牛津经济研究院-英国在线零售税的经济影响（英）-2021.11-46正式版.docx

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1、OXFORDECONOMICSTHEECONOMICIMPACTOFANONLINERETAILSALESTAXINTHEUKANINDEPENDENTREPORTFORAMAZONUKNOVEMBER2020OXFORDECONOMICSABOUTOXFORDECONOMICSOxfordEconomicswasfoundedin1981asacommercialventurewithOxfordUniversitysbusinesscollegetoprovideeconomicforecastingandmodellingtoUKcompaniesandfinancialinstitut

2、ionsexpandingabroad.Sincethen,wehavebecomeoneoftheworld,sforemostindependentglobaladvisoryfirms,providingreports,forecastsandanalyticaltoolsonmorethan200countries,250industrialsectors,and7,000citiesandregions.Ourbest-in-classglobaleconomicandindustrymodelsandanalyticaltoolsgiveusanunparalleledabilit

3、ytoforecastexternalmarkettrendsandassesstheireconomic,sialandbusinessimpact.HeadquarteredinOxford,England,withregionalcentresinNewYork,London,Frankfurt,andSingapore,OxfordEconomicshasofficesacrosstheglobeinBelfast,Boston,CapeTown,Chicago,Dubai,Dublin,HongKong,LosAngeles,Melbourne,MexicoCity1Milan,Pa

4、ris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,andToronto.Weemploy400full-timestaff,includingmorethan250professionaleconomists,industryexperts,andbusinesseditors-oneofthelargestteamsofmacroeconomistsandthoughtleadershipspecialists.Ourglobalteamishighlyskilledinafullrangeofresearchtechniquesandthoughtleader

5、shipcapabilitiesfromeconometricmodelling,scenarioframing,andeconomicimpactanalysistomarketsurveys,casestudies,expertpanels,andwebanalytics.OxfordEconomicsisakeyadvisertocorporate,financialandgovernmentdecision-makersandthoughtleaders.Ourworldwideclientbasenowcomprisesover1,500internationalorganisati

6、ons,includingleadingmultinationalcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions;keygovernmentbodiesandtradeassociations;andtopuniversities,consultancies,andthinktanks.NOVEMBER2020AlldatashownintablesandchartsareOxfordEconomics,owndata,exceptwhereotherwisestatedandcitedinfootnotes,andarecopyrightOxfordEconomicsLt

7、d.ThisreportisconfidentialtoAmazonUKandmaynotbepublishedordistributedwithouttheirpriorwrittenpermission.Themodellingandresultspresentedherearebasedoninformationprovidedbythirdparties,uponwhichOxfordEconomicshasreliedinproducingitsreportandforecastsingoodfaith.Anysubsequentrevisionorupdateofthosedata

8、W川affecttheassessmentsandprojectionsshown.Todiscussthereportfurtherpleasecontact:HenryWorthington:hworthinatonOxfordEconomics4Millbank,LondonSW1P3JA,UKTel:+442039108000人OXFORDTABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary11. Introduction42. Howweassesstheimpactofanonlineretailsalestax52.1 Analyticalframework52.2 P

9、olicyassumptions62.3 Forecastconditionsin202263. Theeconomicimpactofanonlineretailsalestax93.1 Declineinonlinesales93.2 Lossinconsumerwelfareandsuppliers*margins93.3 Revenue-equivalentalternatives124. Distributionalandenvironmentalimpactsoftheonlineretailsalestax134.1 Consumerwelfareimpactbyhousehol

10、dincomedeciles134.2 Impactontheelderlyandthedisabled154.3 Impactbysizeofbusiness164.4 Regionaldistributionofwelfareandmarginlosses174.5 Indicativeemploymentlosses194.6 Environmentalimpact215. Assessmentagainsttheprinciplesoftaxpolicy236. Conclusionsandkeyfindings25Appendix 1: Modellingapproachandmet

11、hodology27Appendix 2: Sensitivityanalysis37OXFORDECONOMICSEXECUTIVESUMMARYBACKGROUNDCONTEXTANDSTUDYMOTIVATIONOn27July2020,HMTreasury(HMT)announcedacallforevidencearoundtheissueofabusinessratesreview.1ContainedwithinthisdocumentwasaconsiderationofalternativetaxbasesthatcouldraiserevenuefortheExcheque

12、rtocompensateforanyshortfallthatmightbecreatedbybusinessratesreform.Thetwooptionsspecifiedwereacapitalvaluestaxpayablebythepropertyownerandanonlinesalestax(OST).ThedocumentinvitedbusinessestorespondtotheprospectofanOST.Inthiscontext,AmazonhavecommissionedOxfordEconomicstoproduceanindependentquantita

13、tiveassessmentoftheeconomicimplicationsoftheintroductionofsuchataxintheUK.Beyondtheaggregateimplicationsforfirms,consumersandgovernmentrevenuewehavealsoassessedthepotentialenvironmental,distributional,andregionalconsequencesofanOST.ASSUMPTIONSThecallforevidencedocumentprovidednoguidanceonthestructur

14、eofanyOSTbeyondsayingitwouldbeleviedononlinesalestoUK-basedcustomersandfocusedon,salesindirectcompetitionwiththosecarriedoutthroughphysicalpremises,2ForthepurposeofthisstudywehavemadethefollowingassumptionswithregardtothescaleandscopeoftheOST. Thetaxwouldbeimposedataflatadvaloremrateof2%. Thetaxwoul

15、dapplytoallretailsales(excludingautomotiveandfuel)andtoaselectionofB2Cservices:foodtakeaway,travelandaccommodation.Thetaxisintroducedin2022duringwhichperiodsocialdistancingpoliciesnolongerapply.Themodellingresultspresentedherearenaturallydependentontheseassumptions.Detailedresultsfromsensitivityanal

16、ysisaroundtheseassumptionscanbefoundinAppendix2ofthisdocument.KEYTERMSUSEDINTHISREPORT Theeconomicanalysissetoutinthisreportmeasurestheimpactonconsumersintermsofwelfareloss.Forconsumers,welfarefrommakingapurchaseismeasuredasthedifferencebetweenthemaximumamounttheconsumeriswillingtopayforthegoodorser

17、viceandthepricethatisactuallypaid.Theimpactononlinesalesplatforms,andupstreambusinesses(collectivelyreferredtoassuppliers)ismeasuredintermsofareductionintheirmargin,whichforthepurposesofthisanalysis,isthepricereceivedforagoodorserviceandthecostofprovidingit.OXFORDECONOMICSDeadweightloss,ornetwelfare

18、loss,isthedifferencebetweentheincreaseingovernmentrevenuesandthesumoftheadverseimpactonconsumersandsuppliers.Economicconsequencesofa2%OSTWefindthatthattheintroductionofanOSTwouldraisearound1.6billioningovernmentrevenue.Theburdenofthetaxwouldbesplitbetweenconsumers,onlinesalesplatforms,andupstreambus

19、inesses.Ouranalysisshowsthatamajorityofthetax,sburdenwillmostlikelybebornebyconsumerswhocouldlosearound1.3billioninwelfareterms,whereassupplierscouldlosejustover500million. millionsFig.1.Impactofintroducinga2%OSTin2022Netwelfareloss2,0001,800-1,600_1,400-1,200-1,000-800-600-400-200-0-Suppliersmargin

20、reduction506Consumerwelfare loss1,270(deadweight loss) 206Government gain/deadweight lossWeIfareZmargin lossSource:OxfordEconomicsOverall,theincreaseingovernmentrevenuesisnotsufficienttocompensateforthecombinedlossinconsumerwelfareandsuppliers*margins.ThenetinefficienciesduetotheOSTareestimatedtobea

21、round200million(i.e.,13%oftherevenue).DistributionalandenvironmentaleffectsAnOSTwillhithouseholdsinthelowestincomedecilethehardest.OurindicativemodellingsuggeststhatthereisnoclearpatterntothedistributionalimplicationsofanOST.However,ouranalysisdidsuggestthathouseholdsinthebottomincomedecilewillsuffe

22、rthelargestdropinwelfareperpoundofdiscretionaryincome.TheOSTwillalsohavearestrictiveimpactonelderlyanddisabledpeoplethatarebecomingincreasinglyreliantononlineshoppingtopurchaseessentials.Whiletheelderlytendedtoshoplessonlinein2019comparedtoyoungerpeople,therestrictionsrelatedtotheCovid-19pandemichav

23、enudgedmanytoshopmoreonlineandhaveperhapsovercomesomeoftheinitialOXFORDECONOMICSbarrierstoonlineshopping.Thedisabledhavealsobecomeincreasinglyreliantononlineshoppinginrecentyears:theshareofthosewithdisabilityshoppingonlinehasincreasedfrom56%in2015to73%in2019andhasjumpedupto81%in2020.TheOSTisalsolike

24、lytodisproportionatelyaffecteconomicactivityinregionsoftheUKwithloweraverageincomes.ThenegativeeconomicimpactsofanOSTonconsumersandbusinessesW川befeltmostacutelyinNorthernIreland,Scotland,Wales,andtheNorthWestwithrelativelylesssevereimpactsinLondonandtheSouthWest.Intermsofjobs,anOSTislikelytohaveadis

25、proportionateimpactonregionsintheMidlands,theNorthWest,andtheNorthEast,wheredeliveryandwarehousingjobsaccountforamuchhigherproportionofregionalemployment.Wealsofindthatthetaxmighthindersmallerbusinessesfromaccessingpotentialcustomersthroughonlinechannels,potentiallystiflingtheirgrowthandreducingcomp

26、etitioninthemarket.WhenassessingtheimpactofanOSTontheeconomy,itisalsoimportanttoacknowledgethefiscalenvironmentatthetimethisreporthasbeenwritten.TheUKgovernmenthastakensignificantmeasurestosupportbusinessesandtheiremployeesinrecentmonthsandwilllooktoraiserevenueinthefuture.Thegovernmentsfiscaloption

27、swillneedtobeassessedagainstarangeofeconomicaswellasproceduralcriteria.InourassessmentoftheOSTagainsttheTreasurySelectCommitteesprinciplesoftaxation,wefoundthattheOSTisdistortiveandalsocouldpotentiallyrestrictSMEsfromcompetingintheretailmarket.Further,thedisproportionateimpactonhouseholdsinthelowest

28、incomedecileandoneconomicallyweakerregionsoftheUKaswellastherestrictiveeffectontheelderlyandthedisabledraisequestionsaboutthefairnessoftheOST.1. INTRODUCTIONBACKGROUNDIntheUKbusinessratesisataxchargedonbusinessesbasedontherentalvalueoftheirpremises.Thesystemhascomeundersignificantscrutinyinrecentyea

29、rswithcriticssuggestingthatithascontributedtothedeclineof,high-street,retail.On27July2020,HMTreasury(HMT)announcedacallforevidencearoundtheissueofabusinessratesreview.3Alongsidethedetaileddiscussionofhowthesystemmightbereformed,thisdocumentalsoraisedoptionsfortaxesthegovernmentmightintroduceto,atlea

30、stpartially,recovertherevenueshortfallthatwouldbecreatedbytheenvisagedreforms.Thetwooptionsspecifiedwereacapitalvaluestaxpayablebythepropertyownerandanonlinesalestax(OST).TheHMTdocumentinvitedbusinessestorespondtotheprospectofanOSTaspartofaconsultation.STUDYOBJECTIVESAtthetimeofwriting,objectiveevid

31、encerelatedtotheimplicationsofanOSTisscant.Moreover,thefactthatsuchataxhasnotbeenintroducedanywhereelseintheworldmeansthereisnorealavailableliteratureonwhichtodrawconclusionsaboutitslikelyconsequences.Inthiscontext,AmazoncommissionedOxfordEconomicstoproduceanindependentquantitativeassessmentoftheeco

32、nomicimplicationsoftheintroductionofsuchataxintheUK.Beyondtheaggregateimplicationsforfirms,consumersandgovernmentrevenue,wehavealsoassessedthepotentialenvironmental,distributional,andregionalconsequencesofanOST.Intheremainderofthisdocumentwedescribethefindingsfromthisresearchanddetailhowthesewerefor

33、med.2. HOWWEASSESSTHEIMPACTOFANONLINERETAILSALESTAXWemodeltheeconomicimpactoftheOSTbysimulatinghowsuppliersandconsumerswillreacttotheimpositionofthetax.Wedescribeourmethodologybrieflyinthischapter.AfulldescriptionofthemethodologyisprovidedinAppendix1.2.1ANALYTICALFRAMEWORKOurmodellingisbasedonaneste

34、dstructureasshowinFig.2below.WebeginbyestimatingtheextenttowhichtheOSTincreasesconsumerpricesintheonlinesegment(andconversely,howmuchoftheOSTisabsorbedbysuppliers).Wethenmodelhowconsumersswitchtoin-storepurchasesorswitchtobuyingdifferentproductsaltogether.Fig.2.NestedmodelstructureOnlineIn-storeCons

35、umerswill be incentivised toswitch purchases of the equivalentproduct to in-store rather than onlineOnlineOnlineIn-storeIn-storeProduct XProduct YProduct ZThe changes in prices and purchasinghabits will change the relative price ofdifferent productsSavingConsumerspendingSource:OxfordEnomicsTherevenu

36、e,welfare,andmargincalculationsarebasedonthedemandsupplyframework.Theintroductionofataxintroducesawedge,i.e.,adifferencebetweenthemarketequilibriumpriceandthepricefacedbyconsumersontheonehandandthepricereceivedbybusinessesontheotherhand.Theextenttowhichthepriceincreasesforconsumers(andconversely,dec

37、reasesforbusinesses)isdeterminedbytheextentofpass-through.Theextentofpass-throughwoulddependonthenatureofcompetitionamongretailersandbusinessesandthebargainingpowerofconsumers.Inourmodelling,weassumearangeofpass-throughestimatesbasedoneconomictheoryandareviewofvariousrelevantacademicpapers.Tomodelco

38、nsumerbehaviourfollowingtheincreaseinprices,wecombineddataononlinepurchasesfromtheONSwithestimatesofelasticitiesfromarepresentativesurveyofUKHouseholds(forwithin-productin-storevsonlineswitchingbehaviour)andvariousacademicpapers(forinter-productswitchingbehaviour).Basedonourmodelling,wequantifiedthe

39、impactoftheOSTon:OXFORDFCONQMICSGovernmentrevenue;Consumerwelfare,measuredinmonetaryterms;andSuppliersmargins.2.2 POLICYASSUMPTIONSTheHMTcallforevidencedocumentdidnotprovideanyguidanceonthestructureofanyOSTbeyondsayingitwouldbeleviedononlinesalestoUKbasedcustomersandfocusedonusalesindirectcompetitio

40、nwiththosecarriedoutthroughphysicalpremises.4ForthepurposeofthisstudywehavemadethefollowingassumptionswithregardtothescaleandscopeoftheOST.Thetaxwouldbeimposedataflatadvaloremrateof2%.Thetaxwouldapplytoallretailsales(excludingautomotiveandfuel)andtoaselectionofB2Cservices:foodtakeaway,travel,andacco

41、mmodation.Thetaxisintroducedin2022duringwhichperiodsocialdistancingpoliciesnolongerapply.Themodellingresultspresentedinchapterthreearedependentontheseassumptions.DetailedresultsfromsensitivityanalysisaroundtheseassumptionscanbefoundinAppendix2ofthisdocument.2.3 FORECASTCONDITIONSIN2022Evenbeforetheo

42、nsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,highstreetretailerswerestrugglingwithincreasingrents,growingbusinessratesbillsaswellastheincreasingpopularityofonlineshopping.Internetsalesshareoftheretailmarkethasbeensteadilytrendingupoverthelastfewyears.Thistrendhasdramaticallyacceleratedthisyear.Socialdistancingpolicies

43、tocontainthepandemicledtoasharpincreaseinboththevalueofonlineretailsalesanditsmarketshare.AsshowninFig.3,weeklyinternetsalesintheUKwerecloseto1.5billionatthebeginningof2020(20%ofallretailsales).Weeklyonlinesalesincreasedtoapeakof2.5Nllion(30%ofallretailsales)inJune2020buthavesincedeclinedto2.2billio

44、n(26%ofallretailsales)inSeptember2020consistentwiththere-openingofnon-essentialretail.There-introductionofanationalIockdowninNovembertogetherwithseasonalfactors,however,shouldseetheonlinesharereboundin2020Q4.Atthispoint,theextenttowhichthischangeinbehaviourbecomespermanentishighlyuncertain.OXFORDFCO

45、NQMICSFig.3.Onlineretailsales,2015-2020H1mnperweek%share00%20152016201720182019202000%201520162017201820192020Internetsales(left-axis)Internetshareoftotal(right-axis)Source:ONSOurforecastsarebasedonONSdataontotal(onlineandin-store)retailsalesfor2018groupedintothe10theproductcategorieslistedinFig.4.T

46、otalsaleshavebeenprojectedforwardsto2022usingin-houseconsumerspendingforecastsfortherelevantCOICOP(classificationofindividualconsumptionbypurpose)category.Toforecasttheonlineshareofretailtradeforeachproductcategory,weusedregressionanalysistoestablishthepre-COVID-19trend.Thiswasextrapolatedonto2022.T

47、oaccountforthepotentialpermanenttrendaccelerationthatmighthavebeencausedbyashiftinconsumerpreferencesduringthepandemic,wehaveassumedthathalfoftheunexplainedincreaseintheinternetshareduring2020remainedpermanent.5Research by UBS in the UK found that 71% of respondents said they would shop online ,*as

48、often or more after the Covid -19 situation improves. Based on other survey evidence, Bain estimates that between 35% and 45% of the recent increase in online sales will turn out to be permanentBasedonthisapproach,in2022,weexpecttotalonlinesalesacrosstheseproductcategorieswillbe84billionequivalentto18%ofthetotalsales(i.e.onlineandin-store).Amongthesecategories,foodandalcoholandfurnitureandhouseholdappliancesarethehighestvalueonlinemarketswithapproxim