2024年欧元区经济报告.docx

MacroeconomicdevelopmentsAfteracontinuedreboundin2022,theeuro-areaeconomywitnessedastrongdecelerationthisyear.I”2022,仪/gev出VZ-CCMU>心Uzwtvpd>uhuh-to-334%C£Z>nz>mi£zemM/Pezfhi>vCtaergypru£/izvZwtMerof2CQ2-)ZetAn0vcUCnThZZLabotrJAwkPuMZ(X6*vlwJyJIc6y叶nAx£#t>f£zMz>mt£/rlte*veez5Mpp6>rfa吁SfiLLi(VX£rrifvtcz>l½>navcCMz%jD/of-H7wfVHmCKpMrWOV板冰5£z吁2223.Fbr2223,CPP阶核eunrrezMdby06%wvWffarz×yerQw¼G%Mz.lRealGDPgrowthandcontributions,euroareaConsumptionmbInvestment(GFCF)InventoriesinvestmentNetexportsRealGDPgrowth(Z)dajrEA2O邛rf-Hia检斓业Wi外Source:EiAnJPezu*v6m*v>vfPertM*uLCZM/)妙¼-vivi>e££/ftvt/.Rm>mtMLwavotd£borJajdtMyf%>jbk/UA£z>meCFV¼nvp>rfiavvMi/vcz11r¼rRee>-rvyf¾<for#x£zCMrtrrvpd>u-廿wtake6>n6>mu/¢vc7wvcz>rcnMLNWkrdUjin/utryt>Mrvvuz5£me£wKhzwvc<,c£riku>vwui>Lu0<37vemeMi>vZ(i)cvejpoiprvjcctt£b¼Ofrovro4roJW?UHXC/PaewrvculUzjuc)joMlewu<tM<vvej;hz/M姑廿btj¢(z?mct£z<plvuuLOveralLi6PPfor7M×eurtare3eeez让grw1.2%iv如241.6%UV如25(GQPh1.1).Energypriceshavegonedown,whileinflationexcludingenergyandfoodremainshighthoughfallinggradually.EunruWu>pvJILIFVOdobtiri¼-24%Tk出WtrV的m43%ivSfdbcrjjL核kvuj77p)nwMzPekZin/O(ober2022.7¼×deliwe*vri>wi%falLuenayf2rue(pt2-6vzZtAL(pwMwi>v-/MzMrcz>mn£jLowtirJbrfojCZnWVwiypru£gezrwtcewin/Zz>rvCnpri/¼-0>")txlLYuaom忒他U他也心心口如VI必WdMktLSrvii>Wu>nz0>-(X"壮ocz>mwtC初OJiJrCZ>mpd>n£yv/5/(>4Gi>vOcfb,OfttirOFVuj<to-56%CfvJi),叶norwfh<>i>rewju*uprofit(seeBox3.1)"de5t*如晶"Cybrcz>n>jv5*vu0(¼urwThzzyMe>u>nmu<yp&UeyOCcZWyaLpd>(ietehzz>(/ee×inLfe>rwy($e£zSfc>>vAOVenlVJuMirJbi*vWu？n/3rojeeeztrkluZ×i*v-fM×ewtrAmildreboundingrowthisexpectedduetoeasingofinflationandastronglabourmarketBken224jz/5lCPvi>Uu>n/(j)HinJpe*vConAniiin6u*vtc<>>MMner5Mrvtyareafrom8.4%n2022to5.6%n2023,andthenfurtherdownto3.2%in2024and2.2%in2025.Coreinflation(?)isexpectedtobeslightlymorepersistent,however,increasingto5.1%in2023from4.0%in2022,andthensubsequentlyfallingto3.2%in2024and2.5%in2025.(Graph1.2)inpricesovertheprevious10years(Graph1.3).Inanumberofcountries1includingtheBaIticstCroatiaandSlovakia,theshockisevenstronger.Graph1.3:Convergenceofunderlyinginflation,euroareaGraph1.2Jnflationbreakdown,euroareaEnergyandunprocessedfood(pps.)Othercomponents(coreInflatk>n)(pps.)-HICP,allitemsSourceEuropeanCOrnmiSSion0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-'ll"(1)HICPinflationexdudingfoodandenergy(2)2019-2023cumulatedinflationcomparedto2009-2019cumulatedinflationSource:Eurostat,owncalculationsThedecreaseinenergypricesover2023haspartlyreducedthedifferencesininflationratesbetweentheeuro-areacountries.In2022,theinflationdispersionintheeuroareawaslargelydrivenbydiferencesinenergyinflation,reflectingdifferenceintheenergymixandinthesourcesofimportedenergy,aswellassupportmeasuresimplementedinthevariousMemberStates.Energypricesareexpectedtodecreasein2023formostMemberStates,withthestrongestdecreaseintheMemberStatesthatfacedthesharpestincreasesin2022,notablytheNetherIandsjEstoniaandBelgium.However,thecorrectioninenergypricesremainsfarfromcomplete,withsomecountriessettocontinuerecordingpositiveenergyinflation.MoreoverJnfIationexcludingfoodandenergyremainedhighinmostMemberStatesin2023,dueinparticulartothelaggingeffectofhighenergyprices.lntheeuroarea,thecoreinflationrecordedsince2019iscomparabletothecumulatedincrease?)CoreinflationisdefinedinthisreportasoverallHICPinflationexcludingenergy,food,alholandtobac.Thelabourmarketisclosetofullemployment,andwagegrowthisgraduallyrestoringpurchasingpower.Overthelasttwoyears,unemploymentratesthroughouttheeuroareahavestabilisedatrecordlowIeveIstStandingat6.5%inSeptember,downfrom6.7%inthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.Meanwhile,employmentcontinuestoincreaseinalmostoftheMemberStates,exceptItaIyjLatvia,CroatiaandEstonia,recordingfrommodesttomoderatecontractionoftheiremploymentratesinQ22023.Employmentgrowthisparticularlystronginlowenergy-dependentsectors,notablysomeservices(SeeSection3).Despitetheslowdowninactivityinthefirstpartof2023,thelabourmarketremainsverytight,witheuro-areajobvacancyrateremainingatelevatedlevels(3%inQ22023).nthatcontext,wageshavesofarnotkeptpacewithinflation,whichislikelyduetoalaggedwagebargaining.In2023,thereareearlysignsofwageacceleration(seeSection2),althoughrealwagesareonlyexpectedtoreboundasoftheendof2023andrecovermoderatelyinthecourseof2024.Theeurorealeffectiveexchangeratehasappreciatedin2023dentingcostcompetitiveness.IXZLq-2Cf22.i¼ctrrtizof-fhkvuu/v-frcupar/£rycunrare/VcZ>j*cz>mcvnzSi££zyM>jZzi>vUaflafytvivvv0*vrteufe>rvu<vZurtropjjoJixcuntn;PWIleC¼jrimrvi>vt>vemU/cz5j-cz?mfeCvt*kkuvzeurtrrtt5i>vpru£zIAVeZIezJ？n×i>vXZreUIve×cv5evZ5>nn£/M*v½rSMtfCLblyfht%SbVJjUCiZV(GraPh1.4),o¼11vWm/coxM0>-(PeZervez(ice/Se4VtvS).anr4ri<5cruwfe>n/WZWzmc/VVtrWmce(>ya>Luia<yti>mwezinz；£rvte£prfeuWvcL"vLc(S¾tuv(uwtFr<uwx),TKihzle56zmew¼"rU<eZzCMrre(>t>uacroeu>-TkeZeM>0cunz>tmCioin×fM×tx-济¾曲Mt0V孑3好似心M>v(3Ar(ZV/aMiij0i>vcz>jc>mftcvHZMWtMemberw<JLj仇/aczuzforcnm5核伍叼twuC¼-ewee££zoftrVUWKlWi/(HtevOmvim52230)G%M(LsCurrentacuntcomposition,euroarea% of GDPCmPK1.4：Dempositionofthechangeintherealeffectiveexchangerate(December2019-June2023) HlCP (REERNEER) Change in NEER* Change in REER (ULC) Change in REER (HICP)OJocoCJod PUe 寸 06 Lod uaMq B 山山 B U 一 Oueuo1920212223Primary income Services excl travel Energy goods(1)5MVVSUe:Afterasharpfallin2022,currentaccountbalanceshaverebounded,easingconcernsaboutshorttermrisks.Tke-i>vMCMK>0rtA/energyfcUz*vtzle(ram/of-odtjwhuvivQrtZ3(uefe>n/i>vZurrtcuntn-i/v222.人¼tteorddbxz2teZ<>i>vCtMTcz>6emtx%XZzenergyxkZzeur*%rt0CMnatu)仅#TnUMeivZ向小依gferof2O2>(Graph13vvtv何叫3u161718MmSecondaryincomeMlTravelservicesGoodsexclenergyCUrreMa8untTheeconomicoutlookcontinuestobemarkedbymajorriskslinkedinparticulartogeopoliticaltensions.Me廿UvCruyeny5>urcenergyir(rojcta>.Svlt,vvLCci*u协W乃griz¼uvm(ufwftmv5CZ/fZ0-tw(zOM/teny叫耘痴ewuk/vp¼uAr,yMzeirzz0核ewh/MrCUV如丘rt£z>uf>iv¼epd>wtru×uyWuMz7¼zofM11xrUU1MM4<yt7rtzrtwzi>v5>n.Tbi>vftmjwotMuv>vaty½fe>rvInthelongerterm,theeuroareaeconomyfacessignificantstructuralchallenges.TKeez>pd>lcfuACIZUlz>n-emvrk吁e5iej仇以/加%皿砧札力/0*1况拆v"genc¼Cnzeezw>mu/pd>tie/叶g(zLOetOryAnkzy他以¼"y吁枷Z区Ware(SeeBox5.1y/oMiAovZ¢U*wgzxiuotjDkyforZ/CMnr勿如/枷仔叶a4u*JdnAM次好”5d>t?rvp).Te*cLlntmvliv¼fc？ni>vpd>fenLLwfKn)CyikfbrX×5m%ImWofptluzin/f%uuWapjrjZzw)<droof-pejityLon<cv/n>wfh×4wL(mkof-lkmvovixvZzeunrrtzvrtz>ver,z/iucliFvucPuu核ILbZm的Mzrrv/WMrcovjekovoiwvUtrtOMZJLjloodi*v7M×5Mrvuer,/W-¼,wttvtme£zmz>muzH-l勿sevteetve×aetw¼勿Mlen的fhjrw¼Ufc?rvre£lVCIiiVezobjcdivtPolicyimplicationsWeakergrowthin2023combinedwithpersistentinflationarypressuresunderscoretheimportanceofcontinuedconsistencybetweenmonetaryandfiscalpoficy.Tb-br(tchU>v5yh£zEiAKCepLank(EC)dwudJuhoocf-ktkfbrup&Ucyme廿vlzvWuIc/fu×EC3能心"i>vMi叼/少i>vOc4obrjjpze4tdJajczJmmtfe5C¼-5efoZw篌v2fr“"lzzn”nzcLyn.Cp&Ucyceodwt3cey廿Mzjuia£>Vtearyfiiybriuflwvb&doicr/m(ufvvcmvi>v3¼vdykvwu¼eroxijhc>cok/jLM1ortjtdm/JiMWyWWKMfWzVutFntOJdUzVtEW,叶Z0vineM%i>vy,WV6eJcz>tpzefcwryaC5%n我i*v223AM况2224,welt5pt协陶加看可zCbtffuyoj>njL-u>-u211><tM5mjluax1/邛PUWi£zi>v5>m£zMcrvtlper(££IZVUli>iFv(3)tz>45%Mf(20220*wt2.100.aPruXjxeyjuWie×IKVeimvmd¼应vv*tzrjuLdzdyiyj0d>iicr5<ppd>rf-G6<wvA(ZZz<ee>v¼>tun/Thelabourmarkethasprovenresilientsofarandwageshavereactedmoderatelytotheinflationsurgebutareexpectedtoaccelerate.ThzZ晔#-3MDIq必加PUWfc>evnwtojbyvyIAVOnZJLiA£m>tmej-TkeZ59nU>ur-togcrwvfactoryUfvm(>urpAijjulvc×r¾uleCinrGd>urh0zwujrtzojikilLlev¼Mr协inme×fMzU>urfor%i*v0rfu>urHVr仇FPV应LMZLtbdWHAArkpd>tuxeArtzMzat4/i>vhr¾erPe4fifllurULrkZ,VVWte/A*vUyU>rvi>v26?22.On2OX5i(r0vrez<vLm"pn0M/j-dWftoiiPurCIMipd>wrforwork£r丘CZ>umMcWvU)(ett>rvkv¼uvi>vIWfourfar4zmu÷w/yZaLi>v(WTw¢rto5/MAveZfc>emtw>rztimct-doi)?TWImKtALv¾*tzeeceXz协rez>vr<wfZzOyJft%Ume/Jeelx<jv6k/MMr0vuZ(Z½rUu以叼wtr如wrto¾G>vttc>e£ZjnX<n*jLof-NoefovayhajoMy5t1uCcz？meivC*Z/IZWi4M4>m£/CZTu*fThetighteningofmonetarypolicycallsforacarefulmonitoringotrisksinthefinancialsector.TMZzm%blnzrezi>vuerefMOCC<m<uvy应ofjuwLHww>tXeurtrILVeZtQIujCd?wcrtdi-SLoateeenrwwIAvezM×wkeecudi>vc>tmrlvvKrtru/wc/oyVr-asrhvvhre×dk43pvv(Erpe<uv6ww>urn<,2023可.SeVtra4emrvtfj)vdzda>falLivrtLej¼"CCi*v2023,wti¼tumMi½6i/WCAyVAez>m*iCcul/r2Abcz>muuBtgkzFVw加eMK>*i4<bguakivzWzmc>M-xtr0nZrll留大件比次zfwVVtlC¼-上咨SCr%M6aLjnmMi>v¼mwkM×rkrnAywCtardiz>w-hn/fiaclatCMtrmc成竹办(的”讥如Ter>on次0JhovwktcvIeiyvv>wvWOVI(aWl¾kkvuyd2>y/u<2(izpd>feMLtMzrairiec>rtewryoia4iJKZwke0*0×¼muaLeactjcJHighenergycostsandinflation,togetherwithgeopoliticaldevelopments,underlinetheneedtosupporttheeuroarea,scompetitiveness.TMzZitAmMy/毋外sggivZzZtjo-rtzvczwpArtz廿gLob>u¼e<Szvvcv(zUxnxrrk应以协丸妙izwz>rv(>v仇e×CZcZ吁un>'¢irzvThze×Ckhe×iM5Umu>vtx×fnlezpbnu<££z吁Cn£gPifern£jzifvpn££ztvXCZveiK>u<vcz?ImfuImXuforJArVeneyoodMAV/抄for<AZalbit£CbydJUUftoJifuCiaergypricesThi3协OZctAjDo4wvof-fhz×rdzcvzcz>mecvn/of5>me×cz>t>urL/v-t-v/eun>-rtezr,SIA以3viAnevo*vi>v忸击gc如MZeuSNat5if>uu>vJWiy0>-eCtAx6>e£zmz>mtz/uol£Lia££(EiAroPeVOtwVtn2230)lKez(zM-em½hzurt>%czmfiv*vewilt处%/abilibj-fcr-jmojrodbfwttjju<uui4r4wvctoh)(/Sipf%>rInVe仅泄V供以立Z小/p11A%fc0>-阳M族BZ%Mirim.ACa)Tdj(Jj>¼dyi>w(zmDmijffziven£juLr/JjmA处avi>vZHfcmUzt£zMytlujZ/Leuc>Kzm/pd>iuycv5fWrt>dtAetwtj0JihWfhwrovz/险侦八侬envtnnwm-/rcruL协加C时invem0>c>mpv>£inMprvft/ez5eet?TScifiMjyjIzVuuCi/ur/Mri*vfkCopiLUkz>*vVVtm(WpzuuzmxvCzcz>majea£££抄z×dLffartfi>r吁fieforfhcirizvmyPOLICYCHALLENGESRELATEDTOHIGHINFLATION2FISCALANDMONETARYPOU"MXPersistentlyhighinflationdynamicscontinuetorequirefiscalandmonetarypolicytoworkintandem.Afttrkl5Mppd>rv/6aL51H££adotdtnZCCMD-工Qctiir/ixvCnyU?TVPnTmPeQ5ii>vpdECBem)<%4¼/OnzXJe-evrMenof-/ieme4artjLeiZlAAV/协P(Ay,5闷wtyMe¼¼zh*ury5utecoxMyf(JuLiyJdtirtMihakenergyppf%>rfbrov>vMmrSMtz×Cforafcr用aU比UWZM必夕欣KmMl他Zzkk>lebu?m/AHhzzre物OZrJULdyforfAt>lU/om#wv/u抄CZ？nnMeKCeof-livt>forKMonetarypolicyTheECBhasrespondedtothehighinflationshockwiththefastest-everincreaseinpolicyratessincethecreationofthemonetaryunion./“2?21,LnUzm/¼rzn7twWvy(ww(cvdMfceekofCCMD-Iq-ftWC由叱Oya必华啊oj/Oeed£mi>v-M×wakjof-RMiA/aZJDvapjj(JknunzSMii>vJtAIy7D22.i枷0EC以汉涉lieyaMxhof-45O(wisp<*5vtr15wzm4(GmPh2.1).IAwUnAVCUrrnart/ch¼ht>nmLM/!ikLunZz2622.avCzbet*vy6rvucycles7¼EC60>"brotM,AAZMrch×2Z2jz×ECB6zmnMeX/e-0e-PtMIUrfM¼nvx>EW<erge*cFwc¼4¼FVCgVUvIe/(T?EPFiAM/5(£r£×WFWeheZPkcghmwez(APF)VVeeZC£whxe/ivJAnez222.C>4i>>WuwryPrMre曲nbbtjCjovVinUjrv5rmuvt5x×ECkvwme¼ryPCLicg»cftfo-rCw0<vjfuvCzivi>rfUr协Qre/wwofiMUfo>tv¼-Mz2.%¼eAZz5Amz<vte5ZzEC6Pu/U/wtzvwu<yf%k/VvdbheCmf沙V2.LCentralbanks'keypolicyratesinEA20UKUS60LoUCO寸ID9Z86OlCMC0寸99Z86OlCMCO6。OOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLeOJexJCJ)OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLCMeOJNCMCXIeOJ(MCMoJCMCMOJNCMCXICJCJ(MCMoJCMCJSource:0*UcfAe*vw4MALSeM*vnTheincreasesinpolicyrateshaveledtotighteningfinancialconditions.TKeZ6>mmtz?tvj/cowpoycf-borvvwiuijoyfortAZM-t>wtLcz>rpdz%fc>(NFC0*wiw¼icvconvt>in¼i>e/-d>rvAUzCerrPnilL(z%Urhzn>d¼tei>meziv2022/¢trivt*v如阳叫在3仇“勿必i*v(Graph22).7¼ec>u>i>vCZMtfeM(£/)(/协Q>i*v0Jdfyuojh,i*vpa¼mW,i*vIZWZidNvyemmu<vy加OffieGivevM×i>vZz但5女伏以0v叶iAz必碌北yMi%"M雄ILC¼lkMiM抄6(eermtnZ/z/IaILirv%zW£lUiVOVvez(*4)SovereignSPreadS一n-heeuroareahaveremainedS-aFSOfar6g.AB2rgIinezwK0?sxb-year¾sWSpvper223¾sCfv?s<?85v三s×2S0wC422、01s'守E§5Of-04>ojXzi3O3IHZPee£mt>er22J.hMLrvpW8Crf-s¼55o<§z/sss'<×lcv>×CyCX£/5%c×v<Onzs×OWx5vIZKZJUM0:ve¼5>KI×T(>ez$x5hFN×IZmerJ×<x&,z×I35VviUZdifferOenMm>ersfccHSCALPOUCYSTANCETheaggrega-eCOnMaCt-OnaryStanCe2023SUPPOrted一hereduc三*on5一nf一onI?s<FILS×&星囱OAGDP4555-6.50EXPanSonaMRemxaHonbeelesptfritsklucyhrlteewiersimtdenlateaflRRFgran-sandmucndsOthercapita-expedereINat-Ona=yfinanced一nves-ment,Nauona=y=nancedPrimaryCU=e三expend=ure>Fisca-laanceSoUnX：2024"-he三!sca-SianCe一SSe-sremainCo三ractonary3whrgeheierogene一一yacrossMembers-a-es26?23AcMnAJ<j?eMKrsF2C24、½%Of-6；PRl?sC?vv3sMmXrI?,>ezkvwtzfhzuv226JPPP?exf%urwy×Of-I-5%o5sv×G"b&,hnwl5×i>v三Mmxrs×(Graph2.4L牛G卑哥8MeVperAu×SSAlL<OrtlLS3.4DP×J£zOQ5B×BCB×u5wm0vn4rtMs2>csfcjh>rw.225(PRra44/PW§牛-、b2u4)IM0tlLyUB×-SSA52×?tLp¼Mt-eiXry-TeiCIs-VvKe¼e5XB×?AxlvF<s5?fbr¾×pi-s×OICenkibt£寺ffvC/cm¼UVFB25?e§x-Z55<FRRF¾xvEUFX8卑¼-S>-ThsxST6WkPMWieZds5B<FiI×vf(GraPh23)qmf4vz.3:EUroareaf-sca-Ss-nce-n2023Souce:ELMTjPeA*vcd>rvuvi*v2.515056.5,15.25,3.5SsOGDPCOnhaC=OnarWConsolidationCralj4v2.4：Euroareafiscalstancein2024*Nation