摩根士丹利+全球银行和资产管理公司:进入伟大的未知-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_d.docx
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1、BLUEPAPERNovember19,20231000PMGMTGlobalBanks&AssetManagersIntotheGreatUnknownTwoforceswilldriveWholesaleBankstoadaptinthenextcycle:1)theendoflowerforlongerrates,and2)potentiallydivergingcapitalstandardsbetweentheUSandotherjurisdictions,benefittingnon-banksandbanksoutsidetheUS.Ourframeworkassessesthe
2、widerangeofpotentialoutcomes.OlivetWymansagloballeaderinmanagementconsultingFormoremformatQ,visitww.WyrnarOliverWymanisnotauthorizedoregulatedbythePRAQfIheFCAandisnotprovidinginvestmentadveeOlwerWymanauthorsatenotresearch8a1ystsandareneitherFOAnorFNRAregisteredOhverWymanauthorshaveOntycontributedthe
3、rexpertiseonbusinessstrategyMIhlnthereportOhVCrWymansviewsareclearlydelineatedThesecu11es11dvaluationsectionsofthisIBpOrlaretheWOrkofMorganStanleyonlyandnotOliverWymanFordisclcsuesspecificallypertainingtoOverWyman,pleaseseetheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendOfrhlSreportOhvefWymanisagloballeaderinman
4、agementconsultingRJrmorenfonmio,MSftVMWQHVefwymancomOliverWymamsnotautlwzedregulatedbythePRAortheFCAandisnotprovidingInVeSInWNadviceOliverWymanauthorsarenotresearchanalysisandareneitherFCAnorFINRAregistaed.OliverWymanauthorshaveonlycclbtted!heirexpanseonbusinessstrategy*vrthinthe刖口On5”:门Wymansviewsa
5、ecaryTheMCJMaSandalua!csectonsofthis?POrtareUwWCdQfMorganStanleyonlyandnotOlivrWymanFordisclosuresspecificallypeilqiningIoOhverWyman,pleaseseetheDisclosureSectionlocatedaftheendofthisreportMorganStanleydeesandseeks!odobusmesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchAsaesuII.nvestrsshouldbeawathatt
6、hefirmmayIiaveHconflictofImefeSN府加dfcttheObjectivrtyofMorganStanleyResearchInvestorsshouldco11sietantyoverthefinalrulesthatwillbeimplementedandthemitigatingactionsthatbankscantakeWeestimatethatrisk-weightedassets(RWA)requiredtosupporttheexistingUSwholesalebankingindustrywouldrise35%undertheproposedn
7、ewUScapitalrules,whicharemoreconservativethanglobalstandardsbutsubjecttochangeCompetitionfrominternationalbanksandnon-banksisfierceand,intheunlikelyeventthattheproposedrulespassintheircurrentform,wecouldseeupto$40BN(73%)InrevenueexitUSbanksthroughvalueshiftsandcapacityreductions.Notallthenewsforbank
8、sisbad.StructurallyhigherinterestrateswilldrivestrongerrevenuesandreturnsforbankswithsizeableTransactionBankingandSecuritiesServicesbusinesses.Inourbasecase,weprojectthatthesebusinesseswillhavegrown39%and14%respectivelybetween2O2O2O25torepresent29%oftheindustryrevenuepoolin2025vs.24%in2020.IftheUSIm
9、plementsamorepunitivecapitalregimethanreguhtorsoutsidetheUS1itwouldcreateopportunitiesforbanksintherestoftheworldtocaptureshareintheirhomemarkets,buildscaleInwholesalebanking,andclosethereturnsgapwithUSleadersMoreimportantly,structuralshiftsIntheoperatingenvironmentmayprovidethecatalystforWholesaleB
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