstitutionsandpoorgovernanceisalsoaddressedbyAlexanderRondoswhenresearchingtheH0A.17AccordingtoRondos,factionsactintheirinterestwhentheimpactofeconomicdifficultiesandthelackofeffectiveandcohesivestateandsocialinstitutionskickin.RomanetPerrouxdescribesthesituationasan“insecuritydilemma,wherebythescarceabilityofthecentralgovernmenttoprovidegovernancestimulatesperipheralcentresofpowertoprovidegovernancethemselves,whichinturnfurtherdiminishesthecentralstate,scapacityforgovernance.Perrouxnoteshowthissituationofinsecuritydilemmaemergesandconsolidatedwhereprocessofstate-buildingbasedonpluralityanddemocratisationaremissing.Moreover,asevidencedintheMENAregion,thelackofefficientinstitutionshasresultedinweakregionalism.Theliteraturealsopointstothelackofstatelegitimacyasakeydriveroffragmentation.KrasnerandRissearguethatwithoutlegitimacy,statefailureisallbutguaranteed,althoughtheyalsoarguethatlegitimacyisnotsufficientforeffectivegovernance.wZartmanalsouraisesthequestionoflegitimacyofplayersaswellastheirCaPabiIitieS”.20Thispointisimportantwithregardstoconflictmanagementefforts.Furthermore,theliteraturediscussestheeffectofexternalinterventiononfragmentationofaregion.RondosstatesthatintheHoAexternalinterventionisoneofthecombustibleingredients-alongwithdomesticfactors-inaregionalwayshoveringontheedgesofinsecurity.21Instead,theregionmusttrytosetoffaEasternStudies,Vol.55,No.2(2019),p.200-224.17 AlexanderRondos,wTheHomofAfrica:ItsStrategicImportanceforEurope,theGulfStatesandBeyond",inHorizons,No.6(Winter2016),p.150-160,https:/www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2016-issue-no-6/the-horn-of-africaits-strategic-importance-for-europe-the-gulf-states-and-beyond.*40MortenValbjorn1uNorthAfricaandtheMiddleEast",inTanjaA.BorzelandThomasRisse(eds),TheOxfordHandbookofComparativeRegionalismfOxford,OxfordUniversityPress,2016,p.249-270.19 StephenKrasnerandThomasRisse,"ExternalActors,State-Building,andServiceProvisioninAreasofLimitedStatehood:Introduction'1,cit.,p.563.20 I.WilliamZartman,"FragmentedConflict:HandlingtheCurrentWorldDisorder,inGlobalPolicy,Vol.10,No.S2(June2019),p.8,https7doi.org10.1111/1758-5899.12679.21Alexa