巴塞罗那国际事务研究中心-欧盟南部地区城市的气候弹性.欧盟绿色协议的机遇（英）-2021.11-38正式版.docx

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbourhoodOpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealThestudyispublishedintheframeworkoftheCascadingClimateImpacts(CASCADES)Project(2019-2023),fundedthroughtheEuropeanCommission'sHorizon2020programme,seewww.cascades.eu.ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbourhood:OpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealHannahAbdullah1KarimElgendyandHanneKnaepenNovember2021Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanicalincludingphotocopying,recordingoranyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthecopyrightholder.Pleasedirectallenquiriestothepublishers.Photocredit:Copyright©iStockContentsAcknowledgements4Summary5Introduction71. UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthern11Neighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience2. Acloserlookaturbanresilienceinthreecities163. BringingtheGreenDealtotheSouthern24Neighbourhood:Anopportunitytostepupcooperationwithcitiesaroundthewater-energy-foodnexusRecommendations2737Bibliography30AbouttheauthorsAcknowledgementsWewouldliketothankthefollowingfortheircontributiontothisreport:SarahArbezofCitesUniesLiban;HajarKhamlichiofMediterraneanYouthClimateNetwork;AbdellatifMahmoudofAssociationFederativedesExpertsetConsultantsdeIaCooperationTechniqueInternationale(AFECTI);MohamedSefiani,MayorofChefchaouen;GladaLahnandChrisAylettoftheEnvironmentandSocietyProgrammeatChathamHouse;AutumnForecast,RichCarterandIanBlenkinsopofSoapbox;andSarahFinch.SummaryCitiesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaarealreadysufferingtheeffectsofclimatechange.Weakurbanregulation,ineffectiveclimatepolicies,limiteddecentralizationandinsufficientempowermentoflocalauthoritiesandcivilsocietyfurtherdecreaseurbanresilience.Futureclimatescenariosandprojectedurbangrowththreatenthestabilityoftheregion;withpotentialnegativeknock-oneffectsonEurope.ThisCASCADESSpotlightStudyexaminesclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareasincountriestothesouthoftheEUandthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionandadvocatesforsystemicapproachestoaddressingurbanclimateresiliencebystrengtheningthewater-energy-foodnexus,aswellasotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludeswithrecommendationsonhowtheEuropeanGreenDealcanhelpcitiesintheregionadapttoclimateimpacts,basedonawater-energy-foodnexusapproach.Overthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhassteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience.AnincreasingnumberofprogrammesfinancedundertheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)Southhaveaddressedurbanclimateresilienceinresponsetotheregion'srapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities.ThenumberofurbandwellersinthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionisestimatedtoreach527millionin2050,anincreaseof72%comparedto2020.Atthesametime,climateimpacts-includingbothslowonsetchangesandsuddendisasters-areputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.Thisstressisaggravatedbyweakurbanregulationsthathavecreatedunsustainabledevelopmenttrendswhichunderminethepotentialbenefitsofurbanizationandadverselyaffecturbanclimateresilience.Theprevalenceofhighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreformshamperlocalcapacitybuildinganddecisionmaking,whichareprerequisitesforeffectiveadaptationandresilience.Theconvergenceoftheregion,sharshclimaticnditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenscanexacerbateexistingpoliticalinstability,conflict-inducedmigrationandpoverty.ThesedevelopmentscouldcascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,tradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththeSouthernNeighbourhood.TheEU,sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonurbaninfrastructureandclimategovernanceisafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregion'sintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.However,thisapproachisstillintheearlystagesandthereisaneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolvingintheregion.ThisstudysuggeststhattheEll'soverwhelmingfocusonsupportingcitiesintheregionwithenergyefficiencyandthetransitiontosustainableenergysystemsisnotenoughtostrengthenurbanclimateresilience.IncitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood,whichtypicallystrugglewithresourcemanagementandscarcity,climateresiliencewillincreasinglydependonlocalcapacitiestoformulateandimplementnexusapproaches,especiallyinthewater,energyandfoodsectors.Basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,thestudyadvocatesforasystemicapproachtoaddressingurbanclimateresilienceinSouthernNeighbourhoodcities.Consideringtheestablishedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,thepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilealsohighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludesbyexploringhowfutureexternalactionaroundtheEuropeanGreenDealanditsambitionsforsystemictransformationcouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodaroundthewater-energy-foodnexus.IntroductionOverthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhasprogressivelysteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience,signallingitsrecognitionoftheimportantrolelocalgovernmentsplayinthetransitiontoaclimate-neutralEurope(Kern,2019;Abdullah,2021).Inlinewiththeseefforts,thestrategistsbehindtheEuropeanGreenDeal(EGD)stressthatcitiesuwillhaveahugeroletoplayinthefundamentaltransformationthattheGreenDealistodriveinoursocieties"(EuropeanCommissionVicePresidentFransTimmermansquotedinEuropeanCommitteeoftheRegions,2019).ThenewClimate-NeutralandSmartCitiesmissionrunbytheHorizonEuroperesearchandinnovationprogramme,whichsupportsandshowcasescitiesasinnovationhubsthatcanaccelerateandleadontheEGD,isoneexampleofpioneeringinitiativesunderway(EuropeanCommission,n.d.a).Asurbanexperimentationwithclimatemitigationhasshown,citiesaretheoptimalscalefortheelaborationandimplementationofpolicyinnovation(Bulkeley&CastanBroto,2012).Theyarelargeenoughtotestandpilotnewideasbeforemodellingsolutions,andsmallenoughtodiscardthemiftheydonotworkwellwithoutexcessivecosts.ClimateresilienceatsubnationallevelhasalsobecomeafocusareaoftheEU,sworkwithitsneighbourstothesouth.TheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)isaforeignrelationsinstrumentforcooperationwithneighbouringcountriesandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodcoverstenpartnercountries:Algeria,Egypt,Israel,Jordan,Lebanon,Libya,Morocco,Palestine,SyriaandTunisia.Inresponsetotheregion,srapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities,anincreasingnumberofprogrammesfinancedunderENP-Southaddressurbanclimateresilience.Inaddition,theUnionfortheMediterranean(UfM)-theintergovernmentalorganizationofthe27EUmemberstatesand15partnercountriesfromtheMediterraneanbasin-adopteditsfirstUrbanAgendain2017(UfM,2017),signallingthepoliticalwillingnesstoestablishamorecoordinatedapproachtourbanpolicy,includingonclimateresilience.Despitebeinghometosomeoftheoldestcontinuouslyinhabitedcitiesoftheworld,theMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region,whichextendsfromtheMaghrebinnorthwestAfricatotheLevant,Iraq,andtheArabianPeninsula,isalatecomertourbanizationcomparedtoEuropeandNorthAmerica.WhilewesternEuropeurbanizedinthe19thcentury,reaching40%urbanpopulationatthebeginningofthe20thcentury,urbandwellersintheMENAregionrepresentedonly16%ofthetotalpopulationatthattime.Duringthe20thcentury,theglobalizationofhinterlandsallowedcitiesoftheMENAregiontoovercometheirlimitednaturalresources,whichfuelledrapidgrowthinurbanization.Theregion,surbanpopulationgrewfrom35%ofthetotalinthe1960sto65%today,andremainshigherthantheglobalaverage(WorldBank,2021;Elgendy&Abaza,2020).Estimatesprojectthatthenumberofurbandwellersintheregionwillreach381millionin2030and527millionin2050,thenumberofcitieswithonetofivemillionresidentswillincreasesignificantly,andthemajorityofurbanagglomerationswillgrowatanannualrateofonetothreepercent(UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,2018b).Atthesametime,climatehazardsandchangeareputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.TheArabregionwillbecomehotteranddrier,withexpectedincreasesinaverageannualtemperaturesof1.2oC-2.6oCbythemiddleofthe21stcenturyandupto1.5oC-4.8oCbytheendofthecentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenario.Temperatureincreasesareexpectedtobemorepronouncedinthesummer,andinnon-coastalcities.Averagemonthlyrainfallwillreduce,particularlyincoastalcities,whichwillleadtoincreasedaridity(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2017).Theprojectedtemperatureincreasesdonotcapturethetemperatureextremes,whichareexacerbatedbyurbanbuild-upandalreadyexceedwhaturbaninfrastructurecanwithstandinmanyplaces.Citiesacrosstheregion,includingDamascusandBaghdad,witnessedrecordtemperaturesinthesummerof2020,increasinghealthriskstoresidents(Alahmadetal.,2020;Al-Bouwarthanetal.,2019).Theseclimateimpactsandstressorsarefurtheraggravatedbygenerallyweakregulation(weaklawsorweakenforcementorboth)thathasallowedunsustainableurbandevelopmenttrendsthatadverselyaffecturbanclimateresilience.Energyandwaterinefficiency,inadequatedrainage,buildingonnaturalfloodplainsandalackofalternativemobilitymodesarecommonfeatures.Inpart,thelackofurbanplanningisduetohighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreforms,whichhamperlocalcapacitybuildingandlocaldecisionmaking.Administrations,bothcentralandlocal,areoftenunabletokeepupwithurbanexpansionandrisingdemandforessentialservices,especiallywater,energyandwastemanagement.Theresulthasbeenanexplosionofinformalactivitiesandagrowinggapinstandardsbetweenprivateandpubliclymanagedspaces(Elgendy&Abaza,2020;Farhan&Al-Shawamreh,2019;Piffero,2009).Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenswillexacerbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpoverty.Thiscouldleadtosocialandpoliticalinstability,andpossiblytoconflictsthatwouldinturninducefurtherpovertyandmigration(Abouelnaga,2019).Europewillnotbeinsulatedfromthesepotentialchainsofevents,whichwilllikelycascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,supplychainandtradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththecountriesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood.Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio"economicburdenswillexacerbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpovertyTheEU,sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonclimategovernanceintheSouthernNeighbourhoodhasbeenafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregion,sintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.ProgrammeslaunchedundertheENP(seeBox1,page25)havemainlyassistedmunicipalitiesandgovernorateswiththepreparationofsustainableenergyandclimateactionplans,andrecentyearshavealsoseennascentexperienceinfinancingandimplementationofthoseplans(Almasri&Sarkar,2021).Notably,themovetowardsworkingonurbanissuesunderENP-Southhasbeenpartofabroadershifttowardscity-levelclimateactiondrivenbyglobalinitiativesliketheC40CitiesClimateLeadershipGroup,ResilientCitiesNetworkandEBRD'sGreenCitiesActionPlan,whichincludecitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodamongtheirmembers.ButurbanclimatecooperationbetweenEuropeandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodisstillintheearlystagesandthereisfurtherneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandonhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolving.TheEuropeanCommission'snewagendafortheSouthernNeighbourhood(EuropeanCommission,2021b)highlightsthegreentransitionandclimateactionaspriorityareasandintegraltotheregion,sresilientpost-pandemicrecovery.Yet,whileitrecognizesthelocalandurbandimensionsoftheseprocesses,thechallengesandopportunitiestheyposerequiremoreelaboration.ClimatecooperationatthesubnationallevelcreatesnewchallengesfortheEU.Forexample,thereisgeneralconsensusthatanexusapproachtomanagingresourcesimprovesclimateresilience(Medinilla,2021;Mohtar,2017;UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2016).TheEU'sdevelopmentprojectsandplansintheSouthernNeighbourhoodthatfocusonnational-levelinfrastructureandagricultureoftenadoptasingle-systemapproach.EUcity-levelprogrammeshavesofarlargelyfocusedonfindingsectoralsolutionsforenergy(seeBox1,page25).Butasdemonstratedbytheregionalcasestudiesinthispaper,thetransformationofasingleurbansectorisnotenoughtostrengthencity-levelclimateresilience.Instead,exploringsynergiesbetweenurbansectors-inparticularwater,energyandfood-canprovidemoreresilientandsustainablesolutions(GIZ&ICLEI,2014).Thistypeofapproachhasnotbeenappliedmuchinurbancooperationprogrammes.WiththeEUcurrentlychartingtheexternaldimensionoftheEGD(CounciloftheEuropeanUnion,2021)1thisisanopportunemomenttoassesshowclimateandenergydiplomacycouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesaroundwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches.TheEGD,sambitionforsystemictransformationcallsforasystemicapproachtourbanclimateresilienceandsustainabilitythatidentifiestrade-offsandstrengthenssynergiesbetweensectors.ThisstudyexaminesthespecificclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareasintheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion,and,basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,1Itadvocatesforaholisticvisionandsystemicapproachinaddressingurbanclimateresilienceincities.Consideringtheestablishedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,thepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinasystematicwayinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilehighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.Italsoidentifiesthewater-energy-foodnexusasaneffectiveentrypointforadvancingEGDgoalsintheSouthernNeighbourhood.Thestructureofthepaperisasfollows: Part1providesanoverviewoftheregion'sexposuretoimpactsofclimatechangethatincreasevulnerabilityandreduceresilienceofcitiesandurbanareas.Itanalysesfactorslimitingcities,capacitytoadaptandbarrierstointegratingurbansustainabilityandresilience,andtheregion'swater-energy-foodnexus.1Intermediarycitiesarecitieswithapopulationbetween50,000andonemillionpeoplethatgenerallyplayaprimaryroleinconnectingruralandurbanareastobasicfacilitiesandservices. Part2presentscasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediarycitiesinMorocco(Chefchaouen),Lebanon(Hammana)andTunisia(Gabes)toexaminecurrentregionalapproachestourbanresilienceandsustainabilitywhichdonotalwaysexplorelinkageswithothersectors. Part3exploreshowexternalactionaroundtheEGDprovidesanopportunitytomovebeyondsectoralurbancooperationandtowardsamoresystemicapproachthatsupportscitiesinformulatingandimplementingwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches. ThepaperconcludeswithRecommendationsonhowtheEUcanbuildonthecooperationandpartnershipsithasalreadyestablishedwithsubnationalactorstobetterunlockthepotentialforbuildingclimateresilienceincitiesoftheSouthernPartnership.1. UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilienceUrbanclimateimpactsCitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion?faceanumberofclimaterisks.Averageannualtemperaturesacrosstheregionarepredictedtoriseby1.5oC-2.3oCor3.2oC-4.8oCbytheendofthe21stcentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenarioused.Maximumtemperaturesareexpectedtorisefrom43to50,especiallyininland