观察家研究基金会-对欧盟印太战略的评估（英）-2021.11-20正式版.docx

三nr能薪器xlvlFolndaticIssueBriefISSUENO.504NOVEMBER2021©2021ObserverResearchFoundation.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copied,archived,retainedortransmittedthroughprint,speechorelectronicmediawithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromORF.©RFAnAssessmentoftheEuropeanUnion,sIndo-PacificStrategyGirishLuthraAbstractThenewIndo-PacificstrategybytheEuropeanUnion(EU)followspreviousmeasurestoincreaseengagementwiththeregionintheeconomic,securityandconnectivitydomains.TheplanindicatesaclearintenttopositiontheEUintheemergingglobalandregionalgovernancestructures,focusingonstrategicautonomy,inclusivity,therules-basedorder,andcommonpublicgoods.Implementingtheactionplanbasedonthestrategyislikelytofacenumerouschallenges,includingevolvingandsustainingconsensusonitwithintheEU.Nevertheless,itholdspromiseincontributingtothestabilityanddevelopmentoftheIndo-Pacific.Attribution:GirishLuthra,uAnAssessmentoftheEuropeanUnion'sIndo-PacificStrategy,"ORFIssueBriefNo.504,November2021,ObserverResearchFoundation.nApril2021,theEuropeanUnion(EU)releasedthe'EUStrategyforCooperationintheIndo-Pacific,'adocumentoutliningacooperationplanwiththelndo-Pacific.ThestrategydefinestheregionasextendingfromtheeastcoastofAfricatothePacificIslandStates.ThisdiffersfromtheAmericanandAustralianconceptualisationoftheIndo-PacificasstretchingfromthewestcoastoftheUStothewesternshoresofIndia,andtheJapanese,FrenchandtheIndianinterpretationsthatseeitasextendingfromtheshoresofAfricatothatoftheAmericas.?Notwithstandingsuchinterpretations,theEU,sstrategyhassignalledaclearintenttoreorientthegrouping'sgeopoliticaloutlookandprovideguidanceforenhancedengagementwiththeIndo-Pacific.TheEuropeanCommissionandtheEUHighRepresentative/VicePresidentwererequestedtopresentafinalcommunicationforapprovalbasedontheproposedstrategy,whichwassubsequentlyreleasedon16September2021throughajointcommunicationtotheEuropeanParliamentandtheEuropeanCouncilthatoutlinedtherationaleforadeeperengagementwiththeIndo-Pacificandthekeyprinciplesthatwillguideit.3Abroadactionplantoimplementthestrategywasalsoincludedinthejointcommunication.WhileFrance,GermanyandtheNetherlandsalreadyhadguidelinesandstrategydocumentsfortheIndo-Pacific,4theEU-wideumbrellastrategyisamajordevelopment.ItemphasisesthatEuropeaneconomicprosperityandtheEU,svisionofitsroleinamultipolarworldisstronglylinkedtotheIndo-Pacificregion.ItisanacknowledgementbyBrusselsoftheevolvinggeopoliticalrealities,andmarksarebalancefromthepreviousfocusonEasternEurope,theCaucasus,theLevantandNorthAfriCa.5TheguidancedocumentexplicitlyoutlinesawidespectrumofpotentialengagementwithcountriesintheIndoPacific,withamoveawayfromanexclusivefocusontradeandinvestmentbasedpartnerships.Nevertheless,thenewstrategydocumentfortheIndo-PacificmustbeseeninthecontextoftheEU,sforeignandsecuritypolicyevolution.Withinthisbroadframework,thispaperwilloutlinethedistinctivefeaturesoftheEU,sIndoPacificstrategy,keyimperativesdrivingtheapproach,andthepotentialchallengesinitsimplementation.TL.heEU,sexternalpolicieshaveevolvedgraduallysincethegrouping'sformationin1993,bringininincreasedinternalcohesion.In2016,theEUpromulgatedtheEuropeanUnionGlobalStrategy(EUGS)1whichreplacetheEuropeanSecurityStrategy(adoptedin2003.TheEUGShighlightedtheimportanceofstrategicautonomyfortheEUandstressedtheneedtoenhanceitscredibilityasaglobalplayer.Keyaspectscoveredweretoimproveinternalandexternalsecurity;stabilisefragilestatesontheEU,sperimeter;developanintegratedapproachtoconflictandcrises;promotepeaceandintegration;displayacommitmenttomultilateralsystems;andpromotesustainabledevelopmentandrespectforhumanrights.6Inaddition,thestrategyexplicitlyhighlightedthedirectconnectionbetweenEuropeanprosperityandAsiansecuritysinceEuropeantradeandinvestmentinAsiadependedonstabilityintheregion.TheprogressoftheEUGShasbeenreviewedthroughannualimplementationreports,andtherehavebeencallstodevelopandpromulgateanewstrategyalignedmorewiththechangingenvironmentandchallenges.?Around80percentofthegoodsenteringtheEUtransitthroughtheIndianOcean,andhencethesecurityoftransitroutes,freedomofnavigationandtheruleoflawarecriticalforthegrouping.8TheEuropeanUnionMaritimeSecurityStrategy(EUMSS)wasadoptedinJune2014aftermuchdeliberation,withanactionplanagreeduponinDecember2014underfivekeyareas:maritimeawareness;capabilitydevelopment;riskmanagement,protectionofcriticalmaritimeinfrastructure,andcrisisresponse;researchandinnovation;andeducationandtrainingsTheactionplanwasrevisedinJune2018toincluderegionalresponsestoglobalchallengesinthemaritimedomain.TheEUMSSanditsattendantactionplanshadasignificantroleinmainstreamingmaritimeaspects,withmaritimesecurityaccordedhighpriority,inEUpoliciesandengagementwithotherregions,particularlythewesternIndianOcean.SecurityCooperationInthepost-ColdWarperiod,theEUdrewcomfortfromarepurposedNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)andlimiteditssecuritycooperationindistantregions.ItsawprincipalthreatsfromarevanchistRussia,Islamistterrorism,civilwarsandinsurgenciesinitsperiphery,WestAsiaandNorthAfrica,andmigration.wHowever,inthelastdecade,therehasbeenanincreasedrecognitionthatsecurityandstabilityintheIndo-PacificregiondirectlyimpactEuropeansecurity.nDiplomaticengagementwithAsiawassteppedupthroughmultilateralandbilateralmechanisms,includingtheAsia-EuropeMeeting(ASEM).TheEUalsoparticipatesintheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)RegionalForumandEastAsiaSummit,isanobserverattheSouthAsianAssociationforRegionalCooperation,andcollaboratesextensivelywiththeAfricanUnionandtheIndianOceanRimAssociation.TheEUalsohasstrongbilateralpartnershipswithJapan,SouthKorea,China,andIndia.TheEUhasparticipatedinmilitaryoperationsinWestAsiaandNorthAfricaundertheNATOumbrellaorcoordinatedundertheCommonSecurityandDefencePolicy,withvoluntaryparticipationbythenationalmilitaries.12TheEUhasprovidedthebulkoffundingtotheIndianOceanCommission(IOC),whichwascreatedin1982andinstitutionalisedin1984,andcurrentlycomprisesfiveisland-nations(Comoros,ReunionIsland,Madagascar,Mauritius,andSeychelles)andsevenobservers,includingtheEU.Since2005,maritimesecurityisakeypartoftheIOC-EUpartnership,withaspecialfocusonEasternandSouthernAfricaandtheWesternIndianOcean.13In2018,theEUlaunchedtheMaritimeSecurityprogrammetostrengthencapacity-buildingandinformationsharingwithcountriesineasternandsouthernAfricaandtheIndianOcean.11ThiswasfollowedbyacomprehensivedeclarationonmaritimesecurityinthewesternandsouthernIndianOceaninJune2019.sTheEUalsofundsseveralregionalprogrammesinthefieldofsustainablefisheries,portsecurityandmaritimeinfrastructureinthewesternIndianOceanregion.UndertheEUMSS,membercountrieswereencouragedtodeploytheirnavalassetstostrengthenmaritimesecurityagainstincreasingthreats.Althoughhigh-leveldialoguesonmaritimesecuritywereinstitutedwithASEAN,IndiaandChina,thewesternIndianOceanwastheprimaryareaforEUnavalpresenceanddeployments.TheEUlauncheditsfirstnavaloperationundertheEUNavalForce(EUNAVFOR)inSomaliain2008(OpAtlanta)toprotectshippingheadingtoandfromthatcountry.Thescopeofthemissionwaslaterexpandedtoincludecounterpiracy.InSomalia,theEUhasalsosustainedcapacitybuildingandtrainingmissions.EuropeannavalshipsalsoparticipateinUSandNATO-ledtaskforcesinthewesternIndianOcean.TheEU,sapproachtosecurityinthelastdecadeorsofocusedonthreatssuchasterrorism,piracyandarmedrobbery,organisedcrimeandunlawfulacts,illicittraffickingofarms,narcoticsandhumans,illegalfinancialflows,illegalandunreportedfishing,andmaritimemilitia.Otherchallengeslikemarineecology,biodiversity,climateandenvironmentwerealsooftenincludedindiscussionsonsecurity.EconomicImperativesInconjunctionwiththeUS,Europeplayedamajorroleinshapingthepost-1945tradingsystemandinthepromulgationoftheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTradein1947.NumerousrulesandnormsrelatedtotradewereprogressivelymadebindingforEUmemberstatesthroughlegislation.Thenormativerootsofarules-basedsystemcanalsobeseenintheEU,seconomicintegrationandsingle-marketprinciples.Duetothenatureofitsstructuralandlegalprovisions,theEUcannotfollowpowerandthreat-basedtradepoliciesliketheUS,norcanitundertakelarge-scalestrategicinvestmentslikeChina.17AnymajorstructuralchangeinthecurrenttradingsystembasedonUSorChineseapproachescanjeopardiseEurope,seconomicstatureandinterests.Accordingly,in2021,Brusselsupdateditstradepolicytoemphasiseuopenstrategicautonomy,whichalignswellwiththefreeandopenIndoPacificconstructasitcontinuestofocusonpreferentialtradeagreementswithdevelopedandmiddle-incomeeconomiesandeconomicpartnershipagreementswithdevelopingcountries.TheEU,sMarketAccessStrategy19ismeanttocreatethebestpossibleconditionsforEuropeanfirms,intellectualpropertyrightsprotection,anddisputesettlement.IttrackstradeandinvestmentbarriersthroughannualreportsandsupportsthereformandstrengtheningoftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).Asablock,theEUistheworld,slargesttraderofmanufacturedgoodsandSerViCeS(seeFigure1)andranksfirstininboundandoutboundinvestments.20Figure 1:GlobalTradeinGoodsandServices,2009-2019(inbillioneuros)so-nWOOOO7060Countries2009b2014h2019Source:AdaptedfromtheEuropeanCommission'sDGTradeStatisticalGuide,August2020However,theEU,sshareinglobaltradedeclinedfrom18.1percentin2009to16.4percentin2019(seefigure2)despiteanaveragegrowthof6percentoverthesameperiod.Figure 2:PercentageShareinGoodsandServices,2009-2019(in%)CanadaSingaporeIndiaSouthKoreaSHongKongUKJapanChinaUSAEU-2768101214161820ShareinPercentage(%)2019B2014B2OO9Source:AdaptedfromtheEuropeanCommissionDGTradeStatisticalGuide,Aueust2020,EU-ChinatradehasseenasignificantincreasesinceChinajoinedtheWTOinDecember2001,withtheEU,sexportsingoodsincreasingbyover10percentandinservicesbyover15percentperyear.Importsalsogrewrapidly,withtheEU,stradedeficitrisingtoUS$200billion.21TheEUisnowChina'slargesttradingpartner,andChinaistheEU,ssecond-largest.RisingconcernsaboutChina,stradeandinvestmentpoliciesanditsdisregardforhumanandlabourrightschangedEuropeanperceptionsoftheBeltandRoadInitiative.AbroaderhardeningofpoliticalstanceshascontributedtothedelayinratifyingtheEU-ChinaComprehensiveAgreementonInvestment(CAI).However,aninprincipleagreementwasinkedinDecember2020betweenthetwosideswiththeincorporationofseveralsafeguards.22Nevertheless,theEUmustcontinuecooperationwithChina,particularlyintrade,investmentandclimatechange.TheEUalsohashightradevolumeswithJapan,SouthKorea,India,SingaporeandAustralia(seeFigure3foracomparisonoftheEU,stotaltradewiththesefivecountries,andChinaandtheUS).Figure 3:TotalEUTradein2019(inbillioneuros)561.9619700600500400300200100380USAAustralia + India + Japan + Singapore + South KoreaSource:AdaptedfromEuropeanCommission'sTradeStatisticsTheEUhassignedregionaltradeagreementswithIndo-PacificcountrieslikeSouthKorea(2011),Singapore(2019),Japan(2019)andVietnam(2020),andeconomicpartnershipagreementswiththePacificstates(Fiji,PapuaNewGuinea,Samoa,andtheSolomonIslands).TheEUwillreapsignificanteconomicbenefitsfromtheexistingpacts,andpotentialtradedealswithASEANandSouthAsiancountriesandthefourQuadstates(India,Australia,Japan,andtheUS).23ConnectivityIn2014,theEUgavefreshimpetustoitsapproachtoconnectivitythroughdiscussionswithChinaandintheASEM.InOctober2018,theEuropeanCounciladoptedthe'ConnectingEuropeandAsia-BuildingBlocksforanEUStrategy/whichwasdevelopedaroundfourP川arsenergy,transport,digital,andpeople-to-peoplelinksandaimedforsustainable,secureandsmartconnectivity.24Thestrategyalsoaimedtoenhancetradeandinvestmentundertheexistingandevolvingrules-andnorms-basedframework.25TheEU,svaluepropositiononconnectivityfocusesontrade,businessandfinanceflowsthataresustainable,comprehensiveandrules-based.InSeptember2019,theEll'sfirstpartnershiponconnectivitywasfinalisedwithJaPan.26InthejointministerialstatementissuedinDecember20201theEUandASEANoutlinedtheobjectivetopromoteconnectivitybetweenthetworegions.27ThiswasfollowedbytheEU-IndiaComprehensiveConnectivityPartnershipinMay2021tosupport*,resilientandsustainableconnectivityprojects,inIndiaandotherregionssuchasAfrica,CentralAsia,andtheIndo-PaCifiC.28TheEirSnewIndo-Pacificstrategyisaprogressiononprevioussecurity,economicandconnectivityplans,suchastheEuropeanUnionGlobalStrategyandEuropeanUnionMaritimeSecurityStrategy.Inmanyways,theEU,snewIndo-PacificstrategyisaprogressionoftheEUGS,EUMSS,andotherregion-,country-,andsector-specificstrategydocuments.ThenewIndo-PacificstrategyemphasisesthattheEUW川reinforceitsstrategicfocus,presence,andactionsinthatregion.Itstressestheneedforalong-termperspectivewhileretainingadequateflexibility,andhighlightssevenpriorityareas:sustainableandinclusiveprosperity;greentransitions;oceangovernance;digitalgovernanceandpartnerships;connectivity;securityanddefence;andhumansecurity.Thejointcommunicationstatesthatintensecompetition,militarybuild-upandincreasingtensionsinhotspotssuchastheSouthChinaSea,theEastChinaSea,andtheTaiwanStrait,directlyimpactEuropeansecurityandprosperity/Notably,FranceistheonlyEUmembercountrywitharegularnavalpresenceinthewiderIndo-Pacificregion.AsaresidentpowerwithislandterritoriesintheIndianOceanandthePacificOcean,Francehasbeendeepeningitsmaritimesecuritycooperationwithcountriesintheregion,andmaintainsamilitarypresenceintheUAE5Djibouti,ReunionIsland,Mayotte,NewCaledonia,andFrenchPolynesia.30Ithasalsodelineatedjointregionalcommandsandmaritimezonesinbothoceansandhasconductedregularnavaldeploymentsandexercisesintheregion.Furthermore,FrancewasthefirstEUcountrytooutlineavisionfortheIndo-Pacificin2018,31andastrategyin2019.32IthaslongurgedforacomprehensiveEuropeanapproachtotheIndo-PaCifiC声andwilllikelybeatorchbeareroftheEU,smilitarypresenceanddeploymentsintheregionintheneartomediumterm.Thenewstrategydocumentalsoreferstoanincreaseinhybridthreats,andstressesthattheIndo-Pacificregionisvitalformitigatingclimatechangeandprotectingthedelicateecologicalbalance.OnChina,thedocumentstatesthatamultifacetedengagementandtheCAIwillbemutuallybeneficialbutaddsthattheEUwillcontinueto“pushbackt,whererequired.TheEU,soverallChinastrategyseekstoaddresssometradechallengesthroughdefensivemeasuresandsuitablebalancingwithtransatlanticcooperationwiththeUS.uWithintheIndo-Pacific,theEUhasmajortradeandinvestmentrelationswithmanycountries.AccordingtotheSeptember2021jointcommunication,EuropeandtheIndo-Pacificaccountforover70percentofglobaltradeingoodsandservices,andover60percentofglobalforeigndirectinvestmentflows.ThestrategyalsoindicatesplanstoconcludetradeagreementswithAustraliaandNewZealandandmakeprogressontradetalkswithIndonesia,India,Malaysia,thePhilippines,andThailandandtheeconomicpartnershipagreementwiththeEastAfricanCommunity.ThenewstrategyconsidersconnectivityasakeydrivingforceinitsoutreachtotheIndo-Pacificregion,andakeytoolforcooperationinthe21stcentury,andidentifiesJapan,India,andtheASEANas"coreIndo-Pacificpartners".WhenseenincomparisonwiththeIndo-Pacificstrategiesandoutlooksofothercountries,theEll'sstrategyhasseveraldistinctfeatures:WideScope:Whilethefocu